WMS Blames '360 for Game Sales Decline

[Evil Avatar]

Those wacky analysts are at it again, Next Generation Online has an article online (http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2182&Itemid=2) with quotes from Wedbush Morgan Securities and analyst Michael Pachter, predicting a 3% drop in game sales in 2006. The culprit? The Xbox 360.

Once again, WMS states that Microsoft did a "phenomenal" job of marketing the console, which backfired when the people who wanted it couldn't get it. Microsoft created a sales vacuum, as the typical transitional decline of current generation software occurred, with no next-generation software being bought. Contrary to what Directions of Microsoft analyst Matt Rosoff stated, WMS believes that continuing Xbox 360 supply issues combined with an announced PS3 launch date will cause consumers to defer their interest and money away from Microsoft's console.Seems logical. I was just commenting in the Call of Duty patch thread that Microsoft has dropped the ball with the 360 in both hardware and software support.

[karak]

I am sickened by the thought of how well MS would have done with just an American launch and worry that this alone can seal the deal in the future. 3.5 million in america is better than less than a million in 3 or 4 other places(numbers probably a bit wrong) but all in all it was a sad move. I am happy with my 360, insanely. But would be happier if more people had gotten ahold of one.

[Evil Avatar]

I'm happy with the system also, it has some awesome potential, but they launched with like 12 games instead of the talked about 25 and in the three months since launch there has been only 2 titles released (and neither one something I would play much of) and there continues to be massive shortages.

The idea was to get the system in the hands of consumers before the Playstation 3 launched - and in that they have failed badly.

[Borys]

Was it technically possible to manufacture, say, 5M 360s in 2005?

If not then there's your answer Evil & the gang.

[kokyunage]

I have yet to see a single Xbox360 in a casual way (walking through the Mall, Bestbuy, Target, etc...). I bet they are losing plenty of "window shopper" money.

[Mortis]

I didn't see a problem with the launch titles, there weren't a lot but most of them were good and a few great. I do feel that that the lack of title releases since launch is disappointing.

The only area I feel they dropped the ball, and dropped it big time, is with the shortages. I did not pre-order (had planned on still playing WoW but I quit) and had to wait until later December to pick one up but I am completely satisfied with the system.

[King Drewsky]

Personally, I blame Halo2 and WoW for an overall sales decline. There are millions of gamers addicted to these two games and have been playing them continuously for over a year. To these gamers, there is no reason to buy additional games since they will continue to play Halo2 and WoW anyway. An ungodly amount of FPS shooters were released last year and Halo2 still ranks the highest on the XboxLive most played list.

[Evil Avatar]

Was it technically possible to manufacture, say, 5M 360s in 2005?

If not then there's your answer Evil & the gang.

It would have been technically possible to manufacture something in the range of 2 - 3 Million systems and launch them all in the USA, putting them in the hands of consumers and building a solid base to defend against the launch of the Playstation 3, then launch in Europe in mid to late 2006.

(To be honest, I wouldn't even have bothered with Japan until AFTER Europe, it is a lost cause.)

Lack of launch titles and the decision to launch worldwide were two major problems that they haven't been able to address since the system launch.

Don't get me wrong, I'm complaining about the process here, not complaining about the hardware. The system is cool as all hell.

[kokyunage]

To these gamers, there is no reason to buy additional games since they will continue to play Halo2 and WoW anyway. An ungodly amount of FPS shooters were released last year and Halo2 still ranks the highest on the XboxLive most played list.

Even if those players moved on they wouldn't be able to find a Xbox360.

[Evil Avatar]

Personally, I blame Halo2 and WoW for an overall sales decline. There are millions of gamers addicted to these two games and have been playing them continuously for over a year. To these gamers, there is no reason to buy additional games since they will continue to play Halo2 and WoW anyway. An ungodly amount of FPS shooters were released last year and Halo2 still ranks the highest on the XboxLive most played list.

Good point. I know a lot of casual Xbox players who still pretty much just play Halo 2.

What is a real shame is that America's Army launched the same week as the Xbox 360 and since switching over to the 360 I can't get Xbox Live working on my Xbox any more and America's Army isn't compatible with the 360.

[Borys]

Don't get me wrong, I'm complaining about the process here, not complaining about the hardware. The system is cool as all hell.

