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View Full Version : Opinion: Distributing and Marketing Software For the Next Generation Console(s)


3Suns
12-10-2008, 05:12 PM
I suppose I need to preface this article with the statement that it is really something out of the blue, and specifically focused on some unknown future. However, I have an idea of what things could be like, and I am excited about the opportunities that game console makers have before them. Let me just add, I don't think that Blu-Ray is going to become the next disc format, replacing DVDs like DVDs replaced VHS. I think before Blu-Ray really takes hold, digital distribution will surpass it in popularity. It is with this in mind, that I begin.

Microsoft is doubtless already in the planning stages of their next gaming machine, even though the sales of such a machine are a minimum of 3, and possibly as far as 5 or 6 years away. One of the issues they will be discussing is what should be done about the optical disc drive. I am persuaded that it is in Microsoft's best interest (though not necessarily in the customers' best interest) to abandon all forms of physical media altogether. They should include a large capacity hard drive but not include any form of media reading device at all.

The Distribution
Reasons for Online Digital Distribution (and Excluding An Optical Drive)

1. It is sustainable. The number of XBL paying subscribers is now pushing 15 million, and there are millions more that are silver (i.e., connected and downloading demos, movies, etc., but not paying for the full game services). At the time of the next gen machine, that number should be much higher. It isn't a stretch to think that most of those subscribers will transfer their accounts to the next gen machine when they actually buy it. Most of the gamers in the next generation will be hooked up to the Internet and capable of downloading whatever is offered. Therefore, the argument that consumers will not have access to purchasing the games via the Internet is no longer relevant. They should do it because it would be sustainable/profitable. It would work.

2. It would save Microsoft significant dollars in manufacturing the console. In turn, Microsoft can deliver the machine at a much lower price. They may be able to enter the market with a price of $250 or even the coveted an magical $200. Furthermore, the actual machine itself could be considerably smaller and would have much greater design flexibility because it wouldn't need to accommodate the optical drive.

3. It would allow Microsoft even more creativity in the marketing of their products. While the software itself would be downloaded, Microsoft could offer a varitey of physical packages to be purchased at stores. Packages could be offered both with and without the software download (redeem) code. SKUs with the software download code, could be sold at traditional prices of $50 or $60. Those without the software, for customers who bought the software directly from the "Marketplace" but still want the physical box and manual, could be sold for $10. (Please see below for SKU ideas.) Furthermore, all of these products could be sold weeks in advance of the game's release.

4. It would increase revenues for both publishers and developers because it would completely shut down the second-hand market, in addition to the actual manufacturing costs involved in creating discs.

5. It would give developers an added month of development time, because the phase of "going Gold" would be removed from their schedule.

6. It would get the product to the customer faster, with less hassle, and would help to prevent any undesirable consequences of the midnight release sales (such as manslaughter, murder, and mayhem).

7. It would allow for more "impulse" sales as customers would always be just one click away from purchasing any game.


The Marketing
Some Example SKUs

Every item (box) for sale in stores should include but not be limited to:

1. a "collectable card" with the actual redeemable code for the software (if it is the software-included package).

2. a game manual

3. a plastic or metal fob/doohickey/toy for attaching to key rings, handbags, or even necklesses.

4. a car window decal

5. a single sheet of stickers for putting on anything and everything

Additional possibilities - a small artbook, picture, or anything else that would fit into the box. Also, personally, I think the box should be smaller than the current DVD boxes and should be standardized, with Limited Editions being double or triple wide to accommodate the Limited Edition goodies.

Things to Consider

Should Microsoft create separate accounts for purchases and for XBL gaming? Perhaps even a Master account under which gamers could have several XBL accounts. This would protect the consumer from losing all his/her games should their XBL account be banned. It could be marketed in such a way as to appease those who would complain about the impermanence of the digital distribution model.


Mini-FAQ

The Internet is too slow, which means waiting for the game to download, which means delayed delivery.

Advanced downloading a la Steam. By the time the launch minute arrives, everyone already has that puppy on their drive from a couple of days ago. They just need to unlock it.

Let's use flash drives instead of discs!

That is just going back to the cartridge of the eighties and ninties. They are more expensive than disks, and even if they weren't, it is a technological step backwards. Similarly, reusable flash drives - why bother? In fact, if it is reusable, then you aren't even getting an actual object but you still have the hassle of having to wait outside your game retailer at midnight, taking your life in your hands, and missing out on sleep or even gaming time while you haul your sorry ass back home.

I want a physical object to hold and to cherish; the retailers do to!
That is what my marketing section is all about. Please check that out again, because the items I have listed are far more than what people are currently getting when they buy a game (with the exception of the disc itself), nor, are the possibilities even limited to what I have suggested. So, aside from the game itself, we are coming out WAY ahead.

Also, as an example, consider Castle Crashers. We all "picked up" that puppy without hesitating. It was easy, and we never have to put it in the tray, ever again. It is always on the hard drive, ready to roll. This whole installing games on the hard drive is useless. Every time I want to switch games, I STILL have to get up to put in the dongle (The DVD itself). Give me goodies, but give me IP goodies, not the game disc (which can be scratched, and broken, and lost) instead. Stickers, decals, fobs, art books, figurines, on the other hand, that stuff is fun. Either that, or let me get my games for the difference that it costs to provide me with those space taking boxes and inadequate manuals.

