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Mazzicc 04-12-2013 04:14 PM

Cliffy-B Says "Deal With It"
 

Ars Technica reports on our beloved game designer's take on the whole "Deal With It"-gate incident. Cliffy-B thinks that Orth was right, we need to suck it up.

Quote:

What about situations where people might want to play a game or console in some remote location without reliable high-speed Internet? Bleszinski replies that such situations are "the edge case... the week-long vacation to the cabin is only 30 hours of not playing a game or a device thatís built for much more. Technology doesnít advance by worrying about the edge case." (Emphasis in original.)
You know, after being in business school for a year now, I agree somewhat. People keep pointing to 60% broadband penetration in the US and crying out "what about that other 40%?!" but I have a feeling that the console makers are *already* not considering that 40% and don't care about it. Market sizing takes this sort of stuff into account. Are the people without boradband the people likely to be able to *afford* a $500 game console? 188 Million people is still a pretty big market to sell to (and that's still ignoring age, employment, etc).

Korialstrazs 04-12-2013 04:31 PM

I am a pc gamer with a 360, I have had an original x-box and a 360 since their release. I spent more time on the original x-box live than the current one, and my console has not had an available cable or wireless connection for some time. I don't know why I would ever buy the next x-box if it becomes more difficult to play games on than my computer.

I do not have x-box live friends, I do not enjoy competitive gaming, I buy most games with dlc on my pc. I have not seen a use for gold other than the odd time my friend and I want to play on two systems at his place, on two tv's. Sometimes it isn't about your isp, sometimes the person just doesn't want to put their box online, or they don't have the means to.

lockwoodx 04-12-2013 04:36 PM

Cliffy's correct as usual. If you truly care about gaming then you already have broadband / a reliable internet connection. It's the same argument as backwards compatibility, because customers aren't about to buy the same games over again if they are still available on their current system of choice. The market is dictating you will soon have one less choice because those with wallets have voted.

Emabulator 04-12-2013 04:38 PM

Suck it Cliffy.

TUT 04-12-2013 04:45 PM

It's not for MS dude to decide, nor is it Cliff's. Just do it and have the market decide. So you have to ask your CEO self... "Am I ready to face the consequences if I'm wrong?"

BananaCommando 04-12-2013 04:46 PM

I can understand a lot of features shutting down when you're offline; but not being able to play games I have paid for, on a console I have paid before, because my internet is down? Fuck that.

Mazzicc 04-12-2013 04:54 PM

The point that he's making and that I see some validity in though, is that these cases are more rare than hype would lead you to believe. It is *extremely* likely that Microsoft has examined the correlation between console ownership and broadband internet, and sees that they will not be losing an appreciable amount of customers by requiring it.

Disclaimer for the remainder: these are rough calculations that I welcome sourced input on to make more accurate, but I think the more accurate we make them, the better picture it will paint and show that my estimates are conservative.

As of March 2011, there were 25 Million XBox 360 sales. Lets run some back of the envelope calculations for comparison -
Assume 1: Total US Households = 115 Million
Assume 2: 60% of households have broadband = 69 Million households with broadband (widely used internet argument)
Assume 3: 50% of those with broadband will buy a "next gen" console = 34.5 Million (wild-ass-guess)
Assume 4: 50% of those will be an Xbox = 17.25 Million (as opposed to PS4)

Those quick and highly conservative numbers show a potential market at launch to be only 30% smaller than the current market, but also keep in mind how many years it took to fill that market and how many price and hardware and special offerings that took. It's likely that Microsoft would look at these numbers and still be happy.

Now let's go a couple steps further -
Assume 5: we're pessimistic, we only get 10% of that = 1.72 Million
Assume 6: price at $500 retail (last guess I heard) = $850 Million
Assume 7: gross profit margin of 10% (reasonable to low) = $85 Million dollars
Assume 8: development cost of $50 Million (wild-ass-guess) = $35 Million profit

Pretend you're the VP of Microsoft, and a subordinate comes to you with that business plan, and also mentions that in addition to the $35 Million you'll make from console sales, you'll also be making money on every game each of those 1.72 million consoles buys. Are you going to say "no" because a few people don't have broadband?

Mazzicc 04-12-2013 04:56 PM

Also, to the mod that put in a pic, thanks. I always seem to forget that when I post news, and it's been a while ;)

Emabulator 04-12-2013 04:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mazzicc (Post 2202574)
Also, to the mod that put in a pic, thanks. I always seem to forget that when I post news, and it's been a while ;)

You're welcome. I'm the resident image ninja.

Thanks for submitting the article.

SaintBlitzkrieg 04-12-2013 04:59 PM

Time for everyone to just accept the reality that the internet is the future... Boy, who would have thought of that.

Saudade 04-12-2013 05:05 PM

I bought my 360 back when they first released them and I have NEVER had a X-Box Live subscription. I have NEVER played a multiplayer game on my 360 online and I never plan too. If what they say is true about the next x-box, I won't bother buying one. Hell, I am not all that interested in the PS4 but I can see myself picking one up when the game library picks up on it.

Spending hundreds of dollars on an online-only x-box... why bother when I have a nice PC and maybe a PS4 that I can play anytime I desire. They will be shooting themselves in the foot with this decision.

Raw 04-12-2013 05:10 PM

Of course the 40% doesn't really matter. But, what the benefit of an always-online only console for the other 60%?

wasteoid 04-12-2013 05:24 PM

There are two issues here, not one: always on internet connectivity and always on DRM. Microsoft and Cliffy-B are attempting to argue about connectivity as though that's the only issue, and some people fail to see that they are either ignorant that there are two issues (unlikely) or are purposefully arguing the one (internet connectivity) and pretending the other (DRM) doesn't exist or is a natural effect of the other. We all want always on internet, but we all do NOT want always on DRM. That is the real issue.

Judas 04-12-2013 05:31 PM

This from the loudest cry baby against used game sales revenues.

STFU already.. and deal with it.

lockwoodx 04-12-2013 05:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wasteoid (Post 2202588)
We all want always on internet, but we all do NOT want always on DRM. That is the real issue.

Honestly the real issue is a 24hr advertising stream Microsoft can charge clients for regardless if their users are active LIVE members or just console tards while making up phoney numbers about their established online user base.

BeachGaara 04-12-2013 06:16 PM

I refuse. For one reason only:

Because it doesn't need to be always-on.

It's just that simple.

firecut 04-12-2013 06:18 PM

How about this. I am never buying any product that has to do with CliffyB. Deal with that fucker.

BeachGaara 04-12-2013 06:23 PM

Also to OP:

What about the rest of the world? You can cite all the stats about broadband this and that you want but at the end of the day thats one country.

Add up the populations of the countries that aren't the US and have shitty net.

I'll put $50 on it right now:

If the Xbox....whatever has always-on and the PS4 doesn't Sony win and 3 years after launch MS furiously backpeddle on the issue trying to mend bridges. We'll see how they deal with that.

Vacatakarat 04-12-2013 06:32 PM

"Boradband" speeds in America are atrocious and depending on your provider, spotty service.

Bumbuliuz 04-12-2013 06:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BeachGaara (Post 2202598)
Also to OP:

What about the rest of the world? You can cite all the stats about broadband this and that you want but at the end of the day thats one country.

Add up the populations of the countries that aren't the US and have shitty net.

I'll put $50 on it right now:

If the Xbox....whatever has always-on and the PS4 doesn't Sony win and 3 years after launch MS furiously backpeddle on the issue trying to mend bridges. We'll see how they deal with that.

my point also, there are parts of many countries even here in Iceland that don't have dsl connection and have to rely on dial-up or ISDN.


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