Xbox 360 Picked as Winner of Next Gen Battle Through 2011

[fitbabits]

Gamasutra (http://www.gamasutra.com) is reporting that Japanese market analysts at financial firm Merrill Lynch have predicted that Microsoft's Xbox 360 will top the next generation battle through 2011.

You can read more here (http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=11718).

According to an International Business Times report citing Yoshiyuki Kinoshita, research analyst for Merrill Lynch, the Tokyo-based division for the financial giant has predicted: "The winner in the next-generation console battle is likely to be the Xbox 360, which is the leader in North America, the world’s biggest market."

In addition, Kinoshita's research note revealed: "We forecast respective market shares [in March 2011] of Xbox 360 [at] 39 percent, PS3 [at] 34 percent and Wii [at] 27 percent, thus overturning Sony’s domination of the market with its PS2-based share of 69 percent, and doubling Microsoft and Nintendo’s respective market shares."
Wait until tomorrow when some other analyst will predict Sony winning. That being said, it's startling to me how much confidence Microsoft have instilled in their Xbox brand, especially in such a comparatively short period.

[Heretic Machine]

I pick the winner as the first company to fully integrate porn into their console. I think the PS3 and Wii have the 360 one-upped there, so MS needs to get on the ball.

/analysis

[absolut taco]

2011??? MS will definitely have a new console out by then!

[PXG 360]

I mean, at first I thought it would be Sony, purely based on the fact that thier brand name would sell the PS3 in the long run, regardless of Sony's horrible reputation at the moment. I believed that the Wii and 360 would be at a close second place (360 then Wii). However, because there is more Sony hate than I originally thought there was (and it doesn't seem like it will be going away anytime soon), then I...I can't believe I am saying this....but the Xbox 360 (hell, even the Wii) has a shot at winning the console war.

At the moment, every console has a shot. No one should count out any of the three. But, at the moment, it seems that "big bad" Microsoft has the upper hand (aka, they have the least problems and ill reputations to deal with at the moment).

[Kamalot]

I pick the winner as the first company to fully integrate porn into their console. I think the PS3 and Wii have the 360 one-upped there, so MS needs to get on the ball.

/analysis
Well, Sony could have had it with the previous PS3 controller, the Double-Ended Dildorang (tm). As it stands now, only one console encourages you to play with your Wii.

On a more serious note, this is rather odd to see a Japanese company predicting Microsoft taking the console market this generation. By the time 2011 comes around, we'll be in the middle of a next-gen war.

[Gorvi]

Great, another analyst thread. Really, do we like our wild speculation that much?

Hold on, I think I'll be an analyst for a second : Ford will sell the most cars in the US, Burger King will be the most popular fast food place, and the Texans will win the Super Bowl, all by 2011. How do I know? Because I'm an analyst!

[Kamalot]

Analysts as a whole have a much better track record for predicting the future than the marketing departments of Sony, Microsoft or Nintnedo.

Listen to the analysts.

[fitbabits]

Great, another analyst thread. Really, do we like our wild speculation that much?

Hold on, I think I'll be an analyst for a second : Ford will sell the most cars in the US, Burger King will be the most popular fast food place, and the Texans will win the Super Bowl, all by 2011. How do I know? Because I'm an analyst!
Difference being analysts usually have a fuckload of facts and figures to back up their claims. Where are your facts and figures?

[PXG 360]

Great, another analyst thread. Really, do we like our wild speculation that much?

Hold on, I think I'll be an analyst for a second : Ford will sell the most cars in the US, Burger King will be the most popular fast food place, and the Texans will win the Super Bowl, all by 2011. How do I know? Because I'm an analyst!

You make a good point. These "so-called" analyst really don't know shit. Most of the time, they're wrong, just like meteorologists!

[Heretic Machine]

Difference being analysts usually have a fuckload of facts and figures to back up their claims. Where are your facts and figures?

Analysts have their dick in one hand, and their rectum mounted on the other. They have no idea what is going on, and are wrong way more often than they are right.

[Metalhaze]

Considering MS is already working on the next X-Box....I don't see how this claim can be true.....Fuck these stupid analysts

[JazGalaxy]

I honestly think Sony is done for. They've mishandled this thing so badly it's mind boggling.

