PS3 in November With Just 1M Units?

[Evil Avatar]

Those pesky analyst's are at it again, and Next Generation Online has a new article online, Analyst: PS3 in November With Just 1M Units (http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2057&Itemid=2), where one Analyst predicts that the Playstation 3 will launch this fall with just 1 Million units.

Quoted in Interactive Investor today, Evan Wilson of Pacific Crest Securities, said that PS3 will "most likely" be released in November with 1 million units, followed by a European launch in March 2007. He said the Japanese launch would also be backed by about a million units this summer.

[Citizen Philip]

How much do analysts get paid? Is it like being a meteorologist?

I'm not good at math, is that a 3 stage release over a few months: 1 stage has no specific numbers mentioned and the other 2 have a million a piece?

An analysts' job includes his ability to be absolutely wrong, so by all means get the FUD, swearing, continue console jihad against each others' choices and generally speaking get the viewed count to +2000 and +100 posts!

[NoName]

I might be missing something, but I don't see any backings for any of his claims.

Wild speculation and baseless rumors are fun!

Did you know, Sony will be selling the first round of PS3s only on Ebay? To get the console at launch you'll have to be the highest bidder!

[johnperkins21]

That's still more than Microsoft had available at their launch.

I doubt they will reach 1 million at launch, and probably won't even make it by Christmas. Although, if they do redesign that controller, I'll stand in line to pick one up.

[markster3000]

The November release would not surprise me in the least. It gives them time to prepare for North America, while not missing all the X-mas money.

1mil units, however, seems wrong. The only reason for waiting that long to put out the hardware would be to build up hardware stock. By november, they have to placate both the hardcore early adopters, and the X-mas gifters. And as we saw with the 360, it's very difficult to do both. Sony will have the advantage of staggered regional releases, and a long time for production. (Presuming release PS3s are ready for Japan in spring)

And frankly, Sony can't aford shortages at X-mas, because everyone who doesn't get a $500 PS3 can simply turn around and grab a $400 360 instead.

hmmm...

Is it just me, or do these prices start to make you think that PC gaming is getting more affordable these days?

[Reanimated]

They'll be damn lucky to have that many.

[Roc Ingersol]

Really, I'm just jealous that these 'analysts' wrangled themselves a paying gig to make shit up.

[doubtingthomas]

Does anybody know what version of the hardware kits developers have for the PS3? Do they have a final/near final build yet?

[Cool AN]

Yay for information less speculation.

[Cool AN]

Does anybody know what version of the hardware kits developers have for the PS3? Do they have a final/near final build yet?

I believe there have been four thousand final PS 3 kits send out, but I am not sure if they were the lastest.

[Balthasar]

Those pesky analyst's are at it again, and Next Generation Online has a new article online, Analyst: PS3 in November With Just 1M Units (http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2057&Itemid=2), where one Analyst predicts that the Playstation 3 will launch this fall with just 1 Million units.
This looks like FUD in sheep's wool. It must be fun getting paid just to make shit up. Imagine how much people like Reanimated would get paid for his contributions?

On the other hand, if this does turn out to be accurate in the end, then this so-called "next generation" is going to get a serious kick in the teeth. Not that most gamers are even ready for it anyway. The more I think about it, the more I like the idea of the Revolution, at least in the short term.

[phantomhitman]

Is it just me, or do these prices start to make you think that PC gaming is getting more affordable these days?
No, its really not more affordable at all. I have been holding off buying a pc for the past 2 years now because of the price of a decent pc is around the $3k mark. No, I do not build them, I buy them, with extended warranties. But hey, at least the game prices are comparable to consoles :rolleyes:

[Kelegacy]

I'll just be happy if they launch this year. I'm anticipating the Japanese release with controlled fervor. The PS3 being released elsewhere before the U.S. lets us preview what'll be in store for us, and hopefully smooth out a few bumps and blemishes. I don't care how many units are available; I wont be getting one at launch. But again, I just hope it's released this year, along with the Revolution.

[jacktion]

I believe there have been four thousand final PS 3 kits send out, but I am not sure if they were the lastest.

