75 Million PS3s Sold by 2010

[fitbabits]

In what must be one of the boldest statements related to the success of the PS3, a new research paper by Research & Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/) predicts that the user base of Sony's behemoth will reach 75 million (!) by 2010 which, they predict, will see Sony taking the next generation crown.

You can read an abstract here (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reportinfo.asp?report_id=363050).

The PlayStation 3, Wii and Xbox 360, dubbed the next generation of consoles, each hold a unique position with regard to console offerings. While Sony and Microsoft aim towards increased functionality as a key driver for adoption, Nintendo look for innovative game play and the elusive fun factor.

The Sony PlayStation 3 is expected to win the console war in the long term with an install base of around 75 million globally by 2010. The console is not expected to dominate as much as its predecessor, the PS2, due to late launch issues in the PAL region and the early lead of Microsoft's Xbox 360.
Assuming Sony has already sold 1.2 million PS3s (which some people are suggesting), that only leaves 73.8 million to go before 2010 rolls around - an average of 24.6 million consoles per year. Or, if you prefer, 2.05 million consoles per month. Or, if you prefer, 512,000 consoles per week!

Can Sony even produce PS3s in that volumer?

[Kamalot]

Maybe they can't produce them in that number TODAY, but they'll ramp up production. By the time 2010 comes around, there'll be a PS3 in every Kelloggs cereal box!

PS3! They're Grrrrrreat!

[mkelehan]

They'll absolutely be able to produce that many, years down the line. As for their being able to sell that many, I disagree, and wonder what they base all this on. Do they think it's just the hardcore that are buying all the Wiis, and the casual gamers are waiting for more PS3s? Sounds a little back asswards.

[VTMarik]

My question is that how do they know there won't be a new generation between now and 2010?

It's gonna be hard to get to 75 million PS3s when the PS4 bumps it off the top of the totem pole.

[Grifter]

What they don't tell you is that of the 75 million PS3s sold there will only be around 25 million actual PS3 owners it's just that each of them will have had to buy the PS3 3 separate times due to faulty hardware, theft and their girlfriends stupid little brother who has no idea how to use a beer bong.

[GrinR]

PS3 graphics are going to look like shit in 2010, not that anyone cares considering how shitty the PS2 graphics have been since it launched and how it's selling MORE than the PS3.

Anyone who can figure this shit out could easily make a money machine like the DS or the Wii.

Oh wait.

[Schnoogs]

75 million????

Selling the 40 that have been collecting dust at the local frys would be a nice start!! ;)

I went in again today and the guy said that noone has touched a single one...the pile of PS3's was quite large.

[gspot]

I am stupified by this ridiculous estimate.

[magicka]

I would like to be one of the 75 mil some where down the road, but not before they drop the price tag by at least $300. I'm not holding my breath :)

[eth3rton]

No



The message you have entered is too short. Please lengthen your message to at least 10 characters.

[TheEpicOfTyler]

I think it's worth noting that it is not Sony making this claim.

[Schnoogs]

I think it's worth noting that it is not Sony making this claim.

I don't think they have a monopoly on idiotic statements! ;)

[Kamalot]

I don't think they have a monopoly on idiotic statements! ;)
If they did, I know quite a few Evil Avatar members that would be in trouble for violating Sony's monopoly.

[Amalor]

What you don't see is they will sell 10,000 units per week until the common fucking sense fairy comes around and they drop the price to a competitive level and some misc hacker creates a way to do something worth doing with they system (ie Free Tivo, Hack Directv or play all competitors software via perfect emulation) then they start doing some mad retail ;)

-Cheers
-Amalor

[Schnoogs]

If they did, I know quite a few Evil Avatar members that would be in trouble for violating Sony's monopoly.

I'd be the first to get sued ;)

[blackzc]

Na, thats only 3 years away. Its gonna take them 2 years to hit 15 million maybe 20.

(Nintendo look for innovative game play and the elusive fun factor.) lol elusive.

[KingGorilla]

I doubt Nintendo, Microsoft, and Sony COMBINED will sell 75 million by that time.

[Stormwatcher]

I don't know which is more stupid, the original article or the comment below.

My question is that how do they know there won't be a new generation between now and 2010?

It's gonna be hard to get to 75 million PS3s when the PS4 bumps it off the top of the totem pole.
Dude, we're 3 years away from 2010. There isn't a single chance that any new console is going to be released in the next fucking THREE years. Anyone KNOWS that there won't be another generation in this time frame.

Sony already said that the PS3 will last a loooooong while.

And 25 mil/year? that's preposterous, no matter how successful the PS3 is.

[Sloth]

I predict by 2010 I will have had sex with 75 Million and 1 women.

[LiveRatavar]

Maybe Aliens will buy them so they can destroy Giant Crabs with MASSIVE DAMAGE???????

[Schnoogs]

Pretending that there isn't any price drops that's $45,000,000,000!!!

