Console Wars: By the Numbers

[bapenguin]

The Mercury news Blog (http://blogs.mercurynews.com/aei/2006/10/console_wars_a_.html) has a nice roundup of all the latest financials from the big 3 console makers. By June 30, Microsoft is still targeting 13 million to 15 million consoles sold worldwide. But it’s going to be hard to hit the 10 million target soon. Microsoft has had a lot of luck in this round of the console wars. It executed an on-time launch. It had a big shortage of consoles through the spring, but Sony failed to execute and pushed back its launch. Why is there so much friction for Xbox 360 sales when Microsoft has the field all to itself?

[EvilBob46]

Although the PS3 will be made to look like a runaway success ("Launch quantities of PS3 sold out!"), I can imagine that PS3 sales would not meet expectations either if there was a large supply of consoles. Despite of the fact that people have been talking about next generation this and next generation that for more than a year, I don't think the average Joe consumer is really interested in the next generation...yet. Especially not with the low price of current-generation hardware and big mass market games like Bully and Final Fantasy on current-gen consoles to hold people over until next year.

[fitbabits]

In answer to the question in the quote above, I believe the relatively low sales of Xbox 360 can be attributed to the following:

1. The price.
2. It's made by Microsoft (or, if you prefer, Micro$oft).
3. The perceived lack of any true blockbuster mass-appeal games.
4. Sony's stranglehold on the hearts and minds of the gaming masses. Like it or not, people still believe that the PlayStation brand is what gaming is all about.
5. The failure rate of the initial shipments of Xbox 360s has likely made people think twice about shelling out $300-$400 on a new console - especially those who already own either a PS2 or Xbox.

[MasterEvilAce]

I think the two main reasons are
1) PRICE

and

2) People want to see what the PS3/Wii can do.. If the PS3 doesn't have any real reason to buy over the 360, and the Wii doesn't impress them, then they'll go with the 360. So people are just waiting to see what the competition offers. Which is good because the price could drop by the time they decide to buy. Which is a good decision as well

[eth3rton]

5. The failure rate of the initial shipments of Xbox 360s has likely made people think twice about shelling out $300-$400 on a new console - especially those who already own either a PS2 or Xbox.


If my memory is correct didn't Sony have an issue with the PS2. Oh yeah it did :

http://www.ps2settlement.com/


"Lawsuits were filed regarding the PlayStation®2 computer entertainment system models 30001, 30001R, 35001, 39001, 39010, 50001, and 50010 (“PS2”). The plaintiffs in those cases claim that certain inappropriate “Disc Read Error” messages are displayed. They also claim that some PS2s fail to play and that some of them cause damage to CDs or DVDs during playback. The companies that were sued, including Sony Computer Entertainment America Inc. (“SCEA”), say they did not do anything wrong and there is nothing wrong with the PS2."



At least Microsoft has admitted their was a problem with the initial shipments and has been fixing them. Not all systems had this problem either. I have had mine since day one and have had no problems with mine ever....

[EvilBob46]

If my memory is correct didn't Sony have an issue with the PS2. Oh yeah it did :


(I think) You missed the point. Many people have bought faulty PS2 and Xbox consoles already, which makes them less likely to take the plunge on next-gen consoles in light of negative media coverage about their failure rates.

[fitbabits]

If my memory is correct didn't Sony have an issue with the PS2. Oh yeah it did :

http://www.ps2settlement.com/


"Lawsuits were filed regarding the PlayStation®2 computer entertainment system models 30001, 30001R, 35001, 39001, 39010, 50001, and 50010 (“PS2”). The plaintiffs in those cases claim that certain inappropriate “Disc Read Error” messages are displayed. They also claim that some PS2s fail to play and that some of them cause damage to CDs or DVDs during playback. The companies that were sued, including Sony Computer Entertainment America Inc. (“SCEA”), say they did not do anything wrong and there is nothing wrong with the PS2."



At least Microsoft has admitted their was a problem with the initial shipments and has been fixing them. Not all systems had this problem either. I have had mine since day one and have had no problems with mine ever....
The PS2 failure rate debacle is long forgotten in the minds of most people, while the Xbox 360 failure rate crap is still relatively fresh in people's minds.

[Wonka]

I think that failure rate has hurt the 360. Even if the failure rate is as low as they claim, I think that will translate to to many people out there holding their money because they know someone who has a dead $400 box.

Stateside, I think that the pricepoint is also too high for a new console when you consider that most Americans have slightly less money than they did at the last console launch (that is, median incomes are down).

I don't think that Sony will have an advantage on either of these points in a year. They too are packing a lot of hot stuff into a similar sized box, and they are also throwing in a built in power supply to boot. Thermodynamics and probability suggest that there will be heat problems there too (although maybe there will be a miracle of design?). It also seems conservative to expect that their console will likely still cost more than $300 in a year from now...

The big advantage for Sony seems to be that most people still perceive it as the "safest" purchase. Given the high prices, "safe" is a very good thing to be right now.

[Uniqueusername]

IMHO: Price, price, and price.

The average consumer doesn't know about failure rates, who makes which console, or even how to find their arse with both hands.... However they can see that $Xbox360 is a big number and $Playstation 2 is a small number.

That's the #1 factor for the average consumer.

[RevGored]

In answer to the question in the quote above, I believe the relatively low sales of Xbox 360 can be attributed to the following:

1. The price.
2. It's made by Microsoft (or, if you prefer, Micro$oft).
3. The perceived lack of any true blockbuster mass-appeal games.
4. Sony's stranglehold on the hearts and minds of the gaming masses. Like it or not, people still believe that the PlayStation brand is what gaming is all about.
5. The failure rate of the initial shipments of Xbox 360s has likely made people think twice about shelling out $300-$400 on a new console - especially those who already own either a PS2 or Xbox.

1) Due to the fact that the PS3 is still more expensive at its' lowest iteration, do you think that MS's 'artificial price drop' will move more units, especially since there will not be an abundance of PS3's this holiday season?

2) Anyone that refers to it as 'Micro$oft' is either a 12 year old Alliance player or a Slashdot regular. You decide which is worse.

3) This is a huge problem. Microsoft pidgeonholed themselves into 'the Halo system'. Unless they're able to move something big like Gears into broad-market appeal, they're in trouble until Halo 3 comes out.

4) This is also a big trouble spot. I was brought up in the late Atari/early Nintendo generation, whereas a H U G E number of gamers these days were brought up in the Playstation generation. And now, they're getting jobs, which means the money to move hardward as well as software.

5) The failure rate of the 360 is a perception issue. The PS2 had an abyssmal failure rate when it came out, and for the 3-4 years beyond. Anyone here have a PS2 that stopped reading blue/silver discs? Raise your hand.

[eth3rton]

1) Due to the fact that the PS3 is still more expensive at its' lowest iteration, do you think that MS's 'artificial price drop' will move more units, especially since there will not be an abundance of PS3's this holiday season?

2) Anyone that refers to it as 'Micro$oft' is either a 12 year old Alliance player or a Slashdot regular. You decide which is worse.

