Microsoft might decide fate of Blu-Ray

[Vandenh]

According to an article (http://www.eetimes.com/news/latest/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=175400242)in the EETimes, Microsoft is getting very agressive in the Bluray vs HD-DVD fight and might ultimately decide the fate of "next gen" storage.

No one in the consumer industry can ever safely ignore the Microsoft/Intel support for HD-DVD. On the other hand, there is no assurance that the alliance within the Blu-ray group, now united against Microsoft, will remain tight forever. Ben Keen, chief analyst at Screen Digest, a London-based market research firm, said, "One of the most potentially divisive elements in the Blu-ray camp is Sony undercutting all the CE products with a Playstation 3 that does everything a Blu-ray player will do — and much more."
So basically both companies have an ace up their sleeve, Sony has a Bluray PS3 and MS could have HD-DVD enabled Vista.

[Borys]

Sony's PS3 will sit in the main room (guestroom?) right under your new, shiny 52" HDTV while Microsoft's Vista enabled PC in the working (office?) room next to 21" display.

Where will 99.99% of consumers want to watch the new, hot BR or DVD release?

I'm sorry Vandenh, I know you are trying hard to downplay the PS3/BR combo but Sony wins by default.

[Vandenh]

I am not downplaying anything. Economies of scale? 20M laptops every year... 60M PCs every year. What would happen if PCs come standard with HD-DVD drives???? You didn't read the article did you? Who knows..; maybe MS even wants people to stream movies from Media center PC (Vista will have that build in) from the HD-DVD drive to TV? Or what about TV-on-demand? A lot of the cable companies over here are providing that now... maybe you don't need Bluray/HD-DVD any more in 5 years? (as stated in article).

As I stated many times... Bluray vs HD-DVD leaves me kinda cold. I don't think I will upgrade soon... DVDs seem good enough for the next couple of years in my case. Hell.. China is still using VCDs everywhere.

[bapenguin]

Here's something to consider. Everyone knows Sony is going to release the PS3 with the Blu-Ray drive at a huge loss. Where does that leave all of Sony's hardware partners? Are they going to have to sell their Blu-Ray players at a loss just to compete? Sony could see themselves losing their hardware partners if they don't kick something back to them to make up for the competition from within.

I still think we are going to see combo players, kind of like the whole DVD-A/SACD stuff we saw on the audio front this gen. The type of hardware will be irrelevant because most hardware manufacturers will go the combo route, I know Samsung has already announced plans to do this.

[KhitomerRouge]

Microsoft depends on the vendors and munfacturers for Windows purchases, it's not the other way around. They're trying to force the format war because their modified XML layer, aka iHD, is the HD-DVD navigation/interface layer, as opposed to their old rival Sun's BD-Java in Blu-Ray. HP (who's been somewhat skittish of late) switched because they were intimidated, and I assume they thought that they wouldn't be alone. Unfortunately for them, no one else was scared by the Microsoft boogeyman, but they had managed to weasel into supporting both rather than dropping Blu-Ray entirely.

I look at it like this: CES is 2 weeks away, and assuming a Q2 2006 launch date for either format, they're pretty much locked into manufacturing schedules by the end of the show. While their are some companies that support both (Samsung, Onkyo, Alpine, Warner, Paramount), the majority of both CE manufacturers and studios support Blu-Ray exclusively. Pioneer even announced that they'll have a PC Blu-Ray re/writer out as early as the end of next month (http://www.pioneer.co.jp/press/release159.html).

[AspectVoid]

I am not downplaying anything. Economies of scale? 20M laptops every year... 60M PCs every year. What would happen if PCs come standard with HD-DVD drives????

Well, lets see, I got my first DVD drive for my PC in '99. They have only become standard with PCs in the past year. That's a five to six year gap where the vast majority of people had regular CD-ROM drives. You can add to the fact that CD-Rom drives still massively outnumber DVD Drives in the consumer market (at least, that's the guess given how little software comes on DVDs).

A lot of those new computer sales you're talking about go to businesses. Those businesses are NOT going to be buying HD-DVD collections for each of their employees to watch on their new PCs. There will be no living rooms or TVs to stream the stuff too.

Finally, the mass number of individuals who buy windows computers are the idiot segment of the mass market. We are talking about people who don't even know that you need to start a program to use it (working in tech support myself, this is a common thing). Those people are NOT going to bother even trying to figure out how to stream media from their PC to their TV.