4000 kits? 4000? Are you smoking crack? Or maybe this is a joke? I guess you are trying to be funny. There are about 30 developers in the world that can afford to make PS3 games. So I am pretty damn sure that there aren't 4000 kits out there. That's a good one though. hehheh. good one.

[51|RandoM]

Even pretending the numbers were accurate, you'd then have to make some predictions about what they'd mean.

If you buy a pc for gaming alone, and only game on it, then it is certainly more expensive than console gaming. On the other hand, I have to have a decent PC for any number of other activities outside of gaming, so I don't feel any need to factor the pc as a gaming expense.

Look at it that way, and your PC gaming expense boils down to a video card upgrade now and then, which is rougly equivalent to buying a next gen console every now and then.

[bapenguin]

XBox 720 - 2011 - 75 units
PS4 - 2012 - 127 million units
Nintendo Anarchy - 2009 - 1 trillion units
N-Gage 2 - 2010 - 0 units

[dieselduck]

This looks like FUD in sheep's wool. It must be fun getting paid just to make shit up. Imagine how much people like Reanimated would get paid for his contributions?

On the other hand, if this does turn out to be accurate in the end, then this so-called "next generation" is going to get a serious kick in the teeth. Not that most gamers are even ready for it anyway. The more I think about it, the more I like the idea of the Revolution, at least in the short term.

as a former analyst (in CE, not games) I can say that what your getting with this is an educated guess.. likely based on Sony's ability to manufacture, the cost and complexity of the components and whatever they hear on the groud in the company. Basically - they know about 1% more than anyone else. With insiders leaking info to the internet these days and so many people working in the industry and swapping stories it's made these analysts obsolete.

That said, I think that his predictions are probably pretty decent. If memory serves me correctly Sony managed to get roughly that many PS2s to North America before the end of 2000. They did ship significantly more in Japan however, but on balance, the PS2 used more conventional components than the PS3 does and they initiated manufacturing pretty early on in the year. I would guess that there will most certainly be a massive supply shortage - Just like the PS2, the PSP, the X360 and pretty much every other piece of high-demand technology released in recent memory.

I totally agree about the Revolution incidentally. The idea of having one box in the living room that can download a huge library of classic nintendo games is pretty cool. I have a feeling that it's going to be a surprise hit just because of that fact.

[Zanzibar]

I believe there have been four thousand final PS 3 kits send out, but I am not sure if they were the lastest.

Remember the naysayers at E3 chiding the X360 games as choppy? Those were on BETA X360 kits, not final kits.

Wait 'til those naysayers see the games running on the PS3 'final' kits this E3. Unless the devs pull a rabbit out of the hat between now and then, they're not going to be anywhere near as jaw-dropping as the prerendered stuff, unless they're running at 10fps.

[Balthasar]

4000 kits? 4000? Are you smoking crack? Or maybe this is a joke? I guess you are trying to be funny. There are about 30 developers in the world that can afford to make PS3 games. So I am pretty damn sure that there aren't 4000 kits out there.
Actually, there was a post here on EA which stated that something like 3,000 dev kits have gone out since whenever they have been going out. So I am pretty damn sure you are wrong.

[dieselduck]

4000 kits? 4000? Are you smoking crack? Or maybe this is a joke? I guess you are trying to be funny. There are about 30 developers in the world that can afford to make PS3 games. So I am pretty damn sure that there aren't 4000 kits out there. That's a good one though. hehheh. good one.

At CES, Sony claimed to have 4300 kits out there. They didn't offer details on what revision those kits were, how many development houses actually got the 4300 or even what the kits were being used for. Not that its really that important. I highly doubt Sony has neglected to get dev kits out.

[Zanzibar]

At CES, Sony claimed to have 4300 kits out there. They didn't offer details on what revision those kits were, how many development houses actually got the 4300 or even what the kits were being used for.

Exactly what I was going to point out. This article (http://internetweek.cmp.com/news/175801792;jsessionid=GWRL4QA15DH02QSNDBCSKHSCJUMEK JVN) states that Stringer said 4,000 kits were out there, but DID NOT SAY they were final kits.