3) This is a huge problem. Microsoft pidgeonholed themselves into 'the Halo system'. Unless they're able to move something big like Gears into broad-market appeal, they're in trouble until Halo 3 comes out.

4) This is also a big trouble spot. I was brought up in the late Atari/early Nintendo generation, whereas a H U G E number of gamers these days were brought up in the Playstation generation. And now, they're getting jobs, which means the money to move hardward as well as software.

5) The failure rate of the 360 is a perception issue. The PS2 had an abyssmal failure rate when it came out, and for the 3-4 years beyond. Anyone here have a PS2 that stopped reading blue/silver discs? Raise your hand.


THANK YOU..!!

[The-Builder]

IMHO: Price, price, and price.

The average consumer doesn't know about failure rates, who makes which console, or even how to find their arse with both hands.... However they can see that $Xbox360 is a big number and $Playstation 2 is a small number.

That's the #1 factor for the average consumer.
People would be all over the Gamecube in that case.

[TrackZero]

In answer to the question in the quote above, I believe the relatively low sales of Xbox 360 can be attributed to the following:

1. The price.
2. It's made by Microsoft (or, if you prefer, Micro$oft).
3. The perceived lack of any true blockbuster mass-appeal games.
4. Sony's stranglehold on the hearts and minds of the gaming masses. Like it or not, people still believe that the PlayStation brand is what gaming is all about.
5. The failure rate of the initial shipments of Xbox 360s has likely made people think twice about shelling out $300-$400 on a new console - especially those who already own either a PS2 or Xbox.

I agree completely.

As to #1 and #5 though, I've spoken to many people recently who are finally looking to buy a 360 (as they've heard of various games they want on the system, or have played). They're just waiting for MS to drop the price, and they now trust that all the kinks are worked out of the hardware.

Damnit MS, drop the price, even just a token $20 and your sales will jump!

[Borys]

fits nailed it.

$199 Core and $299 Premium and you have the hottest system this Christmas.

A $200 machine that plays DVDs, plays the newest Madden *and* Gears of War. Even Wii wouldn't stood a chance against that Behemoth.

For your casual Madden player a $200 console would be an INSANELY easier choice than a $500 one.

[92miata]

i am pretty sure it is price. the 60 bucks for a game is not good for consumers. i think this is why the xbox 360 is slow with sales. i do not buy games for anything over 30 bucks, and i am sure there are many like myself. 360 games are 60 while everything playstation2 is under 40, mostly 20. you gotta think about that.

just my opinion, but it seems i am not the only one.

[cjrizzo]

In answer to the question in the quote above, I believe the relatively low sales of Xbox 360 can be attributed to the following:

1. The price.
2. It's made by Microsoft (or, if you prefer, Micro$oft).
3. The perceived lack of any true blockbuster mass-appeal games.
4. Sony's stranglehold on the hearts and minds of the gaming masses. Like it or not, people still believe that the PlayStation brand is what gaming is all about.
5. The failure rate of the initial shipments of Xbox 360s has likely made people think twice about shelling out $300-$400 on a new console - especially those who already own either a PS2 or Xbox.

Fit - I'll address each of your points:
1. While I agree that the price may have been steep, how can you say that 360's low sales are attributed to price when people are shelling out nearly double the amount for the PS3 without hesitation? If you look at the state of the market, probably 90% of the titles for the 360 and PS3 will be the same game with minor differences. You are really paying a premium on the PS3 for exclusive content (SCEA titles, exclusives) and blu-ray but neither is going to be a major factor for another year (the launch titles on PS3 are not significantly impressive and blu-ray titles are few and far between).

2. Frankly, this is a lame point and isn't even worth my time. You could argue that Sony's proprietary "do it with our own format every time (MiniDisc, Beta, Blu-Ray, Memory Stick)" is worse because they drive their own standards - at least MSFT tries to collaborate on industry standards.

3. Agree mostly on this point, but games like Dead Rising, CoD2, DoA4 are very popular and mainstream titles. Is there a killer app? No. But now that we are hitting Gen 2 titles, this should change a lot in the next year.

4. I agree here - but its perception and not necessarily reality. Nintendo has done the most to advance gaming.

5. If you think that the 360 failure rate was bad (and while I can't remember the percentage, it was somewhere under 3% [I think]). The fact that Sony is having a hell of a time with blu lasers and the cores you will either see a very low yield that will make it to consumers or a number of issues in the first phase. You think people spending $600 won't be even more annoyed and angered when or if they have problems with their PS3's and Sony will delay a statement or possible action to correct the issue(s) (remember that it took Sony a while with the PSP to admit issues with dead pixels).

I'm not a 360 fanboy (or a PS2/3 fanboy). I own or owned all of the systems that are available right now (and will probably wait but eventually buy the PS3 and Wii). I'm just saying that Microsoft was most likely their own worst enemy by not having one SKU and Halo 3 ready by now. The early issues are typical of the first rev of a new electronic product and they will probably happen with the PS3 and Wii also. Microsoft has a big lead right now because they are first. They are going into the holidays with a large stock and a number of great games. If Sony's production yields continue to remain low for the next 8-12 months, they may not be able to gain the mass-market due to availability of the system. If that happens over the next 8-12 months, we'll see how fast game publishers move to make a 360 version of a game (or exclusive) that has potential to reach 10 million+ gamers or a game on the PS3 that might only reach 5 million or less.

If the war is dictated on price and mass-market appeal the Wii will have a major advantage in much of this area (and a greater 2006/7 supply of systems). The wildcard here is if the controllers will enable game makers to come up with gimmicky uses of the control scheme that are just okay or really compelling must-have titles. Frankly, I'm not convinced yet - and I have had a DS since day 1 and still don't really love the stylus. After the Wii sports fun has worn off, do you really want to flick your wrist to move a player in Madden or swing Link's sword? Time will tell...

[eth3rton]

If it really comes down to price wouldn't Microsoft be in a better position to pull a price drop (even a year from now)...? I don't see them doing it this year. They have no reason to. Wish they would but its not gonna happen. I'm pretty sure they are confident that Sony won't get enough systems on the shelves to warrant a drop this year....

[rein]

Hey Noobs! STFU! This is a thread about the Xbox 360, not the PS2.

Is price really what is causing most people to hold out? Most people that I talk to at work point to lack of games they want to play, and waiting for a PS3/Wii. I know we all want things cheaper, but if Microsoft lowered the price to $199/$299, we would not have read a story last week about their losses in the gaming division shrinking. As far as the $60 game prices, not an issue at all. The 360 has a fantastic attach rate and LE/CE versions of games are selling like Krispy Kremes when the "Hot" light is on.

[51|RandoM]

5) The failure rate of the 360 is a perception issue. The PS2 had an abyssmal failure rate when it came out, and for the 3-4 years beyond. Anyone here have a PS2 that stopped reading blue/silver discs? Raise your hand.

The failure rate of the ps2 was a perception issue as well, as proven by you thinking there was an abysmal failure rate when it came out.

Just fyi, there wasn't...