[Yeti2005]

Vandenh is right. MS would like you to stream movies from Media Center. I believe Gates said one of his big complaints about BR was initially they weren't going to allow you to make a copy for your home machine (DRM'ed of course). Personally the idea of a video server (some of my friends have already created their own) is very appealing.

I keep hearing about HVD which is supposed to have massive amounts of space but that might be a while off and I haven't heard anything about the movie industry embracing that technology.

In the end we'll be stuck with combo players.

[Vandenh]

>Those people are NOT going to bother even trying to figure out how to stream media from their PC to their TV.

It's great to feel technologically superior but look what iPod did.. it suddenly made digital music popular for everybody. Maybe it is just a matter of time before people will start to "own" media streaming servers? Maybe we just need a killer app? Who knows, Apple is long rumored to be thinking about a media streaming server....

[Zawath]

Sony's PS3 will sit in the main room (guestroom?) right under your new, shiny 52" HDTV while Microsoft's Vista enabled PC in the working (office?) room next to 21" display.

Where will 99.99% of consumers want to watch the new, hot BR or DVD release?

I'm sorry Vandenh, I know you are trying hard to downplay the PS3/BR combo but Sony wins by default.

Consumers are going to watch it on a proper DVD/BR player. If they can afford a huge 52 inch TV then they can also afford a real player that is much better suited for watching DVDs than PS3 or Xbox360.

[Vandenh]

>Consumers are going to watch it on a proper DVD/BR player.

You got a point there as well. How many of us use PS2/XBox as their DVD player?

[kokyunage]

Here's something to consider. Everyone knows Sony is going to release the PS3 with the Blu-Ray drive at a huge loss. Where does that leave all of Sony's hardware partners? Are they going to have to sell their Blu-Ray players at a loss just to compete? Sony could see themselves losing their hardware partners if they don't kick something back to them to make up for the competition from within.

Well, the PS3 Bluray is only a player (read only). The first standalone Bluray unit(pioneer) has bluray burning compability. Hence, the higher price tag they will have. So, Sony isn't screwing up other hardware bluray vendors. --Source (http://www.shacknews.com/onearticle.x/40096)

[bapenguin]

Well, the PS3 Bluray is only a player (read only). The first standalone Bluray unit(pioneer) has bluray burning compability. Hence, the higher price tag they will have. So, Sony isn't screwing up other hardware bluray vendors. --Source (http://www.shacknews.com/onearticle.x/40096)

The Pioneer Drive is aimed at PCs, not at the consumer market in stand alone players. Many of the hardware manufacturers in the Blu-Ray camp have plans for standalone players, no need to buy the drives from Pioneer when they manufacture them themselves.

[Cool AN]

Microsoft depends on companies like Dell and HP to distribute their products. However both support Blu-Ray, Dell even exclusively. HD-DVD doesn't have any where near the same support as Blu-Ray does, and the PS 3 will defiantly boost Blu-Ray sales.

[Vandenh]

>Microsoft depends on companies like Dell and HP to distribute their products.

Errrr... Dell and HP depend on MS to supply their OS (and they have to pay for it). The article was stating that vendors including HD-DVD might get (illegal) discounts on their Vista license or, like HP was saying, HD-DVD will just be cheaper to include for vendors because MS will include all support in Vista.

[Morratut]

>Consumers are going to watch it on a proper DVD/BR player.

You got a point there as well. How many of us use PS2/XBox as their DVD player?

I use my 360 as the DVD player. Its great for me.

[XenonCJ]

According to an article (http://www.eetimes.com/news/latest/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=175400242)in the EETimes, Microsoft is getting very agressive in the Bluray vs HD-DVD fight and might ultimately decide the fate of "next gen" storage.
So basically both companies have an ace up their sleeve, Sony has a Bluray PS3 and MS could have HD-DVD enabled Vista.You mean a Blu-Ray DISABLED Vista\XP\2000.

[TheEpicOfTyler]

You got a point there as well. How many of us use PS2/XBox as their DVD player?

Me. :)

I've been using my PS2 since launch for my DVD playing needs.

[Chalex]

Microsoft didn't provide any type of support for DVDs and we all see how hampered that technology was :rolleyes:

It's nice for the HD-DVD group to be able to say hey we have MS and Intel, but that really gives them nothing but bragging rights. The only hardware MS makes that could possibly use HD-DVD is the Xbox and that ships already set sail, Intel is giving the group absolutely nothing but it's name.

