Analysts Officially Worthless. Use Internet Forums as Source.

[bapenguin]

Well some Analysts have officially lost their crediblity. According to Gamasutra (http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=13385), BrandIntel has released the findings of its latest study, showing that sentiment toward Microsoft's Xbox 360 Elite...by using forums.According to the firm's metrics, the sampling of 600 posts from 328 gamers spread across 25 gaming forums show a '2.6' level sentiment for the newly announced upgraded Xbox console on a highly-negative to highly-positive scale of 1 to 5.

This is in contrast to the sentiment of the standard model of the Xbox 360 itself, which is currently tracking at 3.9, and the Wii and PlayStation 3, currently tracking at 3.8 and 2.8, respectively.

Wow. A new low for analysts. Why forums for the most part gauge the hardcore base, you miss an entire segment of the population. I'm not disagreeing with their findings, but it just seems kind of silly. Maybe it's time we form our own Analyst group here and release information to the press. Evil Avatar Analysts has a nice ring to it, doesn't it?

[bean19]

You might want to be more specific in your use of the word "analyst". There are plenty of analysts who don't use forums and one bad apple doesn't ruin the bunch.

Does Jack Thompson make all lawyers retarded to you? Did OJ Simpson make all former football players murderers?

Huge generalization as your headline and you never get more specific. I have a gay friend who hates Lost Planet because it makes him cold, should I submit a story that says "Gay People HATE Lost Planet"?

[Borys]

Total agreement here but that doesn't change the fact that Elite is still worthless.

[Vandenh]

Crybabies R US

[wezlypipz]

Well, it's a worthless poll anyway. Where else would they get this info?

[TyphoidMarty]

I would drop the avatar. "Evil Analysts" has a much better ring to it, and confirms the general feeling on the group.

[Disgustipated]

I figured out how they did it.

New poster: "HEY GUYZ DO U TINK THE XBOX 360 E1337 IS KOOL!?"

Resident forum-nerds:" LOL WELL IT KIND OF GAY AND EXPESIVE I JUST WANT UPGRAD FOR MY XBOX FOR FRE"

New poster: "LOL OK IT SUX THEN? THX!


(Hm. Definitely a 1.2. This guy is not happy at all! Our analyzing will show the world the TRUTH!!)"

[Johan]

Isn't being an analysts essentially similar to flipping a coin on two-sided issues? Or a multi-sided die for more complex issues?

I'm sure it's a bit like the weather, in that they try to use actual evidence, but end up as successful as a coin toss would be anyways.

[Gorvi]

Isn't being an analysts essentially similar to flipping a coin on two-sided issues? Or a multi-sided die for more complex issues?
It's making an educated guess, nothing more, nothing less. Now, you can debate that key word "educated" as much as you want.

[Aequitas]

On a long enough timeline .... everybody dies.

The same is apparent here. With a large enough sample space, everything will average out. That's why, to a large degree, this kind of survey is useless.

[Kamalot]

Strange

I see people all the time on Evil Avatar and other places, lamenting that the voice of the hardcore gamer is never listened to. This company comes along and judges feedback of hardcore gamers on Internet forums, and the same people complain that the analysis is bullshit?

It is fairly clear that the analysis is of hardcore gamers on Internet forums, the exact kind of analysis that hardcore gamers on Internet forums have been asking for.

If you want your voices to be heard, and forums to be taken seriously, pointing and laughing at people who DO take them seriously isn't a good idea.

[Disgustipated]

Strange

I see people all the time on Evil Avatar and other places, lamenting that the voice of the hardcore gamer is never listened to. This company comes along and judges feedback of hardcore gamers on Internet forums, and the same people complain that the analysis is bullshit?

It is fairly clear that the analysis is of hardcore gamers on Internet forums, the exact kind of analysis that hardcore gamers on Internet forums have been asking for.

If you want your voices to be heard, and forums to be taken seriously, pointing and laughing at people who DO take them seriously isn't a good idea.

Kamalot's argument is rendered worthless once you realize there's the possibility that they used IGN/GameFAQs for their polling. :)

[Reanimated]

Well at least the Elite is getting as much good vibes as the PS3, lol.

[Tyrant]

A similar study using internet forums was done a few months back as well, gauging PS3 and possibly other console feedback, although I can't seem to find a link for it.

[Serapth]

Internet forums are just another demographic. Ignoring this data is no different then ignoring any other data. At least in the forums, people arent actively being polled, so it may actually reveal more honest statistics.