[Bumbuliuz]

If this is near the truth, it is sad tha Sony Still! Doesnt recognize the European market better than this. We are almost as big as the U.S market and we always seem be the last on Sony's list. This is one of so many reasons that Sony will not get my money this time.

[Cool AN]

4000 kits? 4000? Are you smoking crack? Or maybe this is a joke? I guess you are trying to be funny. There are about 30 developers in the world that can afford to make PS3 games. So I am pretty damn sure that there aren't 4000 kits out there. That's a good one though. hehheh. good one.

The same crack as the SCEA CEO is smoking. (http://www.gamespot.com/pages/video_player/popup.php?sid=6141904&pid=928399) And where the hell are you getting 30 developers from? Are you taking about that speculation, that was spread a couple of months ago? If you are then you are seriously wrong because that was more likely speculation and then any thing else, and it wasn't even from a Sony employee.

Edit: Fixed errors.

[Cool AN]

Exactly what I was going to point out. This article (http://internetweek.cmp.com/news/175801792;jsessionid=GWRL4QA15DH02QSNDBCSKHSCJUMEK JVN) states that Stringer said 4,000 kits were out there, but DID NOT SAY they were final kits.

Like I said I wasn't sure, I seemed to remember hearing it but it may just have been my imagination.

[Reanimated]

If this is near the truth, it is sad tha Sony Still! Doesnt recognize the European market better than this. We are almost as big as the U.S market and we always seem be the last on Sony's list. This is one of so many reasons that Sony will not get my money this time.




Yeah I really don't know why they treat the European territories as such an afterthought. I commend MS for having the balls to pull off a worldwide launch. It might have cost them for the short term in the US, but at least they're not treating one territory like 2nd class gamers.

[Cool AN]

If this is near the truth, it is sad tha Sony Still! Doesnt recognize the European market better than this. We are almost as big as the U.S market and we always seem be the last on Sony's list. This is one of so many reasons that Sony will not get my money this time.

I wouldn't take these analyses word as truth. Most of what they say are things that they speculate might happen, mostly from real things but in this case they haven't.

[Yeti2005]

I think it's pretty obivous that Sony will follow the pattern that they've always gone with. The PS3 will be released in Japan first (May? maybe). Later in the year the US will see a release (Nov?) and it will be in short supply. Actually regardless of when it's launched in the US I can 100% guarantee you it will be in short supply. If you want a PS3 pre-order one ONLINE whenever they announce the launch date.

[XenonCJ]

XBox 720 - 2011 - 75 units
PS4 - 2012 - 127 million units
Nintendo Anarchy - 2009 - 1 trillion units
N-Gage 2 - 2010 - 0 unitsYou forgot the Nintendo Gameboywonderswan3000 - 500 sextillion units

[El-Rodente]

this morning on Radio 1 they claimed it was to be released IN EUROPE by march...

hardly likely, so i quickly dispelled any myths.

[t3g]

Is it just me, or do these prices start to make you think that PC gaming is getting more affordable these days?

You are joking right? When you can get a PC that has the power of the 360 and a bunch of accessories (cables, controllers, etc) for $400 or less, then give us a call.

Until then, continue to pay thousands of dollars to have "the latest and greatest PC" for like 3 months or so...

[Neosho]

When you have an xbox360 that can check my e-mail, has a full keyboard, mouse, can emulate old C64 games, do renderwork, photoshop, music editing, as well as have upgradeable hard drives, the ability to swap in and out whatever components i want, upgrade ram, use the optimus keyboard, and has the ability to play videogames, give me a call.

Edit:Oh shit it needs to run mathmatica as well.

Double Edit: And i need to be able to have a compiler on there so i can code.

Triple edit: And i want to be able to play WoW on it too.

Edit: As a side note, i have a PC that's pretty good...(x64 3k, Venice core, 2 gigs of ram, asus mobo, 6600gt, + other random stuff) and it cost me about 600 to do my upgrade. I'll use this computer, maybe drop in another 6600 at some point for about 150...and it'll serve me well for probably around 3 years. Also, i can promise that my computer will get far more of my time than any console i buy. It's a time/money thing. If you pick up an xbox360, only end up spending an hour a day on it, then i'm getting a shitload more value out of my computer that i spend probably upwards of 5 hours a day on.