[Stooby]

The only real information presented in this article is that "Research and Markets" is a terrible place to go for market research and predictions.

[RorschachCCCLX]

I've said it at least twelve million times here, Sony's brand name puts goggles on people. I have dudes come up to the PS3 Kiosk playing NBA 07 and they will scream and hop that it looks better then the 360 on the oppisite wall running NBA 2k7. its sort of the consumer version of beer goggles. People see playstation and assume its better.

[Camel]

When I first read this, the first thing I thought was, "Of course they'll sell that many by then, 2010 is like 8 years away!"

When I realized it was only three years away I was somewhat surprised (don't know why). 2010 seems like a year when everyone should be in flying cars or something.

[bskeillor]

This whole next gen analysis reminds me back in the day when Nintendo was number 1 after the SNES and Sega was a close second. The next generation was going to be won easily by Nintendo with the N64, or so they thought. Moral of their story was don't get too cocky. Just because your last two systems sold better than all of the competion doesn't mean your new one is going to win out. The only difference this time is that it is Sony the big giant, but with a far less pool of 1st party software to unleash on the next generation.

[Thenetcase]

ROFL
I seriously wonder if Sony is run by idiots. Except I already know that. Let me correct my statement.
I seriously wonder HOW LONG Sony CAN be run by IDIOTS...

75M consoles in the next 3 years?????? NO WAY. IMPOSSIBLE. That's insane!! We're not all going to magically become fabulously wealthy, Sony. Sorry, your console is doomed to mediocrity.

So why the sensational figures? They KNOW they can't sell that many. So... why claim they will? Free publicity while everyone mocks them?

Yeah... that must be it.
The Best Buy in my city has several PS3s and all the EB Games in the area have several as well.
Most stores still have a hard time keeping X360's on the shelf and they have NO LUCK keeping Wii's in stock anywhere.

Sony's fuxored.

-TNC-

[fitbabits]

When I first read this, the first thing I thought was, "Of course they'll sell that many by then, 2010 is like 8 years away!"

When I realized it was only three years away I was somewhat surprised (don't know why). 2010 seems like a year when everyone should be in flying cars or something.
My flying car is due to be finished no later than November 2009, so I'm all set. Bought and paid for with a grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (http://www.gatesfoundation.org/default.htm).

[fitbabits]

ROFL
I seriously wonder if Sony is run by idiots. Except I already know that. Let me correct my statement.
I seriously wonder HOW LONG Sony CAN be run by IDIOTS...

75M consoles in the next 3 years?????? NO WAY. IMPOSSIBLE. That's insane!! We're not all going to magically become fabulously wealthy, Sony. Sorry, your console is doomed to mediocrity.

So why the sensational figures? They KNOW they can't sell that many. So... why claim they will? Free publicity while everyone mocks them?

Yeah... that must be it.
The Best Buy in my city has several PS3s and all the EB Games in the area have several as well.
Most stores still have a hard time keeping X360's on the shelf and they have NO LUCK keeping Wii's in stock anywhere.

Sony's fuxored.

-TNC-
Um, so... You know the figures weren't quoted by Sony, right? By all accounts the market research quoted company is an independent entity.

[BenkeiHami]

Pretending that there isn't any price drops that's $45,000,000,000!!!

But if they're losing $120 - $300 on each unit that's -9,000,000,000 -- -22,500,000,000, pretending the components won't get cheaper. ;)

[LiveRatavar]

When I first read this, the first thing I thought was, "Of course they'll sell that many by then, 2010 is like 8 years away!"

When I realized it was only three years away I was somewhat surprised (don't know why). 2010 seems like a year when everyone should be in flying cars or something.


Did you just watch the Back to the Future marathon or something?

[Camel]

My flying car is due to be finished no later than November 2009, so I'm all set. Bought and paid for with a grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (http://www.gatesfoundation.org/default.htm).
Can...can I ride in it sometime?

Seriously though...I watched the Transformers animated movie a year or so ago, and when a little title on the screen said it took place in 2005 I had a massive brainfart and have not been able to comprehend time ever since.

Did you just watch the Back to the Future marathon or something?
I wish!!! Second best movie trilogy after Indiana Jones (which will no longer be a trilogy soon...). Maybe instead of flying cars I can just look forward to hover boards.

"McFly, you bojo! 'Dose boards don't work on water...

...UNLESS YOU GOT POW-AH!"

[emjoi]

*reaches into own ass. Pulls out a number*
Hey, it says 35 million.

And I did it for free.

[Hagetaka]

I, for one, welcome our random number generating overlords.

[Tentaro]

Why is useless industry analyst crap always on the front page?

[fitbabits]

Why is useless industry analyst crap always on the front page?
Because it's news!

[The Letter 3]

Why is useless industry analyst crap always on the front page?
www.cnn.com

Why is 75% of the stuff on the front page of this "news portal" crap? Let's face it, most "news" is crap.

