Ten PS3 Predictions for 2006

[Phanto]

http://www.dailygame.net/news/archives/005177.php

3. Blu Ray out of the gate. Sony's going to just have to eat the costs if they want market penetration, and they sure as hell don't want to lose any market share by sticking with DVD when they are betting the farm on Blu Ray.
I will only said this: If most of these predictions come true and I'm sure that they will, it would justify the amount of secrecy right now with the PS3 since E3.

Discuss...

[Meusli]

Here comes the Lyncing Party.

[Cool AN]

Some of that sounds reasonable, but some of it also sounds crazy.

[Morratut]

And a bonus #11...the price...$300 US. They're willing to eat big costs to make sure nobody distrupts their licensing income, which is where the fat money is at. Maybe at launch it'll be higher, since they can get early adopters to pay just about anyting to be "first", but it won't stay that way long. Anything they can do to get Microsoft to hemmorage money on Xbox, theyll do, knowing full well, at some point - Microsoft investors will push for horrifying cost cuts ( = low produc quality), a change in product direction, or just kill the product entirely. I admit, killing the Xbox line entirely is something that probably would never happen, but who's to say they won't just license the tech out to someone else, like 3DO was trying to do, and get out of the game entirely. Or, maybe they'll license the console to someone else, then just build more first party games, instead of the direction they are in now, which is building consoles and making only a few games.


Intresting read.

For me the above prediction is the strangest. I don't think Sony is in the position to try and force MS to hemmorage money. MS can play that game a lot longer than Sony.

MS knows whats at stake here. MS are in for the long haul.

If Sony brings out a product that is equal or better than the 360 then thats the best strategy of all.

So come on Sony. Show us what ya got :cool:

[lost]

Most of those seem pretty sensible and if there are a few sneaky hardware cuts then that may explain the silence.

Even as a Sony fan though I don't think they can push Microsoft out of the game. To be honest they probably see them as their true competitor now, not Nintendo and to that end just want to battle on with them.

They would fucking love to take out iTunes though. Let's face it if you can flick on your console and manage your medias easily over your multiple Sony products your going to rather than turn to Apple.

[JazGalaxy]

that starts our reasonable and becomes ridiculous the further down you read. The one about "disgruntled Xbox employees flee to Sony because they wan't to work on an amazing machine!!!" or whatever sounds straight from the mouth of thta insane gasbag Ken Kutaragi.

If the PS3 cost 300 I will video myself eating a hat and post it here. I'm serious.

[Silversmith]

I think sony is able to keep pricing around $300-400. Look at the PSP, everyone thought that the hardware is going to cost $400-500. They are able to keep cost low due to most the parts comming from themselves. Even cell and blue-ray is cobranded and won't cost much to them. On the other hand the first Blue ray drive is $1800 vs $400 for hd-dvd which does say somthing about price cuts.

[DingBat]

Console fanbois really, really scare me.

[mister_slim]

I need a new signature. That's good enough.

Anyway, some of that is just common sense and some of it is speculation with some really unlikely sourcing. Interesting nonetheless.

[Busted_Astromech]

The author does, you know, at the start state that he's just pulling these out of the air.

[bjornbarspingvinen]

Can you say ; a fanboy predicts PS3 bs...

"10. Sony steals away some Xbox Live staff, because frankly, that's the best part of the Xbox "experience." Some staffers, tired of Microsoft taking the Xbox from "cool" to "corporate" and disgusted with the whole MTV'ing of their product will defect to Sony in hopes of "just building a damned good game system." "


I bet he drooled and hallucinated while typing that ....

:D HAHAAHA

[drakkarim]

i think sony is completely clueless as to what to do in this day and age. they're like a child with ADD.

[Tia]

Wow, the bar for news in Evil Avatar drops rapidly. So can I post ten predicition based on being, well, no one special, and get it to be quoted as news? I mean seriously, what he said doesn't even make sense.