[GrinR]

Irregardless, the good folks over at EBGames (http://www.ebgames.com/ebx/ads/shops/playstation3/) will be ready to take your pre-order money and invest it in more ways to screw the consumer over.

* Yes, "irregardless" is a joke, for those who got a hardon to jump on it.

[Balthasar]

I would guess that there will most certainly be a massive supply shortage - Just like the PS2, the PSP, the X360 and pretty much every other piece of high-demand technology released in recent memory.
The whole thing just turns me off to the "HD Era." I don't really find myself caring about higher-resolution games, as I don't see how that actually makes the experience of playing them better.

I totally agree about the Revolution incidentally. The idea of having one box in the living room that can download a huge library of classic nintendo games is pretty cool. I have a feeling that it's going to be a surprise hit just because of that fact.
I'm more interested in being able to interact with a game world differently than I ever have before. It's got a ton of potential. I'll still give the PS3 a look, if for no other reason than the blu-ray player, but I'm pretty worn out on all the speculation from little-to-no tangible info.

[MaiXu]

Pretty duh on the whole delay to November (fitbabits and I duked it out this morning over that very topic), but how in the hell can they predict number of units available?

[Yeti2005]

The whole thing just turns me off to the "HD Era." I don't really find myself caring about higher-resolution games, as I don't see how that actually makes the experience of playing them better.


Yeah who wants to play games in a higher resolution than 640x480. :D

[Borys]

Off-topic (OR IS IT?) -

latest Edge issue cover:

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v213/marcosr/ps3.jpg

[Axiom]

If you pick up an xbox360, only end up spending an hour a day on it, then i'm getting a shitload more value out of my computer that i spend probably upwards of 5 hours a day on.

Having a great PC and a 360 is my answer. There are definitely elements of a good console experience that can never be equaled on a PC, and vice versa.

[Neosho]

See, that's where i'd disagree...i don't see the "amazing console experience" the way other people do, i guess. The only "amazing console game" that i've played lately was guitar hero, and that could be ported to a PC really easily.

Besides that, it seems like the only difference is not getting a controller. With a usb controller for my PC, i don't really see the draw of consoles.

[BenN1ce]

4000 kits? 4000? Are you smoking crack? Or maybe this is a joke? I guess you are trying to be funny. There are about 30 developers in the world that can afford to make PS3 games. So I am pretty damn sure that there aren't 4000 kits out there. That's a good one though. hehheh. good one.


You lack intelligence :D

[ColdForged]

See, that's where i'd disagree...i don't see the "amazing console experience" the way other people do, i guess. The only "amazing console game" that i've played lately was guitar hero, and that could be ported to a PC really easily.

Besides that, it seems like the only difference is not getting a controller. With a usb controller for my PC, i don't really see the draw of consoles.

Then, and please pardon my naivety, what the hell are you doing in a console thread aside from blithely flinging the tired old "well I can still do more with my PC" argument?

Back more on topic, it is quite the gig getting paid to speculate with nary a fact in sight. Personally, I predict that they'll supply roughly 60% fewer consoles than demand would warrant, sell every one of them and force riots and wailing amongst the masses pining for units. Where's my cash?

[Axiom]

See, that's where i'd disagree...i don't see the "amazing console experience" the way other people do, i guess.

Apparently not.

When I play console games on my big screen HDTV in the living room, I don't want to use a mouse or keyboard. For anything that needs those, I use the PC, still using the big screen.

And nothing on the PC can duplicate the ease of use and convience of using Xbox Live to play games/download games, trailers, and demos with the wireless controller from my couch. Anything that could even come close using a PC involves a lot more setup and time than I'm willing to put in, and it still wouldn't be as easy and convenient.

[jacktion]

Yeah, I was pretty much making up the 30 developers thing. Just trying to start something. Sorry bout that.
But doesn't 4000 kits seem really high? I mean how many development studios are there that could have one of these? 4000? Even if you give them the benefit of the doubt and say that each studio has 4, that is still 1000 studios? That sounds crazy.

