Gamers Could Influence Next DVD Format

[JudasGoat]

Yet after all the jockeying by these companies, it may be the relatively low-priced video game consoles that tip the balance toward one format--or prolong the stalemate for several more years.Check out the full NY Times article here (http://news.com.com/Gamers+could+influence+next+DVD+format/2100-1041_3-6023817.html).

I first read this on Major Nelson's (http://www.majornelson.com/) blog, but it's definitely interesting. They make it sound mighty grim for HD-DVD.

[AntB]

If gamers decide the format winner, then HD-DVD lost. No ones going to buy 360's addon.

[fushi]

What a funny title.

[Cubfan]

Gamers will decide the format winner. Good ol' standard DVDs.

[Borys]

It's only a matter of time when first HD-DVD game for 360 ships.

Even Moore said "Right now it's for movies only.", emphasis on "right now" mine.

You can easily imagine some super-duper Limited eXclusive Edition of a high profile title.

[Tia]

I am still waiting for someone to explain to me how will it work.

if BR players will cost $1000
and PS3 will cost $500

Than Sony partners for the BR might be very upset. (and I think very upset is an understatement). So how is it going to work? Will they just let their partners get mad and sue them? Will they sell PS3 for $1000? Will the PS3 simply won't be able to play movies? I mean so far as it seems to me, Sony is going to piss someone off, whether it is their partners or their costumers.

Not anti Sony or anything, I am just trying to make out how this is going to work.

[Borys]

Tia, we can all see through your "not anti-Sony" bullshit. Here's a hint: you wouldn't have to assure us that you aren't anti-Sony if you truly weren't.

But I'll try to explain and point your bullshit out:

1) You don't know the PS3 price.
2) You don't know the BR players price.
3) Same thing happened before PS2 launched, the anti-Sony zealots from SEGA camp spewed crap like:

"if DVD players will cost $1000
and PS2 will cost $500"

4) Yes, people thought the PS2 will launch at $500-$800 price.
5) Same thing happened before the PSP launch. "$400! Sony is d00med!"

See?

You don't know shit yet keep posting veiled attacks.

So to sum up:

nothing is known about the PS3 price yet

It could be $299, it could be $499.
My advice? - wait and see.

[Tia]

Borys, will you ever grow up past your childish attacks? Or will you just keep being an idiot? I mean seriously? The reason I said I am not anti sony is because know morons like you make a large population of Evil Avatar. And you proved me right.

Can anyone who is a little less moron than Borys answer?

by the way, if little snot nosed idiots like you would take their own advice and "wait and see" these forum would have been more deserted than the microsoft X360 Japanese launch.

This is what people do, they discuss and estimate things.

[Dirty Harry]

Borys, will you ever grow up past your childish attacks? Or will you just keep being an idiot? I mean seriously? The reason I said I am not anti sony is because know morons like you make a large population of Evil Avatar. And you proved me right.

Can anyone who is a little less moron than Borys answer?

by the way, if little snot nosed idiots like you would take their own advice and "wait and see" these forum would have been more deserted than the microsoft X360 Japanese launch.

This is what people do, they discuss and estimate things.
I think Borys opinion is more educated than yours ever will be. Its nice to have someone that injects some common sense in these forums.

[XenonCJ]

Tia, we can all see through your "not anti-Sony" bullshit. Here's a hint: you wouldn't have to assure us that you aren't anti-Sony if you truly weren't.

But I'll try to explain and point your bullshit out:

1) You don't know the PS3 price.
2) You don't know the BR players price.
3) Same thing happened before PS2 launched, the anti-Sony zealots from SEGA camp spewed crap like:

"if DVD players will cost $1000
and PS2 will cost $500"

4) Yes, people thought the PS2 will launch at $500-$800 price.
5) Same thing happened before the PSP launch. "$400! Sony is d00med!"

See?

You don't know shit yet keep posting veiled attacks.

