Microsoft to Miss X360 Targets By Up To 25%

[Guy Mariano]

From biz.yahoo (http://biz.yahoo.com/seekingalpha/061025/19252_id.html?.v=1)
Colin Sebastian at Lazard Capital Markets has warned that he expects Microsoft's XBox 360 shipments to only total 4.5 million for the year, instead of the 5 million expected. That says to me that the XBox 360 marketing plan is fading fast.

Why? People forget that the original projection for XBox 360 sales was for 5.5 to 6 million within six months of launch. That projection was re-iterated in January this year, but extended out to 5.5 million by July. And now, we're looking at 4.5 million for the year. Ouch.

We'll know more after Microsoft announces earnings tomorrow.

I guess Sony and MS aren't that good at targets. Hopefully Nintendo can show them how to do it

[Kamalot]

First one to 10 million units WINS!

Everyone else can just go home. :D

[Norse]

I thought MS had shipped 5million or so by June :confused:

[bapenguin]

I thought MS had shipped 5million or so by June :confused:

I think that was Shipped to date. This is talking about this year. Remember there were about 2 million sold in the first month and a half before the new year.

[Busted_Astromech]

I've said it before and it bears repeating: I think the reason the 360 is not doing well compared to other launches in this timeframe is not its market position, not the platform, or the games, but the price. I honestly don't think people are willing to pay $400 for a console yet, and it's hurting them. I do think that Microsoft remains in a position to steal the thunder from the PS3, but only once the price drops start appearing.

I refuse to speculate on the success of the Wii. I want it to do good (as I do love Nintendo), but after being shocked at the GameCube finishing third behind the Xbox and the unkown factor of a new console that doesn't focus on graphics, I think predictions are delving too deep into unknown territory.

[soco]

i'm relatively certain his number is in regards to the US alone. not sure why any analyst would look at it that way.

[Citizen Philip]

I weep for all the mega corporations and their ability to make, or not make, targeted revenue goals.

Truly people! The difference between the 190 foot Yacht with a crew of 20 and the 210 foot Yacht with a crew of 25 and a cabin for the captain is growing concern that we should all be aware of.

[The Iron Weasel]

Isn't this just an analyst guessing that they won't meet it?

[Heretic Machine]

Whee, analysts: Declaring winners before the race begins! Honestly, there is absolutely no way to predict the outcome of this generation before Crhistmas '07, and that is pushing it. Summer '08 is the date that we can look at and say, "Well, someone here is winning this."

[Johan]

Citizen Philip ^^^Wins the thread!

I want to throw more money at such multimillionaires! Charge even more, please! ;)

MS has screwed up, just like Sony has had some screwups...launching a console is tough business.

[Camel]

Whee, analysts: Declaring winners before the race begins! Honestly, there is absolutely no way to predict the outcome of this generation before Crhistmas '07, and that is pushing it. Summer '08 is the date that we can look at and say, "Well, someone here is winning this."
I think there needs to be a banner on the site somewhere saying this. Just like how right now we need a banner saying "Don't judge your consoles before they're released."

[Borys]

Halo 3 FTW. Simply put there's no other way.

[Jnmshore]

I've said it before and it bears repeating: I think the reason the 360 is not doing well compared to other launches in this timeframe is not its market position, not the platform, or the games, but the price. I honestly don't think people are willing to pay $400 for a console yet, and it's hurting them. I do think that Microsoft remains in a position to steal the thunder from the PS3, but only once the price drops start appearing.


I agree, I hven't bought a 360 yet, and just for that reason. Not that I'm biding my time waiting for a price drop... but because I'm a broke college student. I own a wireless controler, memory card, and 2 games for the 360. Since I can play on a friends system. I liken it to making payments on a future purchase. I don't think any of the next-gen systems aren't worth the money... I just don't have it, also since I don't have an HDTV I've never gotten all worked up over any of those debates. They sort of fly right over my head...err financial bracket.

[The-Builder]

Nintendo just might end up overshooting their target.

[DevilUknow]

wait a mo'.

They sold 4.5m and they expected to sell 5m and they missed by 25%?

I'm confused.

Should that be, they want to sell 6m or that they missed it by 10%?

[Varsity]

It's 10%, not 25%, unless you specify the ORIGINAL targets.

[phantomhitman]

i read on the internets that %67.2 of all numbers are made up.

