Forbes on Next-Gen

[pirateTITAN]

Forbes has a article on the next-gen (http://www.forbes.com/2008/07/28/game-consoles-nextgen-tech-intel-cx_cm_0729consoles_print.html), not this gen, but as in PlayStation 4 and Xbox 720 gen. It's an interesting read, especially the various quotes from the big-names in the business. The article covers the possible hardware of the next-gen, the timeframe in which the new consoles might come, and the direction that the companies may be going with the successors to this gen.


Game machines typically are on the shelves for five or six years before a console manufacturer rolls out the next one. With the expense and success of this crop of systems--which have been out two to three years--it could be closer to eight years before we see the PlayStation 4, Xbox 720 and Nintendo "Us"--or whatever they end up being called.

"One of the things I like about this generation is we are still very early and there's still a lot of room for growth … as we move down those price curves," says Brian Farrell, CEO of THQ. "Those engines have a lot of steam left in them. We think it could be seven or eight years before new machines start to roll out."

Epic Games, maker of the hit "Gears of War" series, agrees. President Mike Capps recently said the company estimates new systems will not hit shelves until somewhere between 2012 and 2018.
...
And, as Jack Tretton, president and CEO of Sony Computer Entertainment of America, points out, an advanced machine doesn't necessarily rule out a run at the mass market.

"As far as next generation is concerned, I think one of the distinct advantages that we have is we don't have to go in a specific direction," he says. "I don't think the fact that we have a high-end machine keeps us from doing bite-sized casual entertainment. I don't think we're relegated to PC shooters or youth-oriented casual games. We can span the gamut."

Nintendo, as you might expect, is approaching things a bit differently. President Satoru Iwata freely admits the company is already working on the Wii's successor (something Microsoft's Shane Kim refuses to concede). However, he adds that he doesn't view the hardware as particularly interesting.

Any predictions?

[Citizen Philip]

Silver jumpsuits, flying cars and protien pills.

[The Ligand]

Whatever happens, people on EvAv will feel strongly about it.

[Ozymandias]

Anybody making predictions at this point in time is playing a fool's game... there are just so many shifting variables right now. Maybe in a couple of years, but right now? Good luck with that... ;)

[Citizen Philip]

Whatever happens, people on EvAv will feel strongly about it.

If the Blood War stops, the great gears of the gaming universe will grind to halt and we will bare grim witness to the return of the tape deck and code wheels of the Far realms.

[mightbe]

I predict a new Mario/Halo/Metal Gear title.

*yawn*

[Roc Ingersol]

Whatever happens, most people posting on gaming sites will have taken sides before a single unit is on the shelf.

[AgtFox]

Whatever happens, most people posting on gaming sites will have taken sides before a single unit is on the shelf.
Phantom! Oh wait... ;)

[TrackZero]

Xbox 720 will be out by 2011 at the latest.

[divinechaos]

I fucking HATE it when people call the next Xbox the "720". What makes you think that that'll be the name? It ain't like the original was called 180.

Anyway, yeah, I predict the next generation of systems will be more powerful and promise a lot more content. Where's my check?

[Wedge]

Oh god, I just realized I'll be in my thirties before the next generation rolls out.

[AlwaysOn222]

I think that Nintendo will be the only company focusing primary on gaming with it's console next generation. Because we can clarely see that both MS and Sony is, imo at least, focusing more on digital media hubs. Because of that I believe that next generation MS and Sony offerings will not be consoles as we know them at all, but rather some sort of htpc or tivo box where you can do everything. Music, tv, games, fotos, surfing, whatever. And instead of discs theese machines will rely on harddrives and digital distribution over the Internet. We see it already in form of XBLA and PSN Store and that is only the beginning. Next gen that digital delivery system has hopefully evolved to be faster, better and cheaper.

Well at least that is my prediction :P

[Wraith]

Any predictions?

Most of my predictions would be pretty much what we'd expect from the way things have been progressing in the current gen (MS and Sony continue to duke it out, both with significant jumps in horsepower, blu-ray and hard drives standard, Nintendo keeps on doing its own thing, moving further away from "core" gamers, new motion controls.)