So to sum up:

nothing is known about the PS3 price yet

It could be $299, it could be $499.
My advice? - wait and see.Actually it's not similar at all... DVD players were out well in advance of the PS2.

The PS3 may literally be the 1st Blu-Ray player the mass market can buy.

[Meusli]

I can feel another epic argument on its way :)

[Venkman]

1) You don't know the PS3 price.
2) You don't know the BR players price.



Be nice, dude. life is too short.

1) True. but the rumblings from Sony are not good.

2) The first Blue Ray player will be $1000.

http://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/7195.cfm

This early one is $1800:
http://www.engadget.com/2006/01/04/pioneer-bdp-hd1-blu-ray-player-coming-in-may/

Blue Ray ain't cheap. yet.

If the PS3 costs $500 and will play Blu-ray, I will get one with an HDTV. Sweet Mama, it could be one heck of a deal.

But above $500, it is approaching the event horizon for gamers.

[bskeillor]

I was a very early adopter of DVD and can honestly say I have no interest in this next advancement. If the buzz on HD-DVD / Blu-Ray is that it's for movies only, then what is the point? Most movies are still done on film and aren't HD, so how much better can they look than progressive scan DVDs right now? I think the studios are licking their chops waiting for people to buy all the same movies again on a new format. If people don't buy them, then they'll just re-release the same special edition and call it new for people to buy it all over again.

[Dirty Harry]

I was a very early adopter of DVD and can honestly say I have no interest in this next advancement. If the buzz on HD-DVD / Blu-Ray is that it's for movies only, then what is the point? Most movies are still done on film and aren't HD, so how much better can they look than progressive scan DVDs right now? I think the studios are licking their chops waiting for people to buy all the same movies again on a new format. If people don't buy them, then they'll just re-release the same special edition and call it new for people to buy it all over again.
why do people always say that they need to buy all their movies again the new format. As far as i know tvs still have cable inputs so vcrs still work.

[Nadreck]

Getting back to the initial posting; historically, it's been the Porn industry that has decided the format wars. We may come up with excuses on why x format won over y, but ultimately it's all come down to porn. They're a major early adopter, and the rest of the film industry has in the past followed their lead. While I can understand hedging your bets in case it's wrong this time, you can already get HD-DVD porn.

Just because it's better (larger capacity at least), doesn't mean it'll be accepted. Case in point, Beta vs VHS (another Sony format failure).

[bapenguin]

Related article: Retailers aren't happy (http://news.com.com/Next-gen+DVD+format+war+frustrates+retailers/2100-1041_3-6023768.html?tag=nefd.top).

This format war shit is ridiculous. It's going to be a failure on all fronts. HD-DVD will be the first to die followed shortly after by Blu-Ray. There isn't going to be general population support for these formats for quite some time, and by then there will be a another more relevant format with new FEATURES that make it worthwhile for consumers to upgrade.

Ask anyone who got DVD recently what their reasons were for it. You'll get one of these answers:

1) No rewinding
2) Chapters and special features
3) Smaller format
4) Picture Quality

What is HD-DVD/Blu-Ray going to offer in that list? #4. That's it.

[Atorak]

But above $500, it is approaching the Event Horizon for gamers.

Ooo, is that going to be a Blu-Ray launch title? :)

[Borys]

Ok, I admit I acted like a bully but my points stand still.

I'm getting a little bit paranoid about this place.

[see colon]

BRD and HDDVD lack the imporivements that made DVD a successful format. DVD removed the inconvenience of rewinding tapes, gave you the ability to skip ahead by chapters, and offered the ability to have multiple audio/video tracks on a single disk. the improved quality in picture and sound were just icing on the cake for most people. history has shown repeatedly that convenience rules over quality in the consumer space. vinyl records offer a larger range of sound than cassetts, 8 tracks, MP3 (or any of the current crop of lossy compressed audio formats) or CD but all of the formats that came after it were still rediculouly successfull. the same thing happened in the video space. laserdisk was the highest quality format of it's time, but VHS was more convenient.

to me, these new high capacity video formats are more important to the movie industry than they are consumers. DVD piracy has been running ramant in the last few years, and a higher cpacity storage medium will detract casual piracy a great deal. people will be less inclined to downlaod a 30GB disk image than they are a 4GB one. writable media will be costly for the consumer.