[silv]

This is absurd. 75M by 2010? I highly doubt any of the next gen consoles will see that many sold by 2010. Maybe all TOGETHER.

[LexeL]

"...all the best stuff is made in japan"

[Midda]

"...all the best stuff is made in japan"
... Unbelievable!

[Loganrapp]

I see John Dvorak's been making friends.

[MasterKwan]

I'm, very happy with my PS3. "Fall of Man" was the kind of gaming experience I crave. I can't wait for the sequel. For me, it was better than GOW and as fun as Vegas. The perfect single player game which is all I have time for these days. I finished it before my 15 year old. I found it more satisfying than HL2 with it's shitty ending.

The only thing that would have made it better for me would have been if they added "Vegas" style duck and cover gameplay.

For me, the next generation console king's become somewhat ambiguous. I thought the 360 was it. Now I'm not so sure. I think 75 million's a stretch but, I expect it to be doing pretty well as soon as more games land. I go where the games are.

[megaman]

I think they have also included the non-gamers who would buy ps3 for its blueray ahahaha

[ToxicWaste]

That could be a typo. Are you sure it isn't 7.5 million?

[Phades]

I think they have also included the non-gamers who would buy ps3 for its blueray ahahaha

Umm.. that's a big part of why I want one. I have an HD-DVD player and am now a believer in the HD formats. I just wish there was a winner already :) Oh well, for now I'll have both.

[DaXIthR]

I'm, very happy with my PS3. "Fall of Man" was the kind of gaming experience I crave. I can't wait for the sequel. For me, it was better than GOW and as fun as Vegas. The perfect single player game which is all I have time for these days. I finished it before my 15 year old. I found it more satisfying than HL2 with it's shitty ending.

The only thing that would have made it better for me would have been if they added "Vegas" style duck and cover gameplay.

For me, the next generation console king's become somewhat ambiguous. I thought the 360 was it. Now I'm not so sure. I think 75 million's a stretch but, I expect it to be doing pretty well as soon as more games land. I go where the games are.

We have a winner.

I finally 'meet' someone who is completely satisfied with the PS3 as it is offered today. How's Ridge Racer 7, by the way?

[MasterKwan]

I only have FOM, the GT HD "Demo" and Motostorm "Demo". GT HD, as limited as it is, is pretty amazing. I'm not a real fan of unrealistic car games like RR. I prefer Forza and to a lesser extent GT. I'm thinking about playing FOM again. When you finish it the first time it has unlockable weapons. Also, throughout the game there are bonus points to earn similiar to Live "Achievement".

If FOM was available on the 360, I think it would be just as popular or more than GOW. The plot just drew me in. Every second of play, I was dreading the next encounter. You really feel like Man's on his last legs.

I've must say though that the Sony network kind of sucks after getting used to "Live".

I'm pretty shocked about my PS3 reaction too. I was sorely tempted to sell it before Christmas.

[tombofsoldier]

If you wanna hang out, you've got too...
Really though I just read this as a desperate cry for their investors not dump all their stock and run. Then again if I were an investor I would have sold off any Sony stock over a year ago.

Err, wait. Sony didn't say this? Is it Mike Jones back for revenge?

[Schnoogs]

We should make a list of the things we'll do if Sony actually manages to sell 75 million by 2010.

Along the lines of "If sony pulls this off I'll eat my hat while naked on a city bus and broadcast it live on YouTube"

[Major Dan]

2 words.

YEA, RIGHT! :D

[Wolvie]

One day the analysts say the PS3 will win, then the 360, then the Wii. I swear, it seems like these tools just take turns drawing names out of a hat. Next weeks next-gen winner, THE PSP!!!

/lame.

[rinichanraar]

I think they have also included the non-gamers who would buy ps3 for its blueray ahahaha

I think they also may have included people who WANT blu-ray players. :(

[Evil Avnovice]

Unless parts for the PS3 become amazingly cheaper to manufacture more computers in the next three years, no. :rolleyes:

[menage]

Pfff, analysts and researchers, don't even listen to them anymore. They just earn their money telling you what might happen. Oooh surprise, tomorrow it will be someone else with a totally differnt view. I'll stay in the here and now thank you.

[Vandenh]

Maybe they mean *shipped* :)

[RMan]

I predict that in 2010, I will still think nothing of Research & Markets opinions. You don’t have to hate Sony to see that these numbers are a bit crazy. They say they don’t expect it to dominate like the PS2, but to sell that many in that amount of time, it’d be selling considerably stronger than the PS2 did, right? While surely the market is growing, it isn’t growing that fast, and will be more fragmented than before. I hope whoever buys this information from them gets some free snake oil, or maybe a PS3, something useful.

[ElectricMonk]

I wish there was somebody who saved these crazy things so in 3 years we can look back on it.

