Analyst Predicts Nintendo Shooting First in Next Next-Gen War [Archive]

Purple Santa

08-25-2008, 03:46 PM

Early predictions about the next generation of consoles have begun...

Although barely considered part of this "Next Gen" console race, analyst Colin Sebastian on Edge (edge-online.com) states:

"At this point, we believe the consensus opinion among industry professionals is that the next significant hardware refresh is unlikely to occur before 2011, and more likely in 2012."

But he said Nintendo's next home console could arrive before then. "One possible exception to console timing may be Nintendo, which could opt to upgrade the Wii with faster processing power, DVD capability and/or greater storage."

The full story here (edge-online.com)

Is it possible Nintendo will shoot first? Insert your own joke about duct tape and two Wii systems.

Trickyicky

08-25-2008, 04:06 PM

It will probably just be 2 Wii's duct taped together. lololol

walkstheplanes

08-25-2008, 04:06 PM

If the Wii made a viable DVD player, I'd be happy...

I doubt any solid announcements will be made any time soon, though. As to Nintendo shooting first, I feel like the Wii is still a growing and developing system and will do so for a couple more years. Definitely by 2011, though, we're gonna start seeing some solid stuff about new consoles (announcements by 2010?).

ResistanceAddict

08-25-2008, 04:14 PM

In all honesty, from a technical standpoint, the Wii does not stand up to the PS3 or 360 by a longshot, so I'd expect whatever "next-gen" system Nintendo comes out that early will only be on even ground at best.

Purple Santa

08-25-2008, 04:16 PM

I doubt any solid announcements will be made any time soon, though. As to Nintendo shooting first, I feel like the Wii is still a growing and developing system and will do so for a couple more years. Definitely by 2011, though, we're gonna start seeing some solid stuff about new consoles (announcements by 2010?).

I think we might hear some rumblings late 2009 actually. Nothing official, but very close "official" rumbling never the less...

If Nintendo does indeed "shoot first" then how does MS and Sony respond? Does MS rush out their console since they did well being first this generation. Will Sony stick with their plan? Just fun speculating...which really all an analyst is doing anyway. At this point in time it makes nice grabbing headlines...

Variable Gear

08-25-2008, 04:17 PM

Just as planned. Honestly, who didn't think this was likely? Raise your hands.

jeffbax

08-25-2008, 04:17 PM

Wii won't be getting any prettier by 2011... or 2009 for that matter :eek:

mkelehan

08-25-2008, 04:21 PM

Adding DVD capability and more storage wouldn't be the start of the next generation any more than the GBA SP or the DS Lite were. A redesign on the Wii could happen, but I highly doubt it'll have a faster processor or even run a single game your current Wii can't.

archon

08-25-2008, 04:31 PM

It's interesting thinking where Nintendo will go next post-Wii/DS. Will they continue to try to innovate with how people control games, or will they just enhance the capabilities of the current Wii/DS? Will they get more into the online scene? Interesting times at Nintendo's camp.

Xerxes

08-25-2008, 04:45 PM

Bullshit. Analyst Colin Sebastian? Analyst still get news threads. :rolleyes:

Chris_D

08-25-2008, 04:46 PM

There will be a HD Wii probably within 2 years, but apart from looking nice on HD TVs, it won't be a huge step up from the existing Wii. Naturally, it will be 100% backwards compatible with all Wii software and will be based around the same hardware with minor improvements. Think of the upgrade from GC->Wii as the kind of improvement you will see from the next Wii.

oldjadedgamer

08-25-2008, 04:48 PM

When hasn't some random analyst predicted that the winner of the current generation will be the winner of the next generation? They said the same about SNES, N64, and PS3.

AversionFX

08-25-2008, 04:55 PM

I care less about the dick measurement contest, and more about what Nintendo will do to draw more people into video games; as well as how they will further enhance how we interact with the games.

Lutheran

08-25-2008, 05:05 PM

karak

08-25-2008, 05:07 PM

I care less about the dick measurement contest, and more about what Nintendo will do to draw more people into video games; as well as how they will further enhance how we interact with the games.

Yep, with every additional person getting into it there is a chance they may get into a more hardcore system as they begin to understand video games and learn more.

Rafer

08-25-2008, 05:21 PM

Is it possible Nintendo will shoot first? Insert your own joke about duct tape and two Wii systems.

I'd of figured they'd go for $199 and make it as powerful as two 360s duct taped together.

Froggy

08-25-2008, 05:27 PM

Xbox and PS3 still look a bit clunky to me. Wii is a little behind, but as long as nothing is mind-blowing yet, it doesn't matter to me. I think all of these systems came too soon. I think last gen had enough power for me; developers should focus on gameplay. I say wait until it's a noticeable jump, then do the power thing.

bean19

08-25-2008, 05:36 PM

We don't need 3 different versions of the same console. I am ok with Nintendo going a different route , its a GREAT 2nd console and a great 1st console for casual and new gamers. Why some of you ninnys want them to do exactly what the 360 and PS3 already do is beyond me.
If Nintendo decides to make a Wii Advance, be sure that it WON'T be about trying to appeal to hardcore gamers, but will instead be about trying to make money.

