Pioneer Executive Predicts Seven Million PS3s at Launch

[fitbabits]

This news (http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2073&Itemid=2) from Next Generation (http://www.next-gen.biz) arrives hot on the heels of (and seems to contradict) yesterday's news (http://www.evilavatar.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8889) that the PS3 would launch in November with a paltry one million units.

A senior executive involved in the launch of Blu-ray says PlayStation 3 may launch with as many as 7 million units.

Andy Parsons, senior vice president of Pioneer Electronics told Digital Bits, "The PS3 is going to represent an almost overnight population explosion of Blu-ray capable players. That's not something that's really happened before. The PlayStation 2 helped [DVD], because that came well down the road after DVD launched, but it did help to get a lot of players out there. But this is something new."

He added, "The PS3 is launching right at the forefront of Blu-ray. If Sony ships the kind of numbers we expect them to this year, that will provide a very rapid growth of players out there hungry for titles. We've been hearing between four and seven million units could ship."
So take your pick - you can believe an analyst or you can take the word of someone intimately involved in the whole Blu-Ray thing. Or you can sit tight and wait for an official announcement from Sony. Choices, choices.

Incidentally, please read the whole story before posting your reply - you'll likely save face by doing so. :)

[Suicidal ShiZuru]

No matter what, even if the PS3 ends up running on VHS, it will sell more than the 360 or Rev, most likely. I say this based upon how well the past Playstation systems have done, even new iterations of old harware sell well, and a totally new system, PSP.

[drakkarim]

"between four and seven million COULD ship"... the term "could" in any PR statement is an automatic disclaimer to anything following the term for the rest of the sentence.

i.e. they might as well have said "between forty and seventy million could ship" and it would have carried the same value. the only difference is they can get away with a lie/random number like 'four to seven'.

[InstaPete]

Incidentally, please read the whole story before posting your reply - you'll likely save face by doing so.

Actually, I'd prefer to make a bizarre assumption and then jump from there to a ridiculous conclusion. I mean, this IS an internet forum.

[MaiXu]

Wait ... you mean to tell me that a "a senior executive involved in the launch of Blu-ray" has nothing but good things to say about the PS3? Not like he's trying to sell you anything ...

And where does this guy actually say 7 million? It's in the headline, but I don't see a quote, while the article readily admits to it being a ballpark figure for some unknown window of time, possibly one year after launch, global or otherwise. And then he talks about UMD, as if that's some kind of high watermark. If the PS3 is to Blu-Ray as PSP is to UMD, I won't have to worry about getting a PS3 until 2009, because there won't be any games for it.

This article, and this analyst, are both garbage.

[fitbabits]

Wait ... you mean to tell me that a "a senior executive involved in the launch of Blu-ray" has nothing but good things to say about the PS3? Not like he's trying to sell you anything ...

And where does this guy actually say 7 million? It's in the headline, but I don't see a quote, while the article readily admits to it being a ballpark figure for some unknown window of time, possibly one year after launch, global or otherwise. And then he talks about UMD, as if that's some kind of high watermark. If the PS3 is to Blu-Ray as PSP is to UMD, I won't have to worry about getting a PS3 until 2009, because there won't be any games for it.

This article, and this analyst, are both garbage.
Dude, he's not an analyst. He's, and I quote, "a senior executive involved in the launch of Blu-ray". The seven million figure is in the article, as you point out. Call it some potentially positive PS3-related news and move on with your life.

[Suicidal ShiZuru]

"The PS3 is launching right at the forefront of Blu-ray. If Sony ships the kind of numbers we expect them to this year, that will provide a very rapid growth of players out there hungry for titles. We've been hearing between four and seven million units could ship."

Did you read it?

[MaiXu]

No matter what, even if the PS3 ends up running on VHS, it will sell more than the 360 or Rev, most likely. I say this based upon how well the past Playstation systems have done, even new iterations of old harware sell well, and a totally new system, PSP.

By that line of reasoning, Nintendo should be an unstoppable powerhouse, and industry leader, thanks to the NES.