[Gorvi]

Whats keeping the 360 sales slow is exactly what kept the XBOX sales slow : the PS2. Upgrading to a new system wasn't really needed, as the console that most people owned still had/has a healthy roster of solid to great games being released. When the PS2 releases start dwindling next year, we'll start seeing sales on all the next gen consoles go up, coincedently, just as the PS3 is getting into steady production and stores are being more consistantly stocked.

[CptTripps]

i read on the internets that %67.2 of all numbers are made up.

Hahaha nice one, I'm positive that %42.3 of the EvAv readers will agree with you.

[IrishWhiskey]

Lets face it, there is little reason for most consumer to pony up 400 for a console (closer to 600 with games and accessories) with possibly a few thousands needed for a HDTV (yes I know its not required, but why would you really have to upgrade otherwise).

The 360s competition is, and will continue to be, the DS and the PS2, not the Wii or PS3 (although the Wii could change rapidly). These are basic, easy to understand systems with tons of popular games, priced right for entry level consumers.



I was helping two guys at Best Buy pick out a 360 last week (Thank god there were no employees around). Keep in mind, they had owned an Xbox, played Halo 2 Online, and were about 24 years old, college educated, and computer and tech literate. Neither was dumb

They didn't know what Microsoft points were. They didn't know how many controllers you could use. They didn't know the difference between Live Gold and Silver. They didn't know that its meant to be used with a HDTV. They didn't know it could be used with a computer monitor. They didn't know if it was backward compatible. They didn't know if it played HD-DVDs. They were going to get the Core. Keep in mind, these guys were getting it for online and multiplayer gaming.

When they showed me the games they had picked up for it, it was FIFA and Ghost Recon. For the Xbox. Really. They were going to get a 360 with original Xbox games.


These guys are smarter and more experienced with games than the average consumer. Which is why debating the niceties of the 360 being pretty equal to the PS3 doesn't matter. Retailers will use Sony's Fact Sheet. Some will put it on display. And consumers are likely to buy Next-gen, not because of its capabilities, but because of the hype, and because "the guy down the street owns it".

[Kamalot]

I've said it before and it bears repeating: I think the reason the 360 is not doing well compared to other launches in this timeframe is not its market position, not the platform, or the games, but the price. I honestly don't think people are willing to pay $400 for a console yet, and it's hurting them.Interesting theory. Perhaps the 360 will look like a bargain when the $600-$500 PS3 is available.

[bKangy]

Market analysts? I'll wait until we get actual number, kthx.

[BenN1ce]

wait a mo'.

They sold 4.5m and they expected to sell 5m and they missed by 25%?

I'm confused.

Should that be, they want to sell 6m or that they missed it by 10%?

They are going off there orignal target that they lowered and still haven't reached. So original projection 6 mil...now they are projecting 4.5 which is off 25%. At least I think that's how they got that figure.

[AspectVoid]

wait a mo'.

They sold 4.5m and they expected to sell 5m and they missed by 25%?

I'm confused.

Should that be, they want to sell 6m or that they missed it by 10%?


That's because you read the article wrong. This is where they were referring to the 25% issue:

Why? People forget that the original projection for XBox 360 sales was for 5.5 to 6 million within six months of launch. That projection was re-iterated in January this year, but extended out to 5.5 million by July.

That 6 months of launch is the key. The X360 was released almost a year ago. In that yeah, they've had 4.5 million compared to the 5.5 million they projected for 6 months. Most likely (I have not done the math) they reached the 25% by determining the difference in console sales per month of their projections compared to what they actually were.

[menage]

As long as good games keep appearing, I couldn't care less about half a million more or less sold for MS or Sony. I'm getting sick of these kind of figures, analyses, my daddy is better than your daddy attitudes.

I just want to play games.

[Roc Ingersol]

It would be really nice if there were more than a handful of good games for the 360, and they didn't keep trying to sell the new ones for $60 goddamn dollars.

I'm enjoying my 360, but I can't honestly say it's worth buying just yet.

[Phades]

I've been really enjoying my 360 and turn it on just about every night. Very pleased with the purchase.

Of course, I'm also that guy that will be waiting in line for the PS3 on launch day and buys every single console eventually..... So take that for what it's worth.

[wyeast]

I'm not terribly surprised. I remember when they first started putting out projections on how many they'd sell after I year I told myself they weren't going to make it. Low production #'s, higher prices, and poor showing of game titles through the summer really gimped 360's launch relative to where they could be given they had a year all to themselves.