What are your thoughts?

Evil Avatar
12-10-2008, 06:31 PM
I want a physical object to hold and to cherish; the retailers do to!

That sums up my feelings on digital distribution. You can't re-sell that copy of Castle Crashers when you are done with it, can you?

B_Money
12-10-2008, 07:06 PM
Is a DVD drive really cheaper than say a 200 gig hdd? Cause the 20 gig drive that came with the non-elite 360s won't cut it for an all digital delivery system.

3Suns
12-10-2008, 07:53 PM
That sums up my feelings on digital distribution. You can't re-sell that copy of Castle Crashers when you are done with it, can you?

No, you right, you can't. But you know what, I already can't resell my hard copy games, because I am living in Japan and no one here wants games without Japanese (I purchase all my games via PlayAsia the Asian versions to work on my J360). Similarly, some of them, like GTA4, are region locked, so I can't even send it to friends in the States to sell it either. Admittedly, the ex-pat is in a special and rare situation. However, I am not claiming that this is definitely what the customer wants, but I think it is what would be best for say, Microsoft.

Also, in the end, you bought CC, didn't you? ;)

Interestingly, 1Up just posted a story (http://www.1up.com/do/newsStory?cId=3171767)about Fable 2 possibly being available via Digital download.

Jedi Hampster
12-10-2008, 08:18 PM
Honestly, the thing that most people forget about is the wii. Microsoft and Sony both want a piece of that pie that Nintendo has found, so they have to go for the "lowest common denominator". They aren't competing for our dollars anymore, they think they already have that assured. Just look at the arrogance that Sony has displayed this generation. That it's a privilege for us to pay them for their machine. Because we're not the main targets any more, that means a disc/cartridge/memory stick will be what they are going to use, because that's what "the lowest common denominator" will expect. Until people, and I'm talking someone of my parent's technical ability here, get used to downloading media/entertainment through some other sort of media (cable on-demand and netflix seem to be good entries for this), they aren't going to pluck down 50-60 bucks on a digital download. We see the future, but the future tends to be far further back then we want it to be. Take a look at online play for consoles. They were selling modems back in the day of the snes, but it took 2 more generations until that actually became a legitimate reality. The XBLA and Sony stores are a good starting point, but only for something as cheap as say, castle crashers. They won't go exclusively online until two things happen. Broadband is a universal utility, not a luxury item, and people shed their need of something physical. They may start selling "full" games online in the next generation, but they won't go exclusive like you're talking to well after they've established in the hearts and minds of the people that it'll work.

Redline
12-10-2008, 10:30 PM
That sums up my feelings on digital distribution. You can't re-sell that copy of Castle Crashers when you are done with it, can you?

You can't resell that movie ticket once you're done watching the movie, can you?

donkeydrop
12-10-2008, 10:34 PM
When digital distribution of 40-50GB is practical (i.e. it takes minutes and you have terabytes of storage) then try your argument again. Until then it's Blu-ray drives for next-gen.

Trazzlo the Magnificant
12-11-2008, 08:35 AM
I agree with Jedi Hampster in that Nintendo cater well to people who just want to buy a product, pop in the game, and play. That sells, it's easy, and doesn't need anything special at the TV.

But, that applies specifically to people who buy consoles for gaming.

The thing that might change people over is if they start using the 360 Arcade as their television delivery device. MS has been pushing the whole idea of IPTV, and they already supply Comcast with the backend software. If the 360 becomes a replacement option for the set top box (more expensive but offers digital TV interface, IPTV, Netflix, plus movie and tv show rentals) then people might get used to Live Arcade games. Instant access, but no physical item.

I think that video content is most likely to migrate to download rather than physical media, and then sometime thereafter gaming will too. I just think that more people watch television than play games, so that market will be the driving factor.

The argument of 50GB downloads for gaming doesn't apply, simply because most gaming doesn't need that. Only a very small percentage of the population wants massive games. Most seem to like Nintendo bowling.

For the few gamers who have massive gaming needs, there will be a niche market. But, mainstream will probably look very different.

Nuggsy
12-11-2008, 09:11 AM
I think that it's bound to happen but I think that there will always be part of the public that genuinely likes having a physical copy of the game itself.

It's nice to have a copy of a Pollock or Rembrandt on your hard drive, but it's also nice to have the original or a print in your home. I don't know what you'd call it, a collector's nostalgia, or something like that but there are reasons that people are unwilling to depart with physical things. Case in point, I still have my original Phantasy Star cartridge for the Sega Master System. I can't play it anymore, and don't really feel the need to, but I like having it on my shelf. The same could be said for my original copy of Final Fantasy VII.

There's some inherent psychological worth in these things, I feel. That feeling extends to the purchase of physical media too, I think; it's a weird sort of connection but I think that there will always be a market for it but in the future it will be more of a niche.

the soUL TRAder
12-11-2008, 10:59 AM
Obviously there is room for many avenues of distribution to still be viable for a long time, but the reality is DD will grow the most quickly and be the most dominant in the next 10 years.

