Gates Anticipates a Format-less Future

[JediSanf]

This past September Microsoft and Intel both enlisted with the HD-DVD army, so why hasn't there been an official announcement regarding a HD-Xbox360?

GamesIndustry.biz (http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=12398) reports that it's because Gates doesn't see a future in it, or any physical format for that matter.

In a speech delivered to a packed crowd at Washington DC's Howard University, Gates stated: "The format that's under discussion right now, HD versus Blu-ray, that's simply the last physical format we'll ever have."

[Pnorcio]

This from Mr. "640kb ought to be enough for anybody". Please, Bill.

[gojira]

"Even videos in the future will either be on a disk in your pocket or over the Internet, and therefore far more convenient for you."
I wonder if by "a disk in you pocket" he means a mini-disc or a small hard drive like the iPod?

Either way, I'm with Pnorcio. While download and HDs will be far more important in the future, I can't see them completely displacing a disc you buy at a retail outlet.

[FunkyPoopMonkey]

This from Mr. "640kb ought to be enough for anybody". Please, Bill.
I was about to say that.

[Rangoth]

I'm still waiting for Microsoft Bob to deliver upon the great user interface promises that I was told it would.

[Deathbane27]

We'll never have 100% broadband penetration, so we'll always need a cheaply-producable physical distribution medium.

Okay, probably not "never", but it's going to be at least 10 years off, and that's another format after HD-DVD/Bluray to worry about.

[sTubbs]

This from Mr. "640kb ought to be enough for anybody". Please, Bill.
Yea, and I am SURE that you could have more accurately predicted such a thing back then. :rolleyes:


Seriously though, I do not see why people are so reluctant to adopt full digital distribution. I understand where people are coming from when they say they like to have the full retail package, but I wam willing to accept digital distribution completely. Why? Because I believe it will give the industry a much needed kick in the ass by cutting out the bullshit business men standing between us and better games. As digitial distribution becomes more popular, independent development houses will be able to become much more plausible and competitive as they will not have to worry about manufacturing and shipping their games, which usually requires a big publishing house to do. Also, things such as episodic games will finally become feasible, which will also allow smaller devs to emerge and take more risks. Games should also become cheaper (I know in my heart they will not) because there will no longer be that pesky manufacturing and shipping stuff to worry about.

As much as STEAM is hated by many right now, it is only the beginning of this new possibility. I understand that the 360 may not be the best platform to start this revolution unless MS allows it to be relatively open, but it is time for something to happen in this department, and I am thrilled to see a major player throwing around the possibility. Now all we need to figure out is that pesky bandwidth problem. Bit Torrent is fine in its current state for downloading tv shows and the like, but I still would not want to use it for multi-gig games.

[Draft]

Good, bring on the digital age. Let me buy my data in 0s and 1s, the way it was born.

[PIPBoy3000]

As storage increases, interesting uses for it will be found. Nothing quite beats the bandwidth of a truck full of hard drives driving down a freeway at 60 mph. Broadband doesn't solve all the problems, though it helps with many of our current ones.

[Klade]

I'm with stubbs. The next gen (after the 360) is at least 4 years out right? Well think about broadband distribution 4 years ago. And right now you can get broadband cheaper then you can get AOL.

What some people here are forgetting is that it doesn't need to have 100% or even close to that kind of penetration for downloadable content to become standard. You just need to have the people that buy consoles close to 100% and thats a whole different market.

[RMan]

Seriously though, I do not see why people are so reluctant to adopt full digital distribution.
Never underestimate the power of conditioning.

[Heretic Machine]

Okay, probably not "never", but it's going to be at least 10 years off, and that's another format after HD-DVD/Bluray to worry about.

This is my problem with the whole "format wars" bullshit. Formats are supposed to last longer than 10 friggin years. I'm with Bill on this one, iTunes will be selling videos soon enough, and I'm tempted to switch over to that rather than DVD's, and will do so if it's cheap enough.

[Zeal]

Too bad he's 100% right. A fully digital future is inevitable.

[Rommel]

Didn't he say that before the web made things graphical in nature?

[rein]

I'm with stubbs. The next gen (after the 360) is at least 4 years out right? Well think about broadband distribution 4 years ago. And right now you can get broadband cheaper then you can get AOL.

What some people here are forgetting is that it doesn't need to have 100% or even close to that kind of penetration for downloadable content to become standard. You just need to have the people that buy consoles close to 100% and thats a whole different market.