[Itchyeyes]

It is fairly clear that the analysis is of hardcore gamers on Internet forums, the exact kind of analysis that hardcore gamers on Internet forums have been asking for.
I would say that depends on which forums these analysts are visiting. I don't really find this very surprising though. Analysts know business. They generally don't know games, hence they are reliant upon those who do to decipher the importance of news and events in the industry.

[drakkarim]

all your analysis in the world won't stop the fact that the unit's limited production will sell out anyway. its an introductory collector's item.

personally i'm thinking of getting one, it'd be my first 360, but in light of their recent warranty announcements, i'm willing to consider getting one of these rather then wait for the 65's now.

i could care less whether its a collector's item or not, but this would be as good a time as any to actually get my first one. the current basic/premium ones just have too much of a cloud of 'issues' (i know, most are fine) for me to consider them.

[TrackZero]

Evil Avatar Analysts has a nice ring to it, doesn't it? [/i]

It does, start that shit up. Besides, who knows if those guys are counting multiple posts from the same people. And how to do rate opinion based on a number? (Oh wait, I know...game reviews....)

[TrackZero]

Kamalot's argument is rendered worthless once you realize there's the possibility that they used IGN/GameFAQs for their polling. :)

Are we assuming that even analysts are too smart to read the Gamespot forums? ;)

[drakkarim]

Evil Avatar Analysts has a nice ring to it, doesn't it? [/i]

(taking from EA its in the game) "EAA, It's in the BLAB!"

[Disgustipated]

Are we assuming that even analysts are too smart to read the Gamespot forums? ;)

This may surprise you, but the Gamespot forums ARE the GameFAQs forums.

Go to a game, check out the topic list on GameFAQs for that game's forum.

Now do the same for Gamespot.

http://www.gamespot.com/pc/strategy/commandconquer3/forum.html

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=932602

[Haemorrhage]

The release of the Elite is unfortunate for MS. Their momentum has really slowed since Christmas mostly due to the Wii. The Elite has been a disaster so far. It is being slammed in the media, getting all kinds of negative press. The lack of WiFi in the Elite has really hurt the system. It is being compared to the PS3, which you DON'T want right now.

I feel the only positive strategy they could have done was to have a modest price reduction on the Core and Premium units and release the optional 120 gig HDD for a more reasonable price. Then down the road just add the HDMI into all systems.

[Roc Ingersol]

Yeah, it's just the 99% of analysts making the remaining 1% look bad. ;)

Internet forums are just another demographic.
That's a dangerous misconception. Forums are inherently skewed to the passionate -- and heavily toward the passionately negative. Overall: it's a stastically worthless sample. (Usually the only time you even get majority positive reactions is to developer/publisher promises and plans. Very rarely do completed products get a majority positive reaction.)

It's akin to a study I read some years ago, that claimed an absurdly high rate of women had eating disorders. (something like 75%). Reading through their method, it turns out they got participants by asking women who thought they might have an eating disorder to come in for a test. So in all actuality, it was merely 75% of women who already thought they had an eating disorder actually did. Which doesn't say anything about the rate of eating disorders amongst all women.

Similarly, saying 'gamers responded negatively online' says nothing about overall reaction amongst 'gamers'. All it shows is that, amongst gamers that posted about this topic, many were negative. Which is far and away the norm for delivered products.

Furthermore, online reactions are notoriously bad for making any sort of informed decision about consumer products. People bitched incessantly about the original iPod, knock-off, uninspired FPS games and 'this year's sports' upgrades. Yet those products sold like gangbusters.
Similarly, among the things with majority positive 'buzz' online -- games like Okami, and Psychonauts, devices like the Archos and Zen -- mostly they do crap business.

About the only useful thing you can learn from scanning online, is determining what, specifically, people are bitching about most.

[Kamalot]

The release of the Elite is unfortunate for MS. Their momentum has really slowed since Christmas mostly due to the Wii. The Elite has been a disaster so far. It is being slammed in the media, getting all kinds of negative press. The lack of WiFi in the Elite has really hurt the system. It is being compared to the PS3, which you DON'T want right now.
I agree that introducing a high-end, expensive 360 does little to combat the low-cost Wii, but all of the negative press the 360 Elite gets also applies to the PS3. If people think that the Elite is over priced for what it offers, people will surely think the same thing about the PS3, which is even more expensive and whose additional features, WiFi and Bluray, have absolutely nothing to do with gaming.

At least the 360 still has other options at lower prices. At the expensive end of the spectrum, there is a LOT of negative press.

[Kamalot]

That's a dangerous misconception. Forums are inherently skewed to the passionate -- and heavily toward the passionately negative. Overall: it's a stastically worthless sample. (Usually the only time you even get majority positive reactions is to developer/publisher promises and plans. Very rarely do completed products get a majority positive reaction.)

