X360 - 3 million in 3 months?

[bean19]

Gamespot (http://www.gamespot.com) recently reported Microsoft's sales expectations (http://www.gamespot.com/news/6139468.html) for the first three months after launch of the soon to be released Xbox 360.

The latest example of salesmanship came today, courtesy of Bryan Lee, the chief financial officer of Microsoft's newly established Entertainment and Devices subdivision. In a presentation to the Harris Nesbitt Media & Entertainment Conference, the executive gave a very rosy forecast for the console. "I'm very proud to announce that we think through the first 90 days of launch...we expect to have sold 2.75 to 3 million consoles worldwide," said Lee.
The article goes on to discuss information interesting to fans of the business side of the industry. While it is not news that Microsoft expects to lose money on the actual sale of the X360 consoles and make up much of that loss from the sale of games and peripherals, the executive did not discuss profit or loss numbers. However, Lee did manage to brag about the expectations for total revenue:

Lee pegged total revenue generated by all Xbox 360 hardware and software at "well over" $1.5 billion in the console's first three months on the market. "I can't think of many other, if any other, products that have had an initial launch that have sold $1 1/2 billion to consumers in their first 90 days," he boasted.
These numbers actually seem quite low to me, and make me worry that the expected shortages may be even more severe than the two million that were expected. Keep in mind that three months from launch is February 22nd. If they expect to sell out of the two million units that have been reported as expected by Christmas time, two additional months to only sell 750,000 to 1 million units seems to be an extraordinarily conservative estimate. I've got my conspiracy theorist hat on, but I think this tends to indicate that they might not be able to ship those two million units before Christmas. Let's all hope I'm as wrong about this as I was about arsenic in postage stamp glue.

[AversionFX]

No. way. in. hell.

Did either the PS2 or the original Xbox sell this many units in the first 90 days of their release?

If not, what makes anyone think they'll sell than many units of a more expensive console?

[fitbabits]

No. way. in. hell.

Did either the PS2 or the original Xbox sell this many units in the first 90 days of their release?

If not, what makes anyone think they'll sell than many units of a more expensive console?
Three words - Simultaneous. Worldwide. Launch.

[AversionFX]

Eh, I'll believe it when I see it.

[Atorak]

Three more words. Cupcakes. Widgets. Snozberries.

[AversionFX]

Three more words. Cupcakes. Widgets. Snozberries.

For the win!

[fitbabits]

For the win!
You got the formatting all wrong!
For. The. Win.

[Double T]

My Friend got the dreaded 'call' last night from EB. They are only getting in 2 360's without hard drives (which is what he ordered because those preorders were really low. He was just going to buy the HD seperately) and there were 6 preorders (are you kidding me? Do people not realize that it's the same damn machine? Sure cables aside, you really aren't missing anything if you piece meal it especially if you can't get the HD version now).

At any rate, I honestly don't care, we were going to have a big get together with friends the weekend of the release but if he doesn't get the 360, we'll just PSP some GTA and other games.

[bapenguin]

Rumor as it there will be a steady supply of 360's following the European and Japanese launch.

With the holiday timing I can easily see Microsoft Accomplish this.

[The Great Gatsby]

You got the formatting all wrong!
For. The. Win.

You're wrong too, buddy.

FTW!

[AversionFX]

You got the formatting all wrong!
For. The. Win.

That was so 10 minutes ago. Get with the times :(

[Xerxes]

Aversion I'm sure they have some decent pre-order info to go on. Also that was five years ago. Four or Five years ago. Back then I didn't have money to buy systems on launch day. Ok I did have money, and I didn't buy a Xbox on launch but that's besides the point. A year early though, if not just a few months, I couldn't have swung that. Gamers are getting older so pockets are little different than before. Most of us are older and have money. But I'm not buying no damn xbox 360. I was pissed off at how just a few months after the xbox launched a damn price drop came.

[51|RandoM]

Three words - Simultaneous. Worldwide. Launch.

Three Words - No Must Haves.

I'm still waiting for the game to be announced that turns around my lack of interest in the 360.

[AversionFX]

Aversion I'm sure they have some decent pre-order info to go on. Also that was five years ago. Four or Five years ago. Back then I didn't have money to buy systems on launch day. Ok I did have money, and I didn't buy a Xbox on launch but that's besides the point. A year early though, if not just a few months, I couldn't have swung that. Gamers are getting older so pockets are little different than before. Most of us are older and have money. But I'm not buying no damn xbox 360. I was pissed off at how just a few months after the xbox launched a damn price drop came.

I suppose so, but still. The average person doesn't have $400 to just drop on a 360. That's not just "something you buy for the kids," that's a pretty steep investment. Not to mention that games are going to be $60 a pop with the new generation of games.