As for his number 10 prediction... if any, these excutive will move to Nintendo, surely not Sony.

But really... meh, we need more real news :P

[Balthasar]

Of all the predictions, #10 is probably the shakiest. While I can definitely see them not launching their online service until a year after launch (people here at EA really overrate how popular services like Live! are), I don't see them opening up an office in Redmond (I don't see how that location is advantageous for them at all) or actively trying to steal Microsoft employees. On the other hand, Microsoft has engaged in that activity with other companies, so I guess it's not completely far-fetched that Sony may try to hire some people to help with their online service. I do agree it would be in Sony's best interest to get a service like iTunes up, with downloadable video content of some sort in addition to music. And hopefully not (but likely) with copy-protection that prevents one from converting their video into a format that can be used on a video iPod.

[Balthasar]

Wow, the bar for news in Evil Avatar drops rapidly. So can I post ten predicition based on being, well, no one special, and get it to be quoted as news? I mean seriously, what he said doesn't even make sense.
Most of the predictions actually made a lot of sense, but I would agree it's not technically news.

[DarkEternal]

Some interesting speculation. I especially agree that Sony will drop lots of features off the PS3 and release it at around $400. $300 seems really low to me, but there's no way they could compete with a console that's much higher than what's already out there.

[NoName]

While it's not news in the sense it's just some random guy's thoughts, *most* of them are more believable than the analysts random guesses, which is considered news.

Oh well, I now have something to hope for, a $300 dollar PS3 system. That'd be a fun video to watch, exclusive for EA :D.

[thegameguru]

worst predictions ever..

Its simply not economically feasible for Sony to try and play a "burning" money game with Microsoft..

A simple look at cash reserves would answer that.

After reading that why even bother looking at anything else the author pontificates?

[Tia]

While it's not news in the sense it's just some random guy's thoughts, *most* of them are more believable than the analysts random guesses, which is considered news.

Oh well, I now have something to hope for, a $300 dollar PS3 system. That'd be a fun video to watch, exclusive for EA :D.

They are more beleivable because you agree with them, not because they are actually more correct. It is like that with any prediction. But beside the point, seriously, this is just no news.

[Abash Alarmist]

While Sony can't outlast Microsoft in the money burning game in the long run, they can do it for a show amount of time while they bulster up their next product that could be cheaper (PS4?)

[Opty]

10. makes no sense, why would Microsoft game employees in Redmond defect to Sony in California when Nintendo is--almost quite literally--across the street? Especially when Microsoft pays more. The rest of the predictions are common sense except for 11, which is just "oh god I hope this is true!!!" more than "This will be true". Microsoft's got a huge boot in the door (at least in America) and they're not about to pull back for anyone, not Nintendo, and definitely not Sony.

[bean19]

Most of the predictions actually made a lot of sense, but I would agree it's not technically news.

I only found one thing to bicker about, but I may be misunderstanding him. If he is saying that the system will have Blu-Ray on every console, then I agree with him. If he is saying that games will use Blu-Ray, then I disagree.

DVD will be the game format for all games. Data transfer rate is much more important than data storage. Most games will fit on less than one DVD and thus being able to have load times be four times as fast on a DVD (if the PS3's DVD player is as fast as the X360's) will be far more important than simply doing Blu-Ray for Blu-Ray's sake. Even super huge games like UT 2007 will probably realize that having long-ass load screens will be bad compared to simply having players change out the game disc occassionally (with UT2K7 there MIGHT be a single player DVD and a multiplayer DVD, but they also might be able to get it all on one DVD.)

Otherwise, these seem like fair predictions that are based on what information we have so far.

[Wonka]

I am confused about the fact that Sony here is expected to both use BlueRay and then later also compete with BlueRay by unveiling an online service for downloading media...

I mean, Sony does own quite a few movie and music properties, but in order to have a successful online service like that, you really would want to sing up everyone... Which would mean competing with their efforts to get everyone on board with BlueRay.