Things change. The 360 coming out a full year before the PS3, the PS3's rumored high launch price, and the likelihood of amazing-looking second-gen 360 games going up against first-gen PS3 games (that, I can virtually guarantee, won't look a THING like the E3 demos) all point toward MS taking a substantial chunk on Sony's pie this generation. The PlayStation brand has succeed in the past by having amazing games (PSX, PS2) or totally unique hardware (PSP, when compared to the GBA/DS). It remains to be seen if hardware alone will be enough to sell the PS3 to the masses.

Of course, if Sony launches with some truly killer apps, well, I'll happily eat these words. I don't think we'll really know how the PS3 will fare until we see actual games running on it and what the 360 will offer alongside it.

Anyone else really anticipating the Revolution more than anything now? I kinda think I am ...

[Roc Ingersol]

The PlayStation 2 helped [DVD], because that came well down the road after DVD launched, but it did help to get a lot of players out there. But this is something new
Actually, that's ass-backwards: DVD helped the PS2.

How many people do we know who picked up the PS2 because they really wanted DVD functionality, and the PS2 doubled as a cheap DVD player?
Now how many people do we know who bought the PS2 because it was a really great gaming system, and figured 'why not?' and started buying DVDs just because the PS2 happened to play them?

The reason this is a new situation, is that there is no existing market clamor for Blu Ray or HD-DVD. At this point in the PS2s dev cycle, DVD had already taken off. The first DVD players launched 4 years before the PS2 -- Wal Mart had been stocking DVD players for a full year before the PS2. HD-DVD and Blu Ray barely exist and hardly register on anyone's radar.

Whether Blu Ray technology is going to move units is anyone's guess.
But the movie player is definitely riding the coat-tails of the gaming system this time.

[Vandenh]

7M? They better start making PS3s RIGHT NOW if they want to have that by summer.

[bapenguin]

If Sony ships the kind of numbers we expect them to this year, that will provide a very rapid growth of players out there hungry for titles. We've been hearing between four and seven million units could ship."

Right there is where the article is wrong. Maybe 10% of those people purchasing the PS3 will be "hungry for Blu-Ray titles" Not everyone that buys one cares about Blu-Ray.

[fitbabits]

Right there is where the article is wrong. Maybe 10% of those people purchasing the PS3 will be "hungry for Blu-Ray titles" Not everyone that buys one cares about Blu-Ray.
Yeah, I noticed that as well. I don't know of anyone who's hungry for either Blu-Ray or HD-DVD. The vast majority of people buying the PS3 will buy it for games.

[Nite_Moogle]

Originally Posted by Pioneer Exec
"The PS3 is launching right at the forefront of Blu-ray. If Sony ships the kind of numbers we expect them to this year, that will provide a very rapid growth of players out there hungry for titles. We've been hearing between four and seven million units could ship."
Then again his information likely comes from the same company that told us we'd have photorealism on the PS2.

[Crenor]

It is tottaly true they could launch with 7 million units.
If they launch in Summer 2007

[thecrazyd]

Then again his information likely comes from the same company that told us we'd have photorealism on the PS2.
Who, Pioneer?

[Vandenh]

"It is tottaly true they could launch with 7 million units.
If they launch in Summer 2007"

I wonder how PS3 will compare to PC games in 2007?

[Nite_Moogle]

Who, Pioneer?
I cannot find it for my life but about E3 last year Penny Arcade had a nice sketch of them putting on waders for the bullshit spewed at the Sony presentation. There was a screenshot that Tycho posted in the accompanying news post of the "concept footage" for the PS2 that was supposedly running in real time on the system and looked like something we *might* see out of ES: Oblivion.

I have a really hard time beliving that anything shown other than UT engine 3 was in real-time at E3, I think it was greatly over-powered to offset the wow factor of the 360's *actual* real-time demos, and until I see interactive game footage that looks that good I'm going to go with the established record that Sony's put out that says Bullshit Until Proven Otherwise. That includes their pricing, production, and capability.

[thecrazyd]

I cannot find it for my life but about E3 last year Penny Arcade had a nice sketch of them putting on waders for the bullshit spewed at the Sony presentation. There was a screenshot that Tycho posted in the accompanying news post of the "concept footage" for the PS2 that was supposedly running in real time on the system and looked like something we *might* see out of ES: Oblivion.