They have the lead in consoles sold individually but the Xbox 360 and PS3 have more total consumers between them that buy more games than the Wii audience (especially if you adjust attach rate to not include the millions of duplicate copies of Wii Sports people have thrown away as pack-ins with the 3 extra controllers most Wii owners buy), and that means if they come out with a "Wii Advance" then developers who are making multiplatform games can choose to port it to the "Wii Advance" instead of ignoring the console. This will keep the Wii from falling out of hoola-hoop fad state and becoming the closet "Trivial Pursuit" console that people drag out for parties (my Mom is already at this state, but she bought it at this state so that isn't saying much). This is how my Gamecube is too. . . I have Donky Konga and four bongos that all sit in my closet until I have friends over for a bongo-fest.

In addition to allowing multi-platform games come to their system (and make them money on their system), downloadable distribution of tiny ancient games is still possible on the Wii, but they could be reselling their entire Gamecube library on a Wii Advance (with a proper HD) and people might spend $20 or more for a great Zelda game or Mario Sunshine, and they could charge $30 for old original Wii titles.

Finally, there is the issue of corporate image. Nintendo is making a ton of money by focusing on accessibility to the casual gamer and the family market. However, if they do this to the detriment of their product long enough, they'll begin to be seen not as the low-cost, high-return company that is the general perception they appreciate now, but will start to be seen as a McDonald's. . . low cost, but you get what you've paid for.

bean19

08-25-2008, 05:39 PM

I say wait until it's a noticeable jump, then do the power thing.
Have you not seen an Xbox 360 or PS3 at a friend's house or a store with an HD monitor? Your message there says you live in Arizona, so it's hard for me to imagine that you haven't seen the difference between them. Is your PC powerful enough to view high definition trailers at gametrailers?

Ugh. . . I think he might have been trolling and I bit like an idiot.

Lutheran

08-25-2008, 05:43 PM

bean19

08-25-2008, 06:01 PM

The Wii's attach rate even without Wii play is not as bad as is normally foretold here at XBOX 360 central. But whatever , like I said its a great 2nd console. I don't much care that they try to make money. If you think Microsoft is appealing to hardcore gamers because they care then well your pretty dense.
Oh, I absolutely think Microsoft is trying to make money. They are spending a fortune to try to get a piece of the casual and family-friendly pie too. I just thought it would be interesting discussion to talk about this subject. . . why Nintendo might do this, and you seemed to imply that they might do this because core gamers want features that the Wii cannot provide with the current technology (and that gamers who want tech-related features should be satisfied. . . but I wasn't interested in that bit and was only replaying to the first bit which is Nintendo's intentions), but ultimately I'm about the games. . . not the consoles. Talking about the consoles is interesting to me because they effect the industry so much and thus the games so much.

As for Evil Avatar being "Xbox 360 Central". . . that's a bit out of character for you, isn't it? I thought you tried to be console war agnostic, or maybe that's someone else and I'm getting you mixed up. Anyway, I think you'll find that I'm a gamer that is very happy with his Xbox 360, but if you look at the history of my posts you'll see that I absolutely have no problem pointing out the faults of the system (reliability, Xbox Live Gold costs money) and the company (Vista is hit-and-miss, DX10 is a mess, failure to back MMOs to completion). I am a gamer and I have a console preference because of game preference (and I do every generation - I bought the Xbox LAST in the last-gen because Halo parties got me more than enough Halo and it didn't have a kiler-app for me until KOTOR whereas Eternal Darkness and the promise of FF X got me to buy the other two at launch).

I think there are a lot of gamers like that here, but there is, in my opinion, a lot more advocacy of the other consoles. . . . Interestingly, the game I'm salivating over most is not on any of the consoles this Fall. I'm absolutely in love with Warhammer Online.

Evil Avnovice

08-25-2008, 06:31 PM

I'm very interested in what the next method of control will be. After the wii-mote, it's kind of hard to go back to a normal controller now that I'm used to relaxing and point 'n' clicking my way through games.

At this point, I'm very open as to what may be in store for the Wii successor's controls.

Phanto

08-25-2008, 06:45 PM

I have always thought that Nintendo on purpose release their consoles behind current tech that other consoles are using like 360 or PS3, meaning that maybe we could see the successor of the Wii with storage like the Xbox 360 or even the PS3's Bluray ( I doubt that last option I mentioned).

Anyway why I mention this?

Because by that time this "current tech" for the PS3 & 360 consoles will be much cheaper, and we all know that Nintendo use the cheaper options, they progress and adopt new techs but at a lower rate than the other competition.

Wraith

08-25-2008, 07:17 PM

But he said Nintendo's next home console could arrive before then. "One possible exception to console timing may be Nintendo, which could opt to upgrade the Wii with faster processing power, DVD capability and/or greater storage."I've been thinking that Nintendo could very well launch first for a while now. Unless they release a "Wii Lite"-like new hardware revision next year, it kinda makes sense for Nintendo to have a slightly shorter console lifecycle. They've certainly made enough money on the Wii and DS. As long as the next one's 100% Wii compatible, and there's not a major transition for developers.