Do a search on google. The only place you find it mentioned that the ps2 had a high failure rate AT RELEASE---at least in the first page of results? Evil Avatar... lol.

The failures most people are talking about, the failures that most people were pissed about, are those that occurred in a clump shortly after the warranty expired.

The 360 was/is a different story, obviously.

As for the 160 games by the end of the year, I always get a chuckle out of that. Of those that have been released so far, I've found 4 interesting enough to buy and only 3 of them were ultimately worth the money. They must have a ton of great titles coming out between now and January 1st. I hope they do.

The only bright spot in the referenced article is the fact that Nintendo is releasing a new console this year---and showing a profit. Priceless. :p

[jonat3]

Fit - I'll address each of your points:
1. While I agree that the price may have been steep, how can you say that 360's low sales are attributed to price when people are shelling out nearly double the amount for the PS3 without hesitation? If you look at the state of the market, probably 90% of the titles for the 360 and PS3 will be the same game with minor differences. You are really paying a premium on the PS3 for exclusive content (SCEA titles, exclusives) and blu-ray but neither is going to be a major factor for another year (the launch titles on PS3 are not significantly impressive and blu-ray titles are few and far between).

You have to look at the big picture here. Those people willing to shell out TWICE the amount of money only appear AT LAUNCH and are a MINORITY. You should check out previous console performances. I believe you will always notice that a lower price always drives significant sales (200 dollars being the sweet spot). Just because there are a few diehards out there willing to shell out alot of money, doesn't mean the casual gamer will be willing to do this as well. There is a major difference between the hardcore and the mainstream gamer. If you don't even understand this distinction, then you have no business analyzing the game market.

2. Frankly, this is a lame point and isn't even worth my time. You could argue that Sony's proprietary "do it with our own format every time (MiniDisc, Beta, Blu-Ray, Memory Stick)" is worse because they drive their own standards - at least MSFT tries to collaborate on industry standards.

This is an INCREDIBLY important point. He's not saying that MS sucks, he's saying that MS as a gaming brand is still not mainstream enough. The xbox as a console was superior to the PS2 in nearly every way. But the PS2 wiped the floor with it anyway. Why do you think that is? Because the Sony brand where it concerns gaming is far more powerful than the MS brand is.

3. Agree mostly on this point, but games like Dead Rising, CoD2, DoA4 are very popular and mainstream titles. Is there a killer app? No. But now that we are hitting Gen 2 titles, this should change a lot in the next year.

True, MS best titles are coming out next year. Things will get very interesting then.

4. I agree here - but its perception and not necessarily reality. Nintendo has done the most to advance gaming.

It's reality, count on it. The 120 million PS2's shipped compared to roughly the 25 million for both xbox and GC are proof enough that the mainstream gamers prefer the playstation brand over the competition. This might change this gen, but as of now the playstation brand is king over the other two.

5. If you think that the 360 failure rate was bad (and while I can't remember the percentage, it was somewhere under 3% [I think]). The fact that Sony is having a hell of a time with blu lasers and the cores you will either see a very low yield that will make it to consumers or a number of issues in the first phase. You think people spending $600 won't be even more annoyed and angered when or if they have problems with their PS3's and Sony will delay a statement or possible action to correct the issue(s) (remember that it took Sony a while with the PSP to admit issues with dead pixels).

Why bring Sony up here? The xbox360 hasn't sold so well and the failure rates may be a potential reason for that. I don't see what Sony has to do with this point.

I'm not a 360 fanboy (or a PS2/3 fanboy). I own or owned all of the systems that are available right now (and will probably wait but eventually buy the PS3 and Wii). I'm just saying that Microsoft was most likely their own worst enemy by not having one SKU and Halo 3 ready by now. The early issues are typical of the first rev of a new electronic product and they will probably happen with the PS3 and Wii also. Microsoft has a big lead right now because they are first. They are going into the holidays with a large stock and a number of great games. If Sony's production yields continue to remain low for the next 8-12 months, they may not be able to gain the mass-market due to availability of the system. If that happens over the next 8-12 months, we'll see how fast game publishers move to make a 360 version of a game (or exclusive) that has potential to reach 10 million+ gamers or a game on the PS3 that might only reach 5 million or less.

I agree. Next year will be a good year for MS. They might seriously start capitalizing on Sony's mistakes.

If the war is dictated on price and mass-market appeal the Wii will have a major advantage in much of this area (and a greater 2006/7 supply of systems). The wildcard here is if the controllers will enable game makers to come up with gimmicky uses of the control scheme that are just okay or really compelling must-have titles. Frankly, I'm not convinced yet - and I have had a DS since day 1 and still don't really love the stylus. After the Wii sports fun has worn off, do you really want to flick your wrist to move a player in Madden or swing Link's sword? Time will tell...

Yup, we will have to play the waiting game to see how it all turns out.

[Vermillion]

I think the biggest issue with the 360, is that they are unfortunately locked into a fairly small target audience with their current software lineup.

This didn't really occur to me until last night, when I talked the wife into playing Splinter Cell: Double Agent with me. I thought we could do split screen and both be spies, and she was keen on the idea (no killing, just hacking). Low and behold, that didn't work. Then I looked at the 12 plus titles I owned, and outside of GRAW and Pong, there weren't really any that supported split screen coop. That sucked.

And then I looked at all my titles. A vast majority of FPS, 2 RPG, with 2 sports and 2 racing titles. Where were the fun games my wife would like, the Super Mario's, Banjo's, Zeldas of the 360? The family friendly titles (appeals to all ages/sexes) or platformers. We had Kameo, an average title that was a over year old, and that was it.

I love my 360, and the lineup appeals to me as a gamer (lots of FPS). Next month I'm getting 3 titles alone, GoW, Vegas and CoD3. I find the 360, to be a very "adult" system, almost to a fault. And I look on the horizon, and outside of Pinata, I still don't see the family friendly fair anywhere to be had in the near future.

Just my 2 cents...

[rjcc]

If it really comes down to price wouldn't Microsoft be in a better position to pull a price drop (even a year from now)...? I don't see them doing it this year. They have no reason to. Wish they would but its not gonna happen. I'm pretty sure they are confident that Sony won't get enough systems on the shelves to warrant a drop this year....


I keep telling people, sony already announced when microsoft will drop the price. it will be at the same time sony's manufacturing gets straightened out, presumabley around the time of the european launch in spring...assuming sony doesn't have any other manufacturing problems delays. microsoft iwll be on the new manufacturing process by then and be able to drop price without taking a big hit.

[soco]

having just come back from 'family day' at the xbox experience here, where parents and even young children seemed to be thoroughly enjoying tons of 360 games, i'm relatively certain it's the price, especially here in europe. which makes me wonder how all the consoles will do since even the nintendo console is debuting at a slightly higher than normal price.

