Hd-DVD/Bluray War Ends in 18 Months?

[Kamalot]

Gizmodo is reporting on changes in the HD-DVD / Bluray format war. A minty-fresh research report from Forrester Research indicates that Bluray could be overtaken by HD-DVD if they continue on their strategy (http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/blu_ray/war-ends-in-18-months-possibly-with-hd-dvd-upset-victory-over-blu+ray-303318.php) of keeping the player high-priced. The report states that Bluray needs to keep any more studios from defecting, and introduce a $250 player by this holiday season to remain viable and deflect HD-DVD's growing momentum.

What was once an easy call—Blu-ray by Christmas 2007—has gotten murkier, and in the most recent rounds, HD DVD has been bitchslapping Blu-ray up and down the ring.

"Weakened by these developments, Blu-ray needs to offer a viable hardware model at the $250 price point by Christmas 2007. The Blu-ray camp must also stave off further studio defections, and employ more aggressive promotional tactics to counter HD DVD's recent momentum."
Any chance we'll actually see a $250 Bluray player this holiday season?

[TheFlyingOrc]

Well, the only thing BluRay has going for it is the PS3, really.

[karak]

Any chance we'll actually see a $250 Bluray player this holiday season?

That would be a HUGE drop in price however to win the war someone might do it. I know that neither is big in my part of the area. Except HDDVD sells MUCH better due to cost of disks.

[Vandenh]

What was once an easy call—Blu-ray by Christmas 2007

There never really was a serious case for that. Just some Bluray fans (yes and that includes some companies) claiming it was all over in the hope that HD-DVD would go away.

[agentgray]

No, but I bet you see one with a 40GB hard drive for $399. ;)

[sprankton]

I hope they both lose.

[Gorvi]

Are there any numbers to back up this "bitchslapping"?

[PathMaster]

Saw this over on Ars. If those indeed take that long to settle, then the 700mhz band will have switched over at that point. If the auction does go well, then we might have some wireless internet options that *might* make digital distribution more then just possible.

[LostToys]

Studios are not "defecting" because of the price of the players, they are defecting because the feature suite for Blu-Ray is way behind HD DVD, particularly iHD. Paramount and Dreamworks went to HD DVD because they wanted the additional interactive contents which iHD offers (Picture-in-Picture, re-sizable windows, independent window control, etc).

[albrnick]

Humm.. Weird, the latest data still shows Blu Ray at a 60% sales for the week. Which while down from 66% hardly seems like being beat recently? Or maybe they are talking about the recent HD-DVD only changes?

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom092307/index.php

Peace,

[Dukefrukem]

*yawn* @ future predictions that are > 1 month

[Yeti2005]

Studios are not "defecting" because of the price of the players, they are defecting because the feature suite for Blu-Ray is way behind HD DVD, particularly iHD. Paramount and Dreamworks went to HD DVD because they wanted the additional interactive contents which iHD offers (Picture-in-Picture, re-sizable windows, independent window control, etc).

Actually Paramount most likely defected because they were paid. Before you get all upset, you have to realize Disney, Fox and the other Blu-ray studios are in one way or another paid by the BDA so it's not one sided.

I do agree that HD-DVD actually has standards. Blu-ray just now has mandated a new standard that all br players must use after Oct 31.

[oldjadedgamer]

How many times now has Sony declared the format war over they they as winners? And I agree, the PS3 is the only thing keeping Blu-Ray a float.

[gzsfrk]

I don't know about any lower-cost Blu-ray players, but I'm all but certain that we're going to see a sub-$200 stand-alone HD-DVD player on Black Friday this year. If they put one out there at $179 or less (very possible, as you can buy them today for less than $250), then I think it would make for a VERY attractive and relatively affordable Christmas gift. Having a 360 myself, I'd still probably opt for the 360 add-on drive with a bunch of free Hi-def movies, but for anyone who's just wanting some hardware to help justify the $1200 they dropped on their shiny new 47" Plasma, I think that $180 or lower would be a definite sweet spot for mass market appeal.

