Analyts Predict Sony to Win, But Lead for 360

[Zeal]

Analysts predict Sony to ultimately capture the largest market share, but for 360 to lead the console war throughout 2008.

New hardware estimates from analysts at Piper Jaffray (table inside) have picked the Xbox 360 to maintain a lead over PS3 in the U.S. market through 2008 but ultimately tick victory for Sony. Also, hard drive equipped PSPs are tipped for mid-2006.
Today's report from Piper Jaffray has a number of optimistic figures. Overall hardware unit sales are predicted to grow 30% from 2006 to 2011. Most of that growth will be in handheld hardware, which has been tipped to grow 45% over the next cycle.

Software growth is predicted to go from $7.0 billion in 2005 to $10.0 billion in 2008. The analysts say that the sector as a whole should outperform broader market indices.

The introduction of PS3 and Revolution in the U.S. is pegged to be late 2006 with Sony introducing the rumored HD equipped PSP (presumably to tap into the iPod market) in mid-2006.

Hardware market share for the next cycle is predicted to eventually be 45%-50% for Sony, Microsoft at 35%-40% and Nintendo with 15%. That said, through 2008, Xbox 360 is predicted to be the market leader.
Source: Next-Generation (http://next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1191&Itemid=2)

[NACIONAL]

Analysts!!! the world would be a beautiful place to live, without them....

Everyone here is a an analysts... to bad we don't get paid like they do... I would be shocked if one of their predictions turns out to be true.

[Vandenh]

Hmmm.. a HD PSP might be a good idea for Sony... finally turning it into a real portable media player.

[kwillhan]

They really did get paid in the process of coming up with strange numbers like these. That's fucking awesome. I want this job badly.

Sony by 30% in 2024, based on current trends of the ever predictable home entertainment field! And they'll be using H-blueray 54, analysts say.

kel

[Heretic Machine]

I have to disagree... If the 360 does pull of a lead, it will keep it. Popularity in the game industry breeds further popularity, and having something actually make a come back and surpass a leading console or handheld is unheard of. I know the industry is very different these days with three big players, but I still don't see it happening like this.

[Vjornaxx]

Those numbers are all well and good, but unless they have a prophet to tell them what games will be released on each system and how well those games will do, then those predictions are not taking into consideration a fairly important factor

[KarmaGhost]

PSP with a hard drive? I thought that thing sucked up batteries enough as it is, all underclocked and all.

[Twigz'N'Berries]

Well, if the report from the thread about the difficulties of Blu-Ray are correct, then the PS3 won't see the light of day until late next year. That would definitely give the 360 a comfortable lead time as well as the ability to price slash once the PS3 hits. The real 360 games should be out then (games designed for the 360 from the ground up, not just switched mid-cycle from the xbox) like Huxley and GoW. The graphics should look a lot more impressive and be comparable to anything that the PS3 launches with.
The real question becomes how much will the PS3 launch for and will consumers find the backwards compatibility and the PS3 exclusive titles enough to merit the price.

Not everyone will want to 'work more hours at their jobs' to get one if the differences are small.

[score]

Maybe reports like this should tell us what other things these particular analysts have predicted in the past and how well those predictions turned out. We'd then know how much salt to equip ourselves with...

[EGO]

I have to disagree... If the 360 does pull of a lead, it will keep it. Popularity in the game industry breeds further popularity, and having something actually make a come back and surpass a leading console or handheld is unheard of. I know the industry is very different these days with three big players, but I still don't see it happening like this.

Obviously Perigon, you think gaming started circa 2000, huh? :rolleyes:

Hmm... lets take a little history lesson (off the top-o-my-head):

1978-1984 - Atari owns/invented the console market. Who's these silly Japanese upstarts? They'll never dethrown the mighty Atari.

1985-1989 - Nintendo saves the console market from oblivion and Atari is dethrowned as the market leader. Who are Nintendo? How could it be? :eek:

1990-1995 - Sega and Nintendo battle it out. Depending upon which side of the pond you're on, Sega or Nintendo are the victor, but either way; the market grows and Atari is all but dead. Nintendo and Sega will rule the videogame market FOREVER! :rolleyes:

1996-1999 - Lots of fun stuff: 3D0 comes out and muddies the waters. Atari's last gasp with the Jaguar fails miserably. Oh, but wait... Nintendo releases its Nintendo 64 to many yawns across the world. Why? Because SONY, yes, Sony a company that had NEVER done a console before come in and CRUSH both Sega and Nintendo. Sega releases a console called Dreamcast as a last ditch effort, but ultimately get out of hardware all together (who could've predicted that!?) :eek:

1999-2005 - Sony release their PS2, which completely overshadows all competition, relegating Nintendo to play... :gasp: third in the home console market BEHIND a completely new player (once again), Microsoft and their X-Box. The X-Box hardware is vastly superior to the PS2, but it's not always brute strength that wins the war.