I know that Activision had like 10 or so in past generations and they are like the second biggest publisher out there. Smaller houses probably have one. Each kit costs 10 to 50 thousand dollars. These things are very spendy. So if you assume they are only $10000. And there are 4000 of them, than isn't that 40 million dollars in development kits out in the world? Doesn't that seem excessive? I'm skeptical, obviously.

And since it will cost at least 10 million dollars for a studio to make a game, doesn't that limit the number of studios out there that will be doing so? Look at the 360. There are not a lot of little guys rushing to put stuff out. This is all the big boys.

What do you think?

[mrbandersnatch]

Yes, however many Sony manage at launch wont be enough. In fact, having seen how bad trying to do a global launch has been for Microsoft AND how badly the 360 has faired in Japan, I'll be very suprised if they dont put 100% of there first 1-1.5 million units into Japan while they ramp up production and only when that market is being sated, move onto the US/EU (possibly launching in the EU first given how weak the USD is!).

Whatever happens, Im crossing my fingers that games are region free and if so I'll be grabbing as many as I can for sale on ebay (which should easily pay for a Rev or 2 *grin*)

[Balthasar]

Yeah who wants to play games in a higher resolution than 640x480. :D
Who cares? I want better games. And consoles that are actually available for purchase.

[dieselduck]

When you have an xbox360 that can check my e-mail, has a full keyboard, mouse, can emulate old C64 games, do renderwork, photoshop, music editing, as well as have upgradeable hard drives, the ability to swap in and out whatever components i want, upgrade ram, use the optimus keyboard, and has the ability to play videogames, give me a call.

Edit:Oh shit it needs to run mathmatica as well.

Double Edit: And i need to be able to have a compiler on there so i can code.

Triple edit: And i want to be able to play WoW on it too.

Edit: As a side note, i have a PC that's pretty good...(x64 3k, Venice core, 2 gigs of ram, asus mobo, 6600gt, + other random stuff) and it cost me about 600 to do my upgrade. I'll use this computer, maybe drop in another 6600 at some point for about 150...and it'll serve me well for probably around 3 years. Also, i can promise that my computer will get far more of my time than any console i buy. It's a time/money thing. If you pick up an xbox360, only end up spending an hour a day on it, then i'm getting a shitload more value out of my computer that i spend probably upwards of 5 hours a day on.

I don't get it? if you're trying to argue that an xbox360 is a more versatile machine than a computer.. sure. no argument from anyone as far as I can tell.

the reasons one would opt for a console versus a new computer for video games are numerous. The unit and associated maintenance is cheaper, there are more games available and it's much easier to live with. With consoles now pumping out HD graphics, even the presentation quality is competitive.

I mean for the price of a 'killer gaming rig' - say a top-of-the-line Alienware or something.. you could buy an X360, a PS3, a few games and put a decent amount of money towards a high def tv. - in the end that fact is what's more compelling to a lot of consumers.

[Vandenh]

The analysts are probably just speculating on "the hardware isn't even done yet" news and what they see....

and that is NOTHING.

No PS3
No Games
No demos
Hell, not even cheapo Cells

Right now the whole PS3/Cell thing is a total joke and Sony better start doing something about it. How ironic is it that MS has the two most powerful consoles on the market at the same time????? I bet Sony is just waiting until they can actually make that thing without going bankrupt. (or maybe until they sold enough PSPs to offset the losses :)

[Kelegacy]

The analysts are probably just speculating on "the hardware isn't even done yet" news and what they see....

and that is NOTHING.

No PS3
No Games
No demos
Hell, not even cheapo Cells

Right now the whole PS3/Cell thing is a total joke and Sony better start doing something about it. How ironic is it that MS has the two most powerful consoles on the market at the same time????? I bet Sony is just waiting until they can actually make that thing without going bankrupt. (or maybe until they sold enough PSPs to offset the losses :)

Two most powerful consoles = Playstation 2 still wiping the floor with both. Power does not equal greatness. As I fucking found out when I bought an Xbox. If I had no PC or other consoles, maybe it would have been great, but I only play MVP 2005 on it to this day--a game I could be playing on the PS2 or PC!