I know but in my understanding - if they could then they would. They simply couldn't overcome the technical (manufacturing, production etc.) obstacles.

[Mason]

I don't know if MS is the only crew to blame here. The only PS2 and GC hot properties are game that have been massively delayed, and details on their successors are still very sketchy.

I think 2006 could easily be a major slump of a year, on all parts. There are some solid 360 and PC titles coming, as well as FF12 and Twilight Princess, but that's about all that we have confirmed at this point.

MS is certainly contributing to the problem, but let's face it, all 3 companies have killed off their previous gen, and only MS has anything new on the shelves at this point in time.

Check out the release listings (http://www.gamerankings.com/itemrankings/newitems.asp).

[Mortis]

Personally, I blame Halo2 and WoW for an overall sales decline. There are millions of gamers addicted to these two games and have been playing them continuously for over a year. To these gamers, there is no reason to buy additional games since they will continue to play Halo2 and WoW anyway. An ungodly amount of FPS shooters were released last year and Halo2 still ranks the highest on the XboxLive most played list.

I agree with this as well. If you look at my reply right above yours I stated that I did not pre-order a 360 because I was playing WoW and assumed I would still be playing it leaving no time for 360 games. I just got tired of the spending 40+ hours a week trying to gather equipment, which already has a small chance to drop, that will only give you minor stat increases. Basically that is all there is at the end game besides the PvP. Once you have raided something numerous times it just becomes boring and tedious. It was incredibly fun overall but I am done with it.

I am having crazy fun playing things on the 360.


Note: If anyone is curious this (http://wow.allakhazam.com/profile.html?131398) is what I left WoW with.

[CrashCart]

I think 2006 could easily be a major slump of a year, on all parts. There are some solid 360 and PC titles coming, as well as FF12 and Twilight Princess, but that's about all that we have confirmed at this point.

MS is certainly contributing to the problem, but let's face it, all 3 companies have killed off their previous gen, and only MS has anything new on the shelves at this point in time.

That's fine with me. I've been one of those addicted to WoW people for the last year-ish, and I'm just slowly phasing out of it I think. I've picked up several solid titles in their greatest hits form, some sleeper hits (for example, Beyond Good and Evil), Half-Life 2 (finally), in addition to a Nintendo DS in the last couple of months. Put all of that together and I have an overwhelming amount of quality content to burn through.

I'll pick up the next-gen systems in the future, but right now I'm way behind on the current gen. A slump in the market just gives me more time to catch up. ;)

[Kirath42]

Evil-

Firstly, you may want to change "Those wacky analists are at it again..." to "Those wacky analysts are at it again..."; I hate to nitpick, but analists tend to be even wackier than analysts. I happen to be an analist myself, but have never had to go to an analyst.

Anyway, the 360 Launch may not have been where Microsoft intended it to be, both in regards to hardware supply and launch title diversity, but I don't see how you can say


The idea was to get the system in the hands of consumers before the Playstation 3 launched - and in that they have failed badly.
when PS3 has not launched. We don't even have a date for PS3 launch, much less an idea of what the launch titles may be. Roughly two and a half months after launch, they're still nowhere near what they were projecting for hardware inventories but I can safely say that the software lineup, even at 12 titles, is pretty impressive for day one availability. The delay of those titles will (hopefully) make them (individually) stronger competitors for the next three quarters before Christmas 2006, which can only help spur interest and market growth. One thing to note is that there appears to be roughly 1 to two 360 releases per week through April starting next week. That doesn't even count Arcade titles.

The hardware availability is proving to be a bigger issue though. The consoles would ideally have a retail turnaround time of about 3 business days; long enough to advertise availability but not long enough to gather dust. I sure hope they figure out how to get their inventories up; I want my friends to get their 360s...

My hope is that Sony has seen what is going on with 360 and plans to blitz- have a large inventory stock and a well diversified software offering at launch to put Microsoft to shame. Hopefully they won't do a repeat of the PS2 launch which was...well...we all remember that, so I won't go into it. :)

[KDups]

Note: If anyone is curious this is what I left the game with.

Holy hell you did spend a lot of time playing WoW. I gave up about a week after hitting 60. Unfortunately a year later and I picked it back up again. It's like quitting smoking.

There are some big games I'm really excited to play this year, and most of them are on current gen systems (i.e. FFXII, Okami, Zelda). But I have faith devs will start stepping it up on the 360. Oblivion and Fight Night 3 are a good start.

