HD DVD for the Xbox 360? Format Wars indeed.

[Mrbunchypants]

Looks like MS is thinking about the next DVD format.

Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates announced yesterday that his company and electronics giant Toshiba are expanding their alliance, drawing the software maker further into the HD DVD and Blu-ray disc technology conflict

Link here. (http://www.technewsworld.com/story/GNhLA0VsY1MAK4/Xbox-360-May-Get-HD-DVD-Help-from-Toshiba.xhtml)

[bapenguin]

Microsoft has a win win situation....their WM9 codec or VC10 or whatever they are calling it is in both format's video standard (Blu-Ray and HD-DVD)....they'll get money either way whoever "wins"

[netcraazzy]

I wonder if anybody will win, it could also end up a stale-mate like the DVD+R/DVD-R format war.

[Heretic Machine]

I wonder if anybody will win, it could also end up a stale-mate like the DVD+R/DVD-R format war.

These two "format wars" are really two entirely different things, and comparing them doesn't work. DVD+R/DVD-R are formats for home users to burn, we're talking about formats that everyday people are expected to buy their movies on reguraly. But I've said it before, neither format will win as plain old DVD's still have the best value to the average consumer. HD-TV still isn't wide spread enough to dedicate an entire format shift over it.

[jpublic]

My question is, how would MS actually include HDDVD in the X360? An add-on or a complete hardware revision? If they did the latter, how would they handle the possibly huge installed base?

I ocnfess that this announcement actually instills concern in me, and a sudden desire to not pick up the X360. If MS had said that they're planning on putting HDDVD players in X360's from the start, that would be one thing, but the idea that I may have to buy *another* a year or so down the line kind of puts me off.

[Justin_McElroy]

I think people concern about HD DVD and Blu-Ray are seriously over-estimating the public's willingness to make a format shift. Perigon is dead on. If you asked the general populace why they made the VHS to DVD switch the reasons are probably something like "Special features," "Better Picture," and "No Rewinding." People simply aren't going to make the switch until it's made to be worthwhile.

[KNOTE]

If it's not in the first version, developers can't support it. So it really only matters for playback of consumer video.

[Zanzibar]

I wonder if they'd just do a trade-in for a HD-DVD upgrade. You can remove the HDD, remember, so all your saves would be intact. You turn in your old X360 sans cables/HDD/controllers etc, just the box itself, get the new one. MS then takes your old one, opens it up, upgrades to HD-DVD, and sends that one back to the store for the next customer.

I've been doing some thinking about this, since my launch-day Xbox is finally displaying the 'Your Disc may be dirty or damaged' DVD-drive error. MS gave me a return authorization; all I'll have to do is mail in my Xbox and they'll either repair it (yeah right) or send me a refurbished one. After filling up two memory cards with save games, suddenly the detachable HDD made a lot of sense.

[Meatgortex]

Blue Ray and HD-DVD are both going to be DOA. Consumers do not make shifts in formats for quality only. They make shifts in formats for significant features.

Record -> Cassette
Consumers made the shift because it was portable. At a loss of audio quality.

Cassette -> CD
Consumers made the shift because it gave them quick song selection, no rewinding, longer lifetime and shifted quality back to record levels, although some would claim not quite as good.

CD -> MP3
Free music, convenient to carry lots of music around. Infinite lifetime. Many are willing to listen to MP3's at lower quality levels in order to store more for portability reasons.

VHS -> DVD
Special Features, quick skipping forward and back, no rewinding, quality improvement.

VHS -> DVR
Easier to record shows, new features of pausing live TV, easy to skip commercials. Quality varies depending on compression, sometimes being worse then high quality VHS.

Notice that quality is not a major factor in any of those. In fact sometimes consumers will shift to a lower quality format if it offers more features. Consumers won't shift to a new DVD format until it offers them something that is dramatically different then what they currently have. A small group will just as they did with Laser Disc and Mini-disc but the majority of people will wait until something better comes along.

[crashedout]

This is going to hurt their initial sales unless they say that they are going to have HD-DVD from the start. If they let these rumors continue people are going to hold their purchases and the intial sales boost the MS need to compete with Sony will not happen.