I have a really hard time beliving that anything shown other than UT engine 3 was in real-time at E3, I think it was greatly over-powered to offset the wow factor of the 360's *actual* real-time demos, and until I see interactive game footage that looks that good I'm going to go with the established record that Sony's put out that says Bullshit Until Proven Otherwise. That includes their pricing, production, and capability.
So this relates to Pioneer stating possible manufacturing numbers how? I get it, you hate Sony, but this is just an unjustified attack.

[51|RandoM]

By that line of reasoning, Nintendo should be an unstoppable powerhouse, and industry leader, thanks to the NES.


They were. It usually takes more than a generation to seriously fall behind the curve. Sony gained momentum in both of the previous generations, even if they stagnate now, they'll still ship more than microsoft does, especially worldwide(vs. US). Microsoft's online strategy is their biggest advantage, but I don't see it becoming a must have feature till the generation *after* xbox360/ps3. They'll have to avoid leaving a sour taste in everybodies mouths with any future changes to their billing/micropayment strategy. Look to that generation for Microsoft to finally pull ahead of Sony in the US.

There'd have to be some catastrophic flaw with the ps3, something that didn't show up till right after release, and something that was hellishly tough to fix, something that would require software recalls as well.

Short of something like that happening, I think Sony will sell plenty of consoles this generation. :-)

[Steele Johnson]

Yay, more predictions!! I predict that the sky will fall tomorrow.

[Nite_Moogle]

So this relates to Pioneer stating possible manufacturing numbers how? I get it, you hate Sony, but this is just an unjustified attack.
If Sony ships the kind of numbers we expect them to this year, that will provide a very rapid growth of players out there hungry for titles. We've been hearing between four and seven million units could ship."
I don't hate Sony, I hate that they blatantly lie to their customer base about the capability of their products. I don't have any delusions that they would do the same to another company who might make that information publicly available. This person is relying on numbers from Sony about how many PS3s they "might" ship.

[Cool AN]

Yay, more predictions!! I predict that the sky will fall tomorrow.

Dudddeee you are so wrong, I have proof right here that says it will fall on friday!

[thecrazyd]

I don't hate Sony, I hate that they blatantly lie to their customer base about the capability of their products. I don't have any delusions that they would do the same to another company who might make that information publicly available. This person is relying on numbers from Sony about how many PS3s they "might" ship.
How is a second hand quote from a different party about manufacturing goals they are shooting for an example of Sony "blatantly" lying to their customers? This is not a Sony rep saying "We have 7 billion units, ready to ship tomorrow!" There are plenty of valid reasons to hate Sony, and you have one of them, it is just totally irrelevant to the case at hand.

[PantherModern]

I just don't see it happening, really. We have heard exactly NIL about the PS3s manufacturing (they would have to be building them as we speak to hit that many, and they haven't even finalized the look yet), not to mention IBM cell chip shortages and the like. I think this may very be a Microsoft-esque "launch window" estimate, where the launch window is like six months. Honestly though, expect Sony to come out swinging. The PS3 and Playstation brand is really all they have going for them these days, and they can't afford to screw it up.

[Nite_Moogle]

So if I lied to you about stealing your wallet even though you know I stole it, would you let your friend trust me with your car keys?

I don't put any more stock in this information than I do in anlayst predictions. But do you really think that Sony can produce 4 million Cell chips and Blu-Ray drives AND get enough of them in PS3 hardware this year when the juggernaut that is Microsoft is still filling pre-orders eight months after they showed interactive footage on prototypes of the 360, which Sony has yet to do with the PS3? If Sony doesn't have a working prototype by the end of February, they are going to be back-stocking all the way through the holidays as their demand is going to outstrip their supply.

IIRC Gamestop started taking pre-orders in August for a November release of the 360; it's nearly February and there are still many locations that don't have their pre-orders filled. Even in the middle of frigging nowhere South Dakota where I live I've seen a single 360 for sale in Wal-Mart and it lasted less than a day. If Sony's CES form factor was a "concept" they sure as hell aren't mass producing anything yet. Microsoft was cranking out consoles for about three months before their woefully short release using an already-finalized chipset. Assuming the PS3 design is finalized and "ready togo" by E3 and they are able to go into mass production in late April or May and don't have any snafus with the Cell, a mid-summer release will give them about 5 months to ship "between 4 and 7 million units".