I mean it's great and I love mine - but I knew they were smoking rock when they were making predictions like that. :D

[Kelegacy]

Halo 3 FTW. Simply put there's no other way.
I'm telling you, change the name of the machine to HaloBox. It's the one game that the 360's, like the Xbox's, success will be measured.

I don't care what people say. When you ask a layman on the street about the Xbox, and demand he mentions any Xbox game in the world, he'll say Halo. He might even be hard pressed to think of any other game that is on the Xbox besides the Halos.

Xbox is synonymous with Halo. Without it, forget it.

[Dag-Sabot]

So Id say a 25% shortfall in manufacturing for MS is not so critical for as they have a huge advantage over Sony by having hit the market first what with the attach rate and so on and so forth. Also, those figures were likely issued previous to and intended as counter to Sony's spring launch fakie.

In stark contrast:

Listening to the BBC this morning i learned that SONY is projecting losses in excess of 150M fo the end of this quarter. I was making porrige at the time but I managed to gather that this time last year they were kicking butt in the profit dept. I wonder how much they'll borrow...

[Norse]

I've been really enjoying my 360 and turn it on just about every night. Very pleased with the purchase.

Of course, I'm also that guy that will be waiting in line for the PS3 on launch day and buys every single console eventually..... So take that for what it's worth.

I use my 360 almost everyday too. I've haven't had this much fun gaming since the good old C64 days actually. I'm sure I'll end up buying the PS3 sooner or later too. The only thing that bothers me is the price. I've no problem to afford it, but it just feels a bit much for a games console. Here in Norway it'll cost twice as much as the X360, and I find that hard to swallow.

[Heretic Machine]

I'm telling you, change the name of the machine to HaloBox. It's the one game that the 360's, like the Xbox's, success will be measured.

I don't care what people say. When you ask a layman on the street about the Xbox, and demand he mentions any Xbox game in the world, he'll say Halo. He might even be hard pressed to think of any other game that is on the Xbox besides the Halos.

Xbox is synonymous with Halo. Without it, forget it.

Like the PS2 is synomnymous with Grand Theft Auto. And in some circles, Final Fantasy. And Nintendo, no matter what console, is always thought of as "The Mario box."

[The Iron Weasel]

I'm telling you, change the name of the machine to HaloBox. It's the one game that the 360's, like the Xbox's, success will be measured.

I don't care what people say. When you ask a layman on the street about the Xbox, and demand he mentions any Xbox game in the world, he'll say Halo. He might even be hard pressed to think of any other game that is on the Xbox besides the Halos.

Xbox is synonymous with Halo. Without it, forget it.
Like Final Fantasy and Playstation or Mario and Nintendo?

Edit: Perigon beat me to it.

[BenN1ce]

Like the PS2 is synomnymous with Grand Theft Auto. And in some circles, Final Fantasy. And Nintendo, no matter what console, is always thought of as "The Mario box."

Sony has way more popular franchise games than Xbox and Nintendo is obvious. Other than Halo there really wasn't much maybe Forza, Fable, Ninja Gaiden i'm sure there is a few others but not many.

[Balthasar]

Interesting theory. Perhaps the 360 will look like a bargain when the $600-$500 PS3 is available.
I don't think it will be the same with the PS3. I think the PS3 is extremely bolstered by it's immediate access to current-gen games because of its BC. It's not just that people aren't very willing to buy a $400-$600 console. It's that no one is crazy about buying $60 games. You only have to buy the console once, but if you plan on getting full use out of it, you have to invest in those games which are, quite frankly, too expensive for the current market. It doesn't help when multi-platform games come out and a buyer sees the same game on all consoles, but the 360 version sometimes $20 more. There are still plenty of gamers out there without PS2s (which you can surmise based on the PS2's continued success to this day) and still more games coming out for it. Those same gamers might say to themselves "I should just get the new PS3 so I can play all the older stuff I'm really interested and maybe get some of these newer games down the road."

I think the biggest obsticle facing the PS3 is the price for the console itself. If it were priced the same as the 360, I'd put money down that we wouldn't be asking ourselves in 2007 if the PS3 will surpass the 360 in sales, but simply when.

[bapenguin]

Listening to the BBC this morning i learned that SONY is projecting losses in excess of 150M fo the end of this quarter. I was making porrige at the time but I managed to gather that this time last year they were kicking butt in the profit dept. I wonder how much they'll borrow...

If they sell out of all 500,000 launch units, that's an estimated 100Million dollar loss right there.