The problem is that there is no infrastructure that will support 100% broadband across the entire world. The 20% Xbox live penetration should give you an idea that these "broadband" gamers you speak of are not any where near that 100% mark. How long will the next standard last? If we are talking about consoles about 5-6 years? Maybe the generation after the next generation. There is no way console gamers will be close to that 100% broadband mark this generation, or the next.

[Wonka]

I agree with Bill, Stubbs and Klade on this.

Episodic content will be one of the ways that games become liberated from the gigantic production budgets that enslave so many development teams today. Being able to get an idea into the marketplace and let people try it out will be a huge plus for new kinds of games to be tried out (without bankrupting publishers). Getting rid of discs will simply happen at some point along the way as the marketplace embraces this new way of selling content, and online games become the norm instead of the exception... I think this will happen sooner rather than later.

And the whole thing about 640k is a poor ad hominem attack. Its cute to say, but it does not pass muster as a rational argument.

[rein]

This is my problem with the whole "format wars" bullshit. Formats are supposed to last longer than 10 friggin years. I'm with Bill on this one, iTunes will be selling videos soon enough, and I'm tempted to switch over to that rather than DVD's, and will do so if it's cheap enough.


man, I can't wait till itunes gets a good selection of movies and videos. If the price of the tv episodes is any indication it is going to be affordable. If they could keep it cheaper than a dvd purchase and a tad more expensive than a rental I think they are on to something. That being said, that still doesn't get us much closer to all media being distributed online. It just isn't going to be possible in the next 10 years. Hell, even if it could be done in 10 years it will take another 10 to get most people to adopt the idea. I think it will happen someday... ..but someday far off. Maybe I will be able to download movies when I am sitting in the retirement home.

[Wonka]

The problem is that there is no infrastructure that will support 100% broadband across the entire world. The 20% Xbox live penetration should give you an idea that these "broadband" gamers you speak of are not any where near that 100% mark. How long will the next standard last? If we are talking about consoles about 5-6 years? Maybe the generation after the next generation. There is no way console gamers will be close to that 100% broadband mark this generation, or the next.

20% LIVE! is probably generous. But broadband in the US (which oddly is NOT one of the best places on earth for penetration of something like broadband), is already above 50% as of a couple years back. You have to figure that the low Xbox broadband connectivity was probably more due to the subscription fee than to the absence of broadband.

It there are 30 million Xboxs in a few years, and 40% of them are online (no fee for downloads this time), that would be about 12 million potential customers... Those are NOT bad odds if you want to invest a small amount to prototype a new kind of game and sell it in small pieces (which greatly reduces risk).

[JediSanf]

I for one don't mind digital distribution but DRM is still a huge concern for me. There's something reassuring about having a physical medium that I can take over to a friends house and I don't think Gate's vision includes that capability.

Having said that, I can't wait until the production houses can bypass the cable companies. Perhaps then the Fireflys of the next-gen will actually have a chance. Hell, maybe they could even bring Firefly back. I'd pay episodically for that.

[ldi222]

This thread hurts my brain, Im not willing to give up control over my CD's. The RIAA did enough to DVD ads and btw, Steam sucks, a digital distribution future means admin rights of your own box and Im never going to be willing to give that up. However Im all for episodic content over xbox live. They can have that box just dont go after my PC.

[Heretic Machine]

20% LIVE! is probably generous. But broadband in the US (which oddly is NOT one of the best places on earth for penetration of something like broadband), is already above 50% as of a couple years back. You have to figure that the low Xbox broadband connectivity was probably more due to the subscription fee than to the absence of broadband.

Right on the money. I know plenty of people with broadband and an XBOX (myself included) who do not subscribe to XBOX Live.

[Wonka]

I for one don't mind digital distribution but DRM is still a huge concern for me. There's something reassuring about having a physical medium that I can take over to a friends house and I don't think Gate's vision includes that capability.

Having said that, I can't wait until the production houses can bypass the cable companies. Perhaps then the Fireflys of the next-gen will actually have a chance. Hell, maybe they could even bring Firefly back. I'd pay episodically for that.

As I understand it, this kind of DRM stuff is a lot of why the Xbox 360 has that removable HDD. In other words, you can snap off the HDD and take it with you to your friends house if you downloaded something cool for it.