They have said that they will not put out another console for 10 years. Financially that seems to be where they're at.

The fact that Nintendo will likely put out another console in 5 years (or less) that will be as powerful or more powerful than the PS3, and will likely expand on the features that the Wii and DS now supprot, seems to spell doom for sony in my opinion.

[Heretic Machine]

Considering MS is already working on the next X-Box....

Just so you know, Nintendo is working on the follow up to the DS as well as a successor for the Wii, and Sony is working on the PS4 as well as their next move in the handheld market.

[Gorvi]

Difference being analysts usually have a fuckload of facts and figures to back up their claims. Where are your facts and figures?

I don't normally provide facts and figures to back up sarcasm. My point is, this is a guess and nothing more. I don't care if they do this by looking at a fuckload of facts and figures, it still boils down to a guess. Have these analysts played all the games that will be released for the 3 major consoles in the next 5 years?

[Heretic Machine]

I honestly think Sony is done for. They've mishandled this thing so badly it's mind boggling.

They have said that they will not put out another console for 10 years. Financially that seems to be where they're at.

The fact that Nintendo will likely put out another console in 5 years (or less) that will be as powerful or more powerful than the PS3, and will likely expand on the features that the Wii and DS now supprot, seems to spell doom for sony in my opinion.

I wonder if smaller life spans with proportionally smaller prices is preferable to larger life spans, with larger prices? I mean you are right, the next Nintendo console will come out about halfway through this generation, it'll still be cheaper than either of these are right now, and it'll probably be more powreful at the time. That is something interesting to think about.

[Johan]

Well...I don't need an analyst to tell me who is winning right now! ;)

Say it with me now...THREE-SIX-TEEEEEEEEEEEE! ;)

That may change in a few years, but anybody who expects what happened last generation to repeat itself (Sony with two-thirds of the market) is seriously high and needs to share their stash, since it's apparently quite effective. :)

[digitalErich]

How long has America been the biggest console market? When did we take this over from Japan?

[Johan]

How long has America been the biggest console market? When did we take this over from Japan?

I don't know how long, but I can say from a statistical standpoint, we have three Americans for every one Japanese consumer...our population is triple theirs, and our GDP is 2.5 times theirs.

It makes sense.

[fitbabits]

How long has America been the biggest console market? When did we take this over from Japan?
A while ago, actually.

[Heretic Machine]

Well, I can tell you this... we bought about three times as many copies of Super Mario 64 than they did. If that is any indicator, we have been the biggest market for quite a long while.

[51|RandoM]

Nobody is mentioning the obvious flaw in their analysis.

Take a look at the marketshare numbers, they add up to 100%, implying that each person/household in that market will only buy one console.

[Syrinx]

Nobody is mentioning the obvious flaw in their analysis.

Take a look at the marketshare numbers, they add up to 100%, implying that each person/household in that market will only buy one console.

Or you take the total number of consoles sold and determine your percentage off of that.

[krackmonkey]

Analysts have their dick in one hand, and their rectum mounted on the other. They have no idea what is going on, and are wrong way more often than they are right.

I thought you said "people who post on the internet" instead of "analysts", and I was about to agree with you 100%

Tell you what, go edit your post and we'll be in agreeance.

[51|RandoM]

Or you take the total number of consoles sold and determine your percentage off of that.

Ah, maybe that is what they're doing. oops.

[Rook34]

A while ago, actually.

Then why do they constantly have games releasing in Japan first, still? I shouldn't complain too much, they get the vrappy versions and ours get repaired in that time period. Example: FF7 Dirge of Cerberus.


Hold on, I think I'll be an analyst for a second :Burger King will be the most popular fast food place...

I'll add to that: Burger King will find a runaway success with Sneak King, spawning several sequels usually only bought as gag gifts or crappy consolation prizes for LAN parties, or to give to someone you really don't like; regardless it will sell like shit to a dung beetle.

[Shifteh]

Difference being analysts usually have a fuckload of facts and figures to back up their claims. Where are your facts and figures?
Where are there's? They just say "The 360 will win." No-where does it say why, how, etc.

They sure have that when though!