The only thing that could hurt is if the public thinks it's too soon - that they just got a Wii and aren't ready to shell out another $250 for a new console. But then look at the iPod product cycle, and how many people re-buy DSes/PSPs for the latest & greatest.

Me personally, I've more or less decided to just not get a Wii, and if there are a few Wii games I want to play, I can play them on Nintendo's next system if I really want to.

bean19

08-25-2008, 08:18 PM

Because by that time this "current tech" for the PS3 & 360 consoles will be much cheaper, and we all know that Nintendo use the cheaper options, they progress and adopt new techs but at a lower rate than the other competition.

That time is already here. Tech prices fall quickly, and they could actually make a machine that is better than both of them for the $250 they charge for the Wii (if they don't add a Blu-Ray player as that is still an expensive component).

Plus, you have to consider if they had a plan for it today, they'd still need a lot of time to set up manufacturing and to actually get a lot of units ready for launch.

Froggy

08-25-2008, 08:24 PM

Have you not seen an Xbox 360 or PS3 at a friend's house or a store with an HD monitor? Your message there says you live in Arizona, so it's hard for me to imagine that you haven't seen the difference between them. Is your PC powerful enough to view high definition trailers at gametrailers?

Ugh. . . I think he might have been trolling and I bit like an idiot.

They look good. But I just think art direction makes the look. Psychonauts, Ico, Shadow, Okami. All last gen. I'll admit, AC and Lostplanet rocked my socks, but I believe it was the art direction. They're on par with No More Heroes as far as I'm concerned, even though technically; there's a clear dichotomy.

boratika

08-25-2008, 08:24 PM

*puts on on armchair analyst hat*

Seems to me, looking at current data, that Nintendo has the least to gain from a new system. The main advantage of new hardware would be increased power; the Wii has potential for increased functionality in other areas eg Motionplus, new chanels and god forbid some decent storage solution (USB.)

Now looking at now, the hardware deficiency doesn't seem to be a great issue. At least it may be hurting sales for all we know, but without seeing into a parallel universe where it's as powerful as it's competitors we'll never know what could have been in this regard. What we do know is it's selling. Selling even better than the PS2 in the same time frame. Ands there's no sign of this dying off. Sure it has to slow sometime, but it won't suddenly stop, it will tail off.

As for the software, in January it was revealed in Nintendo's report to shareholders (shouldn't there be another one by now?) that the global attach rate was 5.3 (not including WiiSports or downloadables and about 5.0 if WiiPlay is excluded.) The breakdown being this:

World: 5.3
Americas - 6.9
Europe - 5.6
Japan - 3.4

And in terms of reliative lo lifetime they are also doing quite nicely (http://kotaku.com/5010214/nintendo-wii-has-highest-software-sales-for-first-18-months).

So what's my point? Well if Nintendo is doing so well with such inferior (power) hardware, what's their motivation for putting out new hardware and foregoing their current install base's software buying capability?

Who do I think will shoot first? Probably MS.

Why? I've explained why I don't think it will be Nintendo. Sony on the other hand will be making up for R+D cost on the PS3 for a long time (at least in terms of making a decent profit,) so I suspect they will want a long life cycle. The PSP-3000 also suggests they see better potential from prolonging life cycles (as long as the other guy doesn't move to the next generation.) And lastly, the 360's headstart seems to have been its biggest strength and it has done nearly as well with competitors on the market.

What do I hope? This generation goes on for a long time. Each system has it's place. It's going to take longer to get the noticeable graphical graphical leap we are used to (diminishing returns and all that.) Money spent on hardware is money I'm not spending on games (and maybe causing a loss for the manufacturer.) And Last but so incredibly far from least, developers working in a familiar mature environment is beneficial to everyone.

Additional point: I suspect the big three will have all rethought what a new hardware generation means. The Wii destroyed the notion that it's all about graphics. I suspect SONY learnt being late to market is a massive liability. Hopefully MS learnt dodgy hardware is a massive liability. I'm sure they are all already working on their next hardware (from the day they first shipped the current one.)

Schnoogs

08-25-2008, 08:25 PM

And like every other Nintendo console it will have 3 good games...all of which made by Nintendo and geared towards pre-schoolers.

Oh and it will be able to render 5 polygons instead of 4 this time.

boratika

08-25-2008, 08:26 PM

And did someone say "analysts lol (http://www.evilavatar.com/forums/showthread.php?p=1384374)"?

If the Wii made a viable DVD player, I'd be happy...

There's a proof of concept homebrew DVD player for the Wii (no hard modification required.) You may wish to keep an eye on that if such a feature interests you.

They have the lead in consoles sold individually but the Xbox 360 and PS3 have more total consumers between them that buy more games than the Wii audience (especially if you adjust attach rate to not include the millions of duplicate copies of Wii Sports people have thrown away as pack-ins with the 3 extra controllers most Wii owners buy)

This may have been a valid point if it was completely wrong. (http://kotaku.com/5010214/nintendo-wii-has-highest-software-sales-for-first-18-months)

Schnoogs

08-25-2008, 08:28 PM

This may have been a valid point if it was completely wrong. (http://kotaku.com/5010214/nintendo-wii-has-highest-software-sales-for-first-18-months)

Actually he's dead right and the issue has been beaten to death here :rolleyes:

boratika

08-25-2008, 08:31 PM

Actually he's dead right and the issue has been beaten to death here :rolleyes:

How so?