But a few other guesses:[quote]
Blu-ray will be relatively cheap by then, and Sony won't be launching at a $600 price point (they won't have to hack and slash features to make a price-competitive model). We'll likely see twin high/low SKUs again from both Sony and MS.
Nintendo will launch first. Again with an affordable, profitable console on day 1.
PS3, despite doing well in the current gen, won't have quite the long tail that the PS2 did. May keep their cell architecture, if financially acceptable, to avoid delaying developer adoption of new console.
Backwards compatibility with current gen games: MS - yes, Nintendo - yes, Sony - Ask again later.
Increased digital distribution, but physical media still dominates the next gen.
Nintendo will buy the Hawaiian islands.
[/list]

[drakkarim]

whatever they come up with, i hope that at the BARE minimum they all support 720p (the real one, not the half-assed 500pixel hack stretch jobs of many games today).

technically by 2015 or so 1080p should be THE standard for all consoles, the 720p should be an 'option' not what the game was designed for.

also, keyboards/mice should be acceptable gaming inputs if so preferred by the user. this gamepad crap is so 1970's atari its not even funny.

[Wraith]

Crap. I fail at vB code, and can't edit.

Bonus predictions:

Xbox Live Music Store.

[CooterTKE]

I predict that the Xbox will have hardware issues, Playstation will be hard to develop for, and everyone will think that Nintendo is nothing more then two Wiis duct taped together.

[DaXIthR]

I fucking HATE it when people call the next Xbox the "720". What makes you think that that'll be the name? It ain't like the original was called 180.

I'm much more interested in the Xbox 1440.

[51|RandoM]

Wii Advance HD with SuperWaggle.

[Variable Gear]

Predictions:
More later...had to leave wqork RIGHT NOW!
- HDD/Flash Memory standard on all systems
- Inreased popularity of Digital Distribution
- Universal Online Gaming Networks that are ready at Launch
- Greater focus on episodic titles, even from first-party developers
- Casual games will exponentially increase in poularity

[PopoWRX]

Predictions:
More later...had to leave wqork RIGHT NOW!
- HDD/Flash Memory standard on all systems
- Inreased popularity of Digital Distribution
- Universal Online Gaming Networks that are ready at Launch
- Greater focus on episodic titles, even from first-party developers
- Casual games will exponentially increase in poularity

Since it's so far down the line, maybe move to SSD for all systems?

[Schnoogs]

Wii Advance HD with SuperWaggle.

Graphics <> gameplay

Wii Advanced will come with SNES processor

[Talanvor]

What do you get when you duct tape a Wii and a GC together?

[mightbe]

What do you get when you duct tape a Wii and a GC together?

Two Gamecubes and a Wii?

[DaXIthR]

Wii Advance HD with SuperWaggle.

You get me all hot and bothered when you talk like that. I'm going down to GameStop right now to pre-order.

[divinechaos]

Two Gamecubes and a Wii?

No, an original Xbox with waggle.

[51|RandoM]

What do you get when you duct tape a Wii and a GC together?

Three sticky gamecubes and a bunch of duct tape.

[DoubleUranium]

I hope it doesn't take until 2012 to get new systems out. A five year life span is long enough to get my money's worth out of a console.

[bean19]

Did you guys read the last part of the article? Iwata talks about how the Wii is successful for having innovative controls and how each new generation has to have some revolutionary features. What I thought when he said that is that I would love to buy a Wii that had HD graphics. Keep the cool control scheme and give it enough hardware strength to play current-gen games (or better). Oh, also make it have a suite of actually useful online features like in-game voice and cross-game friend-matching.

Then I could have my Mario and eat it too.

Silver jumpsuits, flying cars and protien pills.
Funny stuff. Thanks Citizen.

[bean19]

I hope it doesn't take until 2012 to get new systems out. A five year life span is long enough to get my money's worth out of a console.

You think so? The Xbox 360 came out November 22, 2005. Do you think we need new consoles just 2 years and 4 months from now? 2011 or 2012 is what I expect (6 or 7 years instead of 5). By then, PCs will be making our Xbox 360s and PS3s look like they are as shitty as Nintendo's pet rock.

[Schnoogs]

You think so? The Xbox 360 came out November 22, 2005. Do you think we need new consoles just 2 years and 4 months from now?

I for one don't. I love my 360 and I'm really happy with it's graphical capabilites. XBox Live is great and it's obviously evolving every day.

[TrackZero]

I fucking HATE it when people call the next Xbox the "720". What makes you think that that'll be the name? It ain't like the original was called 180.


