TheSimExchange - Turning Gamers into Analysts

[bapenguin]

If there's one thing that always gets us gamers, it's when some "analyst" comes along and tells us some BS prediction regarding the latest and greatest in video games sales and trends. Where does HE get off on getting paid for making predictions on our beloved hobby? Well now there's a chance for us to get paid, virtually anyway.

The SimExchange (http://www.thesimexchange.com) is a virtual prediction market for everything regarding video games. Whether it's a game's rating or sales number, stocks can be bought into each to help forecast exactly what a game is going to do in terms of sales and scores. By giving power to the people, rather than just one analyst The SimExchange (http://www.thesimexchange.com) can yield a better forecast of sales. Players of the market are given virtual money to trade with. Payouts come the day the NPD group releases their numbers.

So that's all great and good, but how do we know it works? Over the past 5 months the SimExchange was more accurate than those "other analysts" 75% of the time. Not only is it accurate but it's a game itself to play and have fun with. And I think that's something gamers can agree on.

We'll be getting a copy of this months SimExchange report to post here before the NPD numbers go live, and then we can see first hand just how accurate this can be.

So what do you guys think? You think this could work?

[bapenguin]

A little FAQ -

How does the simExchange forecasts work?

The simExchange currently offers two types of forecasts: (1) global lifetime sales for a SKU and (2) US monthly sales for a SKU and all software according to the NPD Group. Stocks are used to forecast the former while futures contracts are used to forecast the latter. The prices of these contracts are denominated in a virtual currency called “DKP.” 1 DKP corresponds to 10,000 copies sold. For example, if a game has a stock price of 100 DKP, that means the market is forecasting the game will sell 1 million copies. Stocks trade until they settle at a price that is agreeable to both buyers and sellers for an extended period of time, which can take months after a game’s release. The reason for this is that there is currently no way to judge how many copies a game has sold worldwide to consumers. Futures contracts trade until the night before the NPD Group releases its monthly data. Then they expire and pay out to their holders.

Why are prediction markets better means of forecasting?

Prediction markets require participants to “put their money where their mouth is,” even if it is virtual money. This means people will only express opinions if they feel strongly about them. If they are more confident about their information, they can impact the forecast by a greater degree by buying or short selling more stock. Over time, a prediction market becomes more accurate as accurate predictors are rewarded with more funds to make predictions, while bad predictors lose funds and can make fewer predictions.

[Tabasco]

This is right up my alley. Major thanks for bringing this to our attention. :D

[bapenguin]

This is right up my alley. Major thanks for bringing this to our attention. :D

I've been buying stuff all morning on it, it's very cool and strangely addicting.

[Wraith]

I wonder how this works with niche/unique titles that review well but sell poorly? Would you buy the next Psychonauts because you think it'll be a good game that deserves to sell well, or avoid it, because it may be too niche to actually sell well?

[KingGorilla]

You imply that game analysts are unique in their lack of use, knowledge, or intelligence.

[sprankton]

1400 shares of Pirates of the Burning Sea later and I am having a good time.

[bapenguin]

I wonder how this works with niche/unique titles that review well but sell poorly? Would you buy the next Psychonauts because you think it'll be a good game that deserves to sell well, or avoid it, because it may be too niche to actually sell well?

They seperate scores and sales.

Like you can buy into a metacritic rating for a game AND/OR you can buy into a game selling 1 million copies. They are separate transactions.

[bapenguin]

You imply that game analysts are unique in their lack of use, knowledge, or intelligence.

I merely am echoing what the community says everytime an analysts commentary is posted. If that's what it implies, than that's what it implies.

[bKangy]

Shame there's not really enough titles being tracked.

[Itchyeyes]

Prediction markets are absolutely fascinating things, to me at least. While I'm usually pretty tight with my money, I could definitely see myself putting a little aside to play with this, just to see how the mechanisms work. By the way, does anyone know when the September NPD numbers come out?

[sprankton]

Prediction markets are absolutely fascinating things, to me at least. While I'm usually pretty tight with my money, I could definitely see myself putting a little aside to play with this, just to see how the mechanisms work. By the way, does anyone know when the September NPD numbers come out?

Should be today or maybe tomorrow. Not sure, thought it was around the 16-18th of the month.