I think that this IS a very good concern for you to have however. I have it too. On the Xbox, I bought some content and then got burned when that unit died. I still sometimes play PGR2, but I don't get to race in the expansion packs even though I bought them. And that just sucks. With the Xbox, there was no backup or other means to recover your paid content if the unit you saved it to should die. However with the 360, I suspect they will have changed this by tethering the content to your LIVE! account. That way, you could back it up, and yet the content could not "proliferate" beyond the box of the person who bought it... This would allow MS to let you copy your content to a memory card, or another HDD or whatever, since you can only used it if you are logged in. We shall see if I am right about this, but I am hopeful because they absolutely HAVE to fix this in order to be able to have paid content work. Nobody is going to keep buying content if they can't even take steps to back it up.

[TrackZero]

Ugh, I still want to just stick with DVD. I don't care if I get some multi-disc games. It's too early for another format.

[TrackZero]

As I understand it, this kind of DRM stuff is a lot of why the Xbox 360 has that removable HDD. In other words, you can snap off the HDD and take it with you to your friends house if you downloaded something cool for it.

I think that this IS a very good concern for you to have however. I have it too. On the Xbox, I bought some content and then got burned when that unit died. I still sometimes play PGR2, but I don't get to race in the expansion packs even though I bought them. And that just sucks. With the Xbox, there was no backup or other means to recover your paid content if the unit you saved it to should die. However with the 360, I suspect they will have changed this by tethering the content to your LIVE! account. That way, you could back it up, and yet the content could not "proliferate" beyond the box of the person who bought it... This would allow MS to let you copy your content to a memory card, or another HDD or whatever, since you can only used it if you are logged in. We shall see if I am right about this, but I am hopeful because they absolutely HAVE to fix this in order to be able to have paid content work. Nobody is going to keep buying content if they can't even take steps to back it up.

That's tre bizzare man. Once I paid for extras over Xbox live, I've always been able to re-download them for free if they got erased. (Even when I switched over to a new Xbox from my old one.)

[Heretic Machine]

Ya Wonka, they usually keep some kind of record of you if you buy something digital... With the XBOX it's your XBOX Live account. With iTunes it's your iTunes account, with dtrpg it's your... You get the idea.

[Nintendo Revolution]

I was about to say that.

I think just about everybody was thinking it. Bill Gates also stated that the internet was a fad in the early 90s.

[Last of the Red Hot Mamas]

The 640k quote is bogus.

[ElectricMonk]

I wonder if by "a disk in you pocket" he means a mini-disc or a small hard drive like the iPod?

Either way, I'm with Pnorcio. While download and HDs will be far more important in the future, I can't see them completely displacing a disc you buy at a retail outlet.

i can. a streaming-only format is the only way i can see piracy being controlled.

the main thing i can see stopping it from happening in hd-dvd's lifespan is we need faster broadband to support it. i have some of the fastest cable in north america (i live in canada) and even if you can sustain 300 kb/sec it's still only 25% fast enough to stream hd-dvd content. and 8 years ago (my god am i that old?) it was the exact same speed, maybe even a little faster then.

i really dont think the outcome will affect consumers much anyway. hd-dvd/blu-ray combo players will become the standard.

[Dirty Harry]

The 640k quote is bogus.
its a shame it has been proven that the quote is infact real. The quote was said during a netherland or german interview and how it got translated was what is so famous by everyone.

[Last of the Red Hot Mamas]

Do you have a cite for that?

[Deadend]

The problem with all the server side crap, is that it's server side. It can go down, there can be problems, even if your connected.

Whoever invents a P2P solution for streaming content and DRM will become rich. Very rich.

You sure Itunes is linked to your account? I heard it wasn't, but I have never downloaded anything off there as DRM gets on my nerves as it's intrusive and counter-productive for legitimate uses.

Wait... whoever comes up with a system that can prevent pirates, AND does not fuck the user AND can be fast, possibly reliable too will become richer than Bill Gates... unless Microsoft comes up with the system.

[trip1eX]

We'll probably always need physical formats to back up data. I'm sure in the future tho physical media will be less prevalent for games, music and movies.

We're still need bigger pipes to people's homes to make downloading games and movies more practical.

Gates is only saying that now to try and ice the PS3 anyway.

[Wonka]

i can. a streaming-only format is the only way i can see piracy being controlled.

the main thing i can see stopping it from happening in hd-dvd's lifespan is we need faster broadband to support it. i have some of the fastest cable in north america (i live in canada) and even if you can sustain 300 kb/sec it's still only 25% fast enough to stream hd-dvd content. and 8 years ago (my god am i that old?) it was the exact same speed, maybe even a little faster then.

i really dont think the outcome will affect consumers much anyway. hd-dvd/blu-ray combo players will become the standard.

