The SimExchange November NPD Preview Report

[bapenguin]

The SimExchange has released their November NPD Preview Report (http://www.thesimexchange.com/research-report.php?id=11). The report covers the busiest month of the year in terms of game and system purchases. Remember, this report is estimates based on a prediction market, not the actual numbers sold.

It comes as no surprise that the Wii leads the pack with over 1 million units sold with the Xbox 360 close behind with over 720,000 units. The PS3 makes a respectible showing with just over 400,000 sold, thanks in large part to the 40 GB model.

Quite a few top titles are covered, but the one that stands out to me is Unreal Tournament 3 for the PC. According to the report it is expected to only sell around 78,000 copies. Also on the PC side you have Crysis with only 66,000 copies sold.

The full report can be preview here (http://www.thesimexchange.com/research-report.php?id=11). The NPD numbers will be released later this week, this report is based on the prediction market that is The Sim Exchange.

One final note, anyone can sign up and participate on The Sim Exchange, and in fact we have an Evil Avatar league (http://www.thesimexchange.com/rankings-league.php?community=evilavatar&sort=networth) going. So head on over there (http://www.thesimexchange.com) and sign up. Then go to your profile and put your EvAv userid in the Evil Avatar ID field.

[oldjadedgamer]

Looks like Sony was right, the 360 didn't outsell the PS3 2:1 according to the SimExchange.

[The-Builder]

A real shame that UT3 gets overlooked. Just means we are much less likely to see any good mods for the game.

Player numbers now seem be only a few more then what was playing ut2004 a few months ago.

[Deadend]

A real shame that UT3 gets overlooked. Just means we are much less likely to see any good mods for the game.

Player numbers now seem be only a few more then what was playing ut2004 a few months ago.

not so much overlooked as most people can't run the game.

[Zanzibar]

Looks like Sony was right, the 360 didn't outsell the PS3 2:1 according to the SimExchange.

It's a helluva lot closer to 2:1 than Sony tried to make it seem. That's like 1.75:1.

[sprankton]

If this is true then good for Sony, even though they got outsold almost 2:1 with the 360 and close to 3:1 with the Wii.

[oldjadedgamer]

It's a helluva lot closer to 2:1 than Sony tried to make it seem. That's like 1.75:1.

I was being a smart ass. After all, it's Monday morning. Gotta do something to wake myself up.

[bapenguin]

Looks like Sony was right, the 360 didn't outsell the PS3 2:1 according to the SimExchange.

Yeah. The claim was only for one week though, not the whole month. We'll never know the truth. :)

[Zander]

not so much overlooked as most people can't run the game.

Exactly the reason I have zero interest in it.

[Zanzibar]

I was being a smart ass. After all, it's Monday morning. Gotta do something to wake myself up.

Sorry, my sarcasm detector has been out-of-order lately.

[Gorvi]

Is there an over/under on how many posts it's going to be before we have a flame war in this thread because some people will mistake these numbers for fact? ;)

[DaXIthR]

What the hell? This, from the report:

Continuing the trend over the last 6 months, the Wii is expected top the console charts with 1,060,000 units according to the trading on the prediction market. The Xbox 360, a close second, is forecast to sell 728,000 units, while at a distant third, again, is the PS3 at 410,000 units.

Wii outsells 360 by 332K. That's a close second?
360 outsells PS3 by 318K. That's a distant third?

By what metric? And why is EvAv fellating simExchange all of a sudden?

[Khash]

There are 66,000 computers that can run Crysis?

[Vandenh]

UT3 is a big meh.. not surprised PC gamers are going for TF2 and CoD4 for their online fix.

[Syrinx]

What the hell? This, from the report:



Wii outsells 360 by 332K. That's a close second?
360 outsells PS3 by 318K. That's a distant third?

By what metric? And why is EvAv fellating simExchange all of a sudden?

600,000 behind the Wii makes it a distant third.

[oldjadedgamer]

Syrinx posted what I did at the same time but his post appeared first so he can have the glory.

[Vandenh]

360 outsells PS3 by 318K. That's a distant third?
Yes compared to the Wii.

Oops :)

Glory handed up to Syrinx.

/hands over glory

[Tyrant]

I'm surprised UT3 sold as many copies as it did, since I've been hearing that based on the All Seeing Eye and some other server browsing software, there are fewer players out there than UT1 and 2k4 at the moment.

[51|RandoM]

A real shame that UT3 gets overlooked.
It is overlooked, and for good reason. The days when a basic FPS can survive are over. The shift to class-based shooters is in full swing and anybody sticking to old school gameplay is going to get left behind.
not so much overlooked as most people can't run the game.
I've seen that said a couple times. I thought Unreal scaled fairly well on PC.