I expect Toshiba to supply HD-DVD drives to MS in time for the launch, maybe without the software to play it as that can be added later through Live. Toshiba needs a large installed base to compete with Blu-Ray and the 360 could supply it with little effort. It is after all just a DVD with a new laser that should not be too hard to manufacture right now.

If MS really wants the box to last five years it needs this type of storage and playback.

[crashedout]

I would argue there have been jumps for quality, just not often:

B&W--> Color
Antenna-->Cable..although the lack of dropouts did count for a lot.

Isnt that what we do when we buy a new video card, CPU or game console?

I don't think the formats will be DOA but nor do I think they will outsell DVD. I think they can get a percentage of the market and do well.

[Goronmon]

Its all moot anyways, HVD will win in the long run ;)

[*Legion*]

CD -> MP3
Free music, convenient to carry lots of music around. Infinite lifetime. Many are willing to listen to MP3's at lower quality levels in order to store more for portability reasons.

And the quality "dropoff" from CD to MP3 is undetectable to some, and at high bitrates, undetectable to most. Nothing like the quality difference between cassettes and CDs.

VHS -> DVR
Quality varies depending on compression, sometimes being worse then high quality VHS.

But much better than the quality of a VHS tape you record on more than once. :)

[Heretic Machine]

Here is the difference guys, for most consumers to switch to HD-DVD and get anything out of it, this would require:

Buying an enourmously expensive new television set, likely smaller than the one they already own.

Buying a new player, likely with fewer features and worse production quality than the one they have.

Buying movies in a format that will be hard to find, and could disapear.

The key difference is the television. You still got value for your money when you went up to DVD even with a normal TV. You won't get this with the new formats, you need a new and expensive TV to get any boost from these formats at all. That's just not going to happen until the majority of people have moved up to HD-TV. Don't expect it before 2010.

[NACIONAL]

And the quality "dropoff" from CD to MP3 is undetectable to some, and at high bitrates, undetectable to most. Nothing like the quality difference between cassettes and CDs.

Agree... Bitrates above 200kbps should do good.... (better with good speakers)

[[HATE]MyLife]

These two "format wars" are really two entirely different things, and comparing them doesn't work. DVD+R/DVD-R are formats for home users to burn, we're talking about formats that everyday people are expected to buy their movies on reguraly. But I've said it before, neither format will win as plain old DVD's still have the best value to the average consumer. HD-TV still isn't wide spread enough to dedicate an entire format shift over it.

The difference is that you don't have to entirely replace DVD to have HD-DVD. In theory, HD-DVD and DVD can be manufactured at the same factory. That's why Toshiba (and many movie studios) are so gung-ho about their format over Blu-Ray. The format can be in place and manufactured at the same time as DVD and be completely ready by the time HDTV is ubiquitous.

[netcraazzy]

I'm pretty sure that if MS does not include HD-DVD drives in the first xbox then games will not be intended to be released on that format. I'm thinking something like a DVR bundle similar to the PSX might be released down the road with the HD-DVD drive intended for movies only. I would actually be surprised if we didn't see something like this come out for both the 360 and PS3 at some point, the required hardware is already there only thing really lacking from both is a TV tuner. Who knows maybe this generation of consoles will be the one to bring DVRs to the masses similar to what PS2 did with DVD drives.

[Stryfe01]

I wonder if they'd just do a trade-in for a HD-DVD upgrade. You can remove the HDD, remember, so all your saves would be intact. You turn in your old X360 sans cables/HDD/controllers etc, just the box itself, get the new one. MS then takes your old one, opens it up, upgrades to HD-DVD, and sends that one back to the store for the next customer.

I've been doing some thinking about this, since my launch-day Xbox is finally displaying the 'Your Disc may be dirty or damaged' DVD-drive error. MS gave me a return authorization; all I'll have to do is mail in my Xbox and they'll either repair it (yeah right) or send me a refurbished one. After filling up two memory cards with save games, suddenly the detachable HDD made a lot of sense.


That would never happen. No company is willing to tak ethat big a financial loss for a format that's not guaranteed to come out on top in a war most consumers could care less about. it will either be hddvd out of the box, or nothing at all.