-edit- damn you bap for stealling my thunder! :P

[XenonCJ]

Related article: Retailers aren't happy (http://news.com.com/Next-gen+DVD+format+war+frustrates+retailers/2100-1041_3-6023768.html?tag=nefd.top).

This format war shit is ridiculous. It's going to be a failure on all fronts. HD-DVD will be the first to die followed shortly after by Blu-Ray. There isn't going to be general population support for these formats for quite some time, and by then there will be a another more relevant format with new FEATURES that make it worthwhile for consumers to upgrade.

Ask anyone who got DVD recently what their reasons were for it. You'll get one of these answers:

1) No rewinding
2) Chapters and special features
3) Smaller format
4) Picture Quality

What is HD-DVD/Blu-Ray going to offer in that list? #4. That's it.Yeah well I think we will see 4 things happen that will kill DVD as we know it...

#1 New movies released 1st (weeks in advance of regular DVD) on blu-ray or hd-dvd.
#2 New movies released ONLY on blu-ray or hd-dvd.
#3 Combo Blu-Ray and HD-DVD players.
#4 Standard DVD players no longer in production.

Granted, the above will probably take about 5 to 10+ years to fully take place... But it will happen if the industry has its way.

[NoName]

to me, these new high capacity video formats are more important to the movie industry than they are consumers. DVD piracy has been running ramant in the last few years, and a higher cpacity storage medium will detract casual piracy a great deal. people will be less inclined to downlaod a 30GB disk image than they are a 4GB one. writable media will be costly for the consumer.
I agree that the movie industry think more of themselves than the consumers sometimes. And by themselves I really mean the almighty dollar.

I don't think this will stop piracy very much though. Things can be re-encoded to a much smaller (non-HD) format. Even if you do want to download a high-def version of a movie, take away unneeded audio tracks and extra "features" and the movie won't be nearly as bad to download.

[Tia]

Ok, I admit I acted like a bully but my points stand still. I'm getting a little bit paranoid about this place.

Point taken.

Never negated it. I am waiting to see what will happen. I am just intrested in speculation since i am patienltess.

Regardless I do pretty much agree with bapenguin. It appear that there were a lot more reasons to move to DVD than there are to move to HD or BR. I really hated rewinding. And I didn't get DVD till the players were $100 anyway. :P

[bean19]

1) No rewinding
2) Chapters and special features
3) Smaller format
4) Picture Quality

What is HD-DVD/Blu-Ray going to offer in that list? #4. That's it.

What? Are you saying that Blu-Ray and HD-DVD will not have chapters and special features? That seems odd. Surely you are mistaken?

I think HD-DVD will fail because the PS3 will make Blu-Ray the more available format. I think there is a market for a storage device that holds larger amounts than DVD. . . for movies (not for games - not until the BR or HD-DVD have better data transfer rates).

Still, I can only see a small number of people purchasing a PS3 for the HD movie playing capabilities. . . at least until the price is lower. Most people don't own HDTVs, and aren't planning on upgrading all that quickly. Sony will make their money on the actual Blu-Ray discs themselves rather than on the increased PS3 sales.

Also, if you own both systems, like most people here probably will, why buy a separate HD-DVD drive. . . especially when the format war seems to be so heavily in favor of Blu-Ray.

I'd sell short on Toshiba stock if I had it.

[Tia]

Bean, he meant that DVD already has chapters. So HD and BR chapters won't be anything new. Unlike VHS->DVD transition.

