Analyst's Say PS3 May Not Launch Until 2007

[Oddmaker]

Gamespot (http://www.gamespot.com) has an article on what Analyst's think that the PS3 wont launch untill 2007.

Buried in an analyst's memo, written shortly after last week's Electronic Arts earnings call, was a hidden gem. According to the widely read team at Wedbush Morgan Securities, Sony may delay the release of the PlayStation 3 until 2007--if exactly the right conditions prevail.

Currently, the console is slated to appear in Japan before the end of that company's fiscal year--March 31, 2006--and in North America before the end of 2006.

Given the right set of circumstances, however, that release window (at least in North America) could intentionally lag until after the 2006 holiday buying season.

In a research memo sent to investors, Wedbush senior analyst Michael Pachter set up the following scene for a delayed PS3 launch. It starts with the current-generation Xbox being priced down to $99 post-Xbox 360 launch, but no lower. Concurrent with that situation--an Xbox 360 at an unspecified price and the Xbox at $99--Sony would drop the price of the PlayStation 2 to $99.
Read more of it over at Gamespot (http://www.gamespot.com/news/2005/08/02/news_6129862.html).

[Red Cloak]

I'm not waiting for 2007. Sorry, Jak Kart racing isnt going to cut it.

[superherotaco]

Pre-order today!

[Roc Ingersol]

Wow. That guy's an idiot.

Consoles launch to the early-adopter crowd. Those people aren't 'distracted' by a price cut. If that was the case, then Sony would've hamstrung itself by launching the PSone alongside the PS2. Last I checked, while the PSone outsold the PS2 - it didn't harm anything.

All that aside: the $150 xbox beat the $150 ps2 last christmas. Why would a $100 ps2 automatically sell so much more that it'd in any way effect the 360 launch?

No-one's buying a $100 console instead of a $300 console. They're complementary markets.

[kokyunage]

And analysts are right what, 2 percent of the time?

[Librum]

Whenever I read articles written by 'experts' relating to technology trends, I think back to a piece I read in early 2004 regarding Apple in their silly quest to produce a small, hard-drive based MP3 player that was more expensive than the competitors' products and it didn't hold as much music or have as many features. Surely it was going to be a niche product.

So not only was he wrong, he was completely ass-backwards wrong. When I read this article I had similar thoughts, and also knew that here is a guy who has never even picked up a game controller before in his life, or really has any grasp of why people buy consoles or any other hardware.

Delaying the console until 2007 would be about the worst thing they could possibly do - they want to remain neck and neck and not let it look like anyone else stole a march on them, or lose the hype. Since, over a year from now, the rest of the technology world will have moved on and those specs will look a lot less impressive.

[Commissar Rob]

Soooo, is it just me or have Sony and Microsoft switched places this upcoming generation? With the Xbox and PS2...Sony was "firstest with the mostest" - no flames please, Dreamcast fans - while Microsoft held off to introduce a more powerful - and expensive to produce - machine.

Now Microsoft will be first out of the gate and Sony is holding back...interesting. Wonder how it'll come up this time around?

[Kentor]

Whenever I read articles written by 'experts' relating to technology trends, I think back to a piece I read in early 2004 regarding Apple in their silly quest to produce a small, hard-drive based MP3 player that was more expensive than the competitors' products and it didn't hold as much music or have as many features. Surely it was going to be a niche product.
Don't you mean PortablePlayer, not Apple?

[Klade]

Ok for now on my new title is Klade the Analyst. So when I make wild guesses about random things we can put up news stories about it. Here is my first analysis exclusive to Evil Avatar.

The Nintendo Revolution's controller will be edible. Taste technology is to be the new thing!

To save money the Xbox 360 will actually be made out of cardboard. It will come with crayons for the kiddies to draw on.

The PS3 will be waterproof for portable under water playing. But this feature will delay it in North America for 3 years but bring up its release date in Japan by 2 months.