I wasn't aware I existed to satisfy your pet peeves. ;)

[pirateTITAN]

I'm expecting Sony and Microsoft to ditch the standard controllers and go for motion-controlling too, or something else along those lines. Though I wouldn't be surprised if Sony kept with the DualShock design again. The next Wii I expect to be at the levels of the current PS3 and 360s, as by then it should be pretty cheap too pump out that level of graphics. Not mentioned in the article, but I'm expecting the PC to get close to the peak of graphics by the end of next-gen, maybe I'm just hoping.

Of course this is all just my imagination, way too early to try to pin anything down.

As for my dreams, I'm hoping for crazy revolutionary interfacing. Like plug into the game, thought that's probably way off in the future, like next-next-next gen.

[bean19]

I wasn't aware I existed to satisfy your pet peeves. ;)

Well, now you know. And one of my pet peeves is when people don't know that they exist to satisfy divinechaos's pet peeves.

Don't worry about that though, you don't exist to satisfy MY pet peeves.

[Rafer]

Any predictions?

A few years from now, the next generation of portables will be the "primary" market and home consoles will secondary. This is already happening in Japan and I think as portables get more powerful more people will gravitate for them. For people who like to game on HDTVs the next generation of portables will also be able to send video wirelessly.

Wii 2 will basically be a 360 with more RAM. So the Wii 2 will be to the 360 as the Wii is to the PS2.

Another more outlandish prediction of mine for home consoles... someone will bring back the VMU concept from the Dreamcast. So the consoles controller is also a portable gaming device. Sort of a even more integrated PSP/PS3 combo.

[Variable Gear]

More Predictions:
I'll take my Wii HD Motion Plus+ Waggle 2 with Super Mario Universe!
- Nintendo is first to release "next-gen" console, followed by Microsoft and Sony respectively.
- More robust connectivity between handheld and home console.
- Fanboys start riot.
- Gearbox-developed, squad-based Halo comes out alongside next Xbox.
- Metal Gear Solid 5 comes out alongside PS4.
- I have no idea what Nintendo is planning. They are quite unpredictable!
- Home doesn't get released until PS4 is launched.
- Microsoft actively works to prevent their hardware from sucking.
- Next-Gen Zune is compatible with all XBLM content.
- Sonic games still suck.
Since it's so far down the line, maybe move to SSD for all systems?
Good point. I could see that happening. For the PS4 and the Xbox 1080.

[bean19]

I'm expecting Sony and Microsoft to ditch the standard controllers and go for motion-controlling too, or something else along those lines.
I doubt it. Do you have a Wii? My Mom loves it because the novelty doesn't wear off that fast if you play for maybe ten hours the entire year. It stays as fresh as Trivial Pursuit and other board games that get about as much play to her and any new game makes the experience entirely new to her.

However, for all my friends who are gamers (or quasi-gamers), the remote is actually a bit of an annoying chore after a while. Unless you are playing party games, it is annoying.

They may go with hooks intended to sell their systems to a wide audience that doesn't know any better, but by the time next-gen rolls around, the Wii-mote controls will be about as attractive as the hoola-hoop.

The next Wii I expect to be at the levels of the current PS3 and 360s, as by then it should be pretty cheap too pump out that level of graphics.
It already is really cheap to pump these out. The Xbox 360, if sold for $250, would be making more profit than the Nintendo Wii made on each unit sold at launch. At this point, Nintendo is probably pocketing $150-200 on every Wii sold. (Please no stupid "It prints money" pic unless you made it yourself and/or it's new. . . the only thing worse than a repeated joke over and over is when the teller is stealing it).

The point is, they could make a Wii Advance at this point that had competitive graphics, sell it at $250 and STILL make money. They just don't have to because people are buying it with crap graphics anyway. Why give people truffles if you can sell them regular mushroosm for truffle prices?

As for my dreams, I'm hoping for crazy revolutionary interfacing. Like plug into the game, thought that's probably way off in the future, like next-next-next gen.
When this does become possible, I expect to get really, really fat. I quit smoking back in December (terrible habit I needed to quit), but as a result, I've gained literally 50 lbs. I've always been a trim athletic type until this year. . . can't imagine how a "plug-in" game console would hurt me. God, I'd be huge!

[bean19]

- Gearbox-developed, squad-based Halo comes out alongside next Xbox.
- Metal Gear Solid 5 comes out alongside PS4.
- I have no idea what Nintendo is planning. They are quite unpredictable!
Maybe this is just context. Were you being sarcastic? If you are following the "big launch game" idea, I think everyone knows they will have a Zelda or Mario game. . . but maybe you meant overall and weren't being sarcastic.