The article even states that MS has no intrest in winning, all they want to do is harm the market and confuse the consumer, in the hopes that it will harm Sony:

"Many, who spoke on condition of anonymity, believe Microsoft is committed to prolonging the format war, not necessarily winning the battle for HD-DVD."

Blu-Ray and HD-DVD are both worthless to computer companies as they will probably never make it in that part of the market, the first drives will be horrendously expensive and will only really be useful for data backup. By the time it does become remotely affordable for the common PC user they will already have a standalone player. The managed copy thing is a bullshit reason because no-one would take the time to rip a 15-50 GB copy of a video and eat up that much drive space on their PC when they could just toss the disk into a standalone played under their TV and let it just work.

By the time MS gets their shit together no-one will care any more, the market will be owned by some other company (i.e. Apple, Sony, hell even a cable company if they start to deliver with on-demand services) and the only ones to suffer are the consumer.

[Kelegacy]

>Consumers are going to watch it on a proper DVD/BR player.

You got a point there as well. How many of us use PS2/XBox as their DVD player?
Yeah, I own no "normal" DVD player other than my PS2 and PC. I'm too cheap to buy a peripheral to allow me to play DVDs on my Xbox, especially when the PS2 does it for free.

[Balthasar]

>Microsoft depends on companies like Dell and HP to distribute their products.

Errrr... Dell and HP depend on MS to supply their OS (and they have to pay for it). The article was stating that vendors including HD-DVD might get (illegal) discounts on their Vista license or, like HP was saying, HD-DVD will just be cheaper to include for vendors because MS will include all support in Vista.

Considering the fact that none of these companies hold sway over all of the major Hollywood studios that are exclusive to Blu-Ray, all it amounts to is a diversion to consumers like you (which Chalex refered to earlier).

[Heretic Machine]

Two words: Laser disc.

How many people own HDTV's? Now how many of those people will be willing to upgrade to a new format just to watch their movies at a slightly higher resolution? How much money is Wal-mart going to lose having these discs gather dust on their shelves for years and years?

[Kelegacy]

Two words: Laser disc.

How many people own HDTV's? Now how many of those people will be willing to upgrade to a new format just to watch their movies at a slightly higher resolution? How much money is Wal-mart going to lose having these discs gather dust on their shelves for years and years?
Probably the same amount of people that are drooling over the 360 and High Def gaming--a higher resolution is always better, even if it's only superficial tweakage. But as long as the price is right, which is always dangerous when releasing a new media. Plus, they don't need to upgrade all of their movies, if the BR player is compatible with standard DVDs. They can just buy their new movies in the new format.

[KhitomerRouge]

a) More than 15 million, and according to the CEA, about half of the consumers purchasing new TVs in the U.S. will be purchasing an HDTV
b) Probably a lot, thanks to the adherence of Americans to advertising.
c) Who knows?

[Returner]

Seems father off then BR or HDdvd but it’s also an insane amount of storage. You think that Holographic Disk might stand a chance?

[jeffbax]

Two words: Laser disc.

How many people own HDTV's? Now how many of those people will be willing to upgrade to a new format just to watch their movies at a slightly higher resolution? How much money is Wal-mart going to lose having these discs gather dust on their shelves for years and years?
Uhh... There is a *whole* lot more than a "slight" resolution difference between standard DVD 480p and HD 720p/1080i/1080p resolutions.

I think 720p is like 3x the pixels of 480p?

thats a big deal to some, home theatres are becoming more popular these days.

Its going to be an interesting battle.

Personally, I want Apple to have a downloadable movie store, with reasonably priced and resolution videos. I only watch movies like once or twice so owning them isn't a huge deal to me, and the convenience of on demand downloads is sooooo appealing.

[KhitomerRouge]

DVD is 480p, with 720*480=345600 pixels
HD is either 720p, with 1280*720=921600 pixels or 1080i/p, with 1920*1080=2073600 pixels.

[Borys]

Take from another poster from another forum:

This isn't gonna matter at all. DVDs didn't become popular because DVD drives were bundled with PCs. DVDs' popularity started in the living room and then moved to the PC. I mean, honestly, the percentage of consumers that purchase DVD content for their PCs when compared with DVD content for the living room is insignificant.

The same will happen with any movie format. It will go from the living room first to the PC last. And since Sony has much more of a grip on the living room than Microsoft can hope to have in the near future, HD-DVD doesn't stand a chance. Consumers are still buying CDs for their computers. They won't jump to HD-DVDs just because their new PCs include the drives.