Not only that, but how do you determine who the 'winner' is? Profit? Then the 360 sure as hell isn't winning. Average review score? Amount of sheer consoles sold? Amount of consoles sold in a set time period?

This is a completely useless prediction from analysts who bring nothing to the table to back up their claims.

[fitbabits]

Where are there's? They just say "The 360 will win." No-where does it say why, how, etc.

They sure have that when though!

Not only that, but how do you determine who the 'winner' is? Profit? Then the 360 sure as hell isn't winning. Average review score? Amount of sheer consoles sold? Amount of consoles sold in a set time period?

This is a completely useless prediction from analysts who bring nothing to the table to back up their claims.
I'm not about to pay x-amount of dollars just to prove a point.

The way these reports normally work is that the summaries are made available but the method, etc. for reaching the conclusion is only available to those people who are willing to pony up the dough. Check the following, for example:

Forrester Research Claims US is Biggest Market for Video Games (http://www.forrester.com/Research/Document/Excerpt/0,7211,38820,00.html).

The US is the largest market for video games, worth some $10.5 billion in 2005. Almost half of US households own and play games on a PC, game console, or portable game player. But the video gaming industry is in the throes of a midlife crisis — facing aging consoles, layoffs, slower growth, and a disgruntled customer base. The industry is responding with major equipment upgrades, online gaming, new titles to reach non-gamers, and ad-supported online and console gaming.

[Vandenh]

Europe will be an even bigger market soon... (actually also bigger than Japan right now).

I would be surprised if the 360 doesn't beat the PS3 in the USA.

[Rafer]

Nobody is mentioning the obvious flaw in their analysis.

Take a look at the marketshare numbers, they add up to 100%, implying that each person/household in that market will only buy one console.

Yeah that's true. I saw an interesting poll on neogaf a few months back where they asked which of the seven combinations of three consoles people where going to own, the distribution worked out to roughly: 360 32%, PS3 24%, Wii 43%. But if you wanted to know the penetration it worked out to 56% would own a 360, 46% would own a PS3, and 81% would own a Wii.

Sounds plausible for the U.S., but who knows.

[Gorvi]

Something else to consider : if market analysis is so accurate, why is it so many people still lose everything on the stock market?

[fitbabits]

How long has America been the biggest console market? When did we take this over from Japan?
The US is the largest market for video games, worth some $10.5 billion in 2005. Almost half of US households own and play games on a PC, game console, or portable game player. But the video gaming industry is in the throes of a midlife crisis — facing aging consoles, layoffs, slower growth, and a disgruntled customer base. The industry is responding with major equipment upgrades, online gaming, new titles to reach non-gamers, and ad-supported online and console gaming.
Source - Forrester Research (http://www.forrester.com/Research/Document/Excerpt/0,7211,38820,00.html).

[Vandenh]

>if market analysis is so accurate, why is it so many people still lose everything on the stock market?

>Take a look at the marketshare numbers, they add up to 100%

Please... study a few year more and then come back. Well I guess everybody can have a "cool" opinion on the internet. Meanwhile in the real world, real people who lead software companies are reading these reports. I also hope they think analysts are TEH SUCK.

[Gorvi]

>if market analysis is so accurate, why is it so many people still lose everything on the stock market?

>Take a look at the marketshare numbers, they add up to 100%

Please... study a few year more and then come back. Well I guess everybody can have a "cool" opinion on the internet. Meanwhile in the real world, real people who lead software companies are reading these reports. I also hope they think analists are TEH SUCK.

So you're trying to tell me that this is all an exact science taken as gospel by those 'in the know'? A little naive, don't you think? While real people in those software companies are reading these reports, they also know enough to take them with a grain of salt.

[Vandenh]

I am sure Gorvi they prefer reading fanboy ravings on the Internet.



NOT!



What else are they gonna base their opinions on? Maybe you should send them an email explaining them what console you would pick. Or maybe throwing some sticks on the floor and reading those would do the trick?

And stock market values have nothing to do with this. MS could "win" the console war and go down in value. You need to think before you write rubbish like that please.

[Gorvi]

I am sure Gorvi they prefer reading fanboy ravings on the Internet.



NOT!



