Sony Market Slipping?

[Vandenh]

GamesIndustry has a news blurb (http://www.gamesindustry.biz/news.php?aid=9622) about a report from DFC which predicts that Sony is in for a serious next-gen slip.
Market research firm DFC Intelligence has announced a number of predictions for the next-generation console battle, revealing that it expects Sony's grip on the market to weaken - with PS3 set to win only 50 per cent market share at best.A more even next gen market share distribution would be good for consumers.

[Commissar Rob]

Hmmm, based on what? I didn't see any research or really...well...anything to back up that claim. Did they base it on performance of the PSP or PSX? Did they survey likely buyers?

While I agree that competition is good for the market, and a more even market share would mean stronger competiton, I don't see that DFC has given us any reason to believe their claim.

Or, because it's 5:00 a.m. CDT am I'm missing something?

[Sion]

The console war is OVER!

[Eon]

I think MS will probably take the US market this time around, and fail to significantly threaten Sony in Japan.

It'll be interesting to see what happens in Europe. In many ways this might be exactly what Europe needs - with the two giants facing little competition in their homelands and having less success in their opponents homeland, Europe might actually get treated nicely for a change.

[Borys]

Sony has currently 70% market share, they can only go down.

The same goes to Nintendo's handheld market share (95% IIRC).

That's not exactly rocket science, people.

[Vandenh]

>Hmmm, based on what? I didn't see any research

Well you will have to BUY the report if you want their reasons. GI is just reporting the conclusion.

[Vandenh]

>That's not exactly rocket science, people.

Err.. Borys. Nintendo's market share in portable gaming has been going up the last few years. Of course after reaching 95% I guess they only way is down. Sony can go higher as well... but apparently that looks unlikely. From 70% to a maximum of 50% is a landslide and I wonder how that will translate in $$$$

[Commissar Rob]

>Hmmm, based on what? I didn't see any research

Well you will have to BUY the report if you want their reasons. GI is just reporting the conclusion.

Yeah, yeah, yeah - but they don't even have a summary reason there. Trust us, it's in the $3000 report? :rolleyes:

[Borys]

Err.. Borys. Nintendo's market share in portable gaming has been going up the last few years. Of course after reaching 95% I guess they only way is down. Sony can go higher as well... but apparently that looks unlikely. From 70% to a maximum of 50% is a landslide and I wonder how that will translate in $$$$

Going from 70 to 95 looks unlikely like hell - you've got 2 competitors - Microsoft with almost endless pockets and Nintendo with nostalgia fanbase running wild.

You really can't compare it to Nintendo's 20 year GameBoy domination and say "See, Nintendo could! why shouldn't Sony?"

I applause Sony for reaching that 70% and basically stomping others to the ground but come on, nobody should expect them to actually gain marketshare with the PS3.

Sony losing about 10-20% of market is obvious, at least to me. Nothing sensational about that, that's simply called competition :)

Now would I want the market to be sliced 33/33/33 is quite another story...

[bapenguin]

50% Sony
35% MS
15% Nintendo
.00000001% Phantom

That's how it'll stack up by the end of this generation.

[Kamalot]

I read somewhere that the entertainment (Playstation) division of Sony was the only division that was making any substantial amount of money. Should that division take a substantial dip, how would the effects be felt through the rest of the Sony Empire?

[EvilBob46]

I think MS will probably take the US market this time around.

I'm not so sure about that. The word Playstation still rings a lot clearer with your average Joe Gamer, and nowadays has become (more than any other word) a synonym for video games, kind of like Nintendo long ago.

I'm not saying the PS3 will be better, but the advantage it has is that *everyone* knows about Playstation (even grandma) and the vast majority of people have played it at least once in their lifetime. XBox is gaining a lot more name recognition, but it's still not on that same level in that category.

A person that is not interested in "the details" and researching exactly which console to buy will most likely get the PS3 based on previous experiences with the PS1 or PS2 (perhaps exclusively), name recognition or simply wanting more of the "same", a reassured purchase if you will.

[Heretic Machine]

I hate these people... The ones who do "research." As far as I can tell, they either make shit up and get it wrong, or read forums and rip people off. I want their job.