Exactly what I was meaning to say. You HD-DVD (Microsoft) apologist are a sad bunch, really. Spin doctors of the highest class, sigh...

Sony won the living room with the BR, MS lost it. There's no other way around it, no "buh, buh, buh Vista, downloadable content" crap.

Hmm, what should I do?

Buy a BR movie and watch it in an instant on my PS3 in the living room or try to download a 20 gig movie in 3-7 days (if not longer) and watch it on my PC?

Vista supporting HD-DVD over BR means *shit* to the casuals watching movies bought in Wal-Mart in their living room, on their PS3. Nerds will beg to differ but they don't matter.

[Achilles]

My money’s on Vista being able to support both HDDVD and Blu-Ray. Whenever those drives actually come out that is.Sony won the living room with the BR, MS lost it. There's no other way around it, no "buh, buh, buh Vista, downloadable content" crap.

Hmm, what should I do?

Buy a BR movie and watch it in an instant on my PS3 in the living room or try to download a 20 gig movie in 3-7 days (if not longer) and watch it on my PC?Hey go for it. I was unaware that either Blu-Ray drives or BR-DVDs were out yet, but since they already won the living room, and you can just bring one up in an instant on your PS3, I say go for it. You're clearly the authority.

[XenonCJ]

Take from another poster from another forum:



Exactly what I was meaning to say. You HD-DVD (Microsoft) apologist are a sad bunch, really. Spin doctors of the highest class, sigh...

Sony won the living room with the BR, MS lost it. There's no other way around it, no "buh, buh, buh Vista, downloadable content" crap.

Hmm, what should I do?

Buy a BR movie and watch it in an instant on my PS3 in the living room or try to download a 20 gig movie in 3-7 days (if not longer) and watch it on my PC?

Vista supporting HD-DVD over BR means *shit* to the casuals watching movies bought in Wal-Mart in their living room, on their PS3. Nerds will beg to differ but they don't matter.That's some of the dumbest logic I've read in a while... What does the hell does "downloadable content" (proven quite successfully by iTunes btw), have to do with HD-DVD?

If Dell\HP\IBM all start shipping HD-DVD players in thier PCs and Media Center devices becuause of Microsoft support for ONLY HD-DVD, then that's just one more nail in the coffin for Blu-Ray...

I personally think we'll just end up seeing "DVD players" that support both of these new formats.

The real future *IS* downloadable content, as storage and bandwidth in your average user home increases, this will become more and more realistic. Get used to it. Again, look at the success of iTunes if you don't believe me.

[Balthasar]

That's some of the dumbest logic I've read in a while... What does the hell does "downloadable content" (proven quite successfully by iTunes btw), have to do with HD-DVD?

If Dell\HP\IBM all start shipping HD-DVD players in thier PCs and Media Center devices becuause of Microsoft support for ONLY HD-DVD, then that's just one more nail in the coffin for Blu-Ray...

No, it isn't. Computer hardware has not and will not in the near future dictate
media formats used in the livingroom. It's been stated (and ignored) a few times already, but just look at how pc publishers sell their games. Why haven't all of them moved on to DVD yet? You think a platform that still uses CDs as the standard can significantly affect whether Joe Blow with his 6.1 surround sound system and brand new 41'' HD TV will go with Blu-ray or HD-DVD? This argument has absolutely no merits. You can't even site a counter-example in the history of consumer electronics where such a thing has happened.

I personally think we'll just end up seeing "DVD players" that support both of these new formats.

The real future *IS* downloadable content, as storage and bandwidth in your average user home increases, this will become more and more realistic. Get used to it. Again, look at the success of iTunes if you don't believe me.
That's entirely possible, but unnecessary if movie studios are only (or primarily) going to release on Blu-ray.

And sure, the future does look like it will be downloadable content in some manner, but certainly not in the near future. For one, penetration of high-bandwidth connections in the U.S. is too low for that to replace a "hard" format. Secondly, it isn't really fast enough for the current generation of dvds, let alone media that will have upwards of 20 gigs on it. Speaking of itunes is fallacious because mp3's (and the tv shows they are selling) are significantly smaller in size than anything we are talking about here. High Definition content is very, very big.