So, looking at an abbreviated history, you see, you can NEVER predict how things will go...

[Royal Fool]

So, looking at an abbreviated history, you see, you can NEVER predict how things will go...

To his defense, Perigon was talking specifically about cconsole platforms making comebacks and winning back significant marketshare. That has never happened... sure, things can easily change during hardware cycles, but the platforms themselves are usually destined to go only one way or the other in terms of popularity.

Isn't it strange that these 'analysts' are predicting Microsoft to lead the market with the X360, but then suddenly lose their foothold to Sony's PS3 when such a thing is virtually unheard of in this little videogame entertainment industry? It's like they're trying to satisfy both sides at ones; "Oh, you're going to win for sure, but the other guys are also going to win... someday...".

They might as well just throw in a positive Revolution blurb there to round up everything.

[bobbler]

They weren't implying the PS3 was going to "suddenly" just burst ahead. The graph shows a faster sales rate for PS3 than Xbox360. The PS3 sales rate goes up while Xbox360s apparently plateaus, thats why it will apparently pass it -- it has to catch up a ~6 month gap and pass it... it wouldn't be sudden (that's why it is apparently going to take until 2008 for it to happen).

The analyst are just making a guess that almost anyone could -- Obviously Xbox360 will have a lead, it comes out earlier (duh...), and it seems like most people are expecting PS3 to sell better... put those together and what this batch of analysts said is essentially what you get.

Predicting the future in the technology market is pretty damn near impossible at times (because you often can't predict what companies will do to boost sales or what they won't do that they probably should have, etc., etc.) -- this is probably the safest prediction I've seen so far (at least on the PS3/Xbox360 side... the numbers might not be exact but it seems like a very likely case unless one of them does some crazy marketing and pulls out a few heavy hitters... and of course they will).

[Linkreincarnate]

...the numbers might not be exact but it seems like a very likely case unless one of them does some crazy marketing and pulls out a few heavy hitters... and of course they will).

You mean like what Nintendo did at TGS? :cool:

[Anenome]

New hardware estimates from analysts at Piper Jaffray (table inside) have picked the Xbox 360 to maintain a lead over PS3 in the U.S. market through 2008 but ultimately tick victory for Sony. Also, hard drive equipped PSPs are tipped for mid-2006.

Today's report from Piper Jaffray has a number of optimistic figures. Overall hardware unit sales are predicted to grow 30% from 2006 to 2011. Most of that growth will be in handheld hardware, which has been tipped to grow 45% over the next cycle.

Software growth is predicted to go from $7.0 billion in 2005 to $10.0 billion in 2008. The analysts say that the sector as a whole should outperform broader market indices.

The introduction of PS3 and Revolution in the U.S. is pegged to be late 2006 with Sony introducing the rumored HD equipped PSP (presumably to tap into the iPod market) in mid-2006.

Hardware market share for the next cycle is predicted to eventually be 45%-50% for Sony, Microsoft at 35%-40% and Nintendo with 15%. That said, through 2008, Xbox 360 is predicted to be the market leader.

It's hilarious to go back and look at some of these old 2005 predictions. 5 years later he's gotten every single fact completely wrong. Nintendo at 15%

What he did was apply historical results of the last generation to the next generation and fudge the numbers a bit via what looks good.

Still, it's not easy getting paid to be a modern-day oracle. And not every day that the market gets turned upside down by a product like the Wii. They must be right often enough to get hired >_> Still, it's analysts like this that ultimately sunk Factor 5, whom went on to bet the farm on the PS3, and then go bankrupt.

[Zeal]

this is not directed at anyone in particular, but resurrecting threads from '05 to the main page are counterproductive, clutter the news section, and are generally looked down upon by pretty much every forum out there.

this serves no purpose.

[Anenome]

I think I know good necro when I see it ;P It's still the new year, a time to look back and consider the past. If you don't think it's relevant then stopping bumping the thread, it'll drop off soon enough :P And please, couching it in "this is not directed at anyone in particular" is just silly.

[sgtslappy]

It's hilarious to go back and look at some of these old 2005 predictions. 5 years later he's gotten every single fact completely wrong. Nintendo at 15%

What he did was apply historical results of the last generation to the next generation and fudge the numbers a bit via what looks good.