[51|RandoM]

If this is true then good for Sony, even though they got outsold almost 2:1 with the 360 and close to 3:1 with the Wii.

Sales are looking pretty good to me for their current pricing and library. I think this is the beginning of the big ps2 switch. I'm really interested in Europe's numbers for December.

[ECM]

It comes as no surprise that the Wii leads the pack with over 1 million units sold with the Xbox 360 close behind with over 720,000 units.

I know I'll get hell for this, but can something that sold 25-30% less units be "close" behind?

Edit: nvm, someone essentially beat me to it.

[bapenguin]

It is overlooked, and for good reason. The days when a basic FPS can survive are over. The shift to class-based shooters is in full swing and anybody sticking to old school gameplay is going to get left behind.

What's your excuse for Crysis?

[ECM]

What's your excuse for Crysis?

Gonna go with: nobody can run it (at least to the level a lot of us are used to running PC games at.)

[Gott]

People...this is one analysts opinion. This by no means is what the NPD is going to look like.

We can debate this all we want, but it isn't reality.

[Gorvi]

People...this is one analysts opinion. This by no means is what the NPD is going to look like.

We can debate this all we want, but it isn't reality.
Where do you get off bringing logic and reasoning into a thread about console sales numbers? Hypothetical ones, at that! Begone!


:p


And just to nitpick, it's not one analyst, but a collection of fanboys making these predictions. ;)

[bapenguin]

And just to nitpick, it's not one analyst, but a collection of fanboys making these predictions. ;)

That was off by less that .5% last month. This thing has been incredibly accurate, which is why we help participate. :)

[GAThrawn]

I know I'll get hell for this, but can something that sold 25-30% less units be "close" behind?

Edit: nvm, someone essentially beat me to it.

My point exactly. Who can argue that there isn't an obvious bias.

[Atepsflame]

A real shame that UT3 gets overlooked. Just means we are much less likely to see any good mods for the game.

Player numbers now seem be only a few more then what was playing ut2004 a few months ago.

I WAS interested in it until I played the demo, then my interest wained quite a bit. For a game that didn't even really look that fantastic (washed out colors, grimey, bland textures? Weeeeeak) and still bitch slapped my PC anyway, it didn't even play that well. What I played was much less fun then what I had with UT2k4. Maybe once if comes down in price and I have a rig that can run it a little better. This holiday all the lovin' my PC is getting is gonna be Bioshock and Orange Box related.

[Gorvi]

That was off by less that .5% last month. This thing has been incredibly accurate, which is why we help participate. :)
Nah, I know, they seem to do a pretty good job. Still, taking the numbers as fact is akin to those of us here doing the same thing with our own guesses. An educated guess is still only a guess. ;)

[anakin876]

And just to nitpick, it's not one analyst, but a collection of fanboys making these predictions. ;)

A collection of fanboys bidding on these games and systems via a stock market that uses fictionalized money to represent things. I've noticed the things I have invested in taking a huge nosedive in the last few days - it almost seems like people are recognizing that things were bid up to high values - and that those high values will not be returned on the day the NPD numbers come out. It also just occured to me that I am not sure how the monthly payout works - if you receive the vaule assessed by the NPD, or if you receive the value assessed (within the exchange) at the moment the NPD results are known. This would affect people
s buying and selling behaviors.

[oldjadedgamer]

Nah, I know, they seem to do a pretty good job. Still, taking the numbers as fact is akin to those of us here doing the same thing with our own guesses. An educated guess is still only a guess. ;)

VGChartz makes up numbers but no one seems to have a problem with using them here... in fact, Gorvi I've seen you use VGChartz numbers as fact in some of your posts.

[jamaicanrage]

Has nintendo solved their manufacturing problem yet?

[Tabasco]

Has nintendo solved their manufacturing problem yet?

My virtual money is resting on, "Hell no."

[galactic empire]

It is overlooked, and for good reason. The days when a basic FPS can survive are over. The shift to class-based shooters is in full swing and anybody sticking to old school gameplay is going to get left behind.

I've seen that said a couple times. I thought Unreal scaled fairly well on PC.*rubs temples, sighs* I just got in touch with Bungie and Epic and told them the news. They are currently recalling over 6 000 000 copies of thier games and incorperating classes into their shooters in an attempt not to get left behind.

[Purple Santa]

Why so little love to Crysis? I'm not a pc gamer so i'm clueless. But I know Crysis was talked about highly and hyped.