You'll forgive me if I have a hard time believing that. I think this exec has been fed the same line of crap that the rest of us have. 7 million Blu-Ray drives? Oh maybe, I could buy that. 7 million PS3s in calendar year 2006? I have a hard time swallowing it.

[EL CABONG]

This is crap. Sony could ship 7 mil. or they could ship 1-2 million units which sounds much more likely. why guess so far out. Besides if it costs $500 and doesn't have any good launch games besides MG4 then why not wait till their are more games and it comes down in price? The 360 launch was not perfect but it has some pretty good games PG3,Call of Duty 2 ,Condemed,DoA4 ect. I may get a ps3 but I am not real impressed so far by what I have heard and seen of what it can do.

[thecrazyd]

So if I lied to you about stealing your wallet even though you know I stole it, would you let your friend trust me with your car keys?
Alright, first off, this is indecipherable. A more astute would be me telling a friend that I was working on a way to jump over a trashcan on my bike. Now, my friend tells you this. Does this mean I can jump over a trashcan on my bike, or that I will eventually be able to? No, no it does not. Is this blatantly lying to you? Hell no, I never even told you anything, and it is not even a lie. This is what they are working on doing. They are not promissing anything. I am ignoring the rest of your post, because it totally does not relate to what we are talking about at all.

[Nite_Moogle]

Sony told us we'd have things we don't have. We know it, they know it. They stole our wallet. But Sony told the other guy (Pioneer) that they wouldn't scratch the car if they got to drive it. Should we believe the third party and loan them the car?

If Sony misleads its customers, why should we believe they don't mislead their production partners?

I am ignoring the rest of your post
Exhibit A about why arguing on the Internet is a waste of time.

[thecrazyd]

Sony told us we'd have things we don't have. We know it, they know it. They stole our wallet. But Sony told the other guy (Pioneer) that they wouldn't scratch the car if they got to drive it. Should we believe the third party and loan them the car?

If Sony misleads its customers, why should we believe they don't mislead their production partners?
Because the production partners will be making the 7 million units? Because lying to them will accomplish nothing?
Exhibit A about why arguing on the Internet is a waste of time.
Well, if you can explain why I should waste my time on that crap, than I would be glad to dispute it. As is, it is clearly not relevant in the slightest.

[Qoz]

What I do know is the fact that Sony is ALL bullshit when it comes to pre-release information. Anything from their mouth is bogus. I will not believe anything before I have the console in my hand or some first hand articles arrive from trusted websites.

Sony is the master of serving people bullshot PR.
As for the statement.. ofcourse that guy has the info from somewhere (if not he is really dumb) and even though I can't prove Sony is to blame I'm sure they are. He probably heard some Sony-smartass talking vaguely about a mega release (like they do to us regular people).
Its not fair to hate Sony if you don't have concrete evidence I know. But I believed all their lies in the past and saved me up some justified blind Sony hatred. I don't even feel bad about it - I just hate that company and it's gonna stay that way until they mature and stop fucking around with their customers.

[Mason]

You guys missed the best part of the article:

He went on to argue that PSP has proven a massive boon for UMD. "If you look at PlayStation Portable, with UMD discs, everyone is shocked at how many titles have shipped for that platform. And they're selling as well or better than the game software. So I think Sony has proven that they can drive a new video format like this with their gaming platforms.
This guy thinks it is a good thing that people are shocked by the number of UMD releases. Hint: people are shocked because no one buys them or talks about buying them. And as far as UMD selling better than PSP games...what PSP games?

This guy didn't get the memo to can to the usual Sony happy-talk until they figure out just how bad the launch will be. Wait for Ken to start things off with a tirade about the PS3 drawing computing power from your blender, then try to spin the use of the PS3 as a trojan horse for a new media format as a positive thing.

[Magnanimous Gnome]

I'm going to go with the established record that Sony's put out that says Bullshit Until Proven Otherwise. That includes their pricing, production, and capability.