[Kamalot]

I'm not so sure about that. The word Playstation still rings a lot clearer with your average Joe Gamer, and nowadays has become (more than any other word) a synonym for video games, kind of like Nintendo long ago.
I think you defeat your own argument. Nintendo was once synonymous with gaming.

“Wanna play Nintendo?”
“Stop playing Nintendo until you finish your homework.”

While people certainly know the name Playstation, it isn’t on the same level that Nintendo was.

Does name recognition prevent other people from taking your market share? Ask Nintendo.

[EvilBob46]

Does name recognition prevent other people from taking your market share? Ask Nintendo.

Nintendo's market share went down because they failed to appeal to older gamers as well as younger ones in their later years and their name recognition back-fired with the "kiddy" argument. Is Sony going to make that same mistake? Uh, I don't think so. There is a big difference between the two companies in that regard.

[Mrbunchypants]

I predict that I will sleep with every E3 Babe in the year 2006.



















If my wife lets me. :D

Didn't some one predict that MS was going to clean up last gen?

[riposte101]

I read somewhere that the entertainment (Playstation) division of Sony was the only division that was making any substantial amount of money. Should that division take a substantial dip, how would the effects be felt through the rest of the Sony Empire?

That is exactly what Microsoft is trying to do. Microsoft can outlast Sony. Well...until the Japanese government comes in and backs them. While I'm not crazy enough to say that Microsoft will win this next generation, the generation after the x360 will be Microsoft's because they can absorb low to non-existent profit margins in this area and Sony definately cannot.

[Kamalot]

That is exactly what Microsoft is trying to do. Microsoft can outlast Sony. Well...until the Japanese government comes in and backs them. While I'm not crazy enough to say that Microsoft will win this next generation, the generation after the x360 will be Microsoft's because they can absorb low to non-existent profit margins in this area and Sony definately cannot.
That's the Walmart effect.

[riposte101]

That's the Walmart effect.

I'm confused by this statement. Can you elaborate?

[Mrbunchypants]

I'm not to sure about MS out lasting sony. MS is have a tough time with it's OS dept. Was it 50% that are still running Win 2000 servers?

MS has had to put off longhorn in favor of patchs for xp. think about how that going to affect them. The more time you send fixing something the more time your not make the next product. No new product no new money. and the chance that someone else will beat you to the market with something better.

Case and point is Firefox.
I'm not say that MS is going to loss the OS market just that other might get more of a foot hold on it.

[Kamalot]

I'm confused by this statement. Can you elaborate?Walmart can come into town, sell things at discounted prices that other stores can't compete with. Walmart will lose money on the sale of items and make up for it on the sale of other items. In this way, they can under-cut the competition and push other companies out of business.

This ties a parallel to theory you posted earlier about Microsoft outlasting Sony. By pulling Sony into an arms race, each side has to spend unthinkable amounts of money creating new systems, marketing and so forth.

Microsoft appears to be willing to loose money to accelerate the arms race. They can afford to because the business end is supported by the many other profitable arms of Microsoft.

If the Playstation division is the only division that is making any substantial income, Sony is using it to support the other divisions that are floundering. Sony then REQUIRES the Playstation division to be profitable.

An interesting theory to say the least.

[mister_slim]

I think you defeat your own argument. Nintendo was once synonymous with gaming.

“Wanna play Nintendo?”
“Stop playing Nintendo until you finish your homework.”

While people certainly know the name Playstation, it isn’t on the same level that Nintendo was.

Does name recognition prevent other people from taking your market share? Ask Nintendo.
And don't forget Sega. I've had a couple people mention the Genesis this week, and they've all refered to it as a Sega.

I wonder what would have happened had Nintendo grabbed Sega a couple of years back and co-branded Nintendo = youth and Sega = adult?

[Eon]

I just can't see the Japanese government allowing Sony to be pulled down and gobbled up by Microsoft. And frankly, as a gamer and a developer, I don't want them to.

It's bad enough only having 2 competitive platforms (sorry Nintendo, you know I still love you) but reducing that to one? <shudder> It'd be back to the crazy licensing deals of the old SNES days.

"Right, I want you to make it with your own money. Pay to advertise and duplicate it. Pay ME a huge fee for duplicating it. And I want most of the profits."