Everybody always freaks when 'analysts' make predictions one way or the other but nobody ever remembers what they said 3 years later.

[WileE.Coyte]

I think they also may have included people who WANT blu-ray players. :(

I swear I think Sony is also taking other steps to push the format. A friend let me borrow Taladega Nights and I noticed it was a bit grainy. If you did a side by side of my SW 4,5,6 disc and WOTW the latter looks like dogshit compared to a much older movie. It's something I wouldn't put past Sony or the movie industry in general to push a new format.

[Johan]

I'm sickened and appalled by the cynical skepticism of so many of you! Everyone knows 75 million is a low-ball figure; we're probably looking at 100 million as more likely!

*vomits on self*

[phantomhitman]

i will call their 75 million units and raise them to 150 million units sold.
why...why not?

[bjornbarspingvinen]

you gotta love speculation about these numbers.... Most of the time they seem to be pulled out of someones ass.... like these numbers....

[tiremfej]

I'll be 37. That's really scary. I think I'm more afraid of that than the PS3 actually selling 75 million.

Honestly, if the console drops in price, and the BR-DVD and HD-DVD dust is settled by then, it quite possibly could sell close to that amount (given BR-DVD wins.) If the HD-DVD is all over the place and the 360 keeps stealing exclusives, I don't see it happening. The Wii (I'm sorry) by then will be realized as a one trick pony, who's graphics in three years will certainly be showing their age. Personally, I feel it's up to the format of choice, BR-DVD or HD-DVD, exclusives, and price. The format choice doesn't matter now but in the end it will.

[Kamalot]

The Wii (I'm sorry) by then will be realized as a one trick pony, who's graphics in three years will certainly be showing their age.Honestly, I used to think the same thing. Recently, I've changed my tune.

Wii ALREADY looks horrible! People aren't buying it with the expectation of it EVER looking good. People buy it because the games are fun. In fact, I think some Wii titles are intended to look 'bad' by design, so people focus on the gameplay.

My non-gamer friends are so into Wii Sports, GT-Pro and Rayman that it isn't even funny, and NONE of those games look as good as PS2 titles.

People don't buy systems on how good the graphics are, cause nobody would have purchased the PS2. Dreamcast looked better than PS2 for the first year. GameCube and Xbox looked better than PS2 after that. At no point was the PS2 ever a graphical powerhouse, but people purchased it for fun games.

Wii is in no danger of looking dated, cause it already does, and everyone still wants it.

[phantomhitman]

I do not think it is so much the lack of graphics but the new smell feel will wear off of the wii. People will play it and see it for what it is, a one trick pony. After everyone gets their first experiance with it it will slowly fade. Of course the Nintendo fans will continue to support it and there will the the same Nintendo games pushing sales but I just do not see what is so great about the wii. Unless you live in a dorm room.

[Kamalot]

I do not think it is so much the lack of graphics but the new smell feel will wear off of the wii. People will play it and see it for what it is, a one trick pony. After everyone gets their first experiance with it it will slowly fade. Of course the Nintendo fans will continue to support it and there will the the same Nintendo games pushing sales but I just do not see what is so great about the wii. Unless you live in a dorm room.
People still play real tennis, even though it is the same game, again and again. I'm positive that there are enough creative uses of a 3D controller to keep new games coming for Wii for the next 5 years.

But I suppose only time will tell.

[DangerousDaze]

People don't buy systems on how good the graphics are, cause nobody would have purchased the PS2. Dreamcast looked better than PS2 for the first year.
I found an interesting article (http://www.streettech.com/archives_gadget/DCvsPS2.html) comparing the Dreamcast to the PS2 that show some parallels with the current situation between the 360 and the PS3. You can almost read the article all the way through substituting the two platforms.

Some of key points from the article at the time of writing (Dec 21st 2000) were: The PS2 was twice as expensive as the Dreamcast
The DC had launched a year prior to the PS2
The DC was readily available but the PS2 was hard to find in the shops
Quote: "The PS2 is top of the heap specs-wise -- with the fastest processor out there -- but the Dreamcast has only gotten better since its release, and its strengths become even more evident when compared side by side with the PS2."
The PS2 launched with a poor selection of games but could play most of the PS1 back catalogue.
He tested games on DC vs PS2 and found no discernable difference in graphical quality or gameplay.
The author found the two platforms to be roughly equivalent in terms of power and potential but couldn't understand why the PS2 was twice the price of the DC.
A big selling point for the DC was its online capability which was far superior to the PS2's - quote: "Right out of the box, the Dreamcast not only acts like an Internet appliance capable of surfing the Web, but it's also capable of head-to-head online gaming."
Another telling quote: "I don't want to sound like a complete Dreamcast fanboy. The PS2 is definitely an awesome machine, and it too will have a great selection of games over the next year. I love mine, but I can't honestly say that I'd recommend it over Dreamcast. At the moment, the limited selection of titles that take advantage of PS2's graphics capabilities, the price difference, and the complete lack of online gaming make the Dreamcast the smarter choice in my book."
He, and many others, were convinced that the DC would beat the PS2 but we all know how that story ended. It could go the same way again.