[Jack B]

I think $400 is pricing a number of people out of the market. I believe the PS3 will face some of the same issues at $500 and $600 price points. There are only so many people willing to spend $400 or more for a console.

Both the 360 and PS3 need price drops and some high quality games to jump start sales. The games are getting there, but I think price drops may be the key.

It could be that many consumers are waiting for the holiday season to make a decision. If so, that's likely good for the 360 with bigger supplies, but I'm starting to wonder if the price of hardware and the extra $10 or so for next gen games is keeping most of the people on the fence.

Also, many don't have HDTV's yet, which is required (unless you use a computer monitor) to really see a significant difference in graphics. Maybe holiday 2007 is when things really heat up.

[Uniqueusername]

I've said it before and it bears repeating: I think the reason the 360 is not doing well compared to other launches in this timeframe is not its market position, not the platform, or the games, but the price. I honestly don't think people are willing to pay $400 for a console yet, and it's hurting them.
I'd agree with that.

I've actually been expecting the Core pack to drop to $250 to match the Wii, but IMHO they should have done it already. They really needed to have a cheap 360 on offer at least 2 weeks before people could get any other next-gen console, so everyone had at least one pay packet where they had to turn down the 360 with no other options. ;)

[Gorvi]

If they sell out of all 500,000 launch units, that's an estimated 100Million dollar loss right there.

Which was more than likely taken into account in the losses that were reported.

[BenN1ce]

I think $400 is pricing a number of people out of the market. I believe the PS3 will face some of the same issues at $500 and $600 price points. There are only so many people willing to spend $400 or more for a console.

Both the 360 and PS3 need price drops and some high quality games to jump start sales. The games are getting there, but I think price drops may be the key.



I totally agree. The initial PS3's will sell but it won't start catching speed until 2008 since I don't see them price dropping in 2007 although they should. Next year X360 will obviously price drop likely with Halo maybe? Unless they are idiots and that will boost sales. The only advantage I see that Sony has is I do think the console will have a longer shelf life overall than the X360 because it has better technology overall IMO.

[DeadlyDonkey]

Like the PS2 is synomnymous with Grand Theft Auto. And in some circles, Final Fantasy. And Nintendo, no matter what console, is always thought of as "The Mario box."

Except the PS2 was already miles ahead of the competition in console sales and users before GTA came out. Xbox pretty much relied on Halo.

[Jack B]

I'd agree with that.

I've actually been expecting the Core pack to drop to $250 to match the Wii, but IMHO they should have done it already. They really needed to have a cheap 360 on offer at least 2 weeks before people could get any other next-gen console, so everyone had at least one pay packet where they had to turn down the 360 with no other options. ;)

I would like to see the core disappear and the Premium get priced at $250 (probably not going to happen soon) or $300 (very possible).

I believe the core is the reason for the 50mb arcade restriction. I wish they'd just have 50mb arcade games and then bigger like Lumines at 150mb or whatever they need. The core owners would still get some 50mb games, but developers would then be able to work with more storage if needed.

[Skampy]

Companies set unrealistic goals, in hopes that they can make it happen. Microsoft and Sony are innovating companies and always strive to be able to make the extra buck. Every company sets really high goals. That's the only way they make money.

[Roc Ingersol]

Also, many don't have HDTV's yet, which is required (unless you use a computer monitor) to really see a significant difference in graphics.
I keep reading this, and it's simply not true.

There's still a huge jump in visible texture quality, model geometry, view distance, number of objects on-screen, physics interaction, etc.

all of that is potential, of course; some games don't seem to be really trying (pdk0/prey), and some games just aren't about graphics/ai/physics (e.g. Lego SWII).

But games like Bioshock, Mass Effect, Oblivion, and HL2 Ep2 are vastly improved over their last-gen analogues, even in SD.

[51|RandoM]

I've said it before and it bears repeating: I think the reason the 360 is not doing well compared to other launches in this timeframe is not its market position, not the platform, or the games, but the price. I honestly don't think people are willing to pay $400 for a console yet, and it's hurting them.


You can't really separate price from the platform and the games, imho. If the 360 had more great games, more people would be willing to buy it.

They're banking pretty heavily on Gears, hope that works out for them(and for us).

[Roc Ingersol]

I would like to see the core disappear and the Premium get priced at $250 (probably not going to happen soon) or $300 (very possible).
They're gonna hold onto that core pack forever, simply because it costs them very little to offer it, and it allows them to advertise a lower price point.