If I'm wrong, feel free to correct me. But $400 is still a good chunk of change.

[goc_sin]

I think this year parents are going to be a little more conservative about buying Christmas presents that cost $400+, especially with high gas cost, high heating cost, and poor economy right now. I think it will sell well for the older crowd guaranteed. We'll have to wait see how parents are going to react.

[Achilles]

3 million is a reasonable number for a worldwide launch. They could probably sell 8 million if they had them, but they won't.Three more words. Cupcakes. Widgets. Snozberries.Snozberry, who ever heard of a snozberry?

[Xerxes]

I'm sure there is enough frat boys, rap star, as well as xbox gamers willing to jump on the bandwagon asap. Not to mention mountian dew give aways. Hey get this, Live is going to have 3million players if they can sell that many boxes. Numbers are as good as smugded.

[Serapth]

I have to assume that XBox's target demographic isnt so much Volvo Mom buying a christmas present for little Timmy. At launch its the 18+ crowd that MS is aiming at. Dont get me wrong, enough parents are going to buy there spoiled little brat one of these systems for Christmas to push a good holiday sale, but again, thats not their main customers. ( For proof, take a look through the non-sports game lineup, and tell me how many games are rated E(veryone) as opposed to M(ature)?

If you take that demographic as fact, really whats 400$? Im sorry, im not uber-weathy by any means, but unless something shitty happenned in my life recently I can always scrounge up 400$. Even if I cant, I have what, 3 or 4 credit cards that could easily float 400$ until I have the ability to pay it off. Ironically, its the christmas launch window thats going to hurt people in that age group more then anything. Christmas has to be about the *worst* time of year for people with disposable income... stupid gifts seem to suck your pockets dry.

Quick show of hands from the non student crowd out on EA ( no offence to students, but your all either broke ( i was! ) or spoiled! :D ). Is 400$ a really outragous sum for you. Im not asking is the XBox360 worth 400$, im just asking how hard it would be for you to come up with it.

[askheaves]

Is 400$ a really outragous sum for you. Im not asking is the XBox360 worth 400$, im just asking how hard it would be for you to come up with it.

27 year old engineer here. I'm guessing that given the extra 2 months I'll have to save up for it after launch, I shouldn't have any trouble scrounging up $400 for my guaranteed launch-day preorder.

BTW, great point about Christmas being a horrible launch time. Sony may have this one right launching in spring (right after the traditional post-holiday game drought), and then having all summer (bored summer-job having kids) and then the lead-in to the holiday season to grow a user base making that Christmas be a huge boon in game sales... the part they make money on.

[Fontainne]

As a gainfully employed individual, 400 dollars is a meager amount at best. Even if I "had" to save up for it I could do it in a single paycheck (paid every 2 weeks) and still manage my 100 dollars a week food budget and all of my revolving bills.

Though I chose to take the other route and have wracked up close to 1200 dollars in trade-in's (they're 30% extra deal thats going on right now is great)at EB so my disposable income isn't hit by launch and can instead spend it towards inevitable christmas presents.

[fitbabits]

Quick show of hands from the non student crowd out on EA ( no offence to students, but your all either broke ( i was! ) or spoiled! :D ). Is 400$ a really outragous sum for you. Im not asking is the XBox360 worth 400$, im just asking how hard it would be for you to come up with it.
37-year-old professional. I paid it off in installments a while ago. $400 up front would be hard, but spread out it's not so hard.

[bapenguin]

Anyone see this (http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=987&topic=24473569)?

Sounds like Best Buy and Wal-Mart paid extra for the bulk of the 360's, might be why all the shortage complaints have only come from EB/Gamestops.

[fitbabits]

Anyone see this (http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=987&topic=24473569)?

Sounds like Best Buy and Wal-Mart paid extra for the bulk of the 360's, might be why all the shortage complaints have only come from EB/Gamestops.
Look for the 11/20/05 Best Buy weekly ad to be devoted exclusively to the Xbox 360.

[Xerxes]

I got me a entry level IT job after college. $400 would be $100 short of my entertainment allowance in my budget. I think it would be worth it if I wanted it now.

[Schnoogs]

As a gainfully employed individual, 400 dollars is a meager amount at best. Even if I "had" to save up for it I could do it in a single paycheck (paid every 2 weeks) and still manage my 100 dollars a week food budget and all of my revolving bills.

Though I chose to take the other route and have wracked up close to 1200 dollars in trade-in's (they're 30% extra deal thats going on right now is great)at EB so my disposable income isn't hit by launch and can instead spend it towards inevitable christmas presents.