[Kamalot]

I found an interesting article (http://www.streettech.com/archives_gadget/DCvsPS2.html) comparing the Dreamcast to the PS2 that show some parallels with the current situation between the 360 and the PS3. You can almost read the article all the way through substituting the two platforms.

Some of key points from the article at the time of writing (Dec 21st 2000) were: The PS2 was twice as expensive as the Dreamcast
The DC had launched a year prior to the PS2
The DC was readily available but the PS2 was hard to find in the shops
Quote: "The PS2 is top of the heap specs-wise -- with the fastest processor out there -- but the Dreamcast has only gotten better since its release, and its strengths become even more evident when compared side by side with the PS2."
The PS2 launched with a poor selection of games but could play most of the PS1 back catalogue.
He tested games on DC vs PS2 and found no discernable difference in graphical quality or gameplay.
The author found the two platforms to be roughly equivalent in terms of power and potential but couldn't understand why the PS2 was twice the price of the DC.
A big selling point for the DC was its online capability which was far superior to the PS2's - quote: "Right out of the box, the Dreamcast not only acts like an Internet appliance capable of surfing the Web, but it's also capable of head-to-head online gaming."
Another telling quote: "I don't want to sound like a complete Dreamcast fanboy. The PS2 is definitely an awesome machine, and it too will have a great selection of games over the next year. I love mine, but I can't honestly say that I'd recommend it over Dreamcast. At the moment, the limited selection of titles that take advantage of PS2's graphics capabilities, the price difference, and the complete lack of online gaming make the Dreamcast the smarter choice in my book."
He, and many others, were convinced that the DC would beat the PS2 but we all know how that story ended. It could go the same way again.
Yep. For the longest time I thought that the 360 would be 'Dreamcasted', killed by hype. I no longer believe that in the slightest, for a few key reasons...
PS3 is getting negative hype, lots of it. PS2 had nothing but positive hype in the mainstream press.

Dreamcast didn't have the 3rd party support necessary for a mainstream console. No EA Sports, no win. As such, it was relegated to a niche status among hardcore gamers. It wasn't ever a mainstream console.

Sega was on a string of failures from the Saturn, the Sega CD, the 32x, the Nomad, the Game Gear. Developers gave up on Sega.

PS2 launched alone. The other mainstream consoles, Xbox (an unknown factor) and GameCube (also coming off the N64 failure) were a year away. If developers wanted to make a game, they HAD to make it for PS2. It was the ONLY sure bet.

Sega was broke. Microsoft isn't.

I don't know if you remember 2000, but the mainstream hype surrounding the PS2 was reality-warping. Compare that to ANY of the mainstream PS3 press.

This time things are different. Microsoft is no longer an unknown factor. They are coming off the heels of the 2nd most popular console in the world. That's a success story. They have the development tools that the PS3 doesn't have. Developers were FORCED to learn to code for PS2 cause it was the only sure bet. This generation, PS3 ISN'T a sure bet AND it is more difficult to develop for.

Nintendo is riding the hype train that Sony enjoyed in 2000, the reality-distortion field of Wii has the mainstream wrapped around its finger.

This time, Sony does not have the luxury of poor competition, and they don't ave the luxury of time. On top of that, they seem to be trying to destroy their own company from the inside.

What this shows is that Sega got just about everything right with the Dreamcast. They were so close, but they didn't have the deep pockets necessary to push past the PS2 hype machine, which was AMAZING!

While there are a number of similarities between the PS2/Dreamcast when looking at the PS3/360, you also have to take into account the bigger picture. The battlefield is different. The opponents are different. The fickle weather of mainstream press is different. The supply line of 3rd party support is different.

The 360 won't be 'Dreamcasted'.

BTW, it is interesting to note that the Dreamcast only sold around 10 million consoles in its entire lifespan. The 360 is already close to breaking that figure in a little more than a year.

[DangerousDaze]

The 360 won't be 'Dreamcasted'.
Not suggesting for a minute that it will. I'm just pointing out that right now, at this point in time, no one can make any accurate predictions about the future. Not you, and not the analyst who made the statement that is the subject of this thread.

[fitbabits]

Not suggesting for a minute that it will. I'm just pointing out that right now, at this point in time, no one can make any accurate predictions about the future. Not you, and not the analyst who made the statement that is the subject of this thread.
And not you, either. There are similarities between the two scenarios you mention, but there are also some glaring inconsistencies as well. Kamalot did a fine job of pointing them out.