[EternalGamer]

I think price is definitely a factor and no question anytime you lower the price of something you will sell more, no matter what it is. But I think it is primarily the software library that is the problem. MS seems firmly locked into that 18-30 male gamer demographic, and even then only a specific type of gamer. There is a HUGE younger demographic that both Sony and Nintendo have capitalized on greatly, but MS has barely put anything out to address that crowd outside of Kameo (Viva Pinata will fail miserably). Halo 3 will be the first big mainstream title they have, so it will be interesting to see if things change then and/or what Sony tries to offer at a similar time to compete.

[Wonka]

I think price is definitely a factor and no question anytime you lower the price of something you will sell more, no matter what it is. But I think it is primarily the software library that is the problem. MS seems firmly locked into that 18-30 male gamer demographic, and even then only a specific type of gamer. There is a HUGE younger demographic that both Sony and Nintendo have capitalized on greatly, but MS has barely put anything out to address that crowd outside of Kameo (Viva Pinata will fail miserably). Halo 3 will be the first big mainstream title they have, so it will be interesting to see if things change then and/or what Sony tries to offer at a similar time to compete.

This is a strong point that you (and several others) have made. The game library for 360 is VERY focused on the adult male market. Which only makes the price more of a sticking point (since only one person on average per household will want the system).

In the early days of Xbox, they were very committed at MS to trying to get as broad a range as possible of titles into the marketplace... But lately, they seem only interested in finding the "next Halo". I think that they need to find the "next Halo", but they had also better not give up on nurturing a broad software portfolio, or they will never reach the mass audience that they talk so much about. Their software library so far has really done next to nothing to really address the mass audience. This is a MAJOR failing, and something that they had better spend big bucks to correct.

[rjcc]

I think price is definitely a factor and no question anytime you lower the price of something you will sell more, no matter what it is. But I think it is primarily the software library that is the problem. MS seems firmly locked into that 18-30 male gamer demographic, and even then only a specific type of gamer. There is a HUGE younger demographic that both Sony and Nintendo have capitalized on greatly, but MS has barely put anything out to address that crowd outside of Kameo (Viva Pinata will fail miserably). Halo 3 will be the first big mainstream title they have, so it will be interesting to see if things change then and/or what Sony tries to offer at a similar time to compete.


what are you basing viva pinata's failure off of? I'm surprised at the visibility it has achieved with non-gamer parents I know. it could surprise you.

[EternalGamer]

It is possible it could surprise me, but just from knowing how the game works, I just think it is unlikely to create a lot of buzz. It might sell well if MS puts lots of marketing behind it, but I don't think it will sell on its own merits. I can't see too many kids wanting to play a game with a disembodied cursor where they sacrifice animals to one another. I'm not really sure who Rare's audience for this title is. At the very least, they should have designed an compelling on screen avatar for the players a la Animal Crossing.

The main problem with Viva though is probably that the market for the 360 is not broad enough for it to be a huge success and this title alone I don't think has the strength to broaden it. I seriously doubt any parent is going to go buy their 12 year old a 360 because of Viva Pinata and I also doubt that many 12 year olds would want a 360 for a game like Viva Pinata. Nintendo is going to have that market tied up this Fall between the DS and the Wii.

I think I understand what Rare was trying to do. There is no way they could have had another full blown game like Banjo 3 ready for this Christmas, so Viva is kind of a quicker project that hopefully will keep MS happy while they work on other projects. I'm just not sure this whole Rare & MS thing is working out the way either of them had hoped.

[Meatgortex]

Anyone know how well the Viva TV show is doing in the ratings. With that audience the success of the show will have more to do with the sales of the game then it's quality.

[soco]

The main problem with Viva though is probably that the market for the 360 is not broad enough for it to be a huge success and this title alone I don't think has the strength to broaden it. I seriously doubt any parent is going to go buy their 12 year old a 360 because of Viva Pinata and I also doubt that many 12 year olds would want a 360 for a game like Viva Pinata. Nintendo is going to have that market tied up this Fall between the DS and the Wii.

i was playing the game today with kids a lot younger than 12 around me and some of their parents seemed to be enjoying it as well. (there was a kid that was about 4 who, who played at the console next to me for quite a while with just an adult helping him, because there's no audio to hear the messages read.)

it didn't appear as exciting to some of the kids as lego star wars,sonic, and cars, but that's probably partially because not everyone was able to go through the tutorial, and it's not a pick-up-and-play game. it's no assurance that the game will be a hit, but i've been surprised on how many women and children have been trying to play it here so it's at least having some effect.

i also think some of you are overlooking the arcade titles. the kids were eating those up and it was pretty hard finding a free console to play those on. my dad picked up one and the nephews love playing the arcade games.

[RMan]

I think a lower price of the system would help, but I still think the system is just not that exciting. I think hardcore gamers are greatly overestimating how much people are willing to sacrifice for better graphics (and no, I'm not saying that's all the system has, but it's the primary selling point). Having a more diverse library of games will help, as always, but it's still a generally uninspiring system (for the masses), I think.

Improving their software lineup is more than likely the only way they can succeed at this point (besides Sony just not being able to produce units or failing miserably in some other way), but for the most part they still seem to be preaching to the converted and not straying from their core demographic. A game like Viva Pinata is definitely a step in the right direction, but it’s a really small step in the grand scheme of things. Perhaps they can improve their online draw with more content or services, but Sony will be doing the same thing.

[Norse]

Anyone know how well the Viva TV show is doing in the ratings. With that audience the success of the show will have more to do with the sales of the game then it's quality.

I read some MS people had said it was the #1 saturdag morning cartoon. I have no idea if that is any good indication of how it's doing.

[BigJonno]

I'm beginning to think that Sony's talk of the next generation not starting until they say it does is true, but not in the way they think. When you can no longer buy a PS2 that has all the big sports titles released on it and a crapload of casual/party games (Singstar, Buzz etc) at a much lower price than any other console, then people will start buying next gen consoles.

The PS2 has defied the normal pattern by still being an incredibly strong, current machine when the next generation of consoles are being released. Even with the PS3 just around the corner (though quite a big corner over here) the PS2 still has a pretty damn awesome release schedule. It's not just the casuals and the parents buying kiddie games being catered to either. Look at last weeks PS2 release list from GAME.

Canis Canem Edit (AKA Bully)
Pippa Funnell Takes the Reins
Mortal Kombat: Armageddon
Singstar Legends Solus
Singstar Legends with Microphones
Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell: Double Agent
Family Guy
The Legend of Spyro: A New Beginning
Pro Evolution Soccer 6

How many people are going to buy a new console when they're still getting games like that for their old console? It's not like the 360 has much in the way of "I must play that" titles. The PS3 and Wii have nothing that's grabbing me by the balls and dragging me to a pre-order queue either. I know there are a few I want, but there's certainly nothing to make me shell out up to £500 for new console, especially when I keep being told that I'm going to have to buy a new TV to get the most out of it.

I, like a lot of people, I'm guessing a lot more than when the PS2 launched, have also got a PC sitting here that's more than capable of running the latest games. It's far from cutting edge (it was when I bought it three years ago and it's still the same machine, bar a £125 graphics card upgrade earlier this year so I could play Oblivion) but it looks damn good, a lot better than my PS2 or Xbox and I'm running most brand new, graphics intensive stuff at low-medium settings. The next generation does not have the graphical wow factor it once did.