[Gorvi]

How many times now has Sony declared the format war over they they as winners? And I agree, the PS3 is the only thing keeping Blu-Ray a float.
So it's in trouble then? Or are you saying it's what's keeping the tide of things in Blu-Ray's favor with that 2:1 disc sales margin.

[GunJ]

So let's presume that HD-DVD wins, or dominates in the format wars in the upcoming months.

What would it mean for the PS3 ?

And also - did we get any new news about the European Comission's "investigation" of studios choice of Bluray instead of HDDVDs ? ( lack of clear motives behind the pick of one format vs. the other and stuff )

Anyone ?

[oldjadedgamer]

So it's in trouble then? Or are you saying it's what's keeping the tide of things in Blu-Ray's favor with that 2:1 disc sales margin.

Considering the miserable sales of the stand alone Blu-Ray players... yes it's the only thing pushing it ahead by any margin.

Got a link btw, from a non Sony related source? I would love to see the sales data of real movies... movies that don't fall into the PS3's 18-30 year old male category.

To use a blanket statement then Sleepless in Seattle should sell at a 2:1 margin on Blu-Ray as well. Anyone have a link to numbers comparing movies that came out on both platforms... that *isn't* 300?

[Johan]

Please don't let it end. Please. Keep up the fight!

[Telefrog]

Got a link btw, from a non Sony related source? I would love to see the sales data of real movies... movies that don't fall into the PS3's 18-30 year old male category.

What does this even mean?

Since Blu-ray is a wholly Sony product, the only accurate source we can ever get would be from Sony. Only they would have 100% of the data. Every other source would be conjecture.

As for the 18-30 statement, I don't even know what your point is there. Are you saying 18-30 year old males don't watch "real" movies?! How do you define "real" movies? Sorry to inform you, but the 18-30 year old male is the #1 courted demographic of the most of the movie studios.

[Infinity]

Even though I have a PS3, this is another reason not to buy any high definition movies. The only reason I'd buy a movie would be for my kids to watch a zillion times, and really, they don't need anything more than a regular DVD.

Who needs to buy a movie? Netflix for the win!

[DangerousDaze]

I thought we'd all pretty much agreed that analysts were full of shit? Or maybe that's only when they say something positive about Sony?

[LostToys]

Actually Paramount most likely defected because they were paid.

They could have been paid off, yes. But the likely scenario, which is mirrored by Warner Brothers, is that BD technology is behind HDD technology in terms of user interaction. The BD Association also keeps changing the design of the BD specifications, making current generation players obsolete as they add, enhance, or remove specifications. HDD on the other hand is almost universally backwards compatible, with only a few changes in the specifications requiring new hardware.

For Paramount the change came about due to the authoring of Transformers. Michael Bay was furious that Transformers was not going to be released on both formats, then rescinded his quote the following day along the lines that Paramount was considering the customer in this move. From my conversations with people who master DVD, BD, and HDD media, many studios have to make two completely different versions of their films for each HD format. Because BD lacks many of the overlay functionalitys of HDD, you have to encode the movie twice (one with overlays; one without) on the BD release. This consume space and increases mastering time.

[DangerousDaze]

Oh, and Gartner predicted the doom of HD-DVD way back in 2005. Analysts are little more than paid fortune tellers at the best of times. ;)

[LostToys]

Got a link btw, from a non Sony related source? I would love to see the sales data of real movies...

You do realize that someone already linked to Home Media Magazine (http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom092307/index.php) which lists the Nielsen VideoScan data.

Or you can also look at the plastic numbers which are culled from Amazon.com Sale Rankings (http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/#1).

[Gorvi]

Considering the miserable sales of the stand alone Blu-Ray players... yes it's the only thing pushing it ahead by any margin.

Got a link btw, from a non Sony related source? I would love to see the sales data of real movies... movies that don't fall into the PS3's 18-30 year old male category.

To use a blanket statement then Sleepless in Seattle should sell at a 2:1 margin on Blu-Ray as well. Anyone have a link to numbers comparing movies that came out on both platforms... that *isn't* 300?
There was this thread (http://www.evilavatar.com/forums/showthread.php?t=28760) from a while back that showed a pretty consistent 2:1 sales ratio. Now that changed to 3:2 some months, but it was mostly 2:1.