Good for you...I'm sure the millions of kids who aren't gainfully employeed who will have to beg their parents for one will sleep easier knowing that you got one.

Your point??!?!?

[fitbabits]

Good for you...I'm sure the millions of kids who aren't gainfully employeed who will have to beg their parents for one will sleep easier knowing that you got one.

Your point??!?!?
I believe Fontaine was replying to the following question that was posed by Serapth:

Quick show of hands from the non student crowd out on EA ( no offence to students, but your all either broke ( i was! ) or spoiled! ). Is 400$ a really outragous sum for you. Im not asking is the XBox360 worth 400$, im just asking how hard it would be for you to come up with it.

[Magnanimous Gnome]

Look for the 11/20/05 Best Buy weekly ad to be devoted exclusively to the Xbox 360.


Exclusively? Is it going to be a single sheet of paper printed on both sides? Heck, maybe even one side, with the other side just a big pic of Joanna Dark's scary *new* look?

[fitbabits]

Exclusively? Is it going to be a single sheet of paper printed on both sides? Heck, maybe even one side, with the other side just a big pic of Joanna Dark's scary *new* look?
I'm guessing that your post was an attempt at sarcasm. What it actually read like was a Microsoft hater on a trolling expedition.

[Dracula-X]

Good for you...I'm sure the millions of kids who aren't gainfully employeed who will have to beg their parents for one will sleep easier knowing that you got one.

Your point??!?!?
3 Words:

Reading. Is. Fundamental.

[netcraazzy]

Quick show of hands from the non student crowd out on EA ( no offence to students, but your all either broke ( i was! ) or spoiled! :D ). Is 400$ a really outragous sum for you. Im not asking is the XBox360 worth 400$, im just asking how hard it would be for you to come up with it.

Well I just graduated from college and got an entry level IT job so not making the BIG bucks but I'm still picking one of these up on launch. I'm probably going to be spending $500 after you add a game and 2nd controler to the total cost so it is a pretty big expense, not something I would just throw away on an impulse buy for sure. I've been prepairing for the expense since I pre ordered my 360 in June though so not like I'll be spending my rent money or something crazy like that.

[Serapth]

3 Words:

Reading. Is. Fundamental.

Isnt that technically 4 words, 1 number and 4 pieces of punctuation? :p

[The Iron Weasel]

I'm going to save for a 360, after I get my copy of Quake 4, it'll only be like a month and a bit. (I might buy some random stuff in between, but other then that, notta till i have like 600 bucks)

[Magnanimous Gnome]

I'm guessing that your post was an attempt at sarcasm. What it actually read like was a Microsoft hater on a trolling expedition.


Oh Fitty, I love you baby.

I was trying to be sarcastic, but I realize it didn't come out all that well. I just don't see how Best Buy's entire AD can be devoted to the 360. Their ad is generally several pages, right? There really isn't that much coming out for the 360 around launch. I think one page, even one side of a page, would cover it.

[fitbabits]

Oh Fitty, I love you baby.

I was trying to be sarcastic, but I realize it didn't come out all that well. I just don't see how Best Buy's entire AD can be devoted to the 360. Their ad is generally several pages, right? There really isn't that much coming out for the 360 around launch. I think one page, even one side of a page, would cover it.
And I love you, too! I'm glad my sarcasm detector is still working then!

I heard about the deal with Microsoft and Best Buy some time ago (I think I mentioned it on here at the time) and I heard from the same source that part of the deal involved Best Buy devoting the weekly ad to promote the launch of the console and the games. I could very well be wrong, and I get where you're coming from, but to say that one page would cover the launch of the console and the launch titles is iffy.

Thinking more about it, what may happen is that the 360 and games will feature prominently throughout the whole ad that week (like a major DVD release - you know, it's shown on all the televisions that are advertised in the circular). Still, we'll see come November 20th.

[Magnanimous Gnome]

And I love you, too! I'm glad my sarcasm detector is still working then!

I heard about the deal with Microsoft and Best Buy some time ago (I think I mentioned it on here at the time) and I heard from the same source that part of the deal involved Best Buy devoting the weekly ad to promote the launch of the console and the games. I could very well be wrong, and I get where you're coming from, but to say that one page would cover the launch of the console and the launch titles is iffy.

Thinking more about it, what may happen is that the 360 and games will feature prominently throughout the whole ad that week (like a major DVD release - you know, it's shown on all the televisions that are advertised in the circular). Still, we'll see come November 20th.

Ah, that makes sense. I suppose I could also see them having some "reviews" of games or something in there as well, although those would assuredly be very biased. Two more weeks and we'll know for sure.

Well I won't know, because I'll be in small town Thanksgiving hell, where Best Buy is but a dream.