Nevada and South Carolina

[Whimbrel]

I'm still a bit unsettled by Michigan and New Hampshire, but I'm going with McCain/Clinton in Nevada and McCain/Obama in SC. I would like Edwards to win, but I think most voters percieve a need to weigh in on Clinton/ Obama before either one gains any more momentum and we get a tipping point problem with a runaway nominee. Considering how much is at stake for republicans in 08, I don't like the idea of a candidate being a swift boat sitting duck for so many months. I think that the longer the Democrats can maintain a deep bench, the better. On the Republican side, it really seems all over the map.

[Gitaroomaan]

Romney's already got it in Nevada. Source (http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/19/nevada.sc.main/index.html)

[Whimbrel]

I'll edit my predictions in the OP to look like less of an idiot.

Wasn't sure how much the M factor would affect Nevada, but it looks like it was big. Now I'll bet Utah swings the Romney way on Feb. 5th.

I'm surprised about the early returns. The last few had me waiting until 8 at night for real news.

[IrishWhiskey]

Daily Kos claims to have some Nevada Democratic internals showing Clinton retaining her lead at 44% of the vote in. Given that patterns been holding steady a while, it looks like Nevada is going for Hillary.


Wasn't sure how much the M factor would affect Nevada, but it looks like it was big. Now I'll bet Utah swings the Romney way on Feb. 5th.A bold prediction. A stateful of conservative Mormons voting for Romney? Whatever you say crazy-person.

[IrishWhiskey]

Republican South Carolina Primary
82 percent of precincts reporting

McCain 120,963 (33%)
Huckabee 107,344 (30%)
Thompson 58,103 (16%)
Romney 48,480 (15%)
Paul 13,215 (4%)
Giuliani 7,515 (2%)
Hunter 883 (0%) A number of networks are projecting McCain the winner, which comes as a bit of a surprise to me. I thought Huckabee might beat him there, as he's been focusing on SC more (read: pandering), and McCain still has very little support from the Republican base. It'll be interesting to see how the exit polls turn out.

This is definately a big shot in the arm for McCain's campaign, who is looking more and more like a frontrunner, and another nail in the coffin for Thompson and Giuliani. At this point those two are just embarrassing themselves. Giuliani is out of money and polling horribly, placing dead last over and over in each contest (except for non-candidate Duncan Hunter) and this was supposed to be Thompson's last hope, and he blew it.

[Johan]

It would be good if we could get the Dem. contest down to just Clinton and Obama, and the Republican one down to McCain, Huckabee, and Romney.

A little more focus going to "Super Tuesday" would be nice. None of the rest has a shot at winning at this point.

I enjoyed voting today, as did my wife. It feels good to exercise one's right to take part in the political process, even if it smells like a pile of shit and is imperfect in most ways.

[Wraith]

Nevada - Republicans: Mitt Romney 22,629 (51.1%)
Ron Paul 6,077 (13.7%)
John McCain 5,641 (12.7%)
Mike Huckabee 3,607 (8.1%)
Fred D. Thompson 3,518 (7.9%)
Rudolph W. Giuliani 1,907 (4.3%)
Duncan Hunter 890 (2.0%)Nevada - Democrats: Hillary Rodham Clinton 5,355 (50.7%)
Barack Obama 4,773 (45.2%)
John Edwards 396 (3.8%)
Uncommitted 31 (0.3%)
Dennis J. Kucinich 5 (0.0%)
Joseph R. Biden Jr. 0 (0.0%)
Christopher J. Dodd 0 (0.0%)
Mike Gravel 0 (0.0%)
Bill Richardson 0 (0.0%) NY Times (http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/states/NV.html)

[IrishWhiskey]

Nevada - Democrats:NY Times (http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/states/NV.html)Worth pointing out that Nevada has a funky system. Apparently Obama gets more delegates from the state than Hillary, despite getting fewer votes. And on the Republican side it was so much of a foregone conclusion that MSNBC called it for Romney with 0% reporting.