What else are they gonna base their opinions on? Maybe you should send them an email explaining them what console you would pick. Or maybe throwing some sticks on the floor and reading those would do the trick?

And stock market values have nothing to do with this. MS could "win" the console war and go down in value. You need to think before you write rubbish like that please.

How exactly is what I'm saying a fanboy raving? I'm the last person you want to say is a fanboy, I've owned all 3 consoles this generation, and I will the next. Shit, the only reason I'm buying a PS3 as my first 'next gen' console is the promise of the PS3 being the home to Final Fantasy, nothing more. Hell, I'm not saying I think they're wrong or right, just that it's only a guess and you can't put that much weight into it. Too many people will read this news post as fact and blow it way out of proportion.

Also, I never said this has a damn thing to do with anyone's stock market value. Why not read the fucking post before coming off as an all knowing jackass, hmm?

[Mashidar]

Myself I figured the US became a more important market when they decided on the starting PS3 shipments. I mean if Japan is as important as everyone makes it out to be, I would of figured they would of had more than the 80,000 units to start with and that's down from 100,000. Instead North America gets an assumed 400,000 units to start with and they have not came out with there cut yet, but i'm sure there will be a cut to a degree.

To me that there just said that it's more important to push the PS3 in North America than in Japan.

[civil_dead]

Analysts as a whole have a much better track record for predicting the future than the marketing departments of Sony, Microsoft or Nintnedo.
*cough*orforumposters*cough*

[thegameguru]

(since I personally know a few guys at Goldman and ML)

Lets see..

Guys who make $185K+ a year.. work 70+ hour weeks.. pour over extensive industry research and data.. talk to all sorts of industry people.. spend weeks of time and effort developing models..

Forum dweeb who may or may not still live with his parents and spends 70+ hours a week watching porn..

hmm..

[51|RandoM]

Something else to consider : if market analysis is so accurate, why is it so many people still lose everything on the stock market?

Nowadays, instead of owning stock because of dividend earnings, you own stock on the buy low/sell high type of system... which means people have to be losing for other people to be winning.

[Kelegacy]

Honest prediction: The PS3 will do worse than the other two systems and Microsoft will win this generation. Price will be a factor, and since most of the same games can be found on the 360 for a smaller console price tag, there will be little reason to own both consoles. The Wii will enjoy an independent success (i.e.: like comparing the DS to the Xbox, they aren't in the same competitive field) and developers will go to the system to create less expensive games (while still charging us 60 bucks for them).

Now if only those fuckers would stop the idiot microtransaction bullshit on Live I'd be very happy. Oh, and lower games back down to 50 bucks.

[Gorvi]

Nowadays, instead of owning stock because of dividend earnings, you own stock on the buy low/sell high type of system... which means people have to be losing for other people to be winning.

To a certian extent, yes. But buying stock is a gamble regardless and some things can't be predicted. Even in a buy low sell high situation, buying low when you believe a company will be on the upswing and selling when you think it's safe to sell to get out of it nets no real 'loser' unless said company actually does begin to lose money. Things like Sony's latest battery fiasco will be a contributer to a stock dropping (as well as their other missteps, I'm only using this as an example) and it's something that no analyst could predict.

My entire point by posting in this thread regarding analysts was not to say I'm picking one side or another as far as which console will be the top seller or who will 'win'. Hell, if I had to pick a financial winner, it wouldn't be Sony or Microsoft, it'd be Nintendo with their out of the box profit on the Wii and continued success with the DS. My point was that you need to not take what an analyst will say as absolute fact and realise that it's only their best guess as to how things will play out in a certian area of the market. They can be right just as easily as they can be wrong, and that information should be treated as such.

[Vandenh]

>How exactly is what I'm saying a fanboy raving?

I was not saying you were... just saying that company decision makers (who usually are not technical/gamers and/or software people) have to base their decision on something. The support of software companies is usually what "wins" the console race. So they have a choice... fanboys or analysts. 99% of the time they will listen to analysts, who at least have a much higher chance of being right. Nobody ever said they could predict the future... but they drive the decisions in the industry.