Use published figure to show your argument.

firecut

08-25-2008, 08:31 PM

Upgraded Wii with more storage and DVD playback is not Next-next gen by any means. It would be Wii 1.5 IMO. Hopefully they release said device within the 2009 calendar year.

Gott

08-25-2008, 08:51 PM

Microsoft's console is slated for late 2010 or 2011...I just wonder how late Sony will be to the party...

i love predictions 3 years in the future...analysts have to say anything to prove they are still relevant. If an analyst brought this info to a portfolio manager they would be laughed out of the room.

**It feels really strange writing 2010...**

TrackZero

08-25-2008, 09:27 PM

"One possible exception to console timing may be Nintendo, which could opt to upgrade the Wii with faster processing power, DVD capability and/or greater storage."

Well, that wouldn't be a new console then. Though it may finally make the Wii a Gamecube 2.0. ;)

TrackZero

08-25-2008, 09:33 PM

How so?

Use published figure to show your argument.

Well, using your own article.

50 million - Wii
-
27.66 m - Wii Sports pack-in
http://www.vgchartz.com/games/game.php?id=2667
=
22.34 million Wii games actually sold

30 million - 360
+
20 million - PS3
=

50 million of the other two put together (which is what you were replying to)

And yes, this has been beaten to death. Get over it.

boratika

08-25-2008, 09:47 PM

Well, using your own article.

50 million - Wii
-
27.66 m - Wii Sports pack-in
http://www.vgchartz.com/games/game.php?id=2667
=
22.34 million Wii games actually sold

30 million - 360
+
20 million - PS3
=

50 million of the other two put together (which is what you were replying to)

And yes, this has been beaten to death. Get over it.
If you read the article you may have found this in it:
Update: I just clarified with Nintendo: Those software sales numbers only include boxed games sold at retail and not virtual console or Wii Sports.

Xerxes

08-25-2008, 09:54 PM

If you read the article you may have found this in it:

What about the forced bundles? :D

jeffbax

08-25-2008, 09:55 PM

H.Bogard

08-25-2008, 11:48 PM

They have the lead in consoles sold individually but the Xbox 360 and PS3 have more total consumers between them that buy more games than the Wii audience (especially if you adjust attach rate to not include the millions of duplicate copies of Wii Sports people have thrown away as pack-ins with the 3 extra controllers most Wii owners buy), and that means if they come out with a "Wii Advance" then developers who are making multiplatform games can choose to port it to the "Wii Advance" instead of ignoring the console. This will keep the Wii from falling out of hoola-hoop fad state and becoming the closet "Trivial Pursuit" console that people drag out for parties (my Mom is already at this state, but she bought it at this state so that isn't saying much). This is how my Gamecube is too. . . I have Donky Konga and four bongos that all sit in my closet until I have friends over for a bongo-fest.

Problem is, the games sold on the Xbox 360 and PS3 cost nearly dozens of times more than a typical Wii game in development and the consoles themselves had been sold at a loss until recently (360, the PS3 is still sold at a loss).

Xerxes

08-26-2008, 12:20 AM

Problem is, the games sold on the Xbox 360 and PS3 cost nearly dozens of times more than a typical Wii game in development and the consoles themselves had been sold at a loss until recently (360, the PS3 is still sold at a loss).

Not fair. While the 360/PS3 games cost more to make, they are more inclined to sell better. The big sellers are still mostly Nintendo made games. Also, doesn't the Wii still have the worst attach rate?

menage

08-26-2008, 12:42 AM

I don't see many consumers adapting to a Wii 2. Why buy anything you already own. Most Wii owners don't give a crap about graphics and the "new" element of wiggle isn't new anymore in 2 years. The only place it will probably sell is in Japan. But they buy a different color 2nd or 3rd DS just to look cool, so that's not saying very much.

If they added telepathy control. then they would be on to something:P

boratika

08-26-2008, 01:38 AM

Not fair. While the 360/PS3 games cost more to make, they are more inclined to sell better. The big sellers are still mostly Nintendo made games. Also, doesn't the Wii still have the worst attach rate?

Nintendo's annual financial report (http://www.nintendo.com/corp/annual_report.jsp) (ending June 30) puts the attach rate at 6.38 (excluding WiiPlay it's around 6.13)

SONY and MS's statement's don't have this information, just $ amounts. But it seems the 360's still hovers around 8 and the PS3 is between 4.5 and 5.5.

Chris_D

08-26-2008, 01:48 AM

I don't see many consumers adapting to a Wii 2. Why buy anything you already own. Most Wii owners don't give a crap about graphics ...

What you say is mostly true, but the key here is HD. Most people still have SD TVs, but another 2 years and HD will likely have taken the lead. More importantly, more and more devices are going to HD, so once your set top boxes, your broadcast TV are all in HD, the Wii is going to really stand out.