[TheKeck]

Nevada - Republicans:Nevada - Democrats:NY Times (http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/states/NV.html)
Ron Paul takes second, huh? A little interesting.

[IrishWhiskey]

An interesting point:
In 2000 McCain took 237,888 votes in South Carolina, which he lost in a big way. Tonight he has just over half those number of votes with 134,474. Republican turnout will be well below where it was in 2000. And even after five Republican primaries, Rudy Giuliani has half the number of votes of Ron Paul.The low Republican-turnout and high Democratic-turnout is a trend across all the primaries so far. And Giuliani still gets fawning praise for the national media declaring him to be a brilliant strategist on the edge of a comeback, while Paul is dismissed, ignored or excluded.

[Whimbrel]

Aside from Arkansas, how many more states could Huckabee possibly win?

[Zanzibar]

About the GOP side, my girlfriend said it best: "I'm just tired of looking at old white men."

..Hm. At least, I was HOPING she was talking about politics.

[Superman's Dead]

After that judge upholding the voting locations for casino workers and Obama's brilliant political maneuvering, I kinda expected him to win straight up...I guess it's a different kind of democrat that voted more.

[cp#]

Ron Paul takes second, huh? A little interesting.

Not interesting enough (http://rattube.com/blog1/2008/01/20/nevada-abc-news-lies-about-ron-pauls-2nd-place-finish/), it seems (http://www.thinkmoderate.com/2008/01/disgraceful-coverage-of-ron-pauls.html).

[Rambilin]

Ron Paul takes second, huh? A little interesting.

Being in Nevada it isn't all that surprising. He was the only Republican who came to our State and he had tons of advertising via billboards, TV and his vanalistic guerrilla marketers. The reason he didn't win outright was probably due to the huge number of Mormons in Southern Nevada (i.e. Las Vegas) that probably voted as a bloc for Romney while Paul really only catered to Northern Nevada i.e. rural cowboy individual rights Nevada. I think Paul flat out won Carson City and Douglas County.

[Rambilin]

Not interesting enough (http://rattube.com/blog1/2008/01/20/nevada-abc-news-lies-about-ron-pauls-2nd-place-finish/), it seems (http://www.thinkmoderate.com/2008/01/disgraceful-coverage-of-ron-pauls.html).

That is really sad. I mean the guy doesn't have a chance in hell and the media doesn't care for him, but to flat out lie. Just sad.

[Disgustipated]

Not interesting enough (http://rattube.com/blog1/2008/01/20/nevada-abc-news-lies-about-ron-pauls-2nd-place-finish/), it seems (http://www.thinkmoderate.com/2008/01/disgraceful-coverage-of-ron-pauls.html).

Heh, fucked by the media.

[tehhu1k]

Heh, fucked by the media AGAIN.

*fixed

I no longer find this surprising from FOX 'News'...but damn...CNN too? :_[

[pseudopseudo]

Being in Nevada it isn't all that surprising. He was the only Republican who came to our State and he had tons of advertising via billboards, TV and his vanalistic guerrilla marketers. The reason he didn't win outright was probably due to the huge number of Mormons in Southern Nevada (i.e. Las Vegas) that probably voted as a bloc for Romney while Paul really only catered to Northern Nevada i.e. rural cowboy individual rights Nevada. I think Paul flat out won Carson City and Douglas County.

What he said. If anything, I was a little surprised that Ron Paul didn't do better. You can't go anywhere in Vegas without being bombarded by Ron Paul signs/billboards/propaganda of all sorts. Not that it sways people TOO incredibly much, but *someone's* gotta be putting that all up, and it's not just one person, y'know?

[torrefaction]

About the GOP side, my girlfriend said it best: "I'm just tired of looking at old white men."

..Hm. At least, I was HOPING she was talking about politics.

The funny thing is, my girl says the same thing. She likes Ron Paul a lot as far as the debates go. But she's scared of how old he is. She thinks he'd get excited if he won, and have a heart attack.