[see colon]

I don't think this will stop piracy very much though. Things can be re-encoded to a much smaller (non-HD) format. Even if you do want to download a high-def version of a movie, take away unneeded audio tracks and extra "features" and the movie won't be nearly as bad to download.
new copy protection schemes will take time to crack. writable media will be expensive, and no-one's going to bother taking the time to re-encode a HD movie to SD if they can just download the original SD source, or simply rent it and rip it. that gives an edge to the high capacity video formats. they'll have a clear lead in image quality compared to what pirates are offering. the poeple who spent the money on a high def player aren't going to be stockpiling SD bootlegs unless those movies aren't available in HD. and they certainly aren't going to want a movie that's been downgraded to SD from an SD source. most new DVD's are mastered that way anyway.

[captainspankypants]

Yeah well I think we will see 4 things happen that will kill DVD as we know it...

#1 New movies released 1st (weeks in advance of regular DVD) on blu-ray or hd-dvd.
#2 New movies released ONLY on blu-ray or hd-dvd.
#3 Combo Blu-Ray and HD-DVD players.
#4 Standard DVD players no longer in production.
I know you said "5 to 10 years," but I'm really not seeing the majority of this happening. No one is going to release a blu-ray or HD-DVD exclusive movie any time soon, because DVD has too large of a market share. DVD market share increased over VHS without these four points because DVD is inherently better, and just about everyone can see that without any explanation. Your average joe is going to see either format as just a more expensive DVD and blow it off.

I mean, you can still buy VCRs for christ's sake. Even my dad can see that DVD is better, and people are still hanging on to the old format. I see no way that either of these is going to take over as quickly as DVD did, unless companies do those four things, which would be commercial suicide. Can you imagine a company releasing a movie like King Kong only on a high-def format? Compare sales of that to if it were released on DVD. Not going to happen.

[bapenguin]

Yeah well I think we will see 4 things happen that will kill DVD as we know it...

#1 New movies released 1st (weeks in advance of regular DVD) on blu-ray or hd-dvd.
#2 New movies released ONLY on blu-ray or hd-dvd.
#3 Combo Blu-Ray and HD-DVD players.
#4 Standard DVD players no longer in production.

Granted, the above will probably take about 5 to 10+ years to fully take place... But it will happen if the industry has its way.

Good points, in effect the industry will bully customers into the new formats by not giving them any more choices.

[Roc Ingersol]

This isn't VHS v Beta folks, It's S VHS vs ED Beta.

[doyama]

I don't think its clear who is going to win this whole HD-DVD vs Blue Ray thing. On the one had HD-DVD has pricing on its side. HD-DVD has cheaper production costs which will be very appealing to movie studios. DVD sales are big bucks to the studios, and if they can juice us for more money because the discs are cheaper then studios will go with HD-DVD.

BluRay will eventually have the benefit of massive market penetration once the PS3 is out. In Japan, when the PS2 came out, it was actually cheaper to buy a PS2 than a DVD player if you can believe it! The PS2 helped DVD sales to catch on in Japan. It will be a compelling argument to studios if the BluRay group can say "hey there are 500,000 PS3s out there which is 500,000 potential customers for you to gouge!" Of course at the time there wasn't any competing standard so it's hard to tell how much of this effect will benefit the BluRay camp.

[dotbomb]

Wake me in 2008...

[GrinR]

This isn't VHS v Beta folks, It's S VHS vs ED Beta.

QFT .

[XenonCJ]

I know you said "5 to 10 years," but I'm really not seeing the majority of this happening. No one is going to release a blu-ray or HD-DVD exclusive movie any time soon, because DVD has too large of a market share. DVD market share increased over VHS without these four points because DVD is inherently better, and just about everyone can see that without any explanation. Your average joe is going to see either format as just a more expensive DVD and blow it off.