The main reason will be the developers, as they will make fewer and fewer epic games with $100-$200million budgets aimed at selling to all gamers, and focus on smaller, more accessible gaming experiences made specific for a smaller group of gamers.

At the same time though, I'd bet most publisher's would think selling a physical copy inside those collectors gift packs they love to upcharge with is a good idea, for collectors the added bonus is you can keep your hard copy in shrink wrap and just use the code to unlock the downloaded game.

And, if you really think about it, a hard copy of Castle Crashers would have cost you at least $40, since you can sell back a new game within the first month for about 60% of new value you pay $17.50 to own a hard copy for a month, as oppossed to what ($20?) to have it on a hard drive for as long as you choose, not to mention the ability to re-download it if you can connect to the net. Add gas and time and it's basically a financial wash.

But there will be plenty of physical storage competing in the future, heck I'm sure HD-DvD will be back, just marketed with a different name, something like DVD Ultra.

opusdeath
12-11-2008, 11:07 AM
Obviously there is room for many avenues of distribution to still be viable for a long time, but the reality is DD will grow the most quickly and be the most dominant in the next 10 years.

I genuinely believe it will be even quicker than that. The constraints for the consumer are storage (getting cheaper) and connections (getting faster and thus cheaper).

The whole have something to hold seems to affect a lot of my friends around the 30 age mark but the kids of today who grow up on DD through ITunes etc won't care.

Lard
12-11-2008, 07:28 PM
There is absolutely no good reason for DLC.
Period.

Digital distribution is primarily about control (who controls your use and how) and sales (making you buy the same things over and over again for different platforms).

3Suns - you are absolutely, unequivicably, 100% *wrong* on this issue.
There is *no* room for discussion on this.

DLC *will* kill gaming.

3Suns
12-11-2008, 10:45 PM
We see the future, but the future tends to be far further back then we want it to be. .... They may start selling "full" games online in the next generation, but they won't go exclusive like you're talking to well after they've established in the hearts and minds of the people that it'll work.

Jedi Hampster, I really like that first statement that to which I have added italics. That definitely describes a good portion of how tech is adopted.

As for your second statement, seriously, right after I posted this, the rumor of Fable 2 becoming available via DD started flying. It may be sooner than you think.

Many good points made in the posts. I don't really have anything more to say as I kinda shot my entire wad in the original. Thanks for reading and replying, and that goes for you too, Lard. :) I still think I am right. ;)

FortunesPlatinum
12-12-2008, 08:52 AM
There is absolutely no good reason for DLC.
Period.

Digital distribution is primarily about control (who controls your use and how) and sales (making you buy the same things over and over again for different platforms).

3Suns - you are absolutely, unequivicably, 100% *wrong* on this issue.
There is *no* room for discussion on this.

DLC *will* kill gaming.


I strongly agree with you. I believe DLC/digital distribution are the death knell of the current industry. I need something tangible for my money. When a company is able to control when, how, where, how many times, and onto what I can download my purchased software there is a problem. I didn't buy Bioshock or Spore because of the install limit on the disc; why should 2K or EA be able to tell me how many times I can install a program onto my PC. It's not my problem pirate their garbage; when I pay $50 to $60 for a game I damn well better be able to install it as many times as I please.

Flatpicker
12-12-2008, 09:02 AM
I strongly agree with you. I believe DLC/digital distribution are the death knell of the current industry. I need something tangible for my money. When a company is able to control when, how, where, how many times, and onto what I can download my purchased software there is a problem. I didn't buy Bioshock or Spore because of the install limit on the disc; why should 2K or EA be able to tell me how many times I can install a program onto my PC. It's not my problem pirate their garbage; when I pay $50 to $60 for a game I damn well better be able to install it as many times as I please.


I'm on the other side of the fence here. I don't need a physical chotchky anymore. But I'm not a PC player so DRM and install limits are not something I care about. Nor is resale, as I don't tend to sell used games.
I believe that DD will destroy the current retail model. I have no problem with this as it would limit the Gamespots and Walmarts from dictating content.
Streaming Video on demand thru Netflix and other services are showing the viability of the market. It will only increase as we go along.

Stormwatcher
12-12-2008, 10:34 AM
There is absolutely no good reason for DLC.
Period.

Digital distribution is primarily about control (who controls your use and how) and sales (making you buy the same things over and over again for different platforms).

3Suns - you are absolutely, unequivicably, 100% *wrong* on this issue.
There is *no* room for discussion on this.

DLC *will* kill gaming.

Wow, I'm floored with the sheer arrogance and ignorance in this post. It's just pure concentrated stupid.

For instance, I love Steam because it lets me buy games that weren't released in Brazil. And it frees me from having to juggle dozens of CDs or DVDs everytime I wanna play a different game. My point being, hey, there it is, two real world arguments PRO digital distribution.

I'm not even gonna mention awesome things like XBLA, Playstation Store and Virtual Console, because I have no current gen consoles, but

I mean, people can be against DD, sure, they're entitled to their opinions... But the way you worded your shit, damn...