So it's definitely not a case of needing a ton more graphical processing power, just being able to display a HD image (like PCs have been doing for over a decade).

menage

08-26-2008, 02:01 AM

What you say is mostly true, but the key here is HD. Most people still have SD TVs, but another 2 years and HD will likely have taken the lead. More importantly, more and more devices are going to HD, so once your set top boxes, your broadcast TV are all in HD, the Wii is going to really stand out.

So it's definitely not a case of needing a ton more graphical processing power, just being able to display a HD image (like PCs have been doing for over a decade).

I understand the whole HD thing coming from a gamers perspective. But I don't see people adapting to a new Wii just because it's HD. Most people don't even care about how crap something looks, even on their new 1000 buck Bravia. Hell most people don't even know how to set something up properly, using standard RGB instead of component swearing that it looks so much better in HD.

blackzc

08-26-2008, 03:23 AM

Because by that time this "current tech" for the PS3 & 360 consoles will be much cheaper, and we all know that Nintendo use the cheaper options, they progress and adopt new techs but at a lower rate than the other competition.

This is first time they have built a console on the cheap. All other nintendo consoles have been equal to or more powerful than the competition.

Chris_D

08-26-2008, 03:28 AM

I understand the whole HD thing coming from a gamers perspective. But I don't see people adapting to a new Wii just because it's HD. Most people don't even care about how crap something looks, ....

I mostly agree, it's just a matter of when everything but Wii is HD (assuming people are hopefully learning how to plug in their cables correctly) then the Wii will stand out even more than it already does.

I mean, the "new" or "casual" gamers who are adopting Wii are not necessarily people who don't or can't understand this kind of stuff. Just because you're not a hardcore gamer doesn't mean that you can't use a HD set properly. For example, my Dad has no idea about HD and doesn't even own a HD set yet, but he'll spend an hour trying to adjust the aerial to get the perfect broadcast signal. So I imagine, at some point in the future he'll also become picky about HD quality.

Yellowman

08-26-2008, 05:05 AM

And like every other Nintendo console it will have 3 good games...all of which made by Nintendo and geared towards pre-schoolers.

Oh and it will be able to render 5 polygons instead of 4 this time.

Why the fuck did someone unban this douche?

Heretic Machine

08-26-2008, 05:43 AM

But he said Nintendo's next home console could arrive before then. "One possible exception to console timing may be Nintendo, which could opt to upgrade the Wii with faster processing power, DVD capability and/or greater storage."

That makes sense, make a new console, this time with a DVD drive... oh wait, they have a DVD drive in the Wii, and could enable movie playback with a software update. But there is the storage thing, right? I mean, I'm sure they would rather sell new Wiis, which are much more likely to sell than $80 USB hard-drive add-ons... oh wait, they wouldn't sell better than $80 USB hard-drive add-ons, and wouldn't bring in as much money for the big N. But there is the new "faster processing" power, which would require developers to make games taking advantage of it, splitting the customer base and thus the incentive to make games for the Wii (because that's not a problem, right?)

Analysts are a fucking joke. Hell, what does he think Nintendo's motivation would be for this upgrade; to jumpstart the lax sales of the Wii? Because the Wii isn't selling, right?

bean19

08-26-2008, 06:20 AM

This may have been a valid point if it was completely wrong. (http://kotaku.com/5010214/nintendo-wii-has-highest-software-sales-for-first-18-months)

boratika - You have an important "not" missing.

However, that link also doesn't prove your point. It doesn't adjust for the fact that it counts all the thrown away Wii Play games that people had to buy for their controllers, it is only about the first 18 months, and it isn't more than the other two combined, but just more than the Xbox 360 in comparison to the Xbox 360's first 18 months (again, with them including Wii Play sales).

If I'm working from bad data, I'll be the first one to eat crow when someone points it out, but you just pointed to a story that proves that the Nintendo Wii had a great launch. The Xbox 360 was only good in software sales before Fall 2007. Before then only Gears of War and Oblivion were really huge mega-hits (though there are numerous million sellers too), but last Fall had Halo 3, Mass Effect, Bioshock, Assassin's Creed, etc. If I pointed to a story that showed how the Xbox 360 cleaned up in sales in the last year over the competition, it would also be highly selective and not helpful to this discussion

However, you are getting all console war on me. The point here isn't which console is doing better, but why Nintendo might consider making a Wii Advance. Why would this hurt you? Wouldn't you Nintendo fans love to have a Wii that has HD graphics and enough hard-drive space that you can download old Gamecube and original titles?

bean19

08-26-2008, 06:32 AM

Problem is, the games sold on the Xbox 360 and PS3 cost nearly dozens of times more than a typical Wii game in development and the consoles themselves had been sold at a loss until recently (360, the PS3 is still sold at a loss).