All this boils down to one thing; incentive. The incentive to buy a next generation console is a lot less than it's ever been and no-one has provided a particularly compelling reason to buy their new machine. Even the market leader is turning people off with an incredibly high price point and technology that most people just aren't interested in. It's going to be the ultimate test of the Playstation brand as it seems that Sony is relying entirely on the name to make the PS3 a success.

[Camel]

How many people are going to buy a new console when they're still getting games like that for their old console?
For me, that would actually be a reason to buy a PS3 (assuming I was already interested in buying one). Now only can I play the new stuff, but I can play all the old stuff on it as well. That's a huge selling point to me....BC might not matter too much after a few years but at first it's always a big deal.

[Dean]

As a consumer, I not really concern about numbers. Only people should be concerned about numbers is the people at MS/SONY/NINTENDO. Just because MS is not selling the 360 in huge numbers, does that mean it no good. 360 is a great console and people should try it before knock it. I know alot of people who brought the PS2 because of the price. Not because it was superior or had better games. So, I think the PS2 will sell more consoles then anybody else for another 6 months.

[Kelegacy]

Anyone know how well the Viva TV show is doing in the ratings. With that audience the success of the show will have more to do with the sales of the game then it's quality.
I downloaded the short shows from Marketplace and abhorred them. Godawful, from the voice cast to the characters themselves. Just so damn uninteresting. And I like cartoons and animation.

Hopefully the game is worlds apart. Hopefully.

[Wyrm]

Gears of War will move systems. It moved one for me. I bought a 360 for Gears of War, and Halo 3. Everything else is merely icing on the cake. I have like nine 360 games now, and I enjoy all of them. In the end, it's only two things for the large majority of consumers.

1) Price. Period. Microsoft is being too hard headed here. The hardcore gamers have already bought the system, it's time to appeal to the rest of the market. They will NOT move a greater number of consoles unless they lower the price. Even if it's by 50 bucks, the price must drop. Hell, even 30 bucks. The right price for the core would be 250. The premium could still be 350~, but if the core was the same price as the Wii and toted online play, better graphics, and Halo, MS wins this Christmas. Hell, if I was a parent, I'd consider getting both the Wii and the 360 at those prices, because it's 2 consoles for the price of one lower end PS3.
2) Games games games. MS made a mistake not pushing Halo out a lot earlier. Halo 3 should have been a title that came within 6 months of launch, right when the system demands were finally being met. Even something with the Halo brand name would push systems.

[Wolvie]

Why such friction you ask? Perhaps brand recognition? Sony has that "Nintendo" aura of recognition going for it, and people still don't recognize *** slim white box as the "go-to" system. Perhaps over time, but not quite yet.

[Metal]

$400 is still a big jump for anyone, and until they get their premium edition at $299 it's going to continue to sputter in sales. Sony will have an even bigger problem in comparison to normal "PlayStation" sales numbers until they drop. I don't consider the Wii competition for either.

[rein]

BigJunno, I think you may have presented the best case in the thread. I still buy more PS2 games than I do 360 games. Not because I dislike the 360, but because there are still some great games being released on the PS2.

[Wolvie]

$400 is still a big jump for anyone, and until they get their premium edition at $299 it's going to continue to sputter in sales. Sony will have an even bigger problem in comparison to normal "PlayStation" sales numbers until they drop. I don't consider the Wii competition for either.

Hmmmm....so we could be looking at a gaming recession? Although that might be a bad thing, it will in no way be as bad as the crash of 85. Video game sales may slump for a year or so until prices drop, but the whole damn thing won't just go away like Atari did.

[QueeG-Servo]

So, the next gen. starts.......when we can all afford it to.

[trip1eX]

#6 The 360 is so identified with the HD era that folks who don't have hdtv aren't as interested.

#7 Price, but not just console price. Game prices too. $60? OUch.

#8 Not just that Sony is identified with what gaming is about, but Sony is also still giving the PS2 good love well into next year. They are making sure you don't have to upgrade yet if you don't want to. Contrast that with MS who quit making Xbox games.

#9 Sketchy backward compatibility. AT least that's what I hear. I don't know firsthand, but it sounds like trading in your Xbox would mean not being able to play half your Xbox games.

#10 Big holes in the lineup. Look at the big games coming out this fall for the 360. All first person shooters that blend together a bit too much. GoW, FEAR, CoD3 and R6:Vegas.

[RorschachCCCLX]

In answer to the question in the quote above, I believe the relatively low sales of Xbox 360 can be attributed to the following:

1. The price.
2. It's made by Microsoft (or, if you prefer, Micro$oft).
3. The perceived lack of any true blockbuster mass-appeal games.
4. Sony's stranglehold on the hearts and minds of the gaming masses. Like it or not, people still believe that the PlayStation brand is what gaming is all about.
5. The failure rate of the initial shipments of Xbox 360s has likely made people think twice about shelling out $300-$400 on a new console - especially those who already own either a PS2 or Xbox.

Dear Massa Fiddleybits,

You are exactly right. you use the exact words I would in describing that, like "perceived lack" or "stranglehold." what was PS2's block buster hit in its first year? Summoner? Fantavision? it seems all this matters now for microsoft but not for Sony, Sony doesn't need a killer app to sell systems, but Microsoft does. MGS 4? Truth be told, Metal Gear gets alot of press, but not alot of sales. at my store it barely moves. It might be a great game, but it won't be a blockbuster seller. (if it goes multiplatform it would help broaden its exposer.) Sony is riding on its brandname and that will carry them far.

-Your Biggest Fan,

ЯR

[Kelegacy]

#6 The 360 is so identified with the HD era that folks who don't have hdtv aren't as interested.

#7 Price, but not just console price. Game prices too. $60? OUch.

#8 Not just that Sony is identified with what gaming is about, but Sony is also still giving the PS2 good love well into next year. They are making sure you don't have to upgrade yet if you don't want to. Contrast that with MS who quit making Xbox games.

#9 Sketchy backward compatibility. AT least that's what I hear. I don't know firsthand, but it sounds like trading in your Xbox would mean not being able to play half your Xbox games.

#10 Big holes in the lineup. Look at the big games coming out this fall for the 360. All first person shooters that blend together a bit too much. GoW, FEAR, CoD3 and R6:Vegas.

I sincerely hope that the 60 dollar game thing is one of the problems with people refusing to upgrade to the next-gen. I hope this becomes a prominent issue so publishers start pricing games accordingly. It's just too much money for a game, and in adulthood, where I can afford more games than I could as a teen, I actually purchase less now. It's hard for me to justify games for my 360, whether I want to play them or not. The whole Marvel: Ultimate Alliance being 20 bucks more on the 360 really chaps my ass.

But people are cows and they'll eat it up, so I doubt this will ever change. I just hope it does get labeled as oneof the deterrents of the next-gen so someone will start taking notice.