It seems to me that an effort to get everyone to sing up for an online service, at the same time that they are already trying to get them to sign on with a competing BlueRay service, would really create a lot of political problems for Sony with the already jumpy recording and movie industries...

Why put such an expensive new disc technology into your machine if you are already interested in switching over to download subscription services?

[Zanzibar]

I am confused about the fact that Sony here is expected to both use BlueRay and then later also compete with BlueRay by unveiling an online service for downloading media...

I mean, Sony does own quite a few movie and music properties, but in order to have a successful online service like that, you really would want to sing up everyone... Which would mean competing with their efforts to get everyone on board with BlueRay.

It seems to me that an effort to get everyone to sing up for an online service, at the same time that they are already trying to get them to sign on with a competing BlueRay service, would really create a lot of political problems for Sony with the already jumpy recording and movie industries...

Why put such an expensive new disc technology into your machine if you are already interested in switching over to download subscription services?

Absolutely fabulous point. Never crossed my mind when I read it. Of course, that might have been because I was laughing too hard at the $300 price point.

He points out that Sony will follow MS's lead by saying 'MS dropped the HDD, so obviously we don't need one!' but then pointedly does NOT suggest that they will do the same with the price point: 'MS launched at $400, so we're just keeping up with the Joneses!'

There just is no friggin' way it'll come in at $300. Blu-Ray and Cell chip R&D costs need to be recouped SOMEHOW - there's already well over a billion spent on them so far, based on some article I read here a few months ago.

[Atorak]

...There just is no friggin' way it'll come in at $300. Blu-Ray and Cell chip R&D costs need to be recouped SOMEHOW - there's already well over a billion spent on them so far, based on some article I read here a few months ago.

Wait a minute, you actually read something factual on this site? Are you sure it wasn't blatent fanboism or speculation?!

*grabs his pitchfork*

BURN THE HERETIC AT THE STAKE!

[Furious Wang]

Prediction 13: The PS3 won't come out. Ever. Its done for. Its a Phantom. Its a 3d02. A system so overly ambitious for its time that it will never be able to meet cost/performance ratio expectations. I cite the following poll from Gamefaqs, the ultimate measure of plebian dedication:

Would you buy a PlayStation 3 at launch for $500?
Absolutely, it'll be worth any price 7.72% 2527
Probably, if there are enough good games 10.6% 3472
Maybe, but I could wait for a price drop 19.19% 6283
Probably not, it's just too much 33.5% 10971
No, I'd rather get a 360/Revolution 28.99% 9492

Those numbers are horrendous considering this previous poll:

Do you plan to buy a PlayStation 3?
Yes, I've already pre-ordered one 1.55% 1142
Yes, I'll definitely get one 35.27% 25965
Probably, unless it's a disaster 22.5% 16561
Maybe, I haven't decided yet 16.87% 12422
No, I'm not convinced I want one 23.8% 17522

Which proves that although many people want a PS3, they don't want to pay too much for it. By the time Sony is able to produce the system at a reasonable price, MS & Nintendo will have stolen the show and/or it will be time to start gearing up for the next next-generation.

More poll numbers:

Do you play to buy a Revolution?
Yes, I can hardly wait! 30.49% 23546
Probably, I'm a Nintendo fan 20.1% 15526
Maybe, it depends on the price 14.34% 11079
Probably not, but I might change my mind 15.79% 12199
No, I have no interest in it 19.27% 14884

Do you plan to buy an Xbox 360 this year?
Already have mine, thanks! 11.2% 7579
Yes, hopefully before too long 6.62% 4481
Probably, I'd like to get one 6.71% 4543
Maybe, if there's a price drop 19.62% 13284
Not now, there are no killer games I want 55.85% 37803

If you could only buy one of the three next generation consoles, which would you choose?
PlayStation 3 49.73% 39017
Revolution 33.2% 26051
Xbox 360 14.25% 11177
I don't want any of them 2.83% 2217

Based on these numbers it seems reasonable that Nintendo might actually take the top spot this gen. Which, I must say, I certainly don't have a problem with.