[drakkarim]

Any chance we'll actually see a $250 Bluray player this holiday season?

better question is; any chance anyone (i.e. the masses) want(s) to pay twice as much for the same movies no matter what format they're on?

[alexander|thegreatest]

I'm always amused when I see people arguing that "Blue-Ray will win because they just dropped the price!" or "HD-DVD will win because they just dropped the price!".

"Oh, I just dropped a couple thousand bucks on a HD-TV, but I'm going with HD-DVD because the Blue-Ray-player costs 50 bucks more!"

[MasterKwan]

I won't pay twice the cost for a BR/HD disk over DVD. You price the disks $2 more than a DVD and I don't care what the player costs, I'd buy in. As it is, for a casual movie watcher, I can't justify the cost of the disks. Player's a one time cost. High disk costs hit me ever time I buy.

[torrefaction]

better question is; any chance anyone (i.e. the masses) want(s) to pay twice as much for the same movies no matter what format they're on?

Disc prices will fall as scale increases and technology stabilizes. Right now they are trying to recap some of the investment in the spec early, as well as make up for the lack of a mass market.

Did everyone forget saying the same damn thing about DVD's?

*Edit*

Also, it's only new HD-DVD's that are highly priced. They drop fairly quickly.

[Schnoogs]

I hope they both lose.

Why? What difference is it to you?

[Schnoogs]

I won't pay twice the cost for a BR/HD disk over DVD. You price the disks $2 more than a DVD and I don't care what the player costs, I'd buy in. As it is, for a casual movie watcher, I can't justify the cost of the disks. Player's a one time cost. High disk costs hit me ever time I buy.

I still have yet to pay more than $20 for either BluRay or an HDDVD disc.

Knowing is half the battle.

[Maskatron]

I still think it's mostly software that's going to be driving the sales of both formats, in the short term at least. People are going to support whatever format has the most movies they want to see. In a year or two it will all be moot because hardware will be cheap enough that all you flag wavers will be supporting both formats anyway.

I won't pay twice the cost for a BR/HD disk over DVD. You price the disks $2 more than a DVD and I don't care what the player costs, I'd buy in. As it is, for a casual movie watcher, I can't justify the cost of the disks. Player's a one time cost. High disk costs hit me ever time I buy.

Netflix FTW.

[BlackPete]

I still have yet to pay more than $20 for either BluRay or an HDDVD disc.

Knowing is half the battle.

Go to Canada. You're looking at anywhere from $30 to $40 for a movie that isn't even that great.

This pretty much means that Planet Earth and Apocalypo (got it for free) are the only HD movies I own.

[Isamura]

I hope Sony fails. Making everything proprietary in virtually every product they release just to have complete control of the market when they succeed, should never be rewarded by the consumer. This will only hurt competition in the long run.

There is no way I would buy either one until there is a sure winner. I understand why people get so emotional over this debate, since I would be pissed off if I doled out a ton of money for one of these, only to lose the bet in the product wars (read laser disks).

I'm in no hurry to buy either until there is a certain future format decided, and I know there are many like me who feel this way.

[Jetherik]

I haven't bought, nor will I until the war is over if something new and better isn't out. Sad thing, some new technology was just developed and if I remember correctly, it holds 5x to what these hold. I just have to find the article to link it. Supposedly it will be ready for market in 2009.

[jadkins555]

I just want to see egg on Blockbuster's face when customers complain to them about not having HD-DVD in stores.

[DangerousDaze]

I hope Sony fails. Making everything proprietary in virtually every product they release just to have complete control of the market when they succeed, should never be rewarded by the consumer. This will only hurt competition in the long run.
Yeah, because Microsoft has a long and respected reputation for open standards and fair competition.