I mean, you can still buy VCRs for christ's sake. Even my dad can see that DVD is better, and people are still hanging on to the old format. I see no way that either of these is going to take over as quickly as DVD did, unless companies do those four things, which would be commercial suicide. Can you imagine a company releasing a movie like King Kong only on a high-def format? Compare sales of that to if it were released on DVD. Not going to happen.Well I think the point that will start selling the Blu-Ray and HD-DVD stuff 1st will be point #1, selling the HD versions a few weeks before the regualar DVD versions. Lots of people will wait, but lots of people will eventually crack...

Let's say you are a Lord of the Rings fan...

Let's say Peter Jackson makes "The Hobbit" which eventually comes out on Blu-Ray.... 1 month before it comes out on regular DVD....

Not to mention Best Buy with the "Black Eyed Peas" constantly beating it into your skull that you need some kind of HD playback ability!!!

I think you might consider a Blu-Ray player? =)

[Sl1pstream]

You can easily imagine some super-duper Limited eXclusive Edition of a high profile title.

If the USB port would be fast enough to handle an entire HD game, maybe.
Thing is, if the "next-gen" format is decided through home consoles, HD-DVD is "doomed".

[Reanimated]

I guess Borys didn't catch CES... I thought everyone already knew that entry level BR players were announced for $1000.00



Here's who will really determine the format war - the less than 1 Million people in North America that own HDTVs with compatible digital inputs.

So, in reality, the match has already been decided - DVD for the win until digital distribution hits it's stride.

[DigitalFirefly]

Reason why I'm not buying an HiDef player anytime soon

-2 formats
-Price of players
-I don't have an HDTV
-I have hundreds of regular dvd's now
-Discs will probably be more expensive ($15 is the perfect pricepoint for me, I won't buy a movie more than that except Box Sets or movies I really want)

[AntB]

I'll give it a year before I shell out for either.

[Babbster]

Within two years you'll be able to buy a combo Blu-Ray/HD-DVD/DVD player for $100 or less (I think Samsung's will debut at $250-300) and very few DVD-only players will still be produced (due to lower demand and tiny profit margins - DVD player profit margins are already so small that they're often given away with other purchases). THAT is what will ensure the move away from DVD to a new format.

All this yakking in advance of launch - an initial time period during which only "early adopters" buy new tech anyway - is pointless.

[jacktion]

nothing is known about the PS3 price yet

It could be $299,


You think the PS3 is going to cost 299? I have news for you dude. You're living in dreamsville, which is just down the road from hopeland and not too far from wishton.

[Steele Johnson]

Why don't people like HD DVD? As a serious gamer/movie buff, I want all the space I can get, and HD DVD has 10 more gig than BR. Hmmm....

[XenonCJ]

Why don't people like HD DVD? As a serious gamer/movie buff, I want all the space I can get, and HD DVD has 10 more gig than BR. Hmmm....This might be a dumb reason, but I kinda like Blu-Ray better because it has a new scratch resistant coating... However, in the grand scheme of things, if Sony is behind it, I don't trust it...

[JudasGoat]

Why don't people like HD DVD? As a serious gamer/movie buff, I want all the space I can get, and HD DVD has 10 more gig than BR. Hmmm....

You've got it backwards, bub. See here (http://www.engadget.com/2005/09/19/blu-ray-vs-hd-dvd-state-of-the-s-union-s-division/).

Blu-ray: 25GB single ROM layer.
HD-DVD: 15GB single ROM layer.

[Murmillo]

I'm getting to old. Reading this shit over and over is getting stale, fast.
The USB port is more then fast enough to allow movies to play, HD-DVD might have a slower seek time and the over all speed HD-DVD x1 might be slightly slower then a 16x DVD drive, it is more then enough to do any data you throw at it.

[Busted_Astromech]

But what Sl1pstream said, Murmillo, was that an HD-DVD game could not be played over USB, which AFAIK is certainly true. I have for my gaming laptop a USB soundcard...what a piece of garbage that is, the USB port can't handle the data needed for good real-time 5.1 sound.