[Stryfe01]

This is going to hurt their initial sales unless they say that they are going to have HD-DVD from the start. If they let these rumors continue people are going to hold their purchases and the intial sales boost the MS need to compete with Sony will not happen.

I expect Toshiba to supply HD-DVD drives to MS in time for the launch, maybe without the software to play it as that can be added later through Live. Toshiba needs a large installed base to compete with Blu-Ray and the 360 could supply it with little effort. It is after all just a DVD with a new laser that should not be too hard to manufacture right now.

If MS really wants the box to last five years it needs this type of storage and playback.


This again, will only hurt sales for people like us. Even then not necessarily. Us techies\gamers tend to always think we are like everyone else. People will buy it if it offers something they want. It wont significantly hurt MS nor Sony's console numbers.

[mister_slim]

Nitpicky, but I wish people could keep the difference between 'HD DVD' and 'HD-DVD' straight.

Unless Toshiba can persuade consumers they need to upgrade to their format, I think Sony wins this. The PS3 will drive player prices down, and the install base and game manufacturing will drive availability up and media prices down. Sony wins by default, basically, via Trojan horse. Doesn't really matter much to me, since I rarely watch movies and I've had no problems with the GC disk capacity.

[Kelegacy]

If MS really wants the box to last five years it needs this type of storage and playback.

5 years? i hope it lasts longer than that. They already are jumping the gun by ditching the Xbox too soon. Maybe next round they'll last 3 years so they can get a bigger jump on Sony. At least the PS2 will last a healthy 6+ years.

The whole business venture to get the upperhand on the competition reeks of consumer abandonment. The Xbox could have lasted another couple years easily.

[Fonz]

Lets not forget the major point here, blue ray holds more capacity and is faster. Lets just hope the consumer market of america learns about this before MS throws out some trendy term at them like "HD" and the whole american consumer market hands over their wallets, im not so worried about japan, the land of tomagachis.....

[inmostlight]

HD sets really are not that expensive, and the prices are dropping rapidly. I am eagerly awaiting high def movie formats and gaming, the difference is easily noticeable.

For the price of a good gaming rig you can buy a large-screen HD set that will last you FAR LONGER than your computer. I expect to have this set for at least ten years and still be good. Plus it's not like it's tied to any one thing -- I can and do use it for movies, consoles, and PC gaming. It's an investment, and I've already gotten my money's worth. People who don't want something so big can easily find something for under a grand, it's not like HD is off-limits and unattainable.

As to the coming format wars, it's really irritating. Both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray have good and bad points. While Blu-Ray can hold more data, I am somewhat skeptical...both the wavelength and the distance from data to the disc surface allow much less room for error. I suspect, especially given Sony's past, there will be an enormous amount of disc read errors and quality control problems. Even things like dust are going to be a much bigger problem for Blu-Ray than with HD-DVD.

[Twigz'N'Berries]

Microsoft has a win win situation....their WM9 codec or VC10 or whatever they are calling it is in both format's video standard (Blu-Ray and HD-DVD)....they'll get money either way whoever "wins"

Wow, I thought Sony switched up to Blu Ray because everything about it would have been proprietary. Sony owns the Blu Ray tech, so everyone would have to pay them to use the format. That is one of the reasons I hope Blu-Ray flops. However, they already have some major Hollywood backing. Even Disney has stated that they are going to sell movies using the Blu-Ray format. Personally, I hope the technology to expand the capability of the current HD-DVD technology is quickly adopted and put into play. The new capacity already dwarfs blu-ray's 25GB.

If this is true, I still hope Blu-Ray flops.

[Twigz'N'Berries]

Here is the difference guys, for most consumers to switch to HD-DVD and get anything out of it, this would require:

Buying an enourmously expensive new television set, likely smaller than the one they already own.

Buying a new player, likely with fewer features and worse production quality than the one they have.

Buying movies in a format that will be hard to find, and could disapear.

The key difference is the television. You still got value for your money when you went up to DVD even with a normal TV. You won't get this with the new formats, you need a new and expensive TV to get any boost from these formats at all. That's just not going to happen until the majority of people have moved up to HD-TV. Don't expect it before 2010.