[Deadend]

Why so little love to Crysis? I'm not a pc gamer so i'm clueless. But I know Crysis was talked about highly and hyped.

Because it looks like, and runs like ass on almost every computer. Plus it's a PC game that is heavily single player, so it's pirated to hell.

[OOqp]

At least all gamers can enjoy COD4 :) (Well except for the Wii, but then again it's not a mini-game or mario so they don't care)

[zorper]

The UT3 stuff, if true, bumms me out. I remember when I upgraded just to max out UT(1).

I got fed up with the PC upgrade game and bought an xbox a long time ago, and I really haven't bought any PC games since then. So I guess I contributed to the low sales numbers. I hope UT3 still makes it over to my 360.

[Ebon Deth]

So let me get this straight:

The PS3 had a pricedrop (second in less than a year). It had it's two biggest games of the year released. It gave away FIFTEEN blu-ray discs with the system. It ratcheted up (no pun intended) it's ad campaign. And it only sells 400,000?

Whoa, Sony is in deep doo-doo.

[Zecon]

So let me get this straight:

The PS3 had a pricedrop (second in less than a year). It had it's two biggest games of the year released. It gave away FIFTEEN blu-ray discs with the system. It ratcheted up (no pun intended) it's ad campaign. And it only sells 400,000?

Whoa, Sony is in deep doo-doo.

Yes and no...
As far as living up to the hype and expectaions, its a miserable failure, but as a trojan horse for bluray, it's doing pretty well.

[51|RandoM]

What's your excuse for Crysis?

Crysis is a singleplayer campaign, first and foremost, little or no multiplayer appeal and has system requirements that are staggering.

UT3's singleplayer is a joke with bots.

The market is saturated at this point. I've got ET:QW, played it once or twice and moved on. We're jaded, lol, jaded, and after getting the momentary breath of fresh air that is TF2 everything other than TF2 and perhaps CoD4 is looking like a waste of space on the hard drive.

[Hellstorm]

What's your excuse for Crysis?

Outside of MMOs PC gaming is dead???

[gzsfrk]

That and "Sims", which still sells respectably well, although it's certainly long in the tooth at this point. WoW has killed the PC gaming market. (Or sustained it? Guess it depends on what you assume would have happened if it had never been released.) So yeah, you're pretty much right.

Until Spore comes out, at least. I think there's a good chance it could be the new "Sims" and spark a healthy return to PC gaming. But ONLY if it's mostly PC exclusive. (I know there's been talk of a Wii port, but I imagine it would be pretty gimped compared to the PC release.)

[RMan]

Although I understand the argument for the WoW hurting the PC games industry, I would say it's sustaining it, or having no effect on it. To say that WoW killed the PC gaming market assumes that the players would be playing some other PC game if they weren’t playing WoW, and I just don’t buy that. WoW pulling enough sales from Crysis to kill it, yea, that just doesn’t seem likely to me. In short, just because tons of people are playing WoW doesn’t mean they were ‘PC gamers’ that must have been culled from the other popular PC game consumer bases.

I still say the thing that hardcore gamers talk so much about is what kills a game like Crysis, it’s so high end that few can play effectively, and the ‘hardcore graphics shooter market’ is just not that big. Many shooter fans fed up with the upgrades and constant fiddling with drivers moved to the 360, pretty much following the games, I’m quite sure that had more to do with ‘killing the PC industry’. Still, I’m sure stuff like the Orange Box does fine, and I’m sure Star Craft 2 and such will do nicely, appealing and accessible games seem to fare well on the PC.

[ECM]

Although I understand the argument for the WoW hurting the PC games industry, I would say it's sustaining it, or having no effect on it. To say that WoW killed the PC gaming market assumes that the players would be playing some other PC game if they weren’t playing WoW, and I just don’t buy that. WoW pulling enough sales from Crysis to kill it, yea, that just doesn’t seem likely to me. In short, just because tons of people are playing WoW doesn’t mean they were ‘PC gamers’ that must have been culled from the other popular PC game consumer bases.


I'd agree with this. Though it's anecdotal, I know a lot of WoW players that play more console games than other PC games (stuff like Final Fantasy and Halo come up a lot more than Crysis and Quake, for example and if other PC games do come up, it's chatter about other MMOs that might, someday, be better than WoW.) Also, the average WoW player simply doesn't have the hardware to run games like UT3 and, especially, Crysis at anything approaching acceptable levels.

[Jesse_Divnich]

600,000 behind the Wii makes it a distant third.

Thanks for the comment. I guess in those terms, you are right. A distant third to #1 is what we were referring too. BUT I see the confusion on the matter. Thanks for pointing it out.