I think the arcade restriction is more about trying to maintain a market distinction between 'real' games and Arcade games. I wouldn't be surprised if that changed in the not-too-distant future.

[Telefrog]

The 50MB restriction is completely crazy. Granted, I wouldn't want to download 2-3GB games over Live, but I regularly download demos and videos well in excess of 200-300MB.

[51|RandoM]

When Microsoft releases their handheld that will play any XBLA title, the 50MB limit among other things will start making much more sense.

:-)

[dr_wily]

50meg limit is due to the memory card, not your bandwidth or size of hd.

it will be interesting to see if history repeats. since the bazillion that own a ps1 bought a ps2 who will buy a ps3.. to basically to continue the compatibility of legacy playstation games.. almost a no brainer for them if they got the cash.

i missed out of the ps2, hopefully they will get even cheaper so i can go back and play some of the highlights someday.

[Jack B]

I keep reading this, and it's simply not true.

There's still a huge jump in visible texture quality, model geometry, view distance, number of objects on-screen, physics interaction, etc.

all of that is potential, of course; some games don't seem to be really trying (pdk0/prey), and some games just aren't about graphics/ai/physics (e.g. Lego SWII).

But games like Bioshock, Mass Effect, Oblivion, and HL2 Ep2 are vastly improved over their last-gen analogues, even in SD.

I have a 360 and love it, but I said, "see a significant difference in graphics". I understand there are a ton of advantages to gameplay and the 360 Live service etc, compared to the origninal Xbox or PS2, but many people take a look at the graphics and just don't "see a significant difference". On an HDTV is very obvious, but without one, the graphics difference isn't nearly as dramatic.

I'm sold, but I have and HDTV. Dead Rising's text is a good example or Chromehounds text on the weapons indicators. Or the Chromehounds land mines. I can see the land mines on my HDTV without a land mine detector. The standard tv people don't see the detail well enough, so they need a land mine detector on their mech.

That's what I mean about "a significant difference". There are a ton of other differences, that I've promoted on many a thread, but the average consumer isn't biting yet.

Maybe they need a price drop. Maybe they need an HDTV. Maybe they need some better games, but somethings missing so far for most consumers.

[Roc Ingersol]

I have a 360 and love it, but I said, "see a significant difference in graphics". I understand there are a ton of advantages to gameplay and the 360 Live service etc, compared to the origninal Xbox or PS2, but many people take a look at the graphics and just don't "see a significant difference".
But that's what I'm saying: All those other things kick into graphics.
The physics interactions make for explosions and bad-guy ragdoll detail that's head and shoulders above the old box. The polys and textures and particle effects and available crowd sizes don't require HD to appreciate either.
I've got an SD-TV. The increase is more visible than the advantage the XBox had over PS2.

I think the market hold-up is all about the pricing and the games.

HD-TV can't solve anything, because HD-TV sales are being held up by price themselves.

[Borys]

Core Pack at $249 or $229 would do wonders, Jack B. Not to mention the magic $199 price...

[Major Dan]

Halo 3 FTW. Simply put there's no other way.

QFT. Add a price drop and they wont be able to make enough 360s ;)

[Busted_Astromech]

You can't really separate price from the platform and the games, imho. If the 360 had more great games, more people would be willing to buy it.

They're banking pretty heavily on Gears, hope that works out for them(and for us).
Ehh, I disagree. As I see it, Microsoft's played it as well as can be expected so far. The games may have been slow but I'd argue it's seen better releases than the PS2 in the same time period. And given that, I think the reason it's not doing so well is not because people are holding out for the PS3, but that people are holding out for either of them to become affordable.

Still, those who know little about video games tend to place a lot of emphasis on graphics (or what has the image of being powerful), so I don't believe it necessarily means they'll automatically turn to the cheaper Wii. But it does give Nintendo an opening.

I honestly don't see Sony doing nearly as well as they expect. That price just breaks so many psychological barriers that I think it'll outweigh brand loyalty. But who knows.

[alldat360]

here is a link to a washington post news article.
6million 360,s sold (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/26/AR2006102601123.html)

[Jack B]

But that's what I'm saying: All those other things kick into graphics.
The physics interactions make for explosions and bad-guy ragdoll detail that's head and shoulders above the old box. The polys and textures and particle effects and available crowd sizes don't require HD to appreciate either.
I've got an SD-TV. The increase is more visible than the advantage the XBox had over PS2.

