Analyst Says Third Parties WILL Do Well on Nintendo Platforms

[Doctor Setebos]

In direct response to an analysis report published last week (http://www.evilavatar.com/forums/showthread.php?t=29110) claiming that Nintendo's highly-popular Wii and DS game systems will actually be bad for the gaming industry, Wedbush Morgan analyst strikes back by saying "No, it won't (http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=24648)".

Pachter went on to state that he believes Mitchell offered "an incomplete analysis", arguing, "His conclusion is that Nintendo's success on the GameCube and GBA will translate to future success on the DS and Wii, so he's basing his opinion on a view that Nintendo will capture somewhere around 30 per cent market share on each of its new consoles. This is naive.

"I expect that Nintendo's first party share will decline from around 30 per cent last cycle to around 20 per cent this cycle, and that many publishers trying to capture market share will succeed."

Pachter pointed out that companies such as Electronic Arts and Ubisoft "generally ignored" Nintendo platforms during the last console cycle - but are now "laser focused on growing market share on both the DS and Wii platforms". When two analysts disagree, who do you believe?

[fitbabits]

When two analysts disagree, who do you believe?
Neither of them.

[jeffool]

Evil Analysts.

[Abednigo]

Am I sick of analysts and their opinions? I submit to you that I am.

[Kamalot]

Is this like mixing acids and bases, or matter and antimatter?

[Skyelan]

When two analysts disagree, who do you believe?

Whoever survives the steel cage match.

[Gorvi]

When two analysts disagree, who do you believe?
Breakdance fighting.

[Evil Avatar]

I'm going to stick with the first guy - history has already shown us that Nintendo fans are fanatical about Nintendo games and Nintendo licenses and don't give two shits about anything else.

That spells bad news for all the companies trying to jump onto the Wii and DS bandwagon, but the upside is that it spells great news for Microsoft and Sony.

[Bone]

I guess I believe the one who actually thinks it through and bases the analysis on up-to-date facts.

The attention from EA and Ubisoft is a pretty clear indication to me. Especially EA, who don't even wipe their own asses if it won't improve profits in some way.

[Zanzibar]

Whoever survives the steel cage match.

I'd only agree to a steel cage match between two analysts if there was one more opponent thrown in there for good measure:
http://www.rit.edu/~amw4085/tigergallery/tiger33.jpg

[bitwise]

Neither of them.

QFT. Fit ftw.

[Arphahat]

Analyst fight! Analyst fight!

[jpublic]

To be fair, you have to compare apples to apples here. What Nintendo devices have had a very stong market position?

1) NES
2) SNES
3) GB/GBC
4) GBA
5) DS
6) Wii

And you could probably argue that 3 & 4 are the same thing, and 6 is pretty uncertain, albeit probable.


In any of the first 5 cases, did 3rd parties really lose out? I seem to recall on each of those that 3rd party games, when done with the same attention to quality and detail that 1st party games were (or even a significant fraction), they did well, if not fabulously.

The *problem* is that most 3rd party publishers make crappy games, and people would rather buy good ones.

[Kamalot]

To be fair, you have to compare apples to apples here. What Nintendo devices have had a very stong market position?

1) NES
2) SNES
3) GB/GBC
4) GBA
5) DS
6) Wii

And you could probably argue that 3 & 4 are the same thing, and 6 is pretty uncertain, albeit probable.


In any of the first 5 cases, did 3rd parties really lose out? I seem to recall on each of those that 3rd party games, when done with the same attention to quality and detail that 1st party games were (or even a significant fraction), they did well, if not fabulously.

The *problem* is that most 3rd party publishers make crappy games, and people would rather buy good ones.
You make some interesting points. 3rd Parties ALWAYS make out as winners when pairing with the market leaders.