[Meatgortex]

North America has always been the biggest videogame market. Japan is just xenophobic and likes to put out titles for it's own consumers first. The one exception to this is the DS which has become a mass market device in Japan an hasn't hit that in the other territories yet.

HARDWARE in millions
Region Japan America Europe/Other
PSP 4.7 6.39 5.94
DS 6.91 5.11 4.71
GC 4 12.17 4.68
GBA 16.55 38.1 20.48
PS2 23.27 41.82 38.6
N64 5.54 20.63 6.75
PS 21.59 40.78 40.12
SNES 17.17 23.35 8.58
GB 32.47 44.06 42.16
NES 19.35 34 8.56

SOFTWARE in millions
Region Japan America Europe/Other
PSP 10 22 15.3
DS 25.3 20.8 14.3
GC 27 121.6 40.5
GBA 69.8 182.6 75.3
PS2 204 477 366
N64 39.7 142.1 43.2
PS 286 372 303
SNES 194.8 135 49.2
GB 157 190.6 153.3
NES 225.9 230.8 43.3

The only way in which Japan is the leader is in money spent per capita. There are only ~125m Japanese vs. ~330m US + Canadians.

[Rafer]

(since I personally know a few guys at Goldman and ML)

Lets see..

Guys who make $185K+ a year.. work 70+ hour weeks.. pour over extensive industry research and data.. talk to all sorts of industry people.. spend weeks of time and effort developing models..

Forum dweeb who may or may not still live with his parents and spends 70+ hours a week watching porn..

hmm..

Hmm, you know the Merrill Lynch guys that recommended Enron? I kid, I kid...

[Kamalot]

My point was that you need to not take what an analyst will say as absolute fact and realise that it's only their best guess as to how things will play out in a certian area of the market. They can be right just as easily as they can be wrong, and that information should be treated as such.Actually, that's not the point you made earlier. You called the analysts' report, "wild speculation", not a "best guess." You then went on to make your own wild claims, insinuating that your own wild speculation is as worthwhile as any analyst's.

Great, another analyst thread. Really, do we like our wild speculation that much?

Hold on, I think I'll be an analyst for a second : Ford will sell the most cars in the US, Burger King will be the most popular fast food place, and the Texans will win the Super Bowl, all by 2011. How do I know? Because I'm an analyst!
There is a huge difference between an estimate and wild speculation. If you were trying to get across the point that analysts make the best guesses they can with the vast information available to them, there may be a better approach that does not involve sarcasm full of contempt.

[Gorvi]

Actually, that's not the point you made earlier. You called the analysts' report, "wild speculation", not a "best guess." You then went on to make your own wild claims, insinuating that your own wild speculation is as worthwhile as any analyst's.


There is a huge difference between an estimate and wild speculation. If you were trying to get across the point that analysts make the best guesses they can with the vast information available to them, there may be a better approach that does not involve sarcasm full of contempt.

I did very badly word what I was trying to say earlier to the point where it needed clarifacation later on. The contempt, however, comes from people in threads like this one that will take that analyst report and parrot it back as a hard fact, ignoring that it's not.

[Kamalot]

I did very badly word what I was trying to say earlier to the point where it needed clarifacation later on. The contempt, however, comes from people in threads like this one that will take that analyst report and parrot it back as a hard fact, ignoring that it's not.
Perhaps in the past people have taken analyst reports as gospel, but I didn't see any such attitude towards this report prior to your first post.

I would believe analyst reports before I believe the marketing division of any of the game companies. Analysts have called Sony's prior delays, setbacks and cutbacks, sometimes weeks or months in advance. The whole while, PR keeps throwing up smoke and denying everything.

Analysts aren't always right. They are right more often than the press-releases and talking heads from marketing.

[Gorvi]

Perhaps in the past people have taken analyst reports as gospel, but I didn't see any such attitude towards this report prior to your first post.

I would believe analyst reports before I believe the marketing division of any of the game companies. Analysts have called Sony's prior delays, setbacks and cutbacks, sometimes weeks or months in advance. The whole while, PR keeps throwing up smoke and denying everything.

Analysts aren't always right. They are right more often than the press-release and talking heads from marketing.