I can't even imagine trying to throw all the data from a game through that--the main reason I don't think we'll see any HD-DVD 360 games. From all that I know there's simply no way for it to work over the inputs available.

[Phanto]

If gamers decide the format winner, then HD-DVD lost. No ones going to buy 360's addon.

WTF why someone would buy a HD -DVD addon for a console?

As far as i know you can only watch movies with that on the 360, if i'm correct the 360 console can already watch movies.

If I'm wrong feel free to correct me ;) .

[Busted_Astromech]

Well, the thought is that if you already own a 360 the add-on, a simple drive, will be the cheapest HD-DVD player available (paying for a dongle rather than a whole player).

[Murmillo]

But what Sl1pstream said, Murmillo, was that an HD-DVD game could not be played over USB, which AFAIK is certainly true. I have for my gaming laptop a USB soundcard...what a piece of garbage that is, the USB port can't handle the data needed for good real-time 5.1 sound.

I can't even imagine trying to throw all the data from a game through that--the main reason I don't think we'll see any HD-DVD 360 games. From all that I know there's simply no way for it to work over the inputs available.
Can't handle 5.1 sound? and yet we are going to put HD movies on these things?

Do you people even read what you write?. We are are going to be able to watch HD movies off a HD-DVD +sound.. but the thing can't handle just straight 5.1 audio... WTF!!

[Murmillo]

WTF why someone would buy a HD -DVD addon for a console?

As far as i know you can only watch movies with that on the 360, if i'm correct the 360 console can already watch movies.

If I'm wrong feel free to correct me ;) .
Because the DVD drive in the 360 can only read and play movies on a DVD. If you have a movie on a HD-DVD disk, you will need the HD-DVD addon. If you have a movie on a BlueRay disk, you will need a BlueRay player. Be it with a PS3, a BlueRay Player, or maybe should HD-DVD die, a 360 BlueRay addon (not saying it will, but nobody can say this would "never" happen")

[Busted_Astromech]

Hold on, Murmillo. It can't handle the data required for it to compute 5.1 sound from a game--nothing to do with a sound file you'd see from a movie. This isn't a straight feed, it's an extremely variable stream from a game. My point is that the calculations for sound alone in a modern game cannot be expressed over USB 2.0, therefore you're not going to see games over this attachment, as some are worried.

From everything I know (bapenguin's presented it very clearly), there's way more than enough speed to play movies off of it.

[Steele Johnson]

You've got it backwards, bub. See here (http://www.engadget.com/2005/09/19/blu-ray-vs-hd-dvd-state-of-the-s-union-s-division/).

Blu-ray: 25GB single ROM layer.
HD-DVD: 15GB single ROM layer.

Ah, thank you. So that's why we like it. ;)

[Schnoogs]

Most movies are still done on film and aren't HD, so how much better can they look than progressive scan DVDs right now?

Quite a bit better to be honest.

I have the T2 DVD and the T2 720p DVD and when played on my DLP front projector at 120" the difference is stunnign to say the least.

When digitized film is of a much higher resolution than anything DVD could ever hope of offering. Remember most movies that are shot in film are digitized at some point for FX and then transferred back to film for theaters. So in other words a movie does not need to be shot in HD to retain high quality when digitized.

[Balthasar]

I was a very early adopter of DVD and can honestly say I have no interest in this next advancement. If the buzz on HD-DVD / Blu-Ray is that it's for movies only, then what is the point? Most movies are still done on film and aren't HD, so how much better can they look than progressive scan DVDs right now?
*Sigh*

Again, to reeducate the masses, the TRUE resolution of films are higher than that which any HDTV will be able to display on the home market for the next 10 years or more. DVDs are downsampled/compressed from the master. So yes, there will most definitely be a difference.