[Variable Gear]

Can you ask a question that is understandable, please?

[bean19]

Can you ask a question that is understandable, please?

Were you being sarcastic in the quote I mentioned because Nintendo is extremely predictable in their big-launch-title games, or were you saying they are unpredictable overall?

[Gorvi]

No new consoles until 2012, please. I have them all now, I don't want to buy any more hardware and I'm more than happy with what each of them do. Now portables, I'll take a PSP2 and DS2 in 2010, please.

[Variable Gear]

Were you being sarcastic in the quote I mentioned because Nintendo is extremely predictable in their big-launch-title games, or were you saying they are unpredictable overall?
I meant that they are unpredictable overall. They could be planning to create a Wii HD in order to bridge the gap between those who want graphics at least on par with the 360 and PS3 and the parents/grandparents who know nothing about gaming outside of Wii Sports and Wii Fit or they could go down the rabbit hole even more. They could even leave console gaming behind and put all of their focus on handheld systems. They are pretty predictable in what they offer at the start of a systems life. I bet they'll have a new Metroid, Zelda, Super Smash Bros., Mario or Wii [Blank] title ready for their new system. I wish they were more unpredictable in that regard. ;)

[DoubleUranium]

You think so? The Xbox 360 came out November 22, 2005. Do you think we need new consoles just 2 years and 4 months from now? 2011 or 2012 is what I expect (6 or 7 years instead of 5). By then, PCs will be making our Xbox 360s and PS3s look like they are as shitty as Nintendo's pet rock.

For my own tastes, sure, I'd love to see a new console in about 2.5 years. I think that would be a good run for the 360. You're probably right though in that it will be a 6-7 year cycle. The HD consoles have caught on too slowly, or perhaps more accurately, decreased in price too slowly to really bring in the mass market.

[Karamazov]

Microsoft and Sony jointly develop a console.

[gojira]

Any predictions?

I predict unfulfilled hype and broken promises.

[jeffbax]

360/PS3 have plenty of life left in them, have still yet to hit mass market prices, and have no need for replacement in 2010. Sony and MS aren't going to want to bring on another few billion in losses. They want to hit 140 consoles sold like the PS2, and are both a long long way away from that and 2010 isn't going to be enough time.

[cp#]

Xbox 720 will be out by 2011 at the latest.

Agreed. And I won't be buying one until at least 2013

[Kelegacy]

No new consoles until 2012, please. I have them all now, I don't want to buy any more hardware and I'm more than happy with what each of them do. Now portables, I'll take a PSP2 and DS2 in 2010, please.

What Gorvi said. If I wanted to upgrade sooner, I'd become a PC gamer again.

Squeeze the lifejuice out of the current consoles a la the PS2. Do it until we choke on the age of the thing, retch it up nice and good. The PS2 is the industry example of how to keep a console running, even after an eventual successor starts to motor in. The first Xbox is probably the worst.

[tombofsoldier]

Xbox whatever:
- October 2011
- Big hard drive (standard)
- New game drm system
- Buy any game retail or via digital download
- Install any retail game, play without dvd in drive
- Live is free
- Wont be as big a graphical leap
- More media playing\streaming stuff
- New controller design\functionality
- Big improvements to live social functionality
- Sold at cost or for a profit
- Start price =< $350
- "Casual" won't be a buzzword anymore, it shouldn't be one know but everyone's gone stupid

[tombofsoldier]

Oh, General:

Portables will become more popular, and will have online functionality.
Xbox portable
Portables will all have touchscreens. The successful ones will have built in flash storage.

PS4 will be named the PS4. Will dominate graphically.
Nintendo and MS will have backwards compatibility.
PS4 will have better online support from the get go.
Nintendo will have an easy to use, simple online interface.
Nintendo will totally ignore hardcore users, will subsequently not do nearly as well as they have done recently.

[MightyMouse]

Microsoft and Sony jointly develop a console.

An exotic architecture that burns out before lazy devs can even figure out if its too hard to develop for! Nintendo re-releases the Virtual Boy FTW.

[Wellscha]

Sega is coming.......with VENGEANCE!!!

[Koi]

More Mario/Zelda/Metroid. Also guaranteed, more Mario Kart/Smash Brothers/Pokemon/casual game featuring all IP's listed in these sentences.

What isn't guaranteed: anything new.

As for Sony and Microsoft, Final Fantasy and more generic shootan games. Just a guess, but more brown thrown in for good measure.