Still, it's not easy getting paid to be a modern-day oracle. And not every day that the market gets turned upside down by a product like the Wii. They must be right often enough to get hired >_> Still, it's analysts like this that ultimately sunk Factor 5, whom went on to bet the farm on the PS3, and then go bankrupt.

LET IT DIE SIR, DIE.

This thread should go back to where it once came from - the archives.

[oldjadedgamer]

I found this thread amusing and just makes you have to laugh at all the stupid people before this gen starting writing off the Wii as instant failure and the PS3 as a bigger success than the PS2. Stupid, stupid people.

[TekkenZaibatsu]

I found this thread amusing and just makes you have to laugh at all the stupid people before this gen starting writing off the Wii as instant failure and the PS3 as a bigger success than the PS2. Stupid, stupid people.

Oh, PLEASE with the condescending BS. It's only "stupid" (X 3) to you becaue it now turned out to simply not be true.

[Agnostic Pope]

Analysts!!! the world would be a beautiful place to live, without them....


I couldn't agree more!

[Zeal]

gaming wise, i think many hardcore gamers still consider the Wii a failure, regardless of sales.

but can we please let this dusty old thread, die. i hate necro. shit.

[Anenome]

I have to disagree... If the 360 does pull of a lead, it will keep it. Popularity in the game industry breeds further popularity, and having something actually make a come back and surpass a leading console or handheld is unheard of. I know the industry is very different these days with three big players, but I still don't see it happening like this.
See this guy, right here? Thus 3-post motherfucker was about 100 times more accurate than the paid analyst! lol!

[Johan]

See this guy, right here? Thus 3-post motherfucker was about 100 times more accurate than the paid analyst! lol!

The 3-post dude actually had many thousands of them, prior to the implosion. He was quite prolific, actually. :D

[Suicidal ShiZuru]

The 3-post dude actually had many thousands of them, prior to the implosion. He was quite prolific, actually. :D

Ha I was scrolling down to say something similar. I laughed so hard when he said "3-post mother fucker"...

Damn now that I think about it I lost a lot of posts as well as many others...

[Zeal]

Ha I was scrolling down to say something similar. I laughed so hard when he said "3-post mother fucker"...

Damn now that I think about it I lost a lot of posts as well as many others...

you know the geek that always shows up to parties and pretends to know everyone there? the kid who tries to slap hands with everyone and gets ignored? that reminds me of Anenome on this forum.

[Anenome]

you know the geek that always shows up to parties and pretends to know everyone there? the kid who tries to slap hands with everyone and gets ignored? that reminds me of Anenome on this forum.
Lol, you're trollin' is pathetic ^_~ Boxxy, you tell 'im.
Cdiz0k0Rudw

[Agnostic Pope]

I would rip off boxxy's spine and beat her with it if I saw her. Fucking schizo!

[Anenome]

Aww, I think she's kewt, if incredibly spastic, but that's part of the charm :P Still, she's not far off most 13-15 year olds :P There's a reason American Idol has a 16 year age minimum :P

[Agnostic Pope]

I'd hit it. You'd hit it. Just in different ways btw she is prob 17 now.

[Anenome]

But what console does Boxxy own? :P

[oldjadedgamer]

Oh, PLEASE with the condescending BS. It's only "stupid" (X 3) to you becaue it now turned out to simply not be true.

Nope, at the time I was saying up and down that people were dumb to write off the Wii since I saw it as a DS on your TV screen and of course it was going to be popular. I also predicted that Sony would not keep their crown not only because of the old history rule that no company rules three gens in a row but that they were trying to pack too much new tech into the system and were going to price themselves out of the market.

I'm smug because I actually called this gen almost to a T. The stupid people were the ones that assumed that things were going to always stay the way they were and nothing was going to change.

[Agnostic Pope]

But what console does Boxxy own? :P

Nothing she is a girl after all and girlz don't play video games SONY

http://www.next-gen.biz/news/new-purple-psp-aimed-at-girl-gamers

Basically this!

Sony Exec 1: Girl's aren't buying the PSP.

Sony Exec 2: Something must be done for which we can take credit.

Lowly Sony Intern: There are lots of great games out there that are very popular with girls. We could maybe stimulate development of games like Loco Roco and Katamari.

Sony Exec 1: You idiot. Girls don't like games like that. Females are simple creatures who like clothing and bright colors.

Sony Exec 2: Exactly. What we need is a... PINK PSP!

Sony Exec 1: Oooooooh. But wait, Exec 2, I think you're maintaining a sexist stereotype.

Sony Exec 2: Oh yes?

Sony Exec 1: Indeed. Females apparently prefer shades of purple like lavender and lilac. Pink is a common misconception.