Game development costs more on HD consoles but it is more like twice to three times as much rather than "dozens". I started a paragraph that went into the numbers I've read, but I got bored explaining it. . . though I've done so before. Here's the point I was going to make without the numbers to illustrate it. While development costs are increased for HD games, all games share a promotional cost to get their game on shelves and to show their game to the public. That cost can often be more than the entire cost of development, and this brings them closer together in terms of risk, though there is a difference. However, with games there doesn't tend to be much middle ground. A small flop is less painful than a large flop, but both cost you millions of dollars and for most development companies that can spell their end.

This is why developers must preserve their IPs and it is a large reason why they need to have them on the systems with the best available graphics. If you are someone who is known for selling the best steaks in the world, then you aren't going to ask McDonald's to become a vendor. You might be able to make them a really good hamburger that is nice and cheap, but if you screw up you could lose everything. . . wouldn't it be safer to not try to be fast food and continue just selling steaks?

Also, as you said, the Xbox 360 has been making a profit for over a year on consoles sold and continues to do so. A "Wii Advance" sold at $250, without taking any loss, could be more advanced than both the Xbox 360 and the PS3 (as long as they didn't include an HD movie player).

Chris_D

08-26-2008, 08:06 AM

A "Wii Advance" sold at $250, without taking any loss, could be more advanced than both the Xbox 360 and the PS3 (as long as they didn't include an HD movie player).

Without taking any loss would assume that they've already done the research to develop the chips to make this fabled super console you mention. With the success of the relatively low spec Wii and DS there is no sign that they're doing anything of the sort.

Sandman

08-26-2008, 08:08 AM

When Nintendo fires a warning shot across the bow in the next gen war I know I can start saving for the other two systems.

Whimbrel

08-26-2008, 08:14 AM

A lot of people are forgetting the possibility of a THREE Gamecube system and just automatically skip a whole generation to speculate on a two Wii system. That type of performance is decades away!

Chris_D

08-26-2008, 08:22 AM

A lot of people are forgetting the possibility of a THREE Gamecube system and just automatically skip a whole generation to speculate on a two Wii system. That type of performance is decades away!

I'm sorry, but your 3 GC or 2 Wii system would be p0000wned by this beast.
http://www.bgfax.com/xbox/home.html

I guess you won't be taking it to your friends house anytime soon though.

Of course Sony would win this war of power with this beast, not for the budget minded though:

32 Node PS3 Cluster
A light weight but powerful cluster, ideal for the development of parallel, Cell optimized code. Seamless code migration to IBM Cell blades enables a smart, powerful upgrade path. This cluster offers a theoretical performance of greater than 5TF!

# Power Mac G5 Dual Processor 2.5GHz, 2GB RAM, 160GB HD, SuperDrive.
# 32 40GB PLAYSTATION®3s.
# 33 Cat6 ethernet cables.
# 48 port Net Gear 10/100/1000 Switch (1U)
# Yellow Dog Linux pre-installed.
# Y-HPC Cluster Construction suite pre-installed.
# Cluster Resources' Moab cluster management suite, pre-installed.
# Mouse, Keyboard, Benq 19" Display.
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bjornbarspingvinen

08-26-2008, 08:34 AM

People who get paid to guess. THese analyst people are always full of BS....

bean19

08-26-2008, 08:56 AM

People who get paid to guess. THese analyst people are always full of BS....

Except when they aren't.

We already have a precedent with the Gameboy Advance. A "Wii Advance" that lets Nintendo open the door to online distribution dollars and multi-platform AAA games is not that hard to imagine. Unless Nintendo started hating money at some point, I can't think of a compelling reason to NOT do this. They are making a killing on Wii titles, but there history has shown that even when they introduce superior hardware, the older versions continue to sell.

Now, I don't think it will happen while the Wii continues to be sold out everywhere, but there will come a point when it has such great market saturation that they will have units in stores and will then have to lower the price. That will definitely take a year at the least and could take two or more, but it will eventually happen.

Talon-

08-26-2008, 09:34 AM

DaXIthR

08-26-2008, 10:08 AM

DaXIthR

08-26-2008, 10:15 AM

Except when they aren't.

We already have a precedent with the Gameboy Advance. A "Wii Advance" that lets Nintendo open the door to online distribution dollars and multi-platform AAA games is not that hard to imagine. Unless Nintendo started hating money at some point, I can't think of a compelling reason to NOT do this. They are making a killing on Wii titles, but there history has shown that even when they introduce superior hardware, the older versions continue to sell.

Dude, I don't know why you're hung up on the 'Advance' in the GBA. Would you feel better if it was called GBA 2, because that's exactly what it is. Just like they added a 'Super' to the front of the NES name. They could have called is NES 2. They could have called it the NES 360. Maybe you would have found that more compelling.

The GBA set no precedent except to say that Nintendo considers the portable gaming market viable would release successors to successful machines.

bean19

08-26-2008, 10:16 AM

It would have been absurd for Sony to upgrade first, but it wouldn't be for Nintendo. Despite their success in selling the most consoles (by a huge margin), they are missing out on a lot of the profitability of downloadable content and huge sales from multi-platforming games.

They don't have to abandon the Wii either. I don't think they'll come out with a completely new console, but a Wii that has competitive technology that allows for multiplatform AAA game releases and has enough storage space that they can begin selling Gamecube and original Wii titles as downloadable content.