[51|RandoM]

Gotta admit, how can you doubt it after seeing stuff like this:


Tuesday
Heatseeker (PS2 (http://www.gametab.com/ps2/heatseeker/6459/), WII (http://www.gametab.com/wii/heatseeker/6461/))
Legend of the Dragon (PS2 (http://www.gametab.com/ps2/legend.of.the.dragon/6456/), PSP (http://www.gametab.com/psp/legend.of.the.dragon/6457/), WII (http://www.gametab.com/wii/legend.of.the.dragon/6458/))

[LikeTheRazor]

The *problem* is that most 3rd party publishers make crappy games, and people would rather buy good ones.
Word. Nintendo makes really good games so it's harder for 3rd parties to compete on their systems.

[Serapth]

The *problem* is that most 3rd party publishers make crappy games, and people would rather buy good ones.


Its amazing how that *problem* only applies itself to Nintendo's consoles. Somehow Xbox and Playstation games tend to have a much higher ratio of good selling/quality 3rd party games, while Nintendo doesnt. Plus, the number of very good games the sold meh or worse on the Gamecube.

[jpublic]

Its amazing how that *problem* only applies itself to Nintendo's consoles. Somehow Xbox and Playstation games tend to have a much higher ratio of good selling/quality 3rd party games, while Nintendo doesnt. Plus, the number of very good games the sold meh or worse on the Gamecube.

I think that first bit is more a function of the also-ran status of the N64 and GC in the industry than a dig against Nintendo as a 1st party developer.

3rd party developers as a matter of course will get teams making top-tier games for the more successful platforms, and the N64 and GC got what was left.

I do disagree about your statement of very good games not doing well - they did very well considering the odd/poor marketing placement of the N64 and GC. Was there a top-tier game on the GC that didn't do well? The only one I would think that could possibly be in that situation was Eternal Darkness, and that was less poor performance than delayed success.

[Zaro]

Time will tell who's right, but for the moment i see many future third party games
i'm interrest to buy for the DS and for the Wii.

[nate5881]

If you sell it, they will come.

Developers and publishers won't be able to ignore a market leading install base...especially when the development costs for said console are significantly less than development costs for it's competitors.

[KingGorilla]

Is this like mixing acids and bases, or matter and antimatter?
So you are asking if we get an explosion or a rift in space-time?

[RMan]

I'm going to stick with the first guy - history has already shown us that Nintendo fans are fanatical about Nintendo games and Nintendo licenses and don't give two shits about anything else.
This is only if you choose the most negative part of history you can find (selective analysis, you can get any conclusion you want with enough sample data using this approach). If you look at it objectively, it’s really no different than any other company. I can see an argument for it being tough to compete with Nintendo’s games, but these ‘Nintendo fans’ are more often not Nintendo fans, they’re game fans, because you like to buy great games doesn’t make you a Nintendo fan. I suppose there is a fair argument that Nintendo makes it hard for a 3rd party that’s competing with a Nintendo title, and Nintendo has a broader range of titles than MS or Sony in their 1st/2nd party lineup, but it’s more a product of trying to compete with any software developer than a ‘problem’ with the platform itself. Heck, people still see the 360 as the place you want to put a shooter on, even though MS is throwing insurmountable resources at their shooters, so it’s hard to argue in light of that that Nintendo is somehow hurting similar products on their platform.

[51|RandoM]

The part some people seem to be missing is that Sony and Microsoft are usually happy to help market 3rd party efforts on their platform. Nintendo not only doesn't appear to be happy doing that, they treat them like the enemy.

[drakkarim]

i think the only 3rd party developers who nintendo will hurt with their great first party games, are those that keep putting out shit clones of their typical wares. consumers aren't the idiots that they think they are and they get sick of the same crap over and over.

the first analyst was crying because nintendo was making better games then many of the 3rd party shops, WAAAAHHHH!, get a fucking clue, there's an easy solution to that...