[Citizen Erased]

I just wish one of them 'wins' soon. I recently got a sweet 1080p TV and have been hankering for some hi-def content for it. I want to buy the HD-DVD add on for the 360, as it's pretty reasonably priced around here but the only problem is that there are no places where i can buy/rent discs. Out of the 2 most popular rental places around here, one carries a few blu-ray titles and the other carries no hd stuff whatsoever. Same with major retailers around here. In fact, the only place i have seen HD-DVDs to buy was the biggest department store in the city, which sadly burnt down (http://www.news.com.au/mercury/story/0,22884,22466848-421,00.html) over the weekend.

[Citizen Philip]

My meteorologist predicts no change on the frozen concentrated orange juice futures.

You owe me $1.

[Dracula-X]

I hope Sony fails. Making everything proprietary in virtually every product they release just to have complete control of the market when they succeed, should never be rewarded by the consumer. This will only hurt competition in the long run.
Blu-ray is no more proprietary than HDDVD, and was developed by Hitachi, LG, Panasonic, Pioneer, Philips, Samsung, Sharp, Sony, and Thomson. Hoping to see Sony alone fail is, shall we say, fanboyish? :rolleyes:

[KingGorilla]

better question is; any chance anyone (i.e. the masses) want(s) to pay twice as much for the same movies no matter what format they're on?

What the hell are you smoking? The masses have not BOUGHT movies in a long time, they rent. The question is which one they can get at their Blockbuster, Netflix, etc.

[cp#]

I don't know anyone with either player (talking non-PS3), so yeah I think the war will be over in 18 months with no winner.

[Loganrapp]

I hope they both lose.

Quoted for the truth. Amen, brother.

[Sloth]

where is the Dr Doom pic when you need it

[Johan]

where is the Dr Doom pic when you need it

http://image.orientaltrading.com/otcimg/25_3589,90.jpg

Horrible stand-in.

[absolut taco]

Except HDDVD sells MUCH better due to cost of disks.
HDDVD sells MUCH better because they cost more??? :confused:

Last I checked, HDDVD movies were $3 more than their BR counterparts.

[absolut taco]

Before you get all upset, you have to realize Disney, Fox and the other Blu-ray studios are in one way or another paid by the BDA so it's not one sided.

When the fuck is Disney actually gonna release anything on Blu-ray?

[Johan]

This CNet link (http://reviews.cnet.com/4520-6463_7-6462511-2.html?tag=nav) seems to indicate the average prices are the same for movies on either format, despite what one store or another might charge (shopping around is a good idea)...with the requisite differences between some titles due to features, etc..

[Gorvi]

When the fuck is Disney actually gonna release anything on Blu-ray?
Didn't they release Pirates of the Caribbean 1 & 2 earlier this year?

[Schnoogs]

When the fuck is Disney actually gonna release anything on Blu-ray?

TRON!!!

TRON!!

TRON!!

[Phread]

I'm still waiting for an affordable (<$300) player that plays both formats. Once the price of the movies drops, I'll consider switching over, but for now I can usually buy 2 movies on dvd for the price of 1 on hddvd/bluray...

[Isamura]

Blu-ray is no more proprietary than HDDVD, and was developed by Hitachi, LG, Panasonic, Pioneer, Philips, Samsung, Sharp, Sony, and Thomson. Hoping to see Sony alone fail is, shall we say, fanboyish? :rolleyes:

This all comes down to royalty fees, and all of these companies playing grabby-hands over the percentage cut. We now have 2 standards that use the same laser, but have a different film and reads at a different pitch. I never said I supported either one of them, in fact I specifically said I didn't.

Maybe I don't like Sony for other reasons? Like their digital flash memory and their over-the-top copyright protection they put on their CD's a couple years back, where you couldn't even rip a cd you had just bought on your PC without....a black marker? And now they are smack dab in the middle of this next-gen media standard (kinda like back in the VHS/Beta days). I can't think of one reason to like Sony, my mind is filled with hate!

(My condolences about your PS3)

[DeadlyDonkey]

I love how clueless people keep consistently thinking of Blu-Ray as a Sony product.

Newsflash: It isn't.

[Gott]

HDDVD sells MUCH better because they cost more??? :confused:

Last I checked, HDDVD movies were $3 more than their BR counterparts.

what movie are you comparing that is more on HDDVD than on BluRay?