[Zanzibar]

If Sony launched in Spring, X360 would be hosed. Sony's all-but-confirmed delay to mid-to-late 2006 will only allow the X360 to gather some traction.

While I believe that this dude is right about people not spending money in anticipation of the PS3 launch, I believe that once it's realized that it's NOT gonna be spring that people may pick up X360s and start new savings stockpiles for Christmas. This is, of course, figuring that more kick-ass games come out.

But, again, the big question mark is Halo 3.

[Reanimated]

lol, what console ever launch with 25 titles and what publisher would ever launch a game in such a fucking pile?

MS and many analysts predict about a 5M console lead for the 360 by the time the PS3 hits. That seems like a good number to me, and by not selling them all in one shot at launch, they've ensured that they keep sales interest high leading up to the launch of PS3. They also have several titles spread out through the year that will help them in that endeavour. Personally, I don't see how they could have played it any better. Not to mention the fact that they could end up in an EVEN BETTER position if Sony misses manufacturing targets or comes in at a higher than expected price.

In any event, all of this moaning and doomsaying against MS is beyond premature.

[dotbomb]

I too was a WoW addict. Before that a DAoC addict. Also have been a ShadowBane addict and UO addict. Thus the true reason I skipped the last generation of consoles.

I love the 360 but it is true, when you are addicted to the MMO genre you stop playing all other games. That has to be hitting the market pretty hard.

I now have a large assortment of top quality single player games to plow through. By the time I finish enjoying this lot hopefully more xbox games will be bc and the ps3 will be in supply so I can catch up on some tastey ps2 games and enjoy the new stuff as well.

And yeah with the "troubles" MS has had with the 360 launch this type of hit is bound to be expected. Definately shaping up to being an awkward transition year.

[Mason]

That's fine with me. I've been one of those addicted to WoW people for the last year-ish, and I'm just slowly phasing out of it I think. I've picked up several solid titles in their greatest hits form, some sleeper hits (for example, Beyond Good and Evil), Half-Life 2 (finally), in addition to a Nintendo DS in the last couple of months. Put all of that together and I have an overwhelming amount of quality content to burn through.

I'll pick up the next-gen systems in the future, but right now I'm way behind on the current gen. A slump in the market just gives me more time to catch up. ;)
Heh heh, yeah there's more than enough to keep a person entertained. But the problem is that if we have a bad spring, and nothing usually gets released in the summer, hitting the bargain bin might be our only option for quite a while.

That's the funny thing about WoW, its utter lack of ambition and meaningful community makes it like the easiest MMORPG to get into and out of. After 60, you farm equipment to let you farm better equipment or smash people in the BGs, which has no real meaning and is just another way of farming equipment. You own no land or property, your guild is nothing more than a chatroom, and there's no meaningful way to fight the Horde/Alliance war.

[Sensei-X]

I'm fairly certain if anyone is to blame for any shortage it's IBM, you don't have to look very far to see how IBM has dropped the ball over and over with the GX series of processors. The G5 being an especially huge headache for Apple, and no doubt being the main reason Apple has started to move away from IBM for the supposedly greener pastures of Intel. Of course if I'm right, this doesn't bode very well for next gen gaming as a whole. IBM has their thumb in every pie and if they can't cut it when manufacturing for Microsoft alone, how can anyone expect them to handle two more lines of chips effectively.

[MosBen]

Honestly, there will never be a major console release in the future that does not have at least somewhat major shortages up front. Nearly all major consoles will launch in the Christmas window, and being that one item that everybody wants but not everyone can get creates a sales push that can carry you well into the next year. Look at every hot Christmas item for the last who knows how many years and it's always the item that people have trouble getting their hands on. Is it because the makers of Tickle Me Elmo just massively underestimated the demand? Maybe, but these guys are smart enough to know the ballpark they'll be shooting for and know that having hordes of people that want your product but quite get their hands on it *yet* can be a good thing, to a point. I do think that MS has fallen shorter than they might have liked, but they have been shipping units. I picked one up myself that was supposed to go to a pre-order, but the person didn't come into the store in time so they sold it to me.

Also, apart from wanting to be that big Christmas item, there's simply a lot of stuff to do between setting your final hardware spec and getting the thing on shelves. Again, I think MS probably could have done a bit better than they did, but I'm sure their factories are pumping out units as fast as they can.