The gaming landscape has changed significantly since the time of the PS2 and Dreamcast battle. It would take something like Sony buying Electronic Arts and securing the EA Sports brand for Sony platforms only for the Xbox 360 to go the way of the Dreamcast. And I know for a fact that Sony are in no financial shape to even attempt such a deal.

[Kamalot]

The simple fact is that Microsoft has the pockets to keep the Xbox 360 afloat, even if they never sell another unit, which they won't have to do.

The 360 will not be Dreamcasted.

With the massive 3rd party support the 360 is getting, you can make a safe bet that the 360 will do quite well this generation.

[wezlypipz]

Maybe 40 million because it's a cheap Blue-ray alternative, but that guy's dreaming.

[vherub]

the ps3 might hit the 75 million target, but it requires a big leap of faith that some software will come along to drive sales. The ps2 was difficult to find for a very, very long time after launch, while the ps3 is now fairly easy to find and even available online without bundles. The reason may be price, but it probably has a lot to do with few must own titles.
On the flipside, the wii has the potential to make videogames as everpresent as the vcr or dvd player. it is a killer across all demagraphics- which is exactly what videogames need. Rather than consoles getting into 40% of american homes, the wii could get into 70% of homes- the potential is shockingly high. When people who have had zero or negative interest in videogames, suddenly want to play a system- the results could be something gaming has yet to see.

[silv]

I found an interesting article (http://www.streettech.com/archives_gadget/DCvsPS2.html) comparing the Dreamcast to the PS2 that show some parallels with the current situation between the 360 and the PS3. You can almost read the article all the way through substituting the two platforms.

Some of key points from the article at the time of writing (Dec 21st 2000) were:



The PS2 was twice as expensive as the Dreamcast
The DC had launched a year prior to the PS2
The DC was readily available but the PS2 was hard to find in the shops
Quote: "The PS2 is top of the heap specs-wise -- with the fastest processor out there -- but the Dreamcast has only gotten better since its release, and its strengths become even more evident when compared side by side with the PS2."
The PS2 launched with a poor selection of games but could play most of the PS1 back catalogue.
He tested games on DC vs PS2 and found no discernable difference in graphical quality or gameplay.
The author found the two platforms to be roughly equivalent in terms of power and potential but couldn't understand why the PS2 was twice the price of the DC.
A big selling point for the DC was its online capability which was far superior to the PS2's - quote: "Right out of the box, the Dreamcast not only acts like an Internet appliance capable of surfing the Web, but it's also capable of head-to-head online gaming."
Another telling quote: "I don't want to sound like a complete Dreamcast fanboy. The PS2 is definitely an awesome machine, and it too will have a great selection of games over the next year. I love mine, but I can't honestly say that I'd recommend it over Dreamcast. At the moment, the limited selection of titles that take advantage of PS2's graphics capabilities, the price difference, and the complete lack of online gaming make the Dreamcast the smarter choice in my book."
He, and many others, were convinced that the DC would beat the PS2 but we all know how that story ended. It could go the same way again.



BestBuy has had PS3's on sale today for most of the day. It's been hours and they still have stock left in their 'extremely limited' supply. Amazon.com's Wii shipment sold out in one minute.

I went around today trying to locate a Wii to a variety of stores (Best Buy, Target, Walmart) ALL of them had PS3 60gb's sitting on the shelves. None had a Wii.

PS3 is doing abysmally poor selling. The consoles simply aren't moving. How does this equate to the PS3 'dreamcasting' the 360. Especially given that the 360 has a far better software line-up now, and for the 2007 year.

I sometimes wonder what planet these analysts are on.

[Phanto]

"...all the best stuff is made in japan"

Yeah and most of the more nitwits too ;).



With the current price on the PS3 I doubt they will sell 75 millions by that time.
Even if they make price drops by 2010 I doubt the price will drop to $299.
Right now Sony is in a tough situation they need to sell consoles and games to start trying to make some money, right now there are no really good games out there besides Resistance. Even if they drop price to a considerable level in which people start buying consoles they will keep losing more money but like people have said they "will recover that from softwares sales " we will have to wait and see what happen in these 3 years.

[lewsid]

Garbage. I absolutely think Sony's position in the gaming world is near the end of its reign.

The PS3 is already a bloated, over-hyped and partially obsolete console. I have serious doubts that its situation will improve in the face of tougher competition and its own poor management and atrocious marketing on the part of Sony.

[Magnanimous Gnome]

I predict by 2010 I will have had sex with 75 Million and 1 women.


75 million what? :D


I can't believe no one else caught that. ;)




I don't know which is more stupid, the original article or the comment below.


Dude, we're 3 years away from 2010. There isn't a single chance that any new console is going to be released in the next fucking THREE years. Anyone KNOWS that there won't be another generation in this time frame.

Sony already said that the PS3 will last a loooooong while.

And 25 mil/year? that's preposterous, no matter how successful the PS3 is.



Well there is a chance that there will be a new Xbox by then. The last one last four years, and if the 360 shared the same "fate" it would be put out to pasture in 2009.