I have it on pretty good authority that streaming HD over IP on very little bandwidth has been cracked my MS and that it looks great to boot. But since I am not about to share my source and you will therefore all call me a liar. And that is a fine thing fo you to do, since I am unwilling to substantiate my claims on this. But there it is. Believe it or don't believe it, it's your call.

Anyhow, I really don't think that Bill is playing the prophet on this one. I think that he has good reason to believe that content will stop being delivered on discs quite soon.

[Mason]

This has nothing to do with DRM, since DRM is independent of the transport format. In fact, online distribution can be made far more secure than printed data, since hackers only have to break the data distributed through a physical medium once, whereas online distribution schemes like Steam have the potential to keep things relatively secure. Nothing is perfect, but by definition content providers have a better chance of keeping ahead of hackers if they don't have to expect a single push of data to remain secure indefinitely.

I certainly hope this is the last generation of rotating optical formats. I think the world will always need cheap storage for backup or secure transmission (doesn't matter how secure of a VPN you've got, some things you just don't send across the network). Solid state storage will hopefully be around before too long.

But honestly, there's no such thing as secure code, data, or media on a current PC, so expecting that as a criterion is naive. Realistically speaking, if every app, game, movie, and album went to pure network distribution tomorrow, the piracy situation wouldn't get even a little worse. Visit a torrent site. Everything is there, for anyone who wants it. Nothing can really get any worse when it comes to piracy.

[Mason]

So you're saying MS has developed a codec that is approximately 1500% more efficient than VC-1 (and that's a pretty lowball estimate, since it assumes the 300 KB/s sustanied connection mentioned by ElectricMonk)? You're right, I don't believe it.

Yeah, people have been singing that song for years. Company X has the amazing codec that lets you watch DVD quality video over a 56k line! And then...silence.

There is a certain irreducible amount of complexity to video that makes such claims ludicrous.

[Last of the Red Hot Mamas]

Sorry I deleted my post. The 1500% figure is probably high because it was based on the 36Mb/s maximum bitrate for HD DVD; the actual average bitrate would be a good deal lower. But even the best-case scenario (I'm guessing 15Mb/s, and that's probably generous) would require a codec 600% more efficient to get equivalent quality on a sustained 300 KB/s connection (and that assumes you've got no audio with your video). I don't doubt that codecs will improve and greater efficiency will be achieved, but I find it pretty hard to believe they will improve to such a drastic extent anytime soon -- hell, from what I understand VC-1 is "only" about twice as efficient as MPEG2. There are some other comments in Gates' speech ("In the next decade, there'll be a shortage of great software engineers") that seem to suggest that he's taking a more long-term view.

[fushi]

The day they stop selling boxed games will be the day I'll stop buying games altogether. Not kidding.

[Achilles]

Gates is only saying that now to try and ice the PS3 anyway.Except that's exactly what Sony is talking about as well if you paid attention to their E3 conference. Their supposed plan is to be able to upload and download movies from the internet and connect the world with PS3s. That was infact the whole idea behind the Cell chip, that people could share processing potential or some unrealized thing.

[Last of the Red Hot Mamas]

Has Sony has ever talked about downloading feature-length HD movies to the PS3? I can't find that in any of the E3 coverage I've looked at. They mentioned some goofy shit about allowing users to upload their movies to "online Cell storage" (whatever that means) and upconverting them to HD, but nothing as ambitious as what Gates is referring to. That would be kind of a stupid move on Sony's part since it would just cannibalize Blu-ray movie sales (unless the HD movies look like crap, which is really the only viable way they could be made available for download over today's Internet connections, and even then you'd be talking about multi-gigabyte downloads).

[TrackZero]

The day they stop selling boxed games will be the day I'll stop buying games altogether. Not kidding.

Then it's nothing but good old fashioned pirating after that eh?

[TrackZero]

Has Sony has ever talked about downloading feature-length HD movies to the PS3? I can't find that in any of the E3 coverage I've looked at. They mentioned some goofy shit about allowing users to upload their movies to "online Cell storage" (whatever that means) and upconverting them to HD, but nothing as ambitious as what Gates is referring to. That would be kind of a stupid move on Sony's part since it would just cannibalize Blu-ray movie sales (unless the HD movies look like crap, which is really the only viable way they could be made available for download over today's Internet connections, and even then you'd be talking about multi-gigabyte downloads).

No, they were saying it. I remember it clearly. It was one of the first things they were saying about the system, this was just pre-E3 as far as I remember. Though they've probably shut up about it since they've got the blu-ray fight on their hands.