Also, I don't expect this to even be announced for at least a year (if they are planning it), and it wouldn't be out for another year after that.

bean19

08-26-2008, 10:20 AM

The GBA set no precedent. . .
I disagree. They could absolutely market a new system that plays old Wii games and new Wii Advance games the same. They'd probably call it the Wii HD though. What you've said is that the "Advance" was simply a marketing ploy, and I agree. . . it is just a way to emphasize that the system is backwards compatible with old games while offering new features.

Why do you think they wouldn't want to make money from selling downloadable games and cross-platform AAA titles? Also, wouldn't you Nintendo fans like an advanced Wii that has the Wii controls but offers HD graphics? How would that hurt you or the company you like?

Highlar

08-26-2008, 11:29 AM

Honestly, there's no need for them to stop producing the Wii once they make their next jump. The people that bought the Wii aren't exactly going to be clawing for a Wii 2 as it stands right now, so Nintendo could support the Wii a la Sony supporting the PS2 while launching their next system (with full backwards compatibility).

Iwata has already stated how hard it is to catch lightning in a bottle with consoles, especially after the roaring success that was the Wii, so it sounds like Nintendo will be realistic with its expectations for the next console.

I don't do a lot of posting on here, just every now and again. But this, Talon, is something that I think might hold some merit. With how popular the Wii is now, with gamers and non-gamers, they COULD possibly put out a second system, that is fully backwards compatible with the first. And with the obscene amounts of money they have, they probably could support both consoles: market the Wii as more towards the casual, and the Wii 2 as more towards the core group. I think they might actually be able to clean up shop if they tried something like that in a couple of years. :-)

Xerxes

08-26-2008, 12:04 PM

Nintendo's annual financial report (http://www.nintendo.com/corp/annual_report.jsp) (ending June 30) puts the attach rate at 6.38 (excluding WiiPlay it's around 6.13)

SONY and MS's statement's don't have this information, just $ amounts. But it seems the 360's still hovers around 8 and the PS3 is between 4.5 and 5.5.

Now I went through Nintendo's annual financial report and I must of missed the attach rate. What page is that on again?

bean19

08-26-2008, 12:38 PM

Now I went through Nintendo's annual financial report and I must of missed the attach rate. What page is that on again?
Ugh. boratika's stock just went down. . . that's two bad links in the same thread.

DaXIthR

08-26-2008, 12:44 PM

Why do you think they wouldn't want to make money from selling downloadable games and cross-platform AAA titles? Also, wouldn't you Nintendo fans like an advanced Wii that has the Wii controls but offers HD graphics? How would that hurt you or the company you like?

Now you're just being trollish. I don't appreciate how you phrase your questions. You want to get pissy, pick on someone else here.

It's not about what I want, it's about what makes sense and what's practical. What do I want? I want RE5 to feel more like Dead Space and for it have RE4: Wii Edition controls but look like it's playing on the PS3. Now that we've got what I want out of the way, why don't you answer your own question? What do you want? What are you getting at with your posts?

You're making the GBA sound like the SP. It's not like that; it's a totally new system that has full backwards compatibility. Will there be an upgrade of sorts that turns the current Wii into something similar to the SP (and its jump from the GBA)? Will there be new Wii in the vein of the DS Lite (and its jump from the DS)? Maybe.

Will there be an upgrade that does for the Wii what the PSP Slim did for the PSP? More likely. See the difference?

Could Nintendo give me my RE5/Dead Space hybrid on a PS3 with MotionPlus-enhanced controls? Sure. But in the process they are going lost Wii sales and spend a billion dollars. It's not worth it.

vherub

08-26-2008, 01:30 PM

dvd capability will never again be a major selling point for any videogame system

bean19

08-26-2008, 02:11 PM

You're making the GBA sound like the SP. It's not like that; it's a totally new system that has full backwards compatibility.
This is what I'm talking about. Why is that impossible? Also, you didn't answer my questions. . . why wouldn't Nintendo want to make money by having a new system completely backwards compatible with the Wii that is capable of playing HD games so it can get multiplatform AAA titles on it and can sell downloadable content which could include Gamecube and Wii titles as both take too much space for the current Wii, but would require only 1-2 GB of space on a proper hard-drive.

Will there be an upgrade that does for the Wii what the PSP Slim did for the PSP? More likely. See the difference?
What features would it provide to improve the Wii experience? It's already tiny and sleak, so why bother with a new one other than to further cut down on manufacturing costs? And it's so cheap to make already that they'd only make a minor amount of increased revenue for each console sold.

Also, I'm not picking on you here. I really wanted to know the answer to those questions and I think they are important to the discussion. I would like a Wii with HD graphics and a hard-drive capable of downloading old Gamecube and Wii titles because those are features I would enjoy. It would also provide a higher value for the system, but I won't go extensively into that as I want to talk about this and not my dissatisfaction with the Wii. A "Wii Advance" that improved the features of the console to bring it's technology up-to-date with it's industry competitors would sell very well in my opinion and would answer many of the complaints gamers have with the system.