[Balthasar]

5. The failure rate of the initial shipments of Xbox 360s has likely made people think twice about shelling out $300-$400 on a new console - especially those who already own either a PS2 or Xbox.
Funny note on this: I went to a Gamestop on Broadway after watching some Football and tried to play the 360 kiosk. It was unplayable. Why? Red Ring of Death. If I'm a potential 360 buyer and I see that, I think twice about buying a 360 just right now.

[f1sh3r]

i predict today that 50% of initial ps3 sales will be jacktards buying them and immediately putting them on ebay. i think that's probably low, but it's safe. of course that won't stop sony and the sony defense force from claiming victory, but that is to be expected. what i want to see is how many of those ebay sales go through and how much they fetch.

[KingGorilla]

Getting consoles to people who want them already is easy. Microsoft has to crack into the average consumer more. What has Microsoft done to convince people 1. They need a 360 and not their PS2, 2. Why they want a 360 now rather than waiting for a PS3, Wii, 3. that this 3-400 dollar box is worth it to begin with?

Because most people do not care about xbox live, do not care about HD videogames.

And though I am loathe to admit it, Sony may have already won on goodwill alone. Nintendo and Microsoft cut their old console support off like a malignant growth. How many good PS2 titles have just been released, and are on the horizon? There are a lot of good first and second party games coming to the PS2. That tells people that their "investment" will last longer than 3-4 years like the Xbox and Wii.

[Twigz'N'Berries]

i am pretty sure it is price. the 60 bucks for a game is not good for consumers. i think this is why the xbox 360 is slow with sales. i do not buy games for anything over 30 bucks, and i am sure there are many like myself. 360 games are 60 while everything playstation2 is under 40, mostly 20. you gotta think about that.

just my opinion, but it seems i am not the only one.
IMO, you have hit the nail on the head.

Also, ditch the base sku, pack in a game and drop the price to $249 or less and the 360 would move pretty quickly. I know a couple of people who are waiting for a price drop too. MS should make that move pre-Thanksgiving and watch them fly off the shelves afterward...especially with GOW being on the market at that time.

[RorschachCCCLX]

Funny note on this: I went to a Gamestop on Broadway after watching some Football and tried to play the 360 kiosk. It was unplayable. Why? Red Ring of Death. If I'm a potential 360 buyer and I see that, I think twice about buying a 360 just right now.

yeah, at my store they will once in awhile do that, but consider the following: Those cases allow for some shitty ventilation, and on most of the time the store is open. when it gets a red light, just reseting it will make things groovy again. We've replaced our PS2 unit 4 times since I started working there, most of the time its disc read error problems.

ЯR

[cjrizzo]

#6 The 360 is so identified with the HD era that folks who don't have hdtv aren't as interested.

#7 Price, but not just console price. Game prices too. $60? OUch.

#8 Not just that Sony is identified with what gaming is about, but Sony is also still giving the PS2 good love well into next year. They are making sure you don't have to upgrade yet if you don't want to. Contrast that with MS who quit making Xbox games.

#9 Sketchy backward compatibility. AT least that's what I hear. I don't know firsthand, but it sounds like trading in your Xbox would mean not being able to play half your Xbox games.

#10 Big holes in the lineup. Look at the big games coming out this fall for the 360. All first person shooters that blend together a bit too much. GoW, FEAR, CoD3 and R6:Vegas.

Good points, but:

#6: And the PS3 isn't? Considering it's basing the whole blu-ray HD strategy of Sony on it's back. In my mind, SOny is pushing the HD thing far more than Microsoft (and their not even including the cables packed in for it).

#7: Agree - $60 for 360 or PS3 games is ridiculous but so aren't development costs for these systems versus prior generations. THey've got to make their money I guess (razor/blade strategy).

#8: 100% agree

#9: Agree again - the worst thing that MSFT did was not support backward compatibility for all games. It's not so much that they don't but more in the way they misled consumers into thinking that they would. I don't, however, think that this is a big factor in sales. If you have an XBox, you'll still have the original to play on.

#10: Too many FPS games. It's like the SNES/Genesis generation with fighting games - everyone is in a "me too" mentality. You only get the Katamaris and Rockstar Table Tennis games very infrequently. This annoys me and I love CoD2 and Halo but how many of these games do we need? I get it - different weapons, blow things up, me against everyone. It's a little tiring - that is one thing that is big in the Wii's favor is that they can move in a unique direction.

[Frogleg Special]

It's selection of games and price. Games are for attracting jaded gamers and price is for enticing any people to buy.

[Balthasar]

yeah, at my store they will once in awhile do that, but consider the following: Those cases allow for some shitty ventilation, and on most of the time the store is open. when it gets a red light, just reseting it will make things groovy again.
We reset it 3 times with zero success.

[Tel Prydain]

I have a mate who is desperate to get a 360, but on a starting teachers salary that’s not an option for him.
As soon as the 360 drops into the price range of the lower-middle class, I’m sure it’s sales will take a huge jump.

[Aleman]

Price and bad marketing. My casual gamer friends are happy playing Madden on Xbox and think I'm stupid for spending $400 just to get better graphics. Also, I don't think enough people know about games like Dead Rising, Saints Row, PGR3, GRAW, or even PDZ. The only 360 games my friends seem to know about are sports games and Kameo (which, for some reason, is still the game being pimped on the kiosk at our campus EB Games).

The "HD gaming" marketing tactic is also a bad idea. People without HDTV's think they won't benefit from the 360. For a lot of the people I know, spending more than $200-300 on a TV is ludicrous.

[sixtyfps]

Screw HD and all the bullshit that comes with it. Let demand waver and the prices will plummet. Then I can get my game on. There's plenty of top-notch stuff to play in crap definition, and I don't mind a bit.

[Citizen Erased]

In answer to the question in the quote above, I believe the relatively low sales of Xbox 360 can be attributed to the following:

1. The price.
2. It's made by Microsoft (or, if you prefer, Micro$oft).
3. The perceived lack of any true blockbuster mass-appeal games.
4. Sony's stranglehold on the hearts and minds of the gaming masses. Like it or not, people still believe that the PlayStation brand is what gaming is all about.
5. The failure rate of the initial shipments of Xbox 360s has likely made people think twice about shelling out $300-$400 on a new console - especially those who already own either a PS2 or Xbox.

Totally agreed.

Some more:

6. Sony Marketing BS. Sony did a fantastic job at touting theoretical PS3 capabilities (7 controller support & two screens anyone?) as opposed to actual proper specifications at E3 2005. I'm positive stuff like that and the "sure, we're launching only six months behind the 360" convinced a lot of people to take the wait-for-PS3 approach.

7. Japan. Everyone knows the 360 bombed in Japan. Microsoft really needed a killer Mistwalker game (or substitute) while it was the only player in the next-gen market. While a few of the games in the MS pipeline have the potential to shift some more units, I think the 360 will be a much harder sell (in Japan) once the PS3 drops.

The reasons I dont have a 360 yet:

1. Games. There are not enough must have games for me as of yet, especially as i built a new PC rig in November last year. This effectively rules out titles like COD2 and Oblivion from being reasons to buy a 360, as I can play them on the PC.