[Balthasar]

Getting back to the initial posting; historically, it's been the Porn industry that has decided the format wars. We may come up with excuses on why x format won over y, but ultimately it's all come down to porn. They're a major early adopter, and the rest of the film industry has in the past followed their lead. While I can understand hedging your bets in case it's wrong this time, you can already get HD-DVD porn.

Just because it's better (larger capacity at least), doesn't mean it'll be accepted. Case in point, Beta vs VHS (another Sony format failure).
You're kidding, right? Or maybe you read one of my posts about this and misunderstood? Porn was a factor in all of ONE such "format war," but they were not THE reason beta lost out. Go back and do your research.

[Balthasar]

Related article: Retailers aren't happy (http://news.com.com/Next-gen+DVD+format+war+frustrates+retailers/2100-1041_3-6023768.html?tag=nefd.top).

This format war shit is ridiculous. It's going to be a failure on all fronts. HD-DVD will be the first to die followed shortly after by Blu-Ray. There isn't going to be general population support for these formats for quite some time, and by then there will be a another more relevant format with new FEATURES that make it worthwhile for consumers to upgrade.

Ask anyone who got DVD recently what their reasons were for it. You'll get one of these answers:

1) No rewinding
2) Chapters and special features
3) Smaller format
4) Picture Quality

What is HD-DVD/Blu-Ray going to offer in that list? #4. That's it.

You missed an item on that list:

5) Didn't want to keep sinking money into a soon-to-be unsupported/old format.

[Nadreck]

You're kidding, right? Or maybe you read one of my posts about this and misunderstood? Porn was a factor in all of ONE such "format war," but they were not THE reason beta lost out. Go back and do your research.

Nyet, no kidding. I haven't read any of your posts about this to my knowledge, and I stand by my statement from a standpoint of social psychology. Technical quality has nothing to do with acceptance; it comes from perceived value, often at an subconscious level. Pornography is an example of something that for many years wasn't something you admitted to watching (and in some places, still don't), and yet everyone DID watch it. Ultimately, the majority of reasoning people gave for going with VHS instead of Beta does not stand up to rigorous examination: there is an underlying motivator or reason at work, which to the best understanding of those that posited the idea in the first place, was porn.

While this is the clearest example of porn deciding a format war, and is also the only REAL format war we've had that was remotely analogous to HD-DVD and Blu-Ray, it is not the only example of porn having an influence in the fate of a format. In the realm of pay-per-view, and more recently video on demand, porn was the pioneer and motivating factor in the adoption of that form of delivery. Porn was a very early adopter of the DVD format. They were an early adopter of the internet as a viable commercial tool.

Here's the ultimate reason why I say it's more likely it'll be porn as it has been in the past that decides, not gamers: gamers will buy the latest technology anyway. If Microsoft announces a Blu-Ray drive dongle in addition to their HD-DVD one, do you really think the demographic that would buy either in the first place won't buy both? We bitch and moan about the price and how things should have been included in the first place, but when all said and done, we still buy it. Quite frankly, we as a buying demographic lack the discrimination to decide a format war.

[Steele Johnson]

To all you HD DVD/BR naysayers, have you even seen HD broadcasting on a high-end HD tv? You all sound like you've never seen it. Either that, or you've invested thousands of dollars on DVDs thinking that they'd never be obsolete. Well guess what? They will be. It's technology, and technology keeps moving and advancing whether you like it or not.

Personally, I can't wait for HD/BR DVDs. I don't even go to the movies anymore because my tv actually looks much better.

[Balthasar]

To all you HD DVD/BR naysayers, have you even seen HD broadcasting on a high-end HD tv? You all sound like you've never seen it. Either that, or you've invested thousands of dollars on DVDs thinking that they'd never be obsolete. Well guess what? They will be. It's technology, and technology keeps moving and advancing whether you like it or not.

Personally, I can't wait for HD/BR DVDs. I don't even go to the movies anymore because my tv actually looks much better.
Clearly you've never seen a movie projected digitally. ;)
Seriously, though, DLP in movie theaters is the best I have ever seen anywhere. Hard to find if you live in a small town, I imagine, but theaters will eventually all convert to just that technology.