Well, analog tv stations will probably stop broadcasting by 2008 unless congress pushes it back again. Since the government wants to sell off that spectrum, for profit, I don't think that will happen. So I'd expect that people will go buy that HD set a bit sooner.

[Twigz'N'Berries]

http://www.themacobserver.com/article/2005/05/11.7.shtml
This article touts pretty much says that HD-DVD can compete within roughly 5 GB of Blu-Ray. However, what type of files will require 50GB of free space? Blu-Ray is more likely to hurt the consumer than anything. The consumer will have to go out and purchase new equipment (which will not be cheap unless the manufacturers choose to subsidize their products and that is not likely) and most likey they will buy it off of hype that this is a better format for them. By the time a game system needs that kind of space, we would most likely have better methods of compression. http://www.themacobserver.com/article/2005/05/11.7.shtml

Most consumers should be just fine until the holographic memory discs are available. But it all breaks down to making money and most companys want to make more of it now...not worry about what is in the best interest of their consumers. Check out this thread if you have questions about the holographic disc.

http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2005/commentary05061306.htm
http://www.research.ibm.com/journal/rd/443/ashley.html
http://www.physorg.com/news785.html

The companies could go holographic and eliminate blu-ray altogether. Sure, the media would be somewhat expensive at first, so would blu-ray. But it would make a huge leap instead of a costly baby step...and we all know that we will be sold on the capabilities of the holographic disc later.

I'm just saying...

[Last of the Red Hot Mamas]

Wow, I thought Sony switched up to Blu Ray because everything about it would have been proprietary. Sony owns the Blu Ray tech, so everyone would have to pay them to use the format. That is one of the reasons I hope Blu-Ray flops.

Blu-Ray is as much a proprietary Sony technology as HD-DVD is a proprietary Toshiba technology. You ever notice how nearly every article about HD-DVD mentions Toshiba? Why do you think that is? Because they're the biggest ones pushing for the format. They sunk the most money into it and they have the most to gain or lose. Sony sunk the most into Blu-Ray so they're pushing it. Neither format is really "proprietary" in the sense of the word you're using -- both involve numerous technologies from other companies, such as Microsoft's WMV codecs (in other words, Sony doesn't own everything used in Blu-Ray and Toshiba doesn't own everything used in HD-DVD), and both are semi-open formats in the same sense that DVD is, i.e. pay a license fee to the necessary coalition (the Blu-Ray Disc Association or the DVD Forum) and you can access the specs and manufacture compatible hardware/software. Neither is a closed format.

The new capacity already dwarfs blu-ray's 25GB.

Not really, since the current Blu-Ray spec tops out at 50GB, not 25. 100GB discs exist and the theoretical maximum is 200, although neither format has been standardized yet.

[bobbler]

Don't get too excited guys... Microsoft and Toshiba aren't quite in bed.

Reuters paints a slightly less dramatic picture of their "agreement".

Rueters (http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=internetNews&storyID=2005-06-28T004428Z_01_SPI802642_RTRIDST_0_OUKIN-TECH-TOSHIBA-MICROSOFT.XML)

Gates reiterated that Microsoft would keep its neutral stance on the format battle, not supporting either side against the other.

I think that sort of sums it up.

Another take on it (http://gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=9804)

"The initial shipments of Xbox 360 will be based on today's DVD format," Gates explained. "We are looking at whether future versions of Xbox 360 will incorporate an additional capability of an HD DVD player or something else."

There won't be any HD-DVD in Xbox360 unless its clear that its going to beat BR -- MS could just as easily put a BR drive in if it were the other way around. On launch, it will be a DVD drive.

Toshiba is using the MS name for its marketing -- a Big name attached to their product is a good thing (Toshiba would be stupid not to flaunt it), regardless of how much the big name has to do with their product.

[Mrbunchypants]

I know the bluray seems silly to have that much space but consider this. How many games compress there files to fit on to cds and even dvds. With blurays you would have no need to do that. you could streem data right from the disc to the CPU or GPU, or even the harddrive. makeing installs a bit faster by just copying insted of copy and then uncompress.

Now you put that idea in a console that is not going to have a harddrive. it makes it that much more attractive. And no need to switch disc.

Just an idea.