[Nimh]

I also have to wonder at how publishers are feeling about the PS3. If the consoles don't appear to be selling as well as expected, how can a publisher right now feel comfortable releasing or developing a game in the majority of 2007 for the PS3, when the probability of simply breaking even is questionable...

[mrbandersnatch]

Im suprised at just how bad that analysis is - they certainly cant have based their conclusion past trends, they cant have based it on current trends. I suspect they were told to publish that figure in order to appease either Sony shareholders or, more likely, upper management.

Anyways, Sony have made SO MANY mistakes this time around if they hit 25 mill by 2010 Ill be suprised. The HD game is going to MS in the EU and US. The Wii is going to do well all round (probably #1 in Japan) and the only territory Sony have a chance in now is Japan...and even there I dont think they are going to manage to emulate the PS2s success.

Its a tad early to call it yet, well see come Christmas 2008 for sure and possibly as early as the tail ed of this year.

[Phades]

Sony can have their 75 million sold. Remember, the Xbox 360 is going to break 1 billion ;)

[LexeL]

Yeah and most of the more nitwits too ;).



we have our share as well!

[Major Dan]

Laugh at this. Hell Wii is just about to hit 50 million. Wanted to dredge up some old stuff.

[DarkDaY]

lol, nice move. And would you look at all the colorful names!!!

[Johan]

lol, nice move. And would you look at all the colorful names!!!

A blast from the past!

Nice predictions, too...analysts are awesome!

[ResistanceAddict]

What they don't tell you is that of the 75 million PS3s sold there will only be around 25 million actual PS3 owners it's just that each of them will have had to buy the PS3 3 separate times due to faulty hardware, theft and their girlfriends stupid little brother who has no idea how to use a beer bong.

PS3 graphics are going to look like shit in 2010, not that anyone cares considering how shitty the PS2 graphics have been since it launched and how it's selling MORE than the PS3.

Anyone who can figure this shit out could easily make a money machine like the DS or the Wii.

Oh wait.

WOW. I never that that 5 posts in I'd see more idiocy/ignorance than the article. GREAT posts, guys :rolleyes:

As far as the article, I love the PS3 and have no problem with it. Sony would probably be in so much better shape if they wouldn't make dumb decisions and claims. I'm surprised this claim isn't by Sony themselves. It's about as bold and unrealistic as anything I've ever read.

[lost]

We should dig up old predictions more often. Develop some sort of database.

[Zeal]

if sony sold a few million consoles A DAY, that would still not be MATHMATICALLY possibly by 2010.

why is everyone stupid.

[lost]

Just making sure that everybody is fully aware that this is a VERY VERY OLD ARTICLE and not something new.

[Johan]

if sony sold a few million consoles A DAY, that would still not be MATHMATICALLY possibly by 2010.

why is everyone stupid.

I hate to be the one to break it to you, but if they sold a few million "A DAY" then they would make it within a month, since they've already sold a number of millions, and 30 days at two million a day would be 60 million more sold.

A month would be before 2010, on my calendar. ;)

Just making sure that everybody is fully aware that this is a VERY VERY OLD ARTICLE and not something new.

It's like a scene from Mulan, with all the ancestor guardian spirits...:D

[Zeal]

I hate to be the one to break it to you, but if they sold a few million "A DAY" then they would make it within a month, since they've already sold a number of millions, and 30 days at two million a day would be 60 million more sold.

A month would be before 2010, on my calendar. ;)



It's like a scene from Mulan, with all the ancestor guardian spirits...:D

you forgot to carry your 1 and divide by suck. oh and round out the equation at the end of killzone 2 sucking monkey butt....mr. ZOHAN

http://msnbcmedia4.msn.com/j/msnbc/Components/Video/_NEW/mov_movie_zohan_080209.300w.jpg

[Johan]

you forgot to carry your 1 and divide by suck.

Now that I've done that, I do see how it works. My apologies! :D

:runs from the Zohan:

[JimmyDanger]

I loves me some thread necro.

Face it though - 750k copies of Killzone 2 sold in its first week - that means it's only reached about %1 of the 2010 total installed user base. Big sales ahead!

I'd be surprised if the PS3 breaks 30 million by Jan2010.

[ResistanceAddict]

you forgot to carry your 1 and divide by suck. oh and round out the equation at the end of killzone 2 sucking monkey butt....mr. ZOHAN

http://msnbcmedia4.msn.com/j/msnbc/Components/Video/_NEW/mov_movie_zohan_080209.300w.jpg

Wow. Don't know whether to insult you, laugh or scratch my head...

[Virtuoso]

you forgot to carry your 1 and divide by suck. oh and round out the equation at the end of killzone 2 sucking monkey butt....mr. ZOHAN

I'm sure you are fully qualified to determine the quality of KZ2, since you bought it day one and played it on your PS3 and what not.