[Spigot]

Ah, I'm a sucker for these virtual exchanges. If only I could figure out how to play them properly so I could feel confident to buy real shares :)

[lockwoodx]

There used to be a very popular BBS game along these lines. Now they need to remake L.O.R.D. and I will be complete.

[bapenguin]

Prediction markets are absolutely fascinating things, to me at least. While I'm usually pretty tight with my money, I could definitely see myself putting a little aside to play with this, just to see how the mechanisms work. By the way, does anyone know when the September NPD numbers come out?

It's totally free to play right now.

[karak]

I have been doing this since it was made public. Very fun and in a strange way...its just like achievements in its grind. I am doing very well.

[Itchyeyes]

It's totally free to play right now.
Hmm, that actually disappoints me a little. Part of what makes prediction markets work is the risk/reward aspect of putting your money where your mouth is. I can't actually access the site right now since I'm at work, but I'll definitely be checking it out when I get at home.

[Tabasco]

Ah, I'm a sucker for these virtual exchanges. If only I could figure out how to play them properly so I could feel confident to buy real shares :)

You should actually. I did my first buying of real stock a year and a half ago, and it is currently making $1,700 profit. You just have to be really careful and do a lot of research.

[Spigot]

You should actually. I did my first buying of real stock a year and a half ago, and it is currently making $1,700 profit. You just have to be really careful and do a lot of research.Yeah, that's the problem. I'm too impulsive/easily bored to do something like the stock market properly. If I did make a killing, I'd end up going nuts and blowing it on crap. Though given the fact that I'd likely just pick companies with funny names or something along those lines, I'd probably just go broke.

[Itchyeyes]

Yeah, that's the problem. I'm too impulsive/easily bored to do something like the stock market properly. If I did make a killing, I'd end up going nuts and blowing it on crap. Though given the fact that I'd likely just pick companies with funny names or something along those lines, I'd probably just go broke.
You don't have to play the day trading game to make money in the stock market, in fact that's probably the worst way to make money in the market. Just buy some index funds and hold them long term.

[Spigot]

You don't have to play the day trading game to make money in the stock market, in fact that's probably the worst way to make money in the market. Just buy some index funds and hold them long term.But where's the fun/danger in that?!

[Itchyeyes]

But where's the fun/danger in that?!
Who in their right mind wants a dangerous investment strategy?

[MJBuddy]

I'm taking a course in the financial science behind these concepts next semester.


I'm totally an economic trends whore.

[Digital Outlaw]

Thanks Bap, Im officially addicted...

[Spigot]

Who in their right mind wants a dangerous investment strategy?Not me, but I know I'd probably do something stupid if I did... hence my reservations for jumping in.

[Jesse2050]

Thanks for the post bapenguin!

We appreciate the support from the Evil Avatar Community as our own website is driven by gaming fans like the ones found here.

Our NPD Preview Report for September is at The simExchange NPD Preview Report (http://www.thesimexchange.com/research.php?r=5330.)

Here are the key points from the report.
• Nintendo Wii to remain the number one selling home console despite Halo 3
• PS3 exclusive titles do not move PS3 hardware units
• PSP Lite sales are growing the portables market, not cannibalizing DS sales
• PS3 price cut or new model is still expected by the prediction market
• Halo 3 sales not affected by PS3 hardware news or PS3 exclusives
• The Legend of Zelda: Phantom Hourglass to sell nearly 1 million copies in two months in a market where casual gamers have diversified interests

We always appreciate feedback on our reports. Please keep in mind; as much as my name is attached to these reports, it is users like you that determine our figures. I just translate the figures into words.
We look forward to working with Evil Avatar in the future and we will be delivering our NPD Review Report Thursday/Friday. You can be assured that Evil Avatar will be the FIRST forum community to see our full report before we pass it to the other forum communities.

Thanks!!!
Jesse Divnich
Analyst
The simExchange

[Spigot]

Sounds great, Jesse. This looks rather interesting.

[Digital Outlaw]

You know, EvAv can have a league to see who fares better in trading.....

[karak]

You know, EvAv can have a league to see who fares better in trading.....

Better hurry I been doing it for awhile;)

[Thumper]

Is there another thread for this yet?

Our league just went live! And guess what?

I'M WINNING!!!