Sony Exec 2: This is excellent. We can easily take credit for this.

Lowly Sony Intern: But... what about games like The Sims, which are incredibly popular with both sexes. Shouldn't we try and make more of those?

Sony Execs 1 & 2: ....... You're fired.

Boxxy: So I like this guy I do DRUGS (laughs becomes possessed and starts twitching like FF7 models) = Purple psp basic math!

[Anenome]

Haha, that was pretty good ^_^ They coulda just rebranded it as a feminine hygiene product: "PSP, now with wings" >_>

Tons and toooons of girls play the GB/DS though. I think one dimension of the lack of girls playing the PSP is definitely the target-age. Girls at the 21+ age aren't trying to play games on the go, they really aren't. Maybe the younger generation will when they get up there though. It's still pretty damn nerdy for a guy to own one for that matter.

[TekkenZaibatsu]

Nope, at the time I was saying up and down that people were dumb to write off the Wii since I saw it as a DS on your TV screen and of course it was going to be popular. I also predicted that Sony would not keep their crown not only because of the old history rule that no company rules three gens in a row but that they were trying to pack too much new tech into the system and were going to price themselves out of the market.

I'm smug because I actually called this gen almost to a T. The stupid people were the ones that assumed that things were going to always stay the way they were and nothing was going to change.

I feel my point still stands. To call someone "stupid" for their prediction is asinine. So everyone who ends up wrong is "stupid?" Um, okay...

[Anenome]

I found this thread amusing and just makes you have to laugh at all the stupid people before this gen starting writing off the Wii as instant failure and the PS3 as a bigger success than the PS2. Stupid, stupid people.
Well, he's not calling any specific person stupid, and he is old and jaded, I think he gets a pass, lol :P

[Zeal]

this forum is so dead that necro-threads from '05 are being allowed in the daily news section.

am i the only one who sees the fucking problem with this. jesus. GET SOME REAL MODS.

[Anenome]

And yet you're in here bumping it :P Look I'm against thread necro in general too, but sometimes it's called for ;) And when it's not, it falls off the recent comments list pretty quick, so there's no problem.

[Zeal]

And yet you're in here bumping it :P Look I'm against thread necro in general too, but sometimes it's called for ;) And when it's not, it falls off the recent comments list pretty quick, so there's no problem.

you're not against thread necros, you fucking retard. you're the one doing them. you're also the one posting up to 12 fucking lines talking to yourself in each god damn thread 24/fucking 7. if there was ever an idiot allowed to totally trash a forum, it's your stupid ass.

either way, i'm out. greener pastures, yada yada speech. peace, bitch.

[Anenome]

Lol, you just can't stop yourself from coming back, bumping the thread you claim should be allowed to die again, taking me off ignore, complaining, whining, just get lost. At least I have something to say. And I said "in general" lrn2read.

[blackzc]

We will see, i really think that nintendo isnt going to make the same mistakes it did with the gamecube.

[Suicidal ShiZuru]

blah blah blah

LOL look at BOXXY!@!!!! EL OH ELLLL SMILE FACE EMOTICON!!! ^^^__^^^''''' Kawaii!!! 8 ))))) <)o_o(>

The idiots like you are why this place is practically dead. Go start a caturday thread too you douchebag. This isnt 4Chan and posting Boxxy just screams "im an annoying attention whore trying to troll trolling trolls! hurr durr" and is just unnecessary.

There is NO REASON to res a thread from this long ago except to keep on padding that post count. Now please have fun replying to my post with seven different ones of your own that will all be equally worthless.

[TeeCakes]

LOL look at BOXXY!@!!!! EL OH ELLLL SMILE FACE EMOTICON!!! ^^^__^^^''''' Kawaii!!! 8 ))))) <)o_o(>

The idiots like you are why this place is practically dead. Go start a caturday thread too you douchebag. This isnt 4Chan and posting Boxxy just screams "im an annoying attention whore trying to troll trolling trolls! hurr durr" and is just unnecessary.

There is NO REASON to res a thread from this long ago except to keep on padding that post count. Now please have fun replying to my post with seven different ones of your own that will all be equally worthless.

Upvoted. This is certainly the main reason why I don't visit this site as much as I used to.

[blackzc]

Uh oh, i sense an uprising.... This site is the same as its been since i got here 4 years ago from a warppipe.com link. I don't remember a time when this place was any busier, maybe i just wasn't paying attention.

[Dag-Sabot]

Upvoted. This is certainly the main reason why I don't visit this site as much as I used to.
Me either. That and the flash ads you can see from space.