[Justin_McElroy]

This is what you want people! That makes the PS3 "The Console of the FUTURE!" Don't you want the console of the future?

[MrMeatshake]

i know, i know; it's incredibly pedantic, but please (http://www.apostrophe.fsnet.co.uk/) - 'analysts' is surely a pluralisation, u don't need the apostrophe! honestly, tycho would have a field day ;)

back OT: i can't remember the last time i gave a shit about what an analyst thought about anything related to gaming.

[Kefkataran]

i know, i know; it's incredibly pedantic, but please - 'analysts' is surely a pluralisation, u don't need the apostrophe! honestly, tycho would have a field day

Err... admittedly, I'm something of a grammar nazi on ocassion, being an English major and all... but does it really make sense to be like that within a sentence such as the one you just composed? I mean honestly? 'U'? And that's not mentioning the way it's set up.

[Mrbunchypants]

back OT: i can't remember the last time i gave a shit about what an analyst thought about anything related to gaming.


I'm with you. Didn't some film critics say Starwars was going to suck....

Analyst are good for stocks we are talking about the masses. about games. stuff that the filck masses can change there minds about in a heart beat.

[MrMeatshake]

Err... admittedly, I'm something of a grammar nazi on ocassion, being an English major and all... but does it really make sense to be like that within a sentence such as the one you just composed? I mean honestly? 'U'? And that's not mentioning the way it's set up.

okokok, i was, using, far 2 many commas, yes. but i also found what u just wrote impossible to read. touché...

[mos]

http://www.angryflower.com/bobsqu.gif

I like to nazi things up as often as I can when it comes to grammar.

Or should that be, "when it comes to grammar, I like to nazi things up as often as I can"? Shit.

Grammar, when it comes to it, I like to nazi.

[MrMeatshake]

I'm with you. Didn't some film critics say Starwars was going to suck....

eerrrrrm... <no comment/>

[Zanzibar]

I'm with you. Didn't some film critics say Starwars was going to suck....



The analysts were right, they were just making their predictions a few years too early. They became correct in 1983. And continue to be correct until today.

[Kefkataran]

okokok, i was, using, far 2 many commas, yes. but i also found what u just wrote impossible to read. touché...

That may be, but what I wrote was all (or mostly at least) correct grammar-wise. Yours? Eh, not so much. I'm just saying, if you're going to be a grammar nazi, at least go through the trouble of capitalizing and writing out full words yourself. Otherwise you just look sort of foolish.

[kokyunage]

Back on topic...

when are we changing the EA logo?

http://www.altsitesltd.com/evil.jpg

[Kefkataran]

I'm with you. Didn't some film critics say Starwars was going to suck....

Wait-wait, don't film critics not equal analysts? I'm not even sure what that means.

[Red Cloak]

Back on topic...

when are we changing the EA logo?

http://www.altsitesltd.com/evil.jpg

You have to admit Sony makes it so easy :p

[MrMeatshake]

That may be, but what I wrote was all (or mostly at least) correct grammar-wise. Yours? Eh, not so much. I'm just saying, if you're going to be a grammar nazi, at least go through the trouble of capitalizing and writing out full words yourself. Otherwise you just look sort of foolish.

i do look sort of foolish, yes. that's the look i'm going for. it's my look, and i'm proud of it. :)

as for bad grammar: ok, but i was criticising the punctuation, not the grammar. i can deal with bad grammar, but i get annoyed that most people who've learned english as a foreign language seem to be better at basic punctuation rules than we native speakers are (and the americans... sorry, couldn't resist).

look, i realise i was being pedantic, and i'm sure i agree that i'm not qualified to cast the first stone, but the apostrophe thing just gets to me :rolleyes:

[TrackZero]

Soooo, is it just me or have Sony and Microsoft switched places this upcoming generation? With the Xbox and PS2...Sony was "firstest with the mostest" - no flames please, Dreamcast fans - while Microsoft held off to introduce a more powerful - and expensive to produce - machine.