[Roc Ingersol]

To all you HD DVD/BR naysayers, have you even seen HD broadcasting on a high-end HD tv?
Yeah. And I saw laserdisc on a proscan set back in the 80s too.
Just because it looks way better, doesn't mean people switch.

[Balthasar]

Technical quality has nothing to do with acceptance; it comes from perceived value, often at an subconscious level. Pornography is an example of something that for many years wasn't something you admitted to watching (and in some places, still don't), and yet everyone DID watch it. Ultimately, the majority of reasoning people gave for going with VHS instead of Beta does not stand up to rigorous examination: there is an underlying motivator or reason at work, which to the best understanding of those that posited the idea in the first place, was porn.
That's great and all, but that doesn't relate very well to what is happening now. There was no widely-available format before VHS and Beta that allowed consumers to have copies of movies or tv shows. There were no other options. You couldn't force adoption. If everyone was buying VCRs, studios had to follow suit and produce media on those formats. And again, I didn't say porn wasn't a factor. I am simply stating, besides putting too great an importance on their role in the VHS/Beta fate, they will likely play less of a role here.

While this is the clearest example of porn deciding a format war, and is also the only REAL format war we've had that was remotely analogous to HD-DVD and Blu-Ray, it is not the only example of porn having an influence in the fate of a format. In the realm of pay-per-view, and more recently video on demand, porn was the pioneer and motivating factor in the adoption of that form of delivery. Porn was a very early adopter of the DVD format. They were an early adopter of the internet as a viable commercial tool.
Great, except none of those are formats in the same sense as optical media. They are all also "first in line" formats, in that there was nothing like them before them. Again, that is not the case here. Porn may have adopted DVD early, but they had almost no sway in the switch over from VHS. I've said it before and I'll say it again: DVD did not begin to take over until studios decided to stop putting major/new releases on VHS.

Here's the ultimate reason why I say it's more likely it'll be porn as it has been in the past that decides, not gamers:
Well, I don't think gamers have much to say about this in the first place, if by gamers we mean people who identify themselves in this way. Mainstream adoption of the PS3, on the other hand, is going to help studios expedite increasing the number of titles available in BR and decreasing the amount on DVD. A slow process to be sure, one which likely won't see major gains until HDTV is the standard.

If Microsoft announces a Blu-Ray drive dongle in addition to their HD-DVD one, do you really think the demographic that would buy either in the first place won't buy both? We bitch and moan about the price and how things should have been included in the first place, but when all said and done, we still buy it.
I have no intention of buying that add-on. Then again, I have no confidence in HD-DVD as a format.

[mister_slim]

It's only a matter of time when first HD-DVD game for 360 ships.

Even Moore said "Right now it's for movies only.", emphasis on "right now" mine.

You can easily imagine some super-duper Limited eXclusive Edition of a high profile title.
Actually, they could do a dual-layer disk, where it played normally in a DVD drive but the HD-DVD drive could pull data off the HD layer. I'm not really sure what it would be used for, though.

[Chimpbot]

Actually, they could do a dual-layer disk, where it played normally in a DVD drive but the HD-DVD drive could pull data off the HD layer. I'm not really sure what it would be used for, though.

It'd probably be used for, as Borys mentioned, super-duper Limited eXclusive Edition content for some major title.

And this is utterly and totally off-topic...but yes, Slim; Zombies do indeed luv pancak.

[mister_slim]

It'd probably be used for, as Borys mentioned, super-duper Limited eXclusive Edition content for some major title.
To unlock a bonus Jade Empire 2 character or something, probably.

And this is utterly and totally off-topic...but yes, Slim; Zombies do indeed luv pancak.
Paaancaaak... Paaaaaanncaaaaak...

Alright, time for sleeping.