[RMan]

The part some people seem to be missing is that Sony and Microsoft are usually happy to help market 3rd party efforts on their platform. Nintendo not only doesn't appear to be happy doing that, they treat them like the enemy.
How so? I mean, perhaps you’re right about Nintendo, but I’ve not seen evidence of that, so please cite evidence.

My gut reaction is that much of this opinion is based on assumptions taken to the extreme negative. We know that Nintendo is catching up in the 3rd party support, since the Wii has really come from behind. We also know that MS specifically, has the greatest advantage being money, and has reasons to throw otherwise unreasonable sums of money towards making it’s product a success. This is why, IMO, you have so many commercials for 3rd party 360 products that end with the 360 logo, I’m sure MS is paying for that and otherwise subsidizing 3rd party marketing simply because that’s an easy way to leverage their best asset. However, I do not see how these things translate to Nintendo treating 3rd parties like the enemy, or being in any way ‘unfair’ to them. If anything, by not forcing 3rd parties to focus on high production values they’ve done them a great service, Sony and MS may be willing to do more marketing for 3rd parties (not even sure about Sony) but it’s certainly not a net positive, IMO. I’m not going to be entirely happy if a company says “we’re going to subsidize your marketing by 25%, but we’re also going to effectively raise your development costs by 100%, and you still won’t be able to compete with our first party products”. I think if you look at the big picture, seeing Nintendo as some kind of hurdle to 3rd parties is pretty unreasonable, especially as more of a hurdle than MS or Sony.

[jpublic]

The part some people seem to be missing is that Sony and Microsoft are usually happy to help market 3rd party efforts on their platform. Nintendo not only doesn't appear to be happy doing that, they treat them like the enemy.

Do you have any evidence to support this? Mostly what I see from Nintendo is the response of 'that's a good idea, let's do that with with more Mario!'

[Sandman]

People seem to think that just because everyone caught onto the DS the Wii will work the same way. I don't think that will happen. A touch screen is probably alot easyer to deal with than motion sensing. Also the PS2 won't be around forever so eventually 3rd party devs will either have to start porting 360/PS3 games (which will probably turn out even worse than PS2 ports) or start making Wii games from scratch.

[KingGorilla]

At the end Anaylst whispers "If you happen to be called Knoami or Square"

[Rirath]

Am I sick of analysts and their opinions? I submit to you that I am.

This just in, analysts say that Abednigo may have opinions. Analysts are mixed on whether or not he is currently sick of them however. One analyst predicts based on the data available he will soon come to love analysts and, possibly, ride a unicorn.

Analysts are, however, unanimous in their agreement its great to make more money than many people while being completely dense.

[Rirath]

People seem to think that just because everyone caught onto the DS the Wii will work the same way. I don't think that will happen. A touch screen is probably alot easyer to deal with than motion sensing. Also the PS2 won't be around forever so eventually 3rd party devs will either have to start porting 360/PS3 games (which will probably turn out even worse than PS2 ports) or start making Wii games from scratch.

And please keep in mind the DS's only competition is the PSP, which is a wildly different platform than the Nintendo OWNED Game Boy market we've known for a decade. On the console front it's the opposite. Nintendo is the novelty while Sony / MS owns the "typical" system.

[Wolvie]

If an analyst falls, and no one is around to hear it, does anyone care?

[Micasa]

What's the last generation of hardware where third-party releases had consistent success on a Nintendo platform? Anyone know?

[RMan]

What's the last generation of hardware where third-party releases had consistent success on a Nintendo platform? Anyone know?
Not sure what you mean by ‘consistent success’, but the times it was ‘normal’ was the times Nintendo was market leader (NES, SNES, GB, GBA and DS).

[Yellowman]

Oh no Nintendo are doing well. Quick lets predict their doom over and over again. Maybe if we predict hard enough it will happen...

*sigh* this site is predictable these days.

[Rirath]

*sigh* this site is predictable these days.

Oh please, you haven't been here long enough to predict anything, and the time you have been here you haven't been paying attention. You should know by now -- we generally hate analysts.