I think me means that the cost of HDDVD disks to the manufactorer is cheaper.

[Gott]

I love how clueless people keep consistently thinking of Blu-Ray as a Sony product.

Newsflash: It isn't.

"Currently, Blu-ray Disc is exclusively supported by Sony Pictures Entertainment and MGM (20% of the stake owned by Sony)"

Quote taken from Wiki under "Blu-ray Disc"

Clueless?

[Gorvi]

"Currently, Blu-ray Disc is exclusively supported by Sony Pictures Entertainment and MGM (20% of the stake owned by Sony)"

Quote taken from Wiki under "Blu-ray Disc"

Clueless?
It's also exclusively supported by both Fox and Disney. Both, if I remember correctly, have something of an investment in BR tech. It's a common mistake to think that BR is a Sony only format. They're pushing it hard, yes, but they're only one of the backers. Of course, they're one of the biggest, if not the biggest.

[DangerousDaze]

"Currently, Blu-ray Disc is exclusively supported by Sony Pictures Entertainment and MGM (20% of the stake owned by Sony)"

Quote taken from Wiki under "Blu-ray Disc"

Clueless?

You certainly appear to be. Why not complete the rest of that quote you pulled? Also, while you're there, why not look up Blu-ray Disc Association (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blu-ray_Disc_Association)?

[Kamalot]

I just wish one of them 'wins' soon. I recently got a sweet 1080p TV and have been hankering for some hi-def content for it. I want to buy the HD-DVD add on for the 360, as it's pretty reasonably priced around here but the only problem is that there are no places where i can buy/rent discs. Out of the 2 most popular rental places around here, one carries a few blu-ray titles and the other carries no hd stuff whatsoever. Same with major retailers around here. In fact, the only place i have seen HD-DVDs to buy was the biggest department store in the city, which sadly burnt down (http://www.news.com.au/mercury/story/0,22884,22466848-421,00.html) over the weekend.
If you like, I have a code for a free month of Netflicks. I'd be happy to give it to you if you want to rent some HD-DVDs.

[Dracula-X]

This all comes down to royalty fees, and all of these companies playing grabby-hands over the percentage cut.
Welcome to business, Captain Obvious?

Maybe I don't like Sony for other reasons? Like their digital flash memory and their over-the-top copyright protection they put on their CD's a couple years back, where you couldn't even rip a cd you had just bought on your PC without....a black marker? And now they are smack dab in the middle of this next-gen media standard (kinda like back in the VHS/Beta days). I can't think of one reason to like Sony, my mind is filled with hate!
Yeah, this old soapbox wasn't obvious. :rolleyes:

(My condolences about your PS3)
And here's mine for that poor, poor fucking troll.

[Skyelan]

Yeah, you think that's impressive? My cats got in a fight that ended in three minutes.

It both took less time, and is slightly more relevant to the everday lives of the consumer masses.

[Isamura]

Welcome to business, Captain Obvious?


Yeah, this old soapbox wasn't obvious. :rolleyes:


And here's mine for that poor, poor fucking troll.

You have an abrasive way of agreeing with my comments. I can't tell if you are trying to debate me, or are just throwing peanuts from the crowd.

It's also exclusively supported by both Fox and Disney. Both, if I remember correctly, have something of an investment in BR tech. It's a common mistake to think that BR is a Sony only format. They're pushing it hard, yes, but they're only one of the backers. Of course, they're one of the biggest, if not the biggest.

BR is a Sony only product. There is a difference between an association of companies which support or invest in a product, and a company which developed the technology and wants said companies to use their technology. Sony gets a cut of every movie that comes to their format, these compaines are the ones giving them money.

[phantomhitman]

yay! I guess?

[absolut taco]

Didn't they release Pirates of the Caribbean 1 & 2 earlier this year?

Sorry, I meant something animated.

[DangerousDaze]

Sorry, I meant something animated.

Looks like there are some (http://www.blu-ray.com/movies/movies.php?genre=animation) in the works.