So it's BUPO for Sony then?

[fitbabits]

So much Sony hatred... And all on a positive Sony thread. Sheesh.

[Scaryboy]

As a very interesting aside Satoru Iwata has just announced that America will be getting the Revolution FIRST and that it will be out by Thanksgiving.
http://www.gamespot.com/news/6142572.html

[Mason]

Because the production partners will be making the 7 million units? Because lying to them will accomplish nothing?
The number of Blu-Ray drives ordered for the PS3 and the number of units available in the three regions on their respective launch days need not be one and the same. In fact, sitting on 7 million units before you've sold the first one at retail would be flat-out insane, your accountants would have you assassinated. No, more than likely those 7 million drives will be in the first run of PS3s, only a fraction of which will be ready for launch.

The PS2 sold 3 million units during the first 5 months. It was cheaper than the PS3 will be, and it offered many people access to their first DVD player, which was a radically better format than VHS and could be used on their existing television. The PS3 will have a reasonably scary price-tag (stand-alone Blu-Ray players are going to be in the $500-1000 range through Q2 of this year, expecting to get a Blu-Ray plus a game console for less than $500 is ridiculous), and the media format it's pushing is irrelevant to most people, who still have SDTVs.

Face it, the impact of DVD on the PS2's release was a uniquely powerful event, which the coupling of Blu-Ray on the PS3 will only be a pale imitation of.

7 million PS3s is reasonable in the first 6-12 months. I don't think anyone is lying here. But it is a mischaracterization to call that the console's "launch". You get roughly a month to launch, tops. And if Sony sells 7 million PS3s in a month, the world will either be a far better or a far worse place then I've ever imagined.

[Roc Ingersol]

As a very interesting aside Satoru Iwata has just announced that America will be getting the Revolution FIRST and that it will be out by Thanksgiving.
http://www.gamespot.com/news/6142572.html
Interesting aside? Hell, that's a more interesting news item overall.

[Balthasar]

Right there is where the article is wrong. Maybe 10% of those people purchasing the PS3 will be "hungry for Blu-Ray titles" Not everyone that buys one cares about Blu-Ray.
I think by "players," he meant devices, as in "[Blu-Ray] players hungry for titles." The statement actually makes more sense that way, considering what he was talking about.

[Citizen Philip]

I think the basic idea is: if you have $500 to buy a console you either live alone and will buy it, or you're married and you need a good excuse.

"Honey! I just bought us the new DVD player, it was kind of expensive but it plays those Blue Ray things you heard about."

"Why does it say Playstation 3?"

"Umm. The regular player was already sold out and I found this one and it's only a $100 more. And as a sidebonus.. it plays games?"

"Uh-huh."

[Balthasar]

I just don't see it happening, really. We have heard exactly NIL about the PS3s manufacturing (they would have to be building them as we speak to hit that many, and they haven't even finalized the look yet), not to mention IBM cell chip shortages and the like.
On the other hand, the parts of the PS3 that probably will dictate the most about the speed in which the PS3 is manufactured is likely the cell processor, which I'm pretty certain has been in fabrication for a few months now, and the RSX chip, which I am pretty sure is not currently being manufactured. But really, I can't say that, because I am not personally aware of it, that it isn't happening. There are companies with the ability to work on products without the general public having much knowledge about it. See: Apple.

[Balthasar]

So much Sony hatred... And all on a positive Sony thread. Sheesh.
Typical day at EA.

[Balthasar]

This is crap. Sony could ship 7 mil. or they could ship 1-2 million units which sounds much more likely. why guess so far out. Besides if it costs $500 and doesn't have any good launch games besides MG4 then why not wait till their are more games and it comes down in price? The 360 launch was not perfect but it has some pretty good games PG3,Call of Duty 2 ,Condemed,DoA4 ect.
Why does your post sound like you are trying to convince people to buy a 360 over a PS3? You litterally sound like you were hired by some Microsoft street team to "spread the word." The bias in here is unreal.

[Balthasar]

But I believed all their lies in the past and saved me up some justified blind Sony hatred. I don't even feel bad about it - I just hate that company and it's gonna stay that way until they mature and stop fucking around with their customers.
How can blind hatred ever be justified?