[Azereki]

Predictions:
- HDD/Flash Memory standard on all systems -Damn well better.
- Inreased popularity of Digital Distribution - Yes.
- Universal Online Gaming Networks that are ready at Launch - Fail if not.
- Greater focus on episodic titles, even from first-party developers - And fewer mediocre games/First-Person Shooters saturating the market.
- Casual games will exponentially increase in poularity - God, please... no. More innovative AAA titles, please. Less garbage sitting on shelves at [pick your favorite retailer]. (Looking at you late-PS2/Wii/Bold Games)

Hmmmmmmmmm.....

[vherub]

"You can communicate to a new cybercity...This will be the ideal home server. Did you see the movie 'The Matrix'? Same interface. Same concept. Starting from next year, you can jack into 'The Matrix'!"

http://www.newsweek.com/id/83236?tid=relatedcl

[Variable Gear]

Oh, General:

Portables will become more popular, and will have online functionality.

But they already already have online functionality. :confused:

[Verity]

Predictions would be hard to make at the moment, but I think it's safe to say that Forbes' eight-year prediction is going to prove incorrect. The PS3 and Xbox 360 may have some powerful hardware, but that doesn't mean they'll last that long on the market--especially given the fact that Nintendo will probably follow the typical five-year generation shift. If Nintendo comes out with Wii2 (or "Us"...) and Microsoft and Sony don't have new products to compete they're going to be in hot water.

Obviously, when making next-gen predictions, the best way to do so is to observe the three companies' directions and anticipate any shifts they may make in their future direction. Right now we see both the 360 and the PS3 maintaining a primary focus on their hardcore consumer, while expanding into the newly emerged Wii territory with more casual attractions. I think it's safe to say that this will continue into the next generation. Also, both Sony and Microsoft are going to recognize the value of having cheaper hardware (something that has given the Wii a huge advantage) and, perhaps, choose to implement that strategy in their next consoles, providing (in the best way possible) a powerful piece of hardware at a cheaper price--even if that means taking a financial hit (something they're both familiar with). I think we'll see the prices of the two companies' hardware hovering below $400 ($400 being the absolute highest they'll go). This might be a change from the companies' past strategies, but that past hadn't yet included the Wii, and Nintendo's console has veritably changed the gaming market. With Nintendo not likely shifting their direction next generation, but, rather, improving on their current one, they're going to be hard to dethrone; and Sony and Microsoft are going to have to use the aforementioned strategies if they're going to do so (that is, unless Nintendo makes a huge mistake and loses the popular eye in this or next generation).

As a final note, I think we're going to see all three companies provide their own style of motion controls, improving on what we have now. Nintendo will make another Wiimote most-likely, but I'm curious as to whether or not Sony and Microsoft will simply feature motion controls in a classic-styled controller or create their own secondary, Wiimote-styled controller.

[ResistanceAddict]

Uh... who cares?

[ResistanceAddict]

As a final note, I think we're going to see all three companies provide their own style of motion controls, improving on what we have now. Nintendo will make another Wiimote most-likely, but I'm curious as to whether or not Sony and Microsoft will simply feature motion controls in a classic-styled controller or create their own secondary, Wiimote-styled controller.

Is the Wii really a new standard rather than just an individual idea? I don't know about anyone else, but I for sure don't want to see motion controls and games that require them become a standard. I enjoy games just the way they are on the 360 and the PS3.

[Variable Gear]

Motion controls have become a standard, though. Look at the Sixaxis/DualShock3 and the upcoming Microsoft motion-sensing peripheral for proof of that. ;)

[Chameleo]

the iphone/ipod touch will give apple a taste for game development and apple will make a console/movie streamer/all-in-one media center.

[Bahamut]

And to think that I'm going to be selling all my current gen consoles in the next two months :(

[ResistanceAddict]

Motion controls have become a standard, though. Look at the Sixaxis/DualShock3 and the upcoming Microsoft motion-sensing peripheral for proof of that. ;)

No, that's fine, and I ENJOY that, but if the standard of all gaming becomes apps where you have to point at the screen, make motions with your hands/legs with no simple sit, relax and play with a simple controller at all, I would be very displeased.

[Variable Gear]

Ok, I see where you are coming from now. Yes, it would be unfortunate if all gaming went down the "point-at-shit-on-the-screen-and-move-your-hand-back-and-forth" path. Fortunately, that is very unlikely, though.