Now Microsoft will be first out of the gate and Sony is holding back...interesting. Wonder how it'll come up this time around?

Well considering the DreamCast was a "comeback" machine after the flop of Saturn, it's advertising campaign left the masses confused about what they were selling (until too late in the systems lifespan) AND the PS2 had backwards compatibility, it's clear why things happened the way that they did. Not to mention how Nintendo had only recently fallen from grace at that point, so they weren't considered a "contender". It wasn't until Xbox came along that everything changed.

This generation is going to be completely different, any claims of 360 being a Dreamcast is just Sony fanboys crossing their fingers and hoping the competition will just up and go away.

[Kefkataran]

i do look sort of foolish, yes. that's the look i'm going for. it's my look, and i'm proud of it.

I like that. That's you, that's who you are. :p Really, though, no hard feelings. Even though punctuation is part of grammar. ;) I still love you most of the time.

This generation is going to be completely different, any claims of 360 being a Dreamcast is just Sony fanboys crossing their fingers and hoping the competition will just up and go away.

I'm not sure I agree with that. I mean, yeah, calling the 360 the next Dreamcast is wishful thinking at best. But why is this generation going to be so completely different?

[ElectricMonk]

you know the right conditions could be present for them to delay. if it becomes impossible for them to meet their current launch date, for example. or if they think people are 'holding out' for the ps3 like they got people to do with the dreamcast.

i personally won't be getting either system until their first price cut. i've been an early adopter with so many systems and it just dosen't pay off.

[TrackZero]

Back on topic...

when are we changing the EA logo?

http://www.altsitesltd.com/evil.jpg

One could make the point that maybe, better educated, "hardcore" gamers respect the Xbox more as it does have quite a few superior points. PS2 is in many ways an inferior system, it just happened to be the market leader this generation (for reasons I posted above), thus it had a larger selection of games. This isn't Gamespot (i.e. a site full of 14-16 year old kids who grew up loving Sony as much as the older crowd loved Nintendo and love anything they do), but that doesn't mean we should be pigenholed either. If a company is making mistakes, I'll criticize them, that simple.

Of recent note though, the only thing MS has "fucked up" for the 360 is the possible lack of HD-DVD drives at launch, other than that, the box is exactly what many of us want. While the PS3 is seemingly making new mistakes daily (this far from launch too, not a good sign). Though it could be because Ken can't keep his yap shut.

Anyways, to summarize. I just wanted to say that I've found EvilAv full of just as many Nintendo lovers as Xbox ones and that maybe you're just taking it too personally that we all don't love everything Sony says/does.

(Hell, all this not even mentioning the PC. Or the portables, of which there are many PSP lovers on this site.)

[Kefkataran]

One could make the point that maybe, better educated, "hardcore" gamers respect the Xbox more as it does have quite a few superior points. PS2 is in many ways an inferior system

I disagree with this point. I consider myself pretty well educated and fairly hardcore to boot, but I'd still choose PS2 over Xbox any day. Don't get me wrong, Xbox is obviously the more powerful of the two systems, but PS2 just has more games of higher quality, especially in terms of exclusives. Then again, I'm not that annoyed by the EA community's supposed Xbox bias either, even though it does lead to a few people jumping on me for even mentioning liking PS2 and Gamecube somewhat often. That's my two cents.

[bapenguin]

Back on topic...

when are we changing the EA logo?

http://www.altsitesltd.com/evil.jpg

I guess you didn't notice the article right after this one?

[TrackZero]

I'm not sure I agree with that. I mean, yeah, calling the 360 the next Dreamcast is wishful thinking at best. But why is this generation going to be so completely different?

Apparently you read none of my thread. So I'll bullet point it, thus making it easier for the "kids" to start replying to me (which is why I hate to bullet point, damnit).

1) 360 IS backwards compatible.
2) 360 WILL have a great marketing campaign (it's been proven time and again, MS "gets it" when it comes to marketing, unlike Sega did).
3) Microsoft is not coming out of nowhere this time, the "brand" is positively known.
4) Microsoft is no Sega. They've got deep pockets, and will not be just running out of money and giving up like what happened to the DC. They're going for the win, period.