Bah, it was pre-emptive contempt, sue me. It's not that difficult to forsee where the discussion is going to go when any thread like this is posted. Hmmm, the irony there of me saying that I was predicting where the discussion would go regarding the analysts is kinda funny.

And really, the talking heads from marketing are rarely, if ever, 'right'. They'll take something that's a fact and twist it to say what they want it to. That goes for any company though.

[Kamalot]

Hmmm, the irony there of me saying that I was predicting where the discussion would go regarding the analysts is kinda funny.
You can say that again. :D

[Chameleo]

You make a good point. These "so-called" analyst really don't know shit. Most of the time, they're wrong, just like meteorologists!

they were only called the "weather man/woman" up to like.... what 5 years ago? since when do we refer to them as a kind of 'ologist'....? pshca!

[KamaItachi]

Then why do they constantly have games releasing in Japan first, still? I shouldn't complain too much, they get the vrappy versions and ours get repaired in that time period. Example: FF7 Dirge of Cerberus.

Because for the most part, those games are made in Japan, by Japanese developers, then foreign publishers buy the rights, translate and release it in different markets.

When the game's finished it's released domestically because few companies are going to sit around on software waiting for a big international release date.

There are exceptions, of course, notably Sega, who do all of their own translation in-house, Capcom and Konami, who do trend to release titles in the U.S. first, but they're much more internationally focused and have seperate dev houses in the markets (not sure if Konami's is actually up and running yet, but it was announced they would open up EU and U.S. devs in the very near future).

[Zeal]

Merrill Lynch has always had a very respectable track record. I've read over the report and it makes sense to me.

[Dag-Sabot]

North America has always been the biggest videogame market. Japan is just xenophobic and likes to put out titles for it's own consumers first. The one exception to this is the DS which has become a mass market device in Japan an hasn't hit that in the other territories yet.

HARDWARE in millions
Region Japan America Europe/Other
PSP 4.7 6.39 5.94
DS 6.91 5.11 4.71
GC 4 12.17 4.68
GBA 16.55 38.1 20.48
PS2 23.27 41.82 38.6
N64 5.54 20.63 6.75
PS 21.59 40.78 40.12
SNES 17.17 23.35 8.58
GB 32.47 44.06 42.16
NES 19.35 34 8.56

SOFTWARE in millions
Region Japan America Europe/Other
PSP 10 22 15.3
DS 25.3 20.8 14.3
GC 27 121.6 40.5
GBA 69.8 182.6 75.3
PS2 204 477 366
N64 39.7 142.1 43.2
PS 286 372 303
SNES 194.8 135 49.2
GB 157 190.6 153.3
NES 225.9 230.8 43.3

The only way in which Japan is the leader is in money spent per capita. There are only ~125m Japanese vs. ~330m US + Canadians.
Ok , two questions:
a) Where's XBOX, 360
b) Where's Mexico?

[Sensei-X]

I pick the winner as the first company to fully integrate porn into their console. I think the PS3 and Wii have the 360 one-upped there, so MS needs to get on the ball.

/analysis

Well it wouldn't be Sony, after all the PS2 version of BMX XXX was censored at Sony's request while the Xbox and GameCube versions had completely uncensored topless women. Too bad the game was total garbage. :D

As for analysts the only time I remember them being dead on was when they declared Virtual Boy a Virtual Bomb before it had even released.

[Megalith]

360 is the best console ever made.

[Kamalot]

360 is the best console ever made.
Thanks for your insightful analysis.

[Zanzibar]

I pick the winner as the first company to fully integrate porn into their console. I think the PS3 and Wii have the 360 one-upped there, so MS needs to get on the ball.

/analysis
Somebody hasn't played DOAX2.

[Meatgortex]

Ok , two questions:
a) Where's XBOX, 360
b) Where's Mexico?

a) Didn't have xbox or 360 data. Although both are heavily skew towards NA and Europe with minimal sales in Japan.

b) I do believe Mexico is included in NA data numbers, but the size of the contribution I don't know.

[Wolvie]

Yeah...I'll get back to ya in 2011, until then, no predictions from me, just a lot of game playin.

[Zeal]

360 is the only videogame console I have owned that I can truthfully say surpasses the Dreamcast.

This can be said for no other system, and those who disagree are wrong.