Jesse Divnich
Analyst
The Simexchange

[Jesse_Divnich]

My point exactly. Who can argue that there isn't an obvious bias.

There is no bias, but I do see your point on this. Probably not the best choice of words? hah.

Also, our user base is a good mix people, this is why our Hardware projections each month are so accurate. I think last month we were only off .57% of total hardware? Not too shabby

[Jesse_Divnich]

People...this is one analysts opinion. This by no means is what the NPD is going to look like.

We can debate this all we want, but it isn't reality.

All the figures are provided by our prediction market. My opinion doesn't matter one bit. A prediction market removes all the bias in a projection.

The point of The simExchange is for users to earn more money (DKP). It doesn't matter what games/systems they are bias towards. If the PS3 was only predicting to sell 100 units in December, it doesn't matter how much someone hates the PS3, they are going to buy up that stock (driving the projection up).

The part about the PS3 not making any significant gain until mid 08 is my opinion but that's a no brainer.

[trip1eX]

Yeah I bought the Orange Box because I knew it would run halfway decent on my aging machine. I didn't buy CRysis because much of the hype is the incredible graphics. Ideally I even want to go DX10 with it, but that requires another $100+ for Vista on top of an expensive vid card. And even then the vid cards out today won't run it as well as it can run. So there's not much hurry to get the game today.

The mp doesn't sound bad, but it also doesn't sound like it will garner a big audience.

I actually just got into WoW and it's a great game even though it's 3 yrs old. IT's extremely polished and always gets updated. The Xpac was released early this year of course too. The graphics remain good looking because of the art style and the fact that they didn't go for 'photorealism.'

WoW just shows there's more to pc gaming than cutting edge photo-realistic graphics and that 'more' sells and sells well.

[Jesse_Divnich]

A collection of fanboys bidding on these games and systems via a stock market that uses fictionalized money to represent things. I've noticed the things I have invested in taking a huge nosedive in the last few days - it almost seems like people are recognizing that things were bid up to high values - and that those high values will not be returned on the day the NPD numbers come out. It also just occured to me that I am not sure how the monthly payout works - if you receive the vaule assessed by the NPD, or if you receive the value assessed (within the exchange) at the moment the NPD results are known. This would affect people
s buying and selling behaviors.

Woo, a lot of typing tonight! But I do appreciate all the feedback.

The NPD Futures are settled to the actual NPD figures. If Rock Band is at 150k now and the real results are 200k then we set the stock at 200k right away and pay that amount out to those that own it. You don't have to do anything on your end.

[TheFlyingOrc]

Nah, I know, they seem to do a pretty good job. Still, taking the numbers as fact is akin to those of us here doing the same thing with our own guesses. An educated guess is still only a guess. ;)

And NPD aims for 5%. These numbers are, most likely, just as accurate as NPD.

And educated guess is pretty much only a guess, but thousands of guesses are thousands of guesses.

[Jesse_Divnich]

And NPD aims for 5%. These numbers are, most likely, just as accurate as NPD.

And educated guess is pretty much only a guess, but thousands of guesses are thousands of guesses.

You are right and I would hope that thousands of guesses are accurate. The financial health of any country rests mostly on their stock markets; which, is just a bunch of people taking a guess on either their stocks going higher or lower. The simExchange rests on the same principles. Thanks :)

[TheFlyingOrc]

You are right and I would hope that thousands of guesses are accurate. The financial health of any country rests mostly on their stock markets; which, is just a bunch of people taking a guess on either their stocks going higher or lower. The simExchange rests on the same principles. Thanks :)
No problem. Become a regular poster ;)

[DarkDaY]

Is there an over/under on how many posts it's going to be before we have a flame war in this thread because some people will mistake these numbers for fact? ;)

its fact for all those that these numbers work in their favor.

Still sounds reasonable, they all sold well in relative terms to where they are at.

Now give me attachment rates, that will paint a much much different story.
or overall rev for each, games, peripherals, yada yada

[Jesse_Divnich]

its fact for all those that these numbers work in their favor.

Still sounds reasonable, they all sold well in relative terms to where they are at.

Now give me attachment rates, that will paint a much much different story.
or overall rev for each, games, peripherals, yada yada

Yep, I agree.

I hope that when the real numbers come out that we can have just as good of a discussions (without getting into a flame war!). But the fact still remains, we are not trying to push our numbers off as 100% accurate, what we are trying to do is to educate the industry on what we do and how prediction markets work.

In this instance, we turned a prediction market into a very fun game that anyone can participate in. If you think one of our numbers is inaccurate, sign up, and buy/short sell that puppy. :)