...

About the only useful thing you can learn from scanning online, is determining what, specifically, people are bitching about most.
Agreed. You can MEASURE the most passionate people's reaction to each of the consoles and compare them to each other. When doing this, the Elite comes out slightly below the PS3. Perhaps all of the forum posts are negative, but they can still be counted to see the propensity of negative posts towards each of the consoles.

[51|RandoM]

Where else are they gonna find people who give a shit about the 360 elite?

The average consumer doesn't even buy the regular 360, much less a more expensive version of it.

[Serapth]

Where else are they gonna find people who give a shit about the 360 elite?


Once IPTV and PVR become a reality, I think you will find the Elite much more enticing.

That said, for now, its pretty damned meh.


For example, to buy the HD PVR box I have now would cost me about 600$ and I believe it has a 120 gig drive. Or, I can buy an Xbox 360 for 100$ less, and get gaming for free.

I view the Xbox360 Elite as more targeted at Tivo and Scientific Atlanta then it is at the Wii or PS3.

[Kamalot]

Where else are they gonna find people who give a shit about the 360 elite?
Oh snap! :D

[51|RandoM]

Once IPTV and PVR become a reality, I think you will find the Elite much more enticing.

That said, for now, its pretty damned meh.

I personally won't, but then again... I have a computer.

With things like IPTV and PVR, the new drive size isn't enough either, imho. You either don't keep anything after you've watched it once, in which case the regular drive is sufficient, or you want to keep everything, in which case the new drive isn't sufficient either.

[Dag-Sabot]

I'm just gonna go with "garbage in garbage out" law of statistics and probably life. MS and others would be foolhardy not to utilize the "free" feedback from sites like this, and even, as distasteful as it sounds, gamefaqs. Heck they could even get a shill to post some news and gauge the response. Easy.

[torrefaction]

I personally won't, but then again... I have a computer.

With things like IPTV and PVR, the new drive size isn't enough either, imho. You either don't keep anything after you've watched it once, in which case the regular drive is sufficient, or you want to keep everything, in which case the new drive isn't sufficient either.

The whole idea of IPTV is that the majority of programs aren't kept. They're streamed instantly. This drive makes digital distribution more of a feasible thing, you just won't run out so quickly.

[Serapth]

The whole idea of IPTV is that the majority of programs aren't kept. They're streamed instantly. This drive makes digital distribution more of a feasible thing, you just won't run out so quickly.


Not to mention a box with 3x3.2ghz processors is going to be able to handle much better compression then a typical setop box. Look at how small some of the HD downloads have gotten on Live.

[51|RandoM]

The whole idea of IPTV is that the majority of programs aren't kept. They're streamed instantly. This drive makes digital distribution more of a feasible thing, you just won't run out so quickly.

That is the idea on the product side. I'm not so sure that is the idea in the heads of a market willing to pay $479 for such a device.

[Serapth]

That is the idea on the product side. I'm not so sure that is the idea in the heads of a market willing to pay $479 for such a device.

Why, its atleast 100$ cheaper then the competition in HD PVRs and included videogames for free. Now they just need to deliver on the IPTV side.

Is anywhere here in one of the IPTV test markets?

[torrefaction]

That is the idea on the product side. I'm not so sure that is the idea in the heads of a market willing to pay $479 for such a device.

If they started delivering me the ability to download a few games direct to hard drive (Not just XBLA games), expand their movie collection, and add IPTV?

I'd be there.

[51|RandoM]

If they started delivering me the ability to download a few games direct to hard drive (Not just XBLA games), expand their movie collection, and add IPTV?

I'd be there.


Let us know when it happens. When that IF becomes reality then maybe they won't have to farm Internet forums to find opinions about the 360 Elite.

I'm waiting for the 360 SKU that adds reliability, especially if it is a device I might leave on unattended for PVR purposes.

[torrefaction]

Let us know when it happens. When that IF becomes reality then maybe they won't have to farm Internet forums to find opinions about the 360 Elite.

I'm waiting for the 360 SKU that adds reliability, especially if it is a device I might leave on unattended for PVR purposes.

Technically, you won't need to leave it unattended with IPTV. Once again, it's a different ballgame. Implemented properly, IPTV streams immediately when you request it. A PVR functionality would just remind you new episodes are available.

*Edit*

Expect to see a low-power standby mode though, just like your cable box has.