[zipR]

Let me float an idea here:
People have a finite amount of money they can (or are willing to) spend on games. If they drop $300 (or whatever they cost -- I don't own any consoles) on hardware, that probably severely reduces what they can spend on software. Hell, I probably don't spend $300 a year on gaming period.

[Zanzibar]

Honestly, there will never be a major console release in the future that does not have at least somewhat major shortages up front. Nearly all major consoles will launch in the Christmas window, and being that one item that everybody wants but not everyone can get creates a sales push that can carry you well into the next year. Look at every hot Christmas item for the last who knows how many years and it's always the item that people have trouble getting their hands on. Is it because the makers of Tickle Me Elmo just massively underestimated the demand? Maybe, but these guys are smart enough to know the ballpark they'll be shooting for and know that having hordes of people that want your product but quite get their hands on it *yet* can be a good thing, to a point. I do think that MS has fallen shorter than they might have liked, but they have been shipping units. I picked one up myself that was supposed to go to a pre-order, but the person didn't come into the store in time so they sold it to me.

Also, apart from wanting to be that big Christmas item, there's simply a lot of stuff to do between setting your final hardware spec and getting the thing on shelves. Again, I think MS probably could have done a bit better than they did, but I'm sure their factories are pumping out units as fast as they can.

There's this inherent need to share our anticipations that really helps the 'Tickle Me Elmo' phenomenon. If you want something really bad but can't get it, you talk about it to other people. Maybe they already know about it, maybe they don't, maybe they even might know someone who CAN help them GET ONE...but the simple fact that people are talking about your product definitely helps get out some buzz about it.

[bapenguin]

I blame Starforce.

[Kelegacy]

I blame Starforce.
I suggest you hide, man. The FBI is scouring your computer as we speak, red flagging files like COLON WHORES 12 and JENNA COME LATELY.

Rule #1: No one says ill about Starforce.
Rule #2: No one says ill about Starforce.

[gojira]

i blame Bush.

[Loganrapp]

i blame Bush.

I blame Bush, too.

http://www.thefirsttwins.com/images/jenna-hail.jpg

Who the hell needs games when you can watch that?

[jwbxx]

God these guys are idiots. I guess they dont realize that this happens every year. Console cycle, once 360, ps3, and the revolution get in gear everything will go back to normal.

Most designers dont want to release anything on a inferior console when the next gen is right around the corner.

I think right now is great time to invest in video game stocks.

[Dr Quincy]

Ultimately Microsoft have achieved in nothing more than supplying a product in too few numbers at the time of launch, spread too thinly over too many regions, with sub-standard, uninspiring games which show nothing of true next generation gameplay at the cost of the current generation, the game sales for which have dropped off markedly since the 360 launch. The true success story of 2005 can only be seen in my mind as that of the next generation handhelds; the NDS and the PSP.

[Reanimated]

i blame Bush.



Agreed. This never would have happened if Bush hadn't killed Dumbledore. :(

[Cubfan]

Dumbledore died ? :( Spoiler warning, anyone?

[Steele Johnson]

I guess you could blame some of it on the 360 shortages, but the gaming industry as a whole is in an aweful slump with releasing anything worth purchasing. People are still playing WoW, BF2, Halo2, Guild Wars, and tons of other "older" games.

Games related news (about actual games) has been the same thing for the past 8 months talking about the 20-30 decent sounding games that are currently under development. This slump is burning me out. When these games finally come out, I'll probably be sick of them before I even play them. :)

[mister_slim]

MS is certainly contributing to the problem, but let's face it, all 3 companies have killed off their previous gen, and only MS has anything new on the shelves at this point in time.
GC is pretty dead, but the PS2 has quite a few quality games still coming.

[B_Money]

Evil-

Firstly, you may want to change "Those wacky analists are at it again..." to "Those wacky analysts are at it again..."; I hate to nitpick, but analists tend to be even wackier than analysts. I happen to be an analist myself, but have never had to go to an analyst.


I'm just glad it's not those crazy Analrapists.

[Reanimated]

GC is pretty dead, but the PS2 has quite a few quality games still coming.



PS2 has plenty of games coming. I for one can't wait for Grandia 3 and KH2.

Cube... haven't turned the fucker on since I finished RE4. :(

[Kelegacy]

PS2 has plenty of games coming. I for one can't wait for Grandia 3 and KH2.

Cube... haven't turned the fucker on since I finished RE4. :(
If Grandia III sucks, I'll kill someone. Seriously, I'm holding off playing any long and involved games right now because I don't want to be caught with my pants down when Grandia III hits.

I'm looking forward to this game a little too much, and if I end up being disappointed the Grandia name is dead to me. DEAD!

[Mason]

GC is pretty dead, but the PS2 has quite a few quality games still coming.
Such as? FF12, sure, even if it is worse than people are expecting it'll still be a major title. I'll accept KH2 and Grandia 3, and somebody probably cares about Tales of Legendia, even though I doubt I'll get any of them. There are 71 titles with announced releases for PS2...but then there are 51 announced titles for the XBox. Both of those lists are mostly multiplatform trash of the Super Frog Racer variety.

Is there quality I'm missing? Because a handful of middle-tier sequels aren't really making me a proud PS2 owner. But in either case, the point stands. 2006 will be an undistinguished year for the PS2. The PS3 is an unknown quantity, so no help there until we get some news. It isn't a decline as sharp as that for the Cube (Odama and Chibi-Robo and that's about it), but all the same based on the information we have, the PS3 will have to do great to keep Sony-platform game sales from declining.

189 for PC. Huh. Your guess is as good as mine there.

[easi]

What's with all the comments saying you'd rather see 3 million xboxes in the hands of clean-cut all-American gamers than us Rest of World* peeps? We're sick of playing the waiting game, I for one applaud the worldwide launch even though it failed. I'm sure next time they'll be prepared.

*euro/jap (lol australia etc)

[mister_slim]

Such as? FF12, sure, even if it is worse than people are expecting it'll still be a major title. I'll accept KH2 and Grandia 3, and somebody probably cares about Tales of Legendia, even though I doubt I'll get any of them. There are 71 titles with announced releases for PS2...but then there are 51 announced titles for the XBox. Both of those lists are mostly multiplatform trash of the Super Frog Racer variety.

Is there quality I'm missing? Because a handful of middle-tier sequels aren't really making me a proud PS2 owner. But in either case, the point stands. 2006 will be an undistinguished year for the PS2. The PS3 is an unknown quantity, so no help there until we get some news. It isn't a decline as sharp as that for the Cube (Odama and Chibi-Robo and that's about it), but all the same based on the information we have, the PS3 will have to do great to keep Sony-platform game sales from declining.
Are you backing away from your statement that the PS2 is dead?

[buzzfunk]

Ultimately Microsoft have achieved in nothing more than supplying a product in too few numbers at the time of launch, spread too thinly over too many regions, with sub-standard, uninspiring products which show nothing of true next generation gameplay at the cost of the current generation

I couldnt agree more. Its really amazes me that MS could not predict such a demand as there was no other console launch around. instead they move a couple of hundert thousand units to japan where nobody cares esp with that weak launch lineup.

I always had a feeling that this whole "quickly, launch before sony" will just backfire. I know so many people who just dont feel the 'buzz' anymore.

I'd be a real shame if MS killed off the original xbox too fast and their next gen console is DOA.

On a side note, i got my 360 last thru a friend who bought em at target in Bakersfield, CA. They had a stack of 25 premium systems and not a single person was buying em..

[Coolnut]

Ultimately Microsoft have achieved in nothing more than supplying a product in too few numbers at the time of launch, spread too thinly over too many regions, with sub-standard, uninspiring products which show nothing of true next generation gameplay at the cost of the current generation, the game sales for which have dropped off markedly since the 360 launch.

If you think that's bad, wait for the PS3.

[motor]

I been thinking about this for a while now and was thinking about starting a new thread on my idea. I think that from now on consoles should launch around the end of the summer. If you think about it, it really makes much more sense. Us, the hardcore gamers will buy it anytime of the year that it comes out, and frankly there are enough of use to suck any launch production dry. And we're also the very best marketting campaign you can have, let us wait in line when no normal person would, let us be the person who introduce people to our new console the second they walk into our houses, let us be the people who tell all our relatives that they just have to get one for little jimmy for xmas. And by that time (4-5 months latter), the production kinks will be worked our, a second batch of games that have had those crucial months of final hardware to test on will be ready and a group of vetrans will be around to provide support to all of our relatives and friends who need help getting the thing on live.

I see no down side to launching in this time frame.

As for whose to blame, obviosuly microsoft, production numbers always come down to money, if they had been willing to spend a little more on "insurance" (multiply suppliers, extra fabrication time) they wouldn't have hit the obvious snags they did. And yes, there were a lot of decent games this xmas that would have sold better if the 360 hadn't been the cool thing to get.

As for Japan, I always said, microsoft should have never even released the thing (xbox) in Japan, they would have gotten much better buzz and sales if it could only have been bought as in import product. It would have made it infinitely more hip to have.

[KDups]

Ultimately Microsoft have achieved in nothing more than supplying a product in too few numbers at the time of launch, spread too thinly over too many regions, with sub-standard, uninspiring products which show nothing of true next generation gameplay at the cost of the current generation, the game sales for which have dropped off markedly since the 360 launch. The true success story of 2005 can only be seen in my mind as that of the next generation handhelds; the NDS and the PSP.

Welcome to every other console launch save the NES and N64. Do you people get amnesia every 5 years?

[Vandenh]

Personally, I blame Halo2 and WoW for an overall sales decline.

You might have a point there. When I look at what my friends are plaing about 50% of them are playing Halo 2 and/or WoW every week. Come to think of it, I still play both games almost exclusivly. I expect only Oblivion will change that.

[Dr Quincy]

Welcome to every other console launch save the NES and N64. Do you people get amnesia every 5 years?

I thought the 360 stood out as an unusual example of an unbalanced introduction of the next generation cycle by launching so far ahead of the other rivals.

[TrackZero]

GC is pretty dead, but the PS2 has quite a few quality games still coming.

Name one that isn't a JRPG.

[Dr Quincy]

In the UK at least... Black, Psychonauts, 24: The Game, Onimusha: Dawn of Dreams, Tomb Raider: Legend, Okami, SOCOM 3, Sensible Soccer, Guitar Hero.

[justice]

PS2 has plenty of games coming. I for one can't wait for Grandia 3 and KH2.

Cube... haven't turned the fucker on since I finished RE4. :(


Grandia 3? Damn, and my ps2 just gave up the ghost.

[Kirath42]

I'm just glad it's not those crazy Analrapists.

Don't worry. It's pronounced "uh-nal-ruh-pists".

:D

[Borys]

Name one that isn't a JRPG.

Black
MGS3:Substinence

and probably half a dozen more

[Ailer]

Don't worry. It's pronounced "uh-nal-ruh-pists".

:D
Why the fuck did they cancel my show! :mad:

[PantherModern]

I have yet to see a single Xbox360 in a casual way (walking through the Mall, Bestbuy, Target, etc...). I bet they are losing plenty of "window shopper" money.


I've seen 360's "at large" several times since Christmas. That is how I got mine, actually.

[Kelegacy]

Name one that isn't a JRPG.
Dirge of Cerberus!

I haven't looked at the release schedule, but yes, right now mostly JRPGs are the high-profile releases for the PS2 that are exclusive to the console. You'll still get Tomb Raider, Black, and some of the others, but those will appear on other consoles as well.

[PantherModern]

In the UK at least... Black, Psychonauts, 24: The Game, Onimusha: Dawn of Dreams, Tomb Raider: Legend, Okami, SOCOM 3, Sensible Soccer, Guitar Hero.


Oooh. I forgot about 24: The Game. The new season is totally kicking ass, and playing Jack Bauer sounds like oh so much fun.

[Stormwatcher]

I hope that the 24h game is good, but I feel that it will probably suck. Can't really know yet, though. I'm waiting for MGS3:Again, Black (which means a lot, I don't care much for console FPS), the JRPGs, and maybe I'll finally buy guitar-very-expensive-hero.

I just bought my PS2, though, so that means that I have 5yrs of very good games to go through... And I've had the cube for one year, so I also have amny games to play there. No shortage of gaming for me.

[Dr Quincy]

The PlayStation 2 really does have a very impressive back catalogue. It's been a good generation by all accounts.

[mister_slim]

Name one that isn't a JRPG.
Well, there's Sega's new Shenmue-like game, called Like A Dragon I believe. Tourist Trophy.

Speaking of JRPGs, I'm going to go way out on a limb and say I think Rogue Galaxy will be the best PS2 RPG period.