Disney and Pixar may be aimed at casual family entertainment, but they try to fire buckshot and get EVERYONE on board. While I will always prefer watching the latest Tarantino film more than Finding Nemo, I do enjoy those movies (Kung Fu Panda was really amusing). Mario Galaxy and Zelda are also still great despite the weak hardware. . . I'm not saying the current Wii is complete shit. I'm saying an HD Wii would be far more interesting to me.

What that was, the graph you quoted before getting offended was an olive branch. I know you love the Wii and I don't like it right now because I can play the few games I find compelling on it at a friend's house, but this isn't about that. I'm not sure why you have such passionate opposition to the idea of Nintendo coming out with a Wii capable of HD games and selling medium-sized downloadable content.

RMan

08-26-2008, 03:42 PM

I don't see many consumers adapting to a Wii 2. Why buy anything you already own.
All of these arguments could be made about the GBA-SP and DS Lite. These cosmetic improvements do sell, although the Wii could continue to sell perfectly well, releasing an updated platform could be a big plus and won't cost too much like the 360/PS3 did. It's in line with Nintendo's recent strategies, and most certainly the consumers are used to it.

Xerxes

08-26-2008, 04:15 PM

Ugh. boratika's stock just went down. . . that's two bad links in the same thread.

Dude, I might have just missed it.

DaXIthR

08-26-2008, 04:17 PM

What that was, the graph you quoted before getting offended was an olive branch. I know you love the Wii and I don't like it right now because I can play the few games I find compelling on it at a friend's house, but this isn't about that. I'm not sure why you have such passionate opposition to the idea of Nintendo coming out with a Wii capable of HD games and selling medium-sized downloadable content.

I'm not opposed to it. You obviously missed my point about MotionPlus enabled RE5/Dead Space title. It would be better than sex - with a girl. But it's not going to happen because it's impractical against the model Nintendo constructing.

I don't know if you were gaming back then, but the SNES didn't have many SKUs and the various SKUs only had a different pack-in game and were otherwise identical. That's what the market was like back then.

The Wii market is like that. The people are able to identify software by the name of the console. For the casual gamer, I can't begin to tell you how much easier it makes life. It's not just about being easy and simple for Nintendo, it's about being accessible. There's a game with the mascot in blue overalls...it's some kind of car or kart racing..I'm pretty sure it's for the Wii. You know what the name of that game is? Mario Kart Wii. No consumer anywhere in the world can describe the game in even the vaguest of terms without every incompetent, uneducated cash register-jockey knowing exactly what's being communicated.

Putting out a Wii HD or Wii Advance in another year or two would undermine that. Nintendo's better off trying to milk the current product for 120M lifetime units. Why not? It's here and it's working.

Nintendo's just not going to release Mario Kart Wii in 2008 and Mario Kart Wii Advance in 2010 or 2011. It confuses the consumer. It would be nice to have an HD Wii, but it makes no sense. The system needs no help selling so why go out of you way to cater to a minority? Just please drop the notion that I'm personally opposed to the idea. I'm not.

Again, the GBA example is ineffective because the GameBoy's life was stretched, and stretched. The VB was announced, launched DOA and the GBA kept going strong for another year before the GBA made it to market. The GBA was not meant to supplement the GB; it only tried to leverage the massive installed base, library and titles still in production for the GB. That's what the PS2 and PS3 did. Vastly different circumstances elsewhere.

Finally, these medium-sized downloads you're talking about sound like full-sized GC and Wii titles, which can be as much as 1.8GB and 4.7GB on single-layered single discs, respectively. Medium-sized? Really? And add to that the fact that these titles retailed for $50. You think casual gamers - the ones that don't know the consoles can even go online - you think those casual gamers are going to start dropping $50 apiece for those titles over a download?

bean19

08-26-2008, 05:33 PM

For the downloads, most Wii games are 1 GB to 3 GB. . . even games with HD graphics usually clock in around 4-8 GB with modern MMOs being the largest games that can go up around 10-15 GB (with expansions), but that would work easily on a 100+ GB hard-drive, and Gamecube games would be resold for $10-20 while old Wii games could sell for $20-30. It is a way for Nintendo to get a piece of the resell market rather than a way for them to sell new titles (though they could sell those for $50 new - if they chose to do so).

Plus, they could get money from multi-platform titles. There are a lot of Wii owners that are not as casual as Mom and Dad but are somewhere in the middle who would happily spend money buying multiplatform titles like Devil May Cry, Call of Duty, and the aforementioned Dead Space.

Where I think our bone of contention lies is that you believe that it isn't necessary for Nintendo to do it, and I don't think they "have" to do it. I think if they do it, they'd make another fortune. . . and I just don't see how having customers occasionally buying games for the wrong system would sufficiently hurt their bottom line. Most consumers would consider making an uninformed purchase their fault and would simply return the game for the correct copy. Plus, there are things they can do to illustrate the differences like having all Wii Advance games having differently shaped boxes with different color schemes and making the "Advance" in big print on the box. There will be uninformed buyers who still screw up, but is that really worth not getting a piece of the downloadable content pie and the resell market?