2. Price. $650AU, if I buy a 360 at current price, will be the most I have spent on a console ever. Got the PS2 when MGS2 dropped for $400AU, got the cube reasonably early for $150AU (it tanked hard in Australia) and got the Xbox for cheap when R6:3 came out. I could have justified the price to myself if there were enough compelling games at launch, but there weren't.

3. HD. While I plan on getting an HDTV sometime in the next year, I do not have one yet. Yes, I have a decent computer monitor (19" LCD), but for me the best part of a console is playing it on the couch with a large TV and surround sound. If I'm hooking it up to my monitor I may as well be playing my PC. Things like the Dead Rising text issue just put that little bit of doubt in my mind about getting a 360 with only a SDTV.

4. Xbox Live. While Live is a huge selling point in the US, my experience with it for the original Xbox in Australia has not been good. When I signed up for Live at Christmas 2004, the only game with decent numbers of Aussies playing was Halo 2. This, combined with the fact that Halo 2 matchmaking has no region matchmaking option (hey Bungie - not everyone in the world is American you know), meant that I could choose to play a laggy game of Halo 2 (300-400ms perhaps) hosted on an American's box or a good game of CSS or BF2 (15-30ms) on one of our many local servers. Guess which one I chose. So far there has been no word that the Live experience in Australia is any better for the 360, so it is off the list of compelling features for me.

[ElectricMonk]

holy crap nintendo has more money in the bank than sony?

never saw that one coming

[jonat3]

holy crap nintendo has more money in the bank than sony?

never saw that one coming

Yes, fanboys that don't know anything often say that Nintendo will go the Sega route, without even realizing how big Nintendo's warchest is. I don't expect Nintendo to die anytime soon. If they managed to make money with the GC and the N64, these guys are tougher than weeds. They could have 3 failed console gens and still survive.

[Juicifer]

My favorite part of this whole who's going to win the next round of consoles thing is that everyone is looking at Sony and Microsoft. Sure they mention Nintendo, but they all think Nintendo is the little dorky kid who will get picked last to play.

Everyone thinks the winners are who ever is more popular or who sells more hardware, has the most games, etc. I think most people forget that for these companies this is a business, and you go into business to be successful. Being successful in business means making money, turning a profit.

Nintendo makes money. Period. They don't have to make up for loss on hardware with their software sales. They make money on ALL of it, and that's all that matters at the end of the day.

You want to know why they didn't try to compete with Sony and MS on graphics, horsepower,etc? It's because they know that there's no money in that right now, but you still need an edge right? That's where the new controller comes in. It's a hell of lot cheaper to come up with a new WAY to play games than it is to make them look prettier.

Nintendo will spend it's money on marketing to convince us all of this and so far so good. Sure, the Wii will become kind of a niche, but hell, you even got the higher ups at Sony and Microsoft claiming that the Wii goes good with their system, that's one hell of an endorsement. In the end they'll silently win this so called next generation by being the company that made the biggest profit.

[grunter]

...So far there has been no word that the Live experience in Australia is any better for the 360, ...
As an Aussie, I had similar dramas with Live and the xbox. Thankfully I can say it's a hell of a lot better with the 360. It's still not completely without the odd issue, but I'd say no more than I've come across playing online on the PC.

[smith186]

For the 360, price and value.

The average consumer just isn't going to buy something that's above a certain price without some very clear reasons to do so. They probably don't have a HD TV, so the HD visuals aren't going to sell them the console. They probably haven't ever hooked up a console to the internet, so Live is a non-issue (and may even be a negative - remember, the interweb is full of predators just trying to get at the children). The two different versions and all the accessories are confusing - and you know the salespeople are having a field day trying to upsell on the HDD, cables, controllers, faceplates, and the like. To top it all off, none of the games so far are really going to inspire a must-have response, and a lot of the sports games have been better received on other systems.

Put it all together and you have an expensive product that a consumer finds confusing, without any driving feature that makes it seem worth the price.

If MS really wants to move the 360 towards the masses, they'll need to make it more compelling, and less confusing. Start by getting rid of the Core system, and make the Premium an all-inclusive bundle. The HDD, a wireless controller, and the Play & Charge kit should be a part of all systems by default - it's stupid that any version doesn't have them. Include a disc with three months of Xbox Live, the headset, a free arcade game or two, and a tutorial on how to connect (and why you'd want to) to get people to give it a try. Pack in a disc stuffed to the brim with demos at the very least, or better yet, a full game (PGR, Kameo, or Perfect Dark - first party and reasonably good, all with online play). And as soon as possible, lower the price.

Of course, MS knows all this. Hell, they've pretty much done it all before with the Xbox. I don't think they're interested in really moving the systems until they can get the production costs down even further - since the PS3 is unlikely to be a major threat until this time next year they'll just keep moving at their current pace until then.

The winner for the holiday season? The PS2. The price is low, and there are a ton of games that will push the system. Final Fantasy XII and Guitar Hero II will be system movers. Grand Theft Auto is still one of the best-known games in the world, and will continue to sell the console. When it comes down to it, it really is a great value, and people know that.

[bean19]

In answer to the question in the quote above, I believe the relatively low sales of Xbox 360 can be attributed to the following:

1. The price.
2. It's made by Microsoft (or, if you prefer, Micro$oft).
3. The perceived lack of any true blockbuster mass-appeal games.
4. Sony's stranglehold on the hearts and minds of the gaming masses. Like it or not, people still believe that the PlayStation brand is what gaming is all about.
5. The failure rate of the initial shipments of Xbox 360s has likely made people think twice about shelling out $300-$400 on a new console - especially those who already own either a PS2 or Xbox.

Better analysis of factors than the source article provided.

[theguido]

1. Price
2. Lack of genre variety. All games that come out have been catering to the same audience over and over again.
3. Too many good games still coming out on PS2 to bother.
4. Lack of kid-friendly games. I've had a couple people decline buying one for this reason alone.
5. Backwards compatability issues. Telling someone that over half of their Xbox1 games won't work on the 360 makes people nervous about buying one. The PS3 approach on this is going to be much easier to swallow.
6. $60 games. This matters to some people.

[mister_slim]

MGS 4? Truth be told, Metal Gear gets alot of press, but not alot of sales. at my store it barely moves. It might be a great game, but it won't be a blockbuster seller. (if it goes multiplatform it would help broaden its exposer.) Sony is riding on its brandname and that will carry them far.
Really? How many franchises can you name that average about 6 million copies per installment?

[Norse]

I sincerely hope that the 60 dollar game thing is one of the problems with people refusing to upgrade to the next-gen. I hope this becomes a prominent issue so publishers start pricing games accordingly. It's just too much money for a game, and in adulthood, where I can afford more games than I could as a teen, I actually purchase less now. It's hard for me to justify games for my 360, whether I want to play them or not. The whole Marvel: Ultimate Alliance being 20 bucks more on the 360 really chaps my ass.

But people are cows and they'll eat it up, so I doubt this will ever change. I just hope it does get labeled as oneof the deterrents of the next-gen so someone will start taking notice.