All this being aside from the box itself, just showing that the situation is not the same as what happened for the Dreamcast, at all. It is wishful thinking to even try to compare the two. Now, whether the game lineups are good or not is another story entirely, but I don't imagine it being an issue (and I don't want to sidetrack my only point, that the 360 is not the Dreamcast, NOT to be confused with an argument over whether the 360 will "win" or not against the PS3, please take that elsewhere).

[Oddmaker]

Well i love xbox so im buying a xbox360 and i dont care about the ps3 in any way.

[TrackZero]

I disagree with this point. I consider myself pretty well educated and fairly hardcore to boot, but I'd still choose PS2 over Xbox any day. Don't get me wrong, Xbox is obviously the more powerful of the two systems, but PS2 just has more games of higher quality, especially in terms of exclusives. Then again, I'm not that annoyed by the EA community's supposed Xbox bias either, even though it does lead to a few people jumping on me for even mentioning liking PS2 and Gamecube somewhat often. That's my two cents.

Hey, that's your call to like the PS2, it does have some great games. But it simply isn't as versatile or powerful as the Xbox. With regards to exclusives though, I'm kind of left confused about what ones you're refering to. The only games that the PS2 has I can't get elsewhere is Gran Turismo and the Final Fantasy games...everything else is (if not at launch) ported to the Xbox, with superior graphics/extras.

Really, this whole bloody generation came down to market share and who got-in-what first. Personally I can't wait for it to be over. I'm expecting the next-gen to be on more equal footing at the start, much like SNES/Genesis or N64/PS1, which is always more fun as a gamer IMHO.

[Goronmon]

Doesn't analyst mean anyone with an anus?

Seriously, I mean, why does anyone assume that sticking the "he's an analyst" title on someone's opinions makes them any more credible than anyone else who knows how to work a mouse and keyboard?

[VoodooKarma]

When will some of you guys learn? I will never understand why people give news like this so much credence when none of the next-gen systems have even launched yet and there is so much hype and bs floating around. You just gotta wait until the dust settles and see what happens. 'News' like this is good for entertainment value but take this kind of 'news' with a grain of salt. Besides, any real gamer with the financial means will have all of the next gen systems eventually whether they come out in 2007 or 2020 as they will all have games you will want to play. Personally, I am rooting for all 3 companies to do well as that means more toys for this adult child to play with!

[Cha-Ka]

any claims of 360 being a Dreamcast is just Sony fanboys crossing their fingers and hoping the competition will just up and go away.

Anyone who wants to see less competition is more interested in being a fanboy than they are in games. Competition brings out the best in all things. We all stand to be winners while there's three competitors duking it out for our game dollars. C'mon people...play games; not consoles!

[kokyunage]

If a company is making mistakes, I'll criticize them, that simple.

Spare the Bill O’Reilly "Fair and Balanced" bullshit. I'm not even a Sony PS2 owner, but all the Sony bashing is just getting irritating. It seems every news item regarding Sony I can name 5 or 6 people that consistently spin the news or slam is as "See, PS3 suX0rs.”

Let’s take a look at the front page Sony articles:

PS3 May Get 2x Or Faster BluRay Drive
Analyst's Say PS3 May Not Launch Until 2007
PS3 Backward Incompatability
PSM: "The PS3 hard drive will not be used for games"

Out of those, only top one could be positive. Now, obviously you can’t control the news or what’s released. However, what’s common inside all those threads are the same people bashing Sony left and right. It’s getting tiring. We know what your opinions already. We got them 100 threads ago.

P.S. TrackZero, I’m not specifically targeting you on my little rant here, just an overall commentary.