[Balthasar]

I am confused about the fact that Sony here is expected to both use BlueRay and then later also compete with BlueRay by unveiling an online service for downloading media..
Actually, I am of the opinion that movie studios are not at all for adopting digital content distribution to sell to their consumers. I think it would be more likely they would offer trailers than full movies. Music, on the other hand, they have (finally) adopted, and so will probably sell more of that.

[XenonCJ]

Prediction #14 - people will post more stupid and useless predictions in this thread.

[Maskatron]

Prediction #15 - Some people will believe that internet polls are actually reliable.

[Balthasar]

Prediction 13: The PS3 won't come out. Ever. Its done for. Its a Phantom. Its a 3d02. A system so overly ambitious for its time that it will never be able to meet cost/performance ratio expectations. I cite the following poll from Gamefaqs, the ultimate measure of plebian dedication:

Would you buy a PlayStation 3 at launch for $500?
Absolutely, it'll be worth any price 7.72% 2527
Probably, if there are enough good games 10.6% 3472
Maybe, but I could wait for a price drop 19.19% 6283
Probably not, it's just too much 33.5% 10971
No, I'd rather get a 360/Revolution 28.99% 9492

Those numbers are horrendous considering this previous poll:

Do you plan to buy a PlayStation 3?
Yes, I've already pre-ordered one 1.55% 1142
Yes, I'll definitely get one 35.27% 25965
Probably, unless it's a disaster 22.5% 16561
Maybe, I haven't decided yet 16.87% 12422
No, I'm not convinced I want one 23.8% 17522

Which proves ...
Actually, it doesn't prove anything. This poll is terribly flawed if one wants to draw any sort of statistically significant number or conclusion. For starters, no one can pre-order it in the first place, so where are those 1142 people coming from? Second of all, the sample is not random. These are self-selected participants. I didn't even know there was a poll about this on gamefaqs. Thirdly, the wording of those choices are far too leading. "Maybe, I could wait for a price drop" and "probably, unless it's a disaster" jump out immediately. These aren't good questions to ask if one is actually trying to determine what percentage of gamers want a PS3 at launch (really, what percentage of their readers, which cannot be considered representative of gamers across the US). They would have done well by saying "on a scale of 1 to 5, how much do you want a PS3 at launch for $500?"

Lastly, this whole debate ignores the fact that gamers are not Sony's only target audience. They want to get the same (if not more) casual, fringe game players who might be interested in getting aboard the next digital media format to use with their soon-to-be-purchased HDTV.

[The Iron Weasel]

i think sony is completely clueless as to what to do in this day and age. they're like a child with ADD.

Please don't compare my childhood to sony.

[player66]

This whole debate only makes me want to wait for the Revolution more and more. At least it brings something new to the table. Xbox 360 = Xbox Live 2.0, PS3 = Less jaggies and more polys, Revolution = Revolution (or at least I certainly hope so).

[alienchild]

hahahahaha... Sony dropping PSOne backwards comp.? not a chance.

[bone_matrix]

I think sony is able to keep pricing around $300-400. Look at the PSP, everyone thought that the hardware is going to cost $400-500. They are able to keep cost low due to most the parts comming from themselves. Even cell and blue-ray is cobranded and won't cost much to them. On the other hand the first Blue ray drive is $1800 vs $400 for hd-dvd which does say somthing about price cuts.


But it was still $250. For a handheld. That mostly plays videos. Its outrageous. I can buy my Revolution for that, or cheaper.

I do agree with you that Sony will probably launch at $400, just like Microsoft. Its cheaper than $700 or $800 or whatever ridiculous price they are saying now.

I personally like "news" like this. It allows all of us to discuss our favorite past time together. :D