[bapenguin]

Has Sony has ever talked about downloading feature-length HD movies to the PS3? I can't find that in any of the E3 coverage I've looked at. They mentioned some goofy shit about allowing users to upload their movies to "online Cell storage" (whatever that means) and upconverting them to HD, but nothing as ambitious as what Gates is referring to. That would be kind of a stupid move on Sony's part since it would just cannibalize Blu-ray movie sales (unless the HD movies look like crap, which is really the only viable way they could be made available for download over today's Internet connections, and even then you'd be talking about multi-gigabyte downloads).

It wasn't necessarily movies from them. It was that you could rip your movies to the PS3 upload them and have them "aged" into HD quality to watch them later.

[Twigz'N'Berries]

We'll never have 100% broadband penetration, so we'll always need a cheaply-producable physical distribution medium.

Okay, probably not "never", but it's going to be at least 10 years off, and that's another format after HD-DVD/Bluray to worry about.
They are running connections through powerlines...powerlines! Once they have that expanded, everyone will be connected.

Except BillyBob Podunk living in anus crack Arkansas, but somehow, I don't hink he was the target demographic. So, no 100% penetration is right. But when have we had 100% penetration of any tech product?

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2003/08/19/ireland_to_trial_broadband_over/
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/thr/television/feature_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1000913310

[Sykus]

Welcome to the future, where the consumer owns nothing.

[JediSanf]

The 1500% figure is probably high because it was based on the 36Mb/s maximum bitrate for HD DVD; the actual average bitrate would be a good deal lower. But even the best-case scenario (I'm guessing 15Mb/s, and that's probably generous) would require a codec 600% more efficient to get equivalent quality on a sustained 300 KB/s connection (and that assumes you've got no audio with your video).

The bandwitdh issue is actually not a big concern. The current land speed record using IPv4 on the Abilene backbone is 7.21GB/sec (source (http://http://lsr.internet2.edu/history.html) ). More than enough to cover any numbers I've seen discussed here.

[Namielus]

Doesn't everyone see that we have already subscribed to this internet enabled format. I don't know what the representative body of people here play game wise, but I'm guessing everyone has tango'ed with MMO's a little bit, and in an MMO you trust the dev company completely not to go under / to have server uptime / to maintain your data. All your character data / world data is saved offsite at a location you have absolutely no access to, nor any legal standing to (Read your EULA :).)

We have already bought into this system of internet distributed iterative content releases, how far off until its more profitable to distrubite one shot packages online only?

[falak]

So in the future we'll all be pissed off about file formats instead of hardware formats? Yay!

[Gel214th]

I guess the developing world,where broadband certainly is not near 100%,will be completely left out of this 'vision' of the future. Europe will reach this a lot sooner than America, which is sadly lagging behind the broadband revolution when stacked up against other developed countries.

The fact is that HD-DVD and BluRay will be around for the life of the Xbox360.

[JediSanf]

So in the future we'll all be pissed off about file formats instead of hardware formats? Yay!

And speaking of formats, what's so great about VC-1 and how did Microsoft get it included in the standard if they don't care about the medium?

[Heretic Machine]

The fact is that HD-DVD and BluRay will be around for the life of the Xbox360.

The fact is that HD-DVD and BluRay will never get any sort of install base in the XBOX 360's life.

[Wonka]

The fact is that HD-DVD and BluRay will never get any sort of install base in the XBOX 360's life.

Now that is a statement that I am compelled to agree with.

[carneconcarne]

if you guys think ubiquitous 100MBps wireless broadband is going to 1) blanket the US within four years, and 2) be cheap enough that every digital device owner will subscribe to it, I think you're wrong. Also, do you think the Best buys and wal marts of the world are going to quit selling digital media in their stores?

[Mason]

Welcome to the future, where the consumer owns nothing.

You already don't own the data on the DVDs you buy. Nor do you own games or software, you've simply licensed a copy, the exact same as if you acquired it online. That's what makes it legal for Valve or Blizzard to ban your CD-key if you act up. Sure you own some disks, but your license to play the content of the disks has been revoked.

Like I said, physical formats don't give the user any more rights, just more liability. A lot of you who have a kneejerk reaction against this really don't understand how little rights you currently have.