[GrinR]

Two most powerful consoles = Playstation 2 still wiping the floor with both. Power does not equal greatness. As I fucking found out when I bought an Xbox. If I had no PC or other consoles, maybe it would have been great, but I only play MVP 2005 on it to this day--a game I could be playing on the PS2 or PC!

I agree with your premise, but honestly if you're only playing MVP 2005 on it you're really deliberately avoiding great Xbox titles. Jade Empire anyone?

[mister_slim]

If this were to happen, I imagine the Rev would beat the PS3 to the US and Europe.
I agree with your premise, but honestly if you're only playing MVP 2005 on it you're really deliberately avoiding great Xbox titles. Jade Empire anyone?
I think he means currently, because he's mentioned playing Jade Empire in the past. That said, recent titles for the Xbox have been pretty weak.

[Kelegacy]

Jade Empire anyone?
Aaaahh, my brain! Sarevok weeps for Bioware!

I think he means currently, because he's mentioned playing Jade Empire in the past. That said, recent titles for the Xbox have been pretty weak.

Yes, this was what I meant. Also, I bought an Xbox halfway or more into its life cycle so I had already played most of the "exclusive" PC games that are on the system and vice versa.

[inmostlight]

Yeah I really don't know why they treat the European territories as such an afterthought. I commend MS for having the balls to pull off a worldwide launch. It might have cost them for the short term in the US, but at least they're not treating one territory like 2nd class gamers.

My first guess is that it's a translation issue. It's much quicker and easier to release in America where you only need English and possibly French for Quebec. A decent European release will need the game localized for (British) English, French, German, Italian, Spanish, and possibly more.

[GrinR]

Aaaahh, my brain! Sarevok weeps for Bioware!



Yes, this was what I meant. Also, I bought an Xbox halfway or more into its life cycle so I had already played most of the "exclusive" PC games that are on the system and vice versa.

A. Agreed. Baldurs Gate series remains the most powerful CRPG of all time. For the mother fucking win, indeed.

B. Tried Mercenaries? How about Phantom Dust?

[bone_matrix]

Aaaahh, my brain! Sarevok weeps for Bioware!



Yes, this was what I meant. Also, I bought an Xbox halfway or more into its life cycle so I had already played most of the "exclusive" PC games that are on the system and vice versa.

Ghost recon 2? :D

[overdrivechao]

Irregardless, the good folks over at EBGames (http://www.ebgames.com/ebx/ads/shops/playstation3/) will be ready to take your pre-order money and invest it in more ways to screw the consumer over.

* Yes, "irregardless" is a joke, for those who got a hardon to jump on it.

Can't stop this EB bashing fest, can ya? We aren't even taking pre-orders yet. GameCrazy is. Hate them.
"Get advance notice on online PlayStation 3 pre-order opportunities!" = "We aren't taking preorders yet"

And also, we can't invest money that isn't ours. Pre-order money belongs to the consumer until the product pre-ordered is purchased.

Sorry you've had one or more bad experiences. Maybe the kids working in your town/city/strata of hell are just too lazy and incompetent to impress you.

I'd also like to know how money is being invested to screw you personally over please.

[Balthasar]

How ironic is it that MS has the two most powerful consoles on the market at the same time?????
It's only ironic when you consider that the PS2, which is perhaps the weakest of the 4, continues to sell so much better than any of them.

[overdrivechao]

It's only ironic when you consider that the PS2, which is perhaps the weakest of the 4, continues to sell so much better than any of them.

Weakest in pure power, but the best and most original content. How many of us still play "retro" games and wish they made games like that today?

We just got final December numbers yesterday from Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo and here how sales broke down. (for North America)

1> Ps2
2> PSP
3>Gamecube
4>Nintendo DS
5>Xbox
6>Gameboy Advance
7>Xbox 360

I don;t remember the exact totals for each system sold in the U.S, but PS2 was ahead of XB by 100%. Gamecube trounced it too, despite being a dead system.