[solinari6]

With regards to exclusives though, I'm kind of left confused about what ones you're refering to. The only games that the PS2 has I can't get elsewhere is Gran Turismo and the Final Fantasy games...everything else is (if not at launch) ported to the Xbox, with superior graphics/extras.
Well there are a bunch of platformers that don't get ported to xbox, like Rachet and Clank, Jak & Daxter, Sly Cooper, etc... If you are into those kind of platformers, the xbox doesn't have much going for it.

Not to mention Katamari Demac???i, and a ton of japanese RPGs...

[51|RandoM]

But it simply isn't as versatile or powerful as the Xbox.


Does it play the games I want to play? Yes or No, that is the only real deciding factor if one has to pick just one console. Power is pretty meaningless, when you get right down to it. Ease of programming and marketshare is what puts the developers on your platform, and that in turn is what puts the great games on your platform.

Versatile? for what? They're both shitty dvd players, they both have harddrives(one built-in, the other an addon). They both have internet options, etc. etc. etc. I don't want a versatile jack of all trades, I want a master of gaming.

With regards to exclusives though, I'm kind of left confused about what ones you're refering to. The only games that the PS2 has I can't get elsewhere is Gran Turismo and the Final Fantasy games...everything else is (if not at launch) ported to the Xbox, with superior graphics/extras.


Gran Turismo and Final Fantasy are pretty sweet franchises to have exclusive, don't you think? Squaresoft was a huge factor in ps1/ps2 success.

The real reason the ps2 'won', if only in terms of marketshare, was because of backwards compatibility with ps1. ps3 will win this generation too, albeit by a smaller margin. Both companies will lose money on hardware, while Nintendo profitability marches on.

[Dracula-X]

However, what’s common inside all those threads are the same people bashing Sony left and right. It’s getting tiring. We know what your opinions already. We got them 100 threads ago.
Have to agree with you, it's been going on far too long. It's one thing to have an opinion and intelligently debate for or against one side or another, it's another thing to turn this place into a teenage toilet wasteland with the same, predictable, and decidedly anti-Sony ravings. EA has a great community, and it even has console diehards who manage to not come off like retarded fanboys, which I can really appreciate.

I actually wouldn't be surprised if the same 5 or 6 ppl you mention are actually the same 2 or 3 people :)

[Kefkataran]

The only games that the PS2 has I can't get elsewhere is Gran Turismo and the Final Fantasy games...everything else is (if not at launch) ported to the Xbox, with superior graphics/extras.


God of War, Katamari Damacy, the above-mentioned platformers, and almost any RPG released this generation (minus KOTOR 1/2 and Jade Empire). Possibly more. I'd check my PS2 pile if I were home. Of course if you're not a big fan of RPGs or platformers, that's not such a big deal. Another huge draw for me is the MGS series. Yes, they tend to end up getting ported after a few months, and as you said, the Xbox is definitely technically superior so the ports end up generally being marginally nicer. But that small margin of nicer isn't enough to convince me to wait a year plus to play the MGS and Grand Theft Auto titles.

Oh, and I like PS2's controller more for almost every game type except first person shooters (which I tend to play on PC only anyways), but unless the crappy look for the PS3 controller changes, that's somewhat likely to change.

[Goronmon]

How the heck did this turn into a "Which console has the better exclusives" debate? Go make a separate post. :p

[Kefkataran]

Asking for an Evil Avatar thread to not get derailed off-topic is like asking your garden to start growing gold coins. This is even more true when I become involved, unfortunately. What can I say, I get distracted.

[Goronmon]

Asking for an Evil Avatar thread to not get derailed off-topic is like asking your garden to start growing gold coins. This is even more true when I become involved, unfortunately. What can I say, I get distracted.
I wouldn't mind so much if it didn't get derailed for the same pointless topics over and over again :p

[Kefkataran]

Hey, that's not my doing! If I've discussed a topic before I try to stear clear of it 90% of the time because I find it boring. But at least the discussion here was staying clean and civil without much fanboyism or veiled insulting, eh?