[Mason]

Has Sony has ever talked about downloading feature-length HD movies to the PS3? I can't find that in any of the E3 coverage I've looked at. They mentioned some goofy shit about allowing users to upload their movies to "online Cell storage" (whatever that means) and upconverting them to HD, but nothing as ambitious as what Gates is referring to. That would be kind of a stupid move on Sony's part since it would just cannibalize Blu-ray movie sales (unless the HD movies look like crap, which is really the only viable way they could be made available for download over today's Internet connections, and even then you'd be talking about multi-gigabyte downloads).

Wait, those words you said didn't make sense. Upconverting? The only way to get HD resolution from a DVD is to interpolate the missing pixels, which any playback hardware could probably do on the fly. No different than watching an AVI full-screen, which of course makes it fit the desired resolution but doesn't really add any new information. And people have been watching DVD movies on HDTVs for quite some time now, which is all that this would amount to. Am I terribly mistaken on any of this?

And unless Sony has a magic plan to remaster all of the world's movies in Blu-Ray and then transmit the new version to whomever uploads an old DVD version (which is basically crazy for lots of reasons, no studio in the world would approve of this), their service doesn't make sense. And yeah, uploading an MPEG-2 encoded film, interpolating it up to a HD resolution, then reencoding it to transmit back would result in a film that looks pretty horrible.

So...I'm confused. I think something probably wasn't translated well, because these are some outlandish claims, even for Sony.

[Ludoc]

Also, do you think the Best buys and wal marts of the world are going to quit selling digital media in their stores?

Check the wal-mart front page. They already offer digital content.

Music Downloads Just 88¢ each.

Large brick and mortar stores are smart enough to see this change coming. The are already starting to adjust.

[Last of the Red Hot Mamas]

It wasn't necessarily movies from them. It was that you could rip your movies to the PS3 upload them and have them "aged" into HD quality to watch them later.

Yes, that's what I was referring to with the stuff about upconverting and "online Cell storage," which was discussed pretty extensively (http://www.evilavatar.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2397&page=1&pp=10) the first time it came up and a) doesn't really make sense (unless it's a horrible mistranslation as Mason suggests) and b) is hardly a replacement for an actual honest-to-god HD movie format.

[Last of the Red Hot Mamas]

And speaking of formats, what's so great about VC-1

Better quality at lower bitrates than either MPEG2 or H.264.

and how did Microsoft get it included in the standard if they don't care about the medium?

It's not as if MS is actually going to lose money on this deal -- most of the hard work was done by other companies (Toshiba, Sony, Philips) so there's no reason for them not to get involved. And there's nothing that really indicates MS doesn't care about the medium -- simply saying "HD DVD and Blu-ray are the last physical formats we will ever need and on-demand video streaming will replace them" doesn't prove MS is totally uninterested in HD DVD and Blu-ray, because he gives no timeframe for this switch and for all we know Gates is projecting ten years into the future.

[Stormwatcher]

You people argue as if the full digital world is just a matter of technology...

Don't be silly, there will always be a need for transportable physical storage, be it DVD-ROMs, BD-ROMs or Holocubes.

Even more if you factor in the effects of piracy: downloading hundreds of GBs is not possible without DVD-R discs... And the size of pirated downloads only tends to grow.

I really like digital distribution of content (considering that I do not live in the US or Europe, and so some games and movies are too expensive to import physicaly), I believe it has a shiny future ahead of it.

But to say that physical media will disapear from the shelves... Not very likely. Just like supermarkets and blockbusters and the New York Times still exist in a brick-and-mortar incarnation.

Humans like buying stuff that they can touch. And even if I buy some legit online content which is meaningful to me in the medium-long run (music, movies, games), I'd probably like to burn a security copy on a disc. HD's crash, and even if some e-tailers let me download it again, I'd rather save the effort.

My point is: no matter how great full digital stuff is, the physical stuff is going nowhere.

[mister_slim]

Has Sony has ever talked about downloading feature-length HD movies to the PS3? I can't find that in any of the E3 coverage I've looked at. They mentioned some goofy shit about allowing users to upload their movies to "online Cell storage" (whatever that means) and upconverting them to HD, but nothing as ambitious as what Gates is referring to. That would be kind of a stupid move on Sony's part since it would just cannibalize Blu-ray movie sales (unless the HD movies look like crap, which is really the only viable way they could be made available for download over today's Internet connections, and even then you'd be talking about multi-gigabyte downloads).
No. They've talked about how any hard drive they put in the box would be too small, which implies some plan for that space. I expect downloadable games and music, and eventually some sort of office suite. Kutaragi's obviously got long-term plans, which probably involve lessening Sony's dependence on Windows.

[*Legion*]

Humans like buying stuff that they can touch.

Because human behavior never changes.