[Zanzibar]

Hey Balth, where did you hear they weren't making the RSX yet?

[Balthasar]

This guy thinks it is a good thing that people are shocked by the number of UMD releases.
From his standpoint, it is a big positive because he looking toward the PS3 as the way to get BR drives into homes quickly. That the hardware drove the format in the PSP's case, instead of the other way around, bodes well (from his point of view).

[Balthasar]

Hey Balth, where did you hear they weren't making the RSX yet?
I can't recall. I extrapolated that from the alleged rumors that it wasn't finalized. If it's not finalized, how can it be in mass production?

Edit: It may very well have been from a news post from here. Can't recall what the source was for the life of me, though.

[Zanzibar]

I can't recall. I extrapolated that from the alleged rumors that it wasn't finalized. If it's not finalized, how can it be in mass production?

Edit: It may very well have been from a news post from here. Can't recall what the source was for the life of me, though.

Yeah, seriously, that would answer a number of questions I had. I asked a few friends who are working on PS3 titles how the hardware was treating them and all of them basically said there's nowhere near enough speed. If they were using 'final' devkits that only had temporary GPUs until the RSX arrives (but contained Cell chips and the like but perhaps no Blu-Ray drive) then that would make much more sense than the kits being REALLY final but underpowered.

[Balthasar]

Yeah, seriously, that would answer a number of questions I had. I asked a few friends who are working on PS3 titles how the hardware was treating them and all of them basically said there's nowhere near enough speed. If they were using 'final' devkits that only had temporary GPUs until the RSX arrives (but contained Cell chips and the like but perhaps no Blu-Ray drive) then that would make much more sense than the kits being REALLY final but underpowered.
That would make sense if they're complaining about speed. But again, I'm going off a slightly vague recollection of a rumor, so I'm not too certain where the truth lies.

[Kamalot]

7M? They better start making PS3s RIGHT NOW if they want to have that by summer.
That was MY thought! How on earth can they make the 7 million mark if they haven't already been making them for quite some time.

It took them a year to make and ship 10 million PSPs, a unit much smaller and less complex than a PS3.

[mister_slim]

From the interview, it appears he was expecting 4-7 million PS3s in 2006, not at launch. That's about where the PS2 was at the end of 2000. If they can launch in spring it's feasible.

[Busted_Astromech]

...except that launching in Spring is not feasible, and everyone knows it.

[mister_slim]

...except that launching in Spring is not feasible, and everyone knows it.
You don't think they can put together 700k units in five months? Why not?

[saran_js]

Manufacturing is such a business in that different companies produce different parts for a specific item. Perhaps Pioneer is producing some such item for the Blu-ray drive, and was asked by Sony to ship to them an amount in the range of 10-15 million parts over a certain time period.
Maybe this guy extrapolated the figure from his calculation of items shipped to Sony, as well as the amount for a certain shipment and came out with the figure up to launch day.

That could be why he mentioned that PS3 would launch with figures around 7 million. Not necessarily from Sony, but from a partner, and what better way to advertise your company than to mention to the masses something like this.

Basically, not breaking their NDA but deriving a figure from their orders.

Or, perhaps I am drunk here, ne.
<oopsie, is it my turn already with the dice ???>>>

[Balthasar]

You don't think they can put together 700k units in five months? Why not?
Because clearly he is a supervisor at one of Sony's chip fabrication plants.

[saran_js]

Because clearly he is a supervisor at one of Sony's chip fabrication plants.

Bwahahahhahaha... that comment is really going to get his goat.
:D

[Kamalot]

I suppose we will see, when spring comes and goes, how many PS3s are being shipped.

http://www.pressstarttoplay.net/comics/141205.png

[Balthasar]

I suppose we will see, when spring comes and goes, how many PS3s are being shipped.

http://www.pressstarttoplay.net/comics/141205.png
That comic was pretty awful, honestly.

[mister_slim]

That could be why he mentioned that PS3 would launch with figures around 7 million. Not necessarily from Sony, but from a partner, and what better way to advertise your company than to mention to the masses something like this.
Read the quote. Ignore the bad journalism. 4-7 million in 2006.