[Zanzibar]

The reason why Sony is so easy to pick on is because Ken Kutaragi is completely out of his skull. Never seen so many outlandish quotes from one guy, with the POSSIBLE exception of the former Iraqi Information Minister. (http://www.theinformationminister.com/press.php?ID=612301547) If the Minister beats him, it ain't by much.

[president_fred]

Personally I hope the 360 stays number 2 by a considerable margin because MS treats gamers very well at the moment to gain market share. I know what deal I will be getting from sony as market leaders and I know what to expect from Nintendo as niche console. If the 360 becomes number 1 I expect MS to treats us pretty shit and Sony to start becoming the knights in shining armour to gain market share.
Getting all three consoles wont be cheap but then again if my hobby was space exploration that would cost money too.

[TheHulk]

You would also think a company as big as Sony would be able to pull off a worldwide release instead of always making the rest of the world wait 6 months.

[Heretic Machine]

Did you know: More people complain about Sony-bashing on Evil Avatar than there are Sony-bashers on this site.

[Phades]

I will buy a PS3, I don't care when it comes out. I will also buy an Xbox 360 and Revolution. I don't care when those come out. My PC's video card and CPU will continue to be periodically updated.

When the best games and exclusive titles are released I will buy them and play them and not really care about what system they are on. After all, when you're completely absorbed in a game are you really thinking about the system that you're playing it on?

[TrackZero]

How the heck did this turn into a "Which console has the better exclusives" debate? Go make a separate post. :p

Because I mistakenly made the point that generally the more "hardcore" gamers appreciate the Xbox's hardware, which was a mistake to say aloud (even though I still believe it). Ah well, too late now.

[nonchalance]

Because I mistakenly made the point that generally the more "hardcore" gamers appreciate the Xbox's hardware, which was a mistake to say aloud (even though I still believe it). Ah well, too late now.

It depends on your definition of hardcore, doesn't it?

How do you define it?
A guy who plays Pokemon fourteen hours a day is pretty fucking hardcore, even if he never opens up his machine.
A guy who spends five grand a year on PC hardware for his games is a hardcore gamer too, even if he doesn't play consoles at all.
Ditto the EQ2 freaks, or the Starcraft pros, or the people who pour a hundred bucks a fortnight into the DDR machines.
To suggest that "hardcore" likes Xbox is, I believe, to show an absurdly narrow understanding of the word. No offense intended.


Back on topic: I sit fairly firmly on the PS2 side of the fence, but this generation, Sony's really fucking it up. Despite being almost entirely uninterested in the Xbox, and playing my PS2 daily, the Xbox2 has got me intrigued, and the PS3 is looking like an overpriced jack-of-all-wanks.

[mister_slim]

With regards to exclusives though, I'm kind of left confused about what ones you're refering to. The only games that the PS2 has I can't get elsewhere is Gran Turismo and the Final Fantasy games...everything else is (if not at launch) ported to the Xbox, with superior graphics/extras.
C'mon man, don't be self centered. How many Nippon Ichi/Atlus games does the Xbox have? Where's Ico? How about Harmonix style games? Or a good futuristic racer?

[Chris_D]

I got to admit the PS2 game library does rule all (despite that I think my number of xbox games only trails my ps2 games by a couple). Just saying the PS2 has Final Fantasy doesn't cut it. There are literally 10s of rpgs (traditional, strategy, action whatever) that don't have a chance in hell of ever being released on the box. Suikoden, Star Ocean, Wild Arms, Breath of Fire, Tales, Shadow Hearts, ... For me this is probably the main reason to own a PS2.

The other thing is that the Xbox is just a second class citizen when it comes to ports of some popular franchises. Here I'm talking about the delay between the Ps2 and xbox versions. There's GTAs, Dynasty Warriors, MGS, probably others. I find it really difficult to wait 6-12 months (often there isn't even a date for the xbox release when the ps2 one first arrives in stores) if I know that I want to play the game and that the differences will most likely be cosmetic (not gameplay). Of course if they're both on the shelf from day one I will buy xbox (or gc) everytime over the ps2 version.