From Gamerscore Blog (http://www.gamerscoreblog.com):
Key profit drivers for the platform include Xbox 360 software and accessory attach rates, which remain very strong relative to previous console launches. The Xbox 360 accessory attach rate remains the highest ever for the first ten months after a console launch in the US, holding at 2.9 accessory units sold per console (Source: NPD). Software attach rates rose to a record 5.1 units per console (Source: NPD).
To date, there have been a staggering 12 million Xbox Live Arcade downloads. All told, more than 2 billion Microsoft points have been sold to date.

With such a high attachment rate, game publisher won't see any need for a lower price. And with all the MS points sold, publishers will also continue to exploit the marketplace.

[bean19]

1. Price
2. Lack of genre variety. All games that come out have been catering to the same audience over and over again.
3. Too many good games still coming out on PS2 to bother.
4. Lack of kid-friendly games. I've had a couple people decline buying one for this reason alone.
5. Backwards compatability issues. Telling someone that over half of their Xbox1 games won't work on the 360 makes people nervous about buying one. The PS3 approach on this is going to be much easier to swallow.
6. $60 games. This matters to some people.

Also very good analysis.

2. They obviously have tons of shooters, racing games, puzzle games (through Xbox Live), open-world games (Godfather, Just Cause, & GTA IV upcoming) and sports titles, but the other genres definitely need more titles:

RPGs: Oblivion, Phantasy Star Universe, and Enchanged Arms - Do you think that Blue Dragon, Lost Oddysey, & Mass Effect will be enough to attract RPG-gamers next year? I know I bought the system for (among other things) these upcoming Mistwalker and Bioware RPGs.

Adventure (Action): Kameo, Marvel: Ultimate Alliance (but only sort of as it is an Action RPG). . . can't really think of anything coming out to broaden this genre - they could definitely use more of these - maybe even a really solid platformer. There is Resident Evil 5 coming up - but that could also be called a shooter. . . It's not a Mario, Ratchet & Clank, DMC, or a Zelda. Plus RE5 is cross-platform.

Children's Games: Kameo (not just for children - but appropriate for them) & Viva Pinata and then nothing to speak of after Viva Pinata. Though if the Viva Pinata cartoon does really well, then we might see a long line of Viva Pinata titles. I'd like to see more adventure games that are appropriate for children and adults alike as they would fill in two genres (plus the really good ones like Zelda and Ratchet & Clank are all excellent).

They really don't penetrate these other genres very well. . . but I wonder how well the other systems will have done this only in their first year out. Obviously the Wii will have more penetration in the 360's deficient genres, but won't people be saying that the Wii is weak in the categories where the Xbox excels? Also, I think the PS3 will be weak in the same genres that the 360 is weak in now only a year after it's release.

[Balthasar]

They really don't penetrate these other genres very well. . . but I wonder how well the other systems will have done this only in their first year out. Obviously the Wii will have more penetration in the 360's deficient genres, but won't people be saying that the Wii is weak in the categories where the Xbox excels? Also, I think the PS3 will be weak in the same genres that the 360 is weak in now only a year after it's release.
What they have in their first year out is not as critical for the Wii and PS3 as it is for the 360. Gamers already know the PS3 and Wii will have their Zeldas and Ratchet and Clanks. The XBox has never established franchises like that, so no one can go into purchasing the console with confidence that they're ever going to get that type of game (at that quality, to boot).

[Virtual Machine]

Bottom line - there's really not much for the masses to get excited about on the 360 from a software standpoint. There's Halo 3, and... well... there's Halo 3. Microsoft has yet to establish any single game as a system seller - Gears of War won't be it, Rainbow Six: Vegas won't be it, Viva Pinata DEFINITELY won't be it. The launch lineup was stagnant, and while there have been some amazing games released for the 360 in the interim (GRAW, Oblivion - best game of 06, Dead Rising, Saint's Row) there just hasn't been anything to grab the public consciousness. The 360 is the console that 18-30 year old males get together and talk about. It's basically trudging down the same Sega-ish path that the first Xbox did. I just hope the 360 doesn't become the Dreamcast to The original Xbox's Genesis.

Microsoft needs Halo - desperately. They need that degree of hype to get this machine off the ground. GTA4 is coming sure - but the public already perceives that one as a Sony franchise, and i'm willing to bet the PS3 version will sell 2 copies to every one purchased on the 360. Fable? Too many burned with the fist game in the series. Forza Motorsport 2? I can't wait! But it's a niche title. Halo Wars? maybe... but unlikely unless they can capture the feel and accessibility of a Blizzard RTS on a controller. What else is there? Really? Bioshock? Kane & Lynch? ha ha ha!! The games may be amazing, but their very existence is far from common knowledge.

[bean19]

Balthasar - Good point. I think Kameo is a good entry, but I think you need several good new IPs to even begin to get near the weight of an established iconic IP and Kameo, while really good, isn't Zelda.

Virtual Machine - They actually don't "desperately" need Halo. 6 million shipped as of June 30 and Microsoft reporting that number having been actually SOLD last month is a pretty good number and I expect it to rise to about 9-10 million through the holiday season.

You're right that they could use an established IP to sell systems, but I think some of their excellent new IPs are already selling systems. Dead Rising, Saint's Row, and Gears of War are all system-sellers. They just aren't nearly as powerful as Halo, Final Fantasy, or Zelda.

[CptTripps]

And though I am loathe to admit it, Sony may have already won on goodwill alone. Nintendo and Microsoft cut their old console support off like a malignant growth. How many good PS2 titles have just been released, and are on the horizon? There are a lot of good first and second party games coming to the PS2. That tells people that their "investment" will last longer than 3-4 years like the Xbox and Wii.

I do not understand your reasoning, did you only look at the PS2 release list and just make assumptions about XBOX releases?

Look at last weeks PS2 release list from GAME.

Canis Canem Edit (AKA Bully)
Pippa Funnell Takes the Reins
Mortal Kombat: Armageddon - Also on XBOX
Singstar Legends Solus
Singstar Legends with Microphones
Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell: Double Agent - Also on XBOX
Family Guy - Also on XBOX
The Legend of Spyro: A New Beginning - Also on XBOX
Pro Evolution Soccer 6


The only one I am bummed I can't get is Bully.
Aside from that, also released on XBOX (original) recently are.

Just Cause
Scarface
Tiger Woods PGA Tour 07
Destroy All Humans 2
Justice League : Heroes
Resevoir Dogs
Marvel : Ultimate Alliance
Fifa Soccer 07
And multiple NBA 07 titles

Coming soon to XBOX....

NFS Carbon
ERAGON
COD 3
TH Project 8
Teen Titans
Superman Returns
And more....

Soooo...............

In conclusion, your statement about the PS2 releases is either very biased, or you just did no research to support your claims. Yes the PS2 lineup is good, but the original XBOX owner has not been left to die and have many good games coming their way. Does it really matter if these titles are 1st party? No... just that they are good games and being released on your system. 3-4 years my ass.