Is it true you burst into flames when you touch a DualShock 3?

[TeeCakes]

Maybe the OP meant 75 million PS3 software titles?!

I wonder where the heck I was back when this thread was new, but luckily I didn't post anything incriminating to in support of the outrageous 75M hardware sales by 2010 claim. Silly analysts are silly.

[Anenome]

This = LOL
^____^

[Verruckt]

It was a typo, he meant 2011. 2010 is the year of the PS3 I hear, should be doable.

[Anenome]

75 million????

Selling the 40 that have been collecting dust at the local frys would be a nice start!! ;)

I went in again today and the guy said that noone has touched a single one...the pile of PS3's was quite large.

Lol, well here it is 2010, and they've sold less than half that many worldwide :P

[Anenome]

I doubt Nintendo, Microsoft, and Sony COMBINED will sell 75 million by that time.
Wii's sold what, over 110 million now? Lol.

[Anenome]

It was a typo, he meant 2011. 2010 is the year of the PS3 I hear, should be doable.
ROFL, we shall call you "Mini Tea&cakes" :P You think they're gonna sell more in 2010 than they did since launch? <_<

[blackzc]

GT5 will sell about 10 million, maybe more.

[Anenome]

PS3's been selling an overall average of just under 10 million / year. So, if they only sell 10 million next year, as you say, it's not a boost at all, it's par for the course, business as usual. If you think GT5 will sell 10 mill consoles purely on its own merits, I think you're kidding yourself :P Maybe if it were a famous FPS game, but racing isn't -that- huge a genre. Personally I often find games that shoot for extreme realism to be extremely droll.

[Meusli]

ROFL, we shall call you "Mini Tea&cakes" :P You think they're gonna sell more in 2010 than they did since launch? <_<

It's a throw back to when everyone kept saying that next year is the year of the PS3, that never really happened like everyone thought it would.

[WileE.Coyte]

Aneome, I hope you were wearing a mask when you pried the lid off.

[Anenome]

The thread did smell rather moldy when I opened it, I think Modeps left it out in the rain a few weeks :P

[donkeydrop]

Little premature with the revival; the prediction is by the end of 2010 not the start

[Anenome]

Little premature with the revival; the prediction is by the end of 2010 not the start
So you think Sony can sell more PS3's this year than it has in the previous 3 years combined?

Are you also assuming some act of God occurring? Is Zeus striking down MS and Nintendo in your imagined scenario of how this happens?

And, assuming that happened, can Sony magically ramp up PS3 production?

It's impossible people, not gonna happen. It was a silly prediction predicated on the idea that the PS3 was going to be as dominant as the PS2.

[Major Dan]

Yep, NOT GONNA HAPPEN!

[Johan]

It's impossible people, not gonna happen.

O Rly? (http://solosong.net/wish.html) .

[Anenome]

O Rly? (http://solosong.net/wish.html) .
Well, Teac&cakes better break out his telescope quick and start praying :P

[donkeydrop]

So you think Sony can sell more PS3's this year than it has in the previous 3 years combined?


Did I say that? Just pointing out that some people are calendar challenged.

As far as PS3 sales, by end of 2010 I do think they will have outsold SNES, N64, GC, any Sega console, so by past history it will be a failure only in comparison to the excessive expectations created by PS1 and PS2.

[Johan]

...so by past history it will be a failure only in comparison to the excessive expectations created by PS1 and PS2.

I for one commend them for turning a commanding 70%+ industry market share last generation into less than a third. Remember...this gen. doesn't start until they say it does. :D

[FergatROn]

Ha-ha. Well, I'll be in the numbers for 2010. I'm finally getting a next-gen system within the first quarter of 2010! Things are looking up!

[oldjadedgamer]

They aren't even making 120 gigs to sell!

[Anenome]

Did I say that? Just pointing out that some people are calendar challenged.

As far as PS3 sales, by end of 2010 I do think they will have outsold SNES, N64, GC, any Sega console, so by past history it will be a failure only in comparison to the excessive expectations created by PS1 and PS2.

What are you, a Tea&cakes alt? Stop choosing a favorable metric just to look good, it's sad. Gaming is much bigger now than it was then. By every metric that matters, the PS3 is a business failure.

They squandered market momentum, were incredibly arrogant, said insane things, took risks in the wrong areas, alienated developers, launched late, incorporated premature and therefore expensive hardware, and on top of all that will not make a dime of profit on the PS3. If it wasn't Sony's name on the label, we'd all assume the PS3 was some kind of investor Ponzi scam :P
*coughphantomcough*

I'm sure Kutaragi tried that when they fired him, "But, it's selling better than the SNES!"

Sony: "...Get out, idiot."

[the soUL TRAder]

It was all a typo, they meant by 3010.

They might finally be selling the unit at a profit by then, not to mention, have more than one software title in the top 20 each month.