[Morrolan]

Holographic discs, mentioned by the dude above, have both FAR more storage capacity, and much faster transfer rates, than any silly old spinning disc. These formats are coming far too soon, and are not a significant enough improvement to even justify the switch. Holographic discs will be first hitting the market right around the sweet spot in the DVD's life cycle, and will be a major improvement over them, unlike HD-DVD and Blu-Ray. Frankly, the whole idea of a rapidly moving storange medium is something we should be trying to move away from. Holographic HDD's and holographic moveable storage seems like it would be a true step forward.

[mister_slim]

I doubt MS will have much sway in what vendors support what format. Apple will be shipping a BR drive standard before Dell or HP offer a HD drive as anything more than a high-priced option.

[Balthasar]

Holographic discs, mentioned by the dude above, have both FAR more storage capacity, and much faster transfer rates, than any silly old spinning disc. These formats are coming far too soon, and are not a significant enough improvement to even justify the switch. Holographic discs will be first hitting the market right around the sweet spot in the DVD's life cycle, and will be a major improvement over them, unlike HD-DVD and Blu-Ray. Frankly, the whole idea of a rapidly moving storange medium is something we should be trying to move away from. Holographic HDD's and holographic moveable storage seems like it would be a true step forward.
HVD is certainly better, but it will likely never make it as a consumer product. Being a better product is not equivalent to success on the consumer market. It has no support, is too big to be practical simply for movie storage, and will probably be too expensive.

[Borys]

That's some of the dumbest logic I've read in a while... What does the hell does "downloadable content" (proven quite successfully by iTunes btw), have to do with HD-DVD?

If Dell\HP\IBM all start shipping HD-DVD players in thier PCs and Media Center devices becuause of Microsoft support for ONLY HD-DVD, then that's just one more nail in the coffin for Blu-Ray...

I personally think we'll just end up seeing "DVD players" that support both of these new formats.

The real future *IS* downloadable content, as storage and bandwidth in your average user home increases, this will become more and more realistic. Get used to it. Again, look at the success of iTunes if you don't believe me.

It must suck to be avoiding any logic like you just did.

There's no BR coffin and MS doesn't even have a SINGLE nail to put in it.

You are comparing iTunes and HD movies? Do you have any idea about the size difference between them?

:rolleyes:

You didn't counter-argument a single point from my post because, frankly, you simply can't. The history, tech facts and the overall life logic prove you wrong.

But hey, keep on living the Microsoft/ HD-DVD dream if that floats your boat. The world will choose differently and you'll be crying on the inside.

[XenonCJ]

It must suck to be avoiding any logic like you just did.

There's no BR coffin and MS doesn't even have a SINGLE nail to put in it.

You are comparing iTunes and HD movies? Do you have any idea about the size difference between them?

:rolleyes:

You didn't counter-argument a single point from my post because, frankly, you simply can't. The history, tech facts and the overall life logic prove you wrong.

But hey, keep on living the Microsoft/ HD-DVD dream if that floats your boat. The world will choose differently and you'll be crying on the inside.You don't have any logic to ignore. For example, if you like backing up/burning your movies on your PC, and HD-DVD disks are your only option (MS Support), having a Blu-Ray player would be useless to you. If MS doesn't support Blu-Ray in Windows Media Center Edition, or it's other OSs, that's simply less support for Blu-Ray. Case closed.

Now you are just playing stupid I think, or maybe you are just ignorant... You can already download full legnth TV shows and HD movie trailers from iTunes and other similar services now, it's only a matter of time until full legnth HD movies will be available... Really man, wake up, it's the 21st century.

[Morrolan]

HVD is certainly better, but it will likely never make it as a consumer product. Being a better product is not equivalent to success on the consumer market. It has no support, is too big to be practical simply for movie storage, and will probably be too expensive.
Too expensive, perhaps. But the physical size of the discs is quite reasonable, a bit bigger than a zip disc, from what I heard.

[XenonCJ]

Too expensive, perhaps. But the physical size of the discs is quite reasonable, a bit bigger than a zip disc, from what I heard.They are the same size and shape as regular DVDs : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holographic_Versatile_Disc

A HVD reader costs $15,000+ so "rock on" you early adopter people.

[mister_slim]

You don't have any logic to ignore. For example, if you like backing up/burning your movies on your PC, and HD-DVD disks are your only option (MS Support), having a Blu-Ray player would be useless to you. If MS doesn't support Blu-Ray in Windows Media Center Edition, or it's other OSs, that's simply less support for Blu-Ray. Case closed.
Dell's not going to ship Blu-Ray drives that aren't supported. I really doubt MS is going to be able to ignore Blu-Ray, if they want their vendors to ship MCE computers.