[Draconis]

This is all I have to say about Analysts:

http://www.n-europe.com/featuresgfx/gamerpals27.jpg

[51|RandoM]

Technically, you won't need to leave it unattended with IPTV. Once again, it's a different ballgame. Implemented properly, IPTV streams immediately when you request it. A PVR functionality would just remind you new episodes are available.


Make up your mind. If it is mostly streaming, I don't need all the extra drive space. If it isn't mostly streaming it needs to run unattended.

That still makes the Premium sufficient, or it makes no 360 SKU sufficient.

[torrefaction]

Make up your mind. If it is mostly streaming, I don't need all the extra drive space. If it isn't mostly streaming it needs to run unattended.

That still makes the Premium sufficient, or it makes no 360 SKU sufficient.

How is my mind not made up? The premium IS sufficient for IPTV, on it's own. It's not sufficient for digital distribution of games and movies. Assuming 7 GB a game, the 360 would hold 17 games. Not bad. Like I said, we'll see what happens. But no, the 120 GB is not necessary for IPTV.

[Wolvie]

Any time you use a gaming forum as a means to gauge an opinion, you HAVE to remember, these are hardcore people, so the things they like may not be the same things everyone likes.
Just look at Ninja Gaiden(Xbox). Ask anyone on a message board and you'll likely get a huge positive reaction. Ask Joe Blow off the street, and he'll likely tell ya the game sucked cuz it was too hard.
If these "analysts" want real numbers, they need to set up random surveys.

[Kamalot]

Any time you use a gaming forum as a means to gauge an opinion, you HAVE to remember, these are hardcore people, so the things they like may not be the same things everyone likes.
Just look at Ninja Gaiden(Xbox). Ask anyone on a message board and you'll likely get a huge positive reaction. Ask Joe Blow off the street, and he'll likely tell ya the game sucked cuz it was too hard.
If these "analysts" want real numbers, they need to set up random surveys.
Unless the analysts were attempting to gauge the hardcore market.

I keep seeing this sentiment that, 'real numbers' can't be obtained from forums. That's just false. Real Numbers can be found everywhere. You just need to know what these numbers represent, and how useful they are.

[Sloth]

i'm gonna start my own Analysis Company called Retards with Opinions where all we do is form statistics based on feedback given by forum posters with the most recent signup date.

[Wolvie]

Unless the analysts were attempting to gauge the hardcore market.

I keep seeing this sentiment that, 'real numbers' can't be obtained from forums. That's just false. Real Numbers can be found everywhere. You just need to know what these numbers represent, and how useful they are.

True, but if you want a true cross-section of opinions, you can't just come to a site like EvAv to get it, since this place is 99% hardcore. A better place might be Yahoo chat, or something else that has a large base of users.

[Kamalot]

True, but if you want a true cross-section of opinions, you can't just come to a site like EvAv to get it, since this place is 99% hardcore. A better place might be Yahoo chat, or something else that has a large base of users.
True. I would hope that the analysts would be smart enough to understand the source of the numbers they are utilizing for their research, and know that Internet forums are not a good sample for a cross-section of all people who buy game systems. I don't know how the study was positioned, but I sure HOPE that the analysts aren't trying to pass off forum users as an average cross-section of all gamers.

I find it funnier that t he whole Evil Avatar post comes across as, "LOLZ Analysts are worthless cause they listen to people on FORUMS! Can you believe that! People who post on forums have nothing important to say! Anyone who bases anything off of what is said in forums is DUMB!"

That does not put a healthy light on EvilAvatar.

[KarmaGhost]

Do these numbers account for trolls and fanbois?

[Commissar Rob]

In a basic sense, a good focus group is a conversation on a particular topic by a group of people in a target market. If the researcher is interested in the opinions of those who are passionate about games, looking at internet forum posts wouldn't be a bad source at all. Plus it's certainly less expensive than using a dedicated focus group with costs associated with facilities, moderators, recruitment and such.

Now, can they say the Xbox Elite is doomed? No, but they can say that the current sentiment of the online gaming community is somewhat negative. Trolls and Fanbois should balance out, if not, as the case seems to be, then fewer fans are defending the product. A solid insight would be that Microsoft hasn't pleased a core audience - passionate gamers. Armed with that information, Microsoft might try some outreach, additional advertising, nifty trade-up programs...or completely ignore it and sell the damn thing out anyway.

But I don't think you should immediately dismiss using dedicated fan communities as a gauge of what position influential thinkers have on this sort of topic.

[Zeal]

::slaps forehead::

[ferrarimanf355]

I must know if they used GAF as one of their sources. If they do, then they are truly worthless. :)

[KingGorilla]

::slaps forehead::
:Slaps Zeal: