Japanese Analyst Predicts Bright Future for Revolution

[score]

From Moz La Punk (http://mozlapunk.web-log.nl):

A senior analyst of the Daiwa Institute of Research, Eiji Maeda has spoken to gaming magazine Famitsu and as it turns out the outlook is generally quite positive concerning Nintendo's new console, codenamed Revolution. In the interview, he discussed that the PS3 would be priced no less than around $350 and that the Revolution would be priced no higher than around $250. This pretty much has validated the general consensus of the gaming community in believing the supposed rumored price points. Also he pointed out that the Revolution may find great success in this generation because of "its innovation and unique controller".
Read More (http://mozlapunk.web-log.nl/log/4795562)

There are also rumours that more Nintendo information will be revealed by the Regginator himself on February 9th at D.I.C.E. (http://mozlapunk.web-log.nl/log/4795535) Not much more than a week to go (I hope it's juicy whatever they reveal...).

[alienchild]

I love how this newspost has a huge "Fuck you, Scott Miller!" gloom over it.

[fushi]

I love how this newspost has a huge "Fuck you, Scott Miller!" gloom over it.
Not to be Mr. Obvious, but:
1) Analysts have been wrong before (it's actually rather rare that their predictions about the gaming industry come true :) )
2) Developers have been wrong before
3) Japan != USA

That said, I think (and hope) Maeda is right.

[boratika]

Well I think it will very well in Japan. Very well.

I have no guess how it will do in the rest of the world.

Just my two cents.

[easi]

Now to sit and wait for the Quite Racist brigade to paint this as "diabolical nationalist Japs all in it together".

[thecrazyd]

Those diabolical nationalist Japs are all in it together. We need another war to shake them up a bit.

Just kidding.

[Nessus]

That's my general feeling.

The Rev will do significantly better than the GameCube in Japan and if everything goes just right for Nintendo they could rival Sony in Japan, but in North America and the rest of the world I think they'll remain in 3rd.

The 360 so far seems to be doing even worse than the original Xbox in Japan and even if things pick up due to some exclusive Japanese RPGs I doubt it'll do much better than the Xbox did.

[Jazzercide]

If Revolution rivaled Sony in Japan, then wouldn't they get the majority of Japanese developer support? And doesn't that matter everywhere, not just Japan?

PS2 had the worst graphics this gen, cost more or as much, and it won. Because of the Japanese support or what?

[baz]

If Revolution rivaled Sony in Japan, then wouldn't they get the majority of Japanese developer support? And doesn't that matter everywhere, not just Japan?

PS2 had the worst graphics this gen, cost more or as much, and it won. Because of the Japanese support or what?

Because of better marketing... and a pretty kick arse game library as well.

[Jazzercide]

I'm saying that the "kick arse game library" is the result of Japanese developer support, and that if Nintendo found themselves ahead in Japan, it would be support for them.

Only the Sony published games are intrinsicly on the Sony systems, and the rest just worked out that way 2 generations.

Am I wrong here? I don't pretend to have the final answers, but this is what real analysing looks like imo.

[RMan]

Am I wrong here?
No, that's a fair assessment, but for now we have little idea what the quantity of developer support for each system will be, much less the quality. Each company is going to tell us theirs is strong, but I’d trust none of them (even if they try to be honest, their perspective will be limited), we’ll pretty much have to wait for the developer’s fruits to know how much developer support they got. I’m all for saying the Revolution will rock, but even I’m getting bored with the guesswork from these analysts. I think at this point if I was going to listen to any analyst, I’d need to hear their predictions for the PS1 vs N64, PS2 vs Xbox, and DS vs PSP. If they were remotely accurate on those, I’d listen, but if they didn’t have predictions then they’re likely too green to be worth listening to, and if they were wrong, then I just don’t care much what they say. Frankly, I’d say with the Revolution and it’s unprecedented features, this generation is the hardest to predict. I’m still betting on the Revolution, but I’m not betting more than my pride :).

[Wonka]

If Revolution rivaled Sony in Japan, then wouldn't they get the majority of Japanese developer support? And doesn't that matter everywhere, not just Japan?

PS2 had the worst graphics this gen, cost more or as much, and it won. Because of the Japanese support or what?

I thought that it "won" primarily because of the following three reasons:

1) PS2 was the uncontested hands down favorite going into the next generation (so it picked up a MASSIVE early lead even as it launched 1st). (And before everyone comes out of the woodwork to correct me, yes I KNOW that the Dreamcast launched 1st. But it was never really a contender as after it launched NO new titles came out for it. By which I mean that the business leaders who decide what games do and don't get MADE recognized that Sega did not have enough cash on hand to FINISH the job of having another console, and so they threw their non-Sony cahs into Nintendo and MS... Many older gamers rooted for the Dreamcast, but the decision was out of their hands...

2) PS2 became the early home to the Grand Theft Auto series. They extended their near monopoly of this franchise into a threepeat success.

3) Because of their larger initial install base, and the fact that they had dominated the earlier generation, Sony was able to convince the people who make decisions about what games get made (EA, ATVI etc) that they were hands down the only platform that really mattered. I believe the phrase they used was that "the console wars are already over" or somesuch.

The point is, it's not what country your console or your games come from. It's what the publishers think will sell that decides who wins the console wars each generation... Because ultimately, these people have to decide what projects get made and for what platforms a couple years ahead of time.

I always hear people talk about how huge of a market Japan as if it were the only market that matters... Japan IS a large market for games. But North America is actually the largest market for games in the world by far. Also, North America (and Europe) are still growing as a marketplaces for games, while Japan has been in a sort of games recession the past several years. Could it be that there is little room for revenue growth in the games saturated island nation???

[Zeal]

If the Revolution is really $250, people will just go ahead and put the extra money in to get a PS3 or 360. Well, In America, that is. I can't answer for the crazy Japanese consumers.

[thecrazyd]

If the Revolution is really $250, people will just go ahead and put the extra money in to get a PS3 or 360. Well, In America, that is. I can't answer for the crazy Japanese consumers.
I miss the good old days when you would back up your idiotic assertions. Nowadays, you just say something retarded then run off.

[xxBlackCrossxx]

ha. <------

[bone_matrix]

If the Revolution is really $250, people will just go ahead and put the extra money in to get a PS3 or 360. Well, In America, that is. I can't answer for the crazy Japanese consumers.


But people can pick up a Revolution and 3 games for the same price as just the 360 and (possibly) the PS3. If people don't have a lot of money, that sounds like a deal.

[bboy]

Those diabolical nationalist Japs are all in it together. We need another war to shake them up a bit.

Just kidding.


You're racist comments = comedy gold?

/grow up.

[Okamura_Takashi]

I actually got a unique perspective on the Sony vs. Nintendo war the other day from an industry veteran here.

His take was that up until the Playstation, Nintendo was the king but it was also very ruthless with its systems. It wouldn't allow third-parties to develop games for the N64 if they weren't big companies or in favor with Nintendo. They did this by not releasing any sort of middleware and small companies don't have the resources to develop a game from the complete bottom up.

However, Sony came into the game with the Playstation and a complete set of middleware along with it. Plus, they welcomed any developer to make games for their system. That's why you saw a huge shift in the industry towards Sony.

Sony didn't continue the middleware with the PS2 which saw some developer discontent but since they were all locked into the PS1 they stayed on with Sony. Nintendo tried to make the Gamecube appeal to developers by providing middleware and easy to use hardware but it was a little too late.

Now, the PS3 is here and with it comes middleware provided by Sony again. Maybe they will get back into good favor with developers this round...

[thecrazyd]

You're racist comments = comedy gold?

/grow up.
I was just responding to the post right before mine. Learn to read.

[fushi]

stuff
Good point. Sony definitely needs to get their act together for the coming generation, otherwise they might suffer a Nintendo-like fall from grace.

[boratika]

like fushi said: stuff
I think one of the most important factors about the rev is that Iwata is in charge now.

Yamauchi=mean
Iwata=nice

Just to oversimplify a bit. But I do think this will make a huge difference to how things have played out in the past.

[Okamura_Takashi]

I think one of the most important factors about the rev is that Iwata is in charge now.

Yamauchi=mean
Iwata=nice

Just to oversimplify a bit. But I do think this will make a huge difference to how things have played out in the past.

Yeah, I personally think that the Revolution is going to kick some ass when it comes out. The industry (at least here in Japan) is seeing a huge split between the casual gamer and the hardcore gamer. The hardcore gamer is the one that buys the Xbox360 and the casual gamer is the one that buys the DS. With the DS selling units and games like there's no tomorrow I think that it is proof that there are way more people not willing to spend $400 on a console and $80 on games when they can get something more fun for $120 and $40 for games. The Xbox360 just isn't appealing to kids, women and retirees who make up a large chunk of the casual gamer demographic.

Now the US is a different market...

[RMan]

It wouldn't allow third-parties to develop games for the N64 if they weren't big companies or in favor with Nintendo.
Yea, their ego was crazy big. They actually were demanding that cross platform games have some unique game feature that didn't exist on other platforms. That policy really didn't last long, but the fact it was there at all indicates just how big their head was. At the time I hated them, but I think now that what happened to them was good, I'm just not sure they'd be making the kinds of cool and gutsy decisions they are now if it wasn't for getting kicked in the teeth and reminded that they weren't the automatic and eternal kings of gaming.