I think the market hold-up is all about the pricing and the games.

HD-TV can't solve anything, because HD-TV sales are being held up by price themselves.

I definitely agree with you, but you're preaching to the choir, so to speak. I just believe that many consumers, want to wait to get an HDTV, because they've heard it's sooo much better than SD.

[Johan]

here is a link to a washington post news article.
6million 360,s sold (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/26/AR2006102601123.html)

Interesting....

Well, thanks for playing. Thread closed, eh?! :eek:

This is why I HATE playing numbers-games....everyone has a different number, and whether it's shipped or sold through or sitting in a damn box on a boat between Taiwan and CA...byaaaaaaahhhhhh! (Howard Dean). :(

[51|RandoM]

Eh, I disagree. As I see it, Microsoft's played it as well as can be expected so far. The games may have been slow but I'd argue it's seen better releases than the PS2 in the same time period. And given that, I think the reason it's not doing so well is not because people are holding out for the PS3, but that people are holding out for either of them to become affordable.


You don't think there could be better games for the 360, and more of them? You don't think that a better library would help justify the entry cost?

If I felt that way I'd just sell the 360 now and move on.

I wasn't judging Microsoft's performance, I was just saying that better games and more of them would make the entry price less of an issue.

The 360 isn't that much more expensive than the ps2 was. Just save up an extra month, don't buy a couple games and you end up spending the same amount of money.

The PS3 is a tougher pill to swallow, obviously. It has the momentum of ps1-->ps2-->ps3 going for it though, which will sell it to plenty of people even at the high pricepoint.

[Jack B]

Core Pack at $249 or $229 would do wonders, Jack B. Not to mention the magic $199 price...

I'd agree. I'd like to see the core either disappear or go to $199. It could happen. Microsoft was supposedly renegotiating with a bunch of suppliers and starting to build the smaller .65 chip size. I think it's a question of "when" and "how" much they drop their price.

I think it will be soon after Sony starts to get ahead of their inventory issues. As long as shelves are bare of PS3's, I think they'll wait on the price drop. Once PS3's are readilly available Microsft will offer a price drop.

If they don't do it by the end of this calendar year, chances are they won' hit their 10m by the end of the year prediction, although they could get close.

[Jack B]

here is a link to a washington post news article.
6million 360,s sold (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/26/AR2006102601123.html)

Yes, those numbers of 6 million since launch are official ( see Microsoft Earnings Release (https://www.microsoft.co.ke/msft/earnings/FY07/earn_rel_q1_07.mspx) ) thru September. His 4.5 million number is this calendar year thru September. Add in anouther 1.8 million for Nov-Dec of last year.

Since they are at 6 million WW as of Sept 31st, then I guess they still do have a shot at 10 million. They'd have to sell 4 million in the 3 months between now and December. Last year they sold just under 2 million for the 6 weeks of Nov 21st to Dec 31st. This year with more inventory, a better library and Gears of War, they could better than number, but could they go from 2 million to 4 million? They do have 3 months to do 4 million, where they did almost 2 million in half that time last year...

I'll guess they end up somewhere between 8 and 10 million for the year. Probably closer to 9 million Worldwide.

[TheFlyingOrc]

Interesting....

Well, thanks for playing. Thread closed, eh?! :eek:

This is why I HATE playing numbers-games....everyone has a different number, and whether it's shipped or sold through or sitting in a damn box on a boat between Taiwan and CA...byaaaaaaahhhhhh! (Howard Dean). :(

Not at all, sir - you simply assumed the original article meant something it did not.

He says he only projects 4.5 million FOR THE YEAR - not "for the year since launch". That either means for 2006 or for the fiscal year, which should have started in March.

He jumps reference frames several times in the article, which is why it's pretty confusing.

[TheFlyingOrc]

Plus, who knows how many of the article author's numbers are worldwide, and how many are US only.

Also, I've always found it silly when Microsoft said they were the fastest selling console ever. Had the PS2 launched in Japan, NA, and Europe at the same time with adaquate stock, it clearly would have been the fastest selling.

[Kamalot]

Yes, those numbers of 6 million since launch are official ( see Microsoft Earnings Release (https://www.microsoft.co.ke/msft/earnings/FY07/earn_rel_q1_07.mspx) ) thru September. His 4.5 million number is this calendar year thru September. Add in anouther 1.8 million for Nov-Dec of last year.

Since they at 6 million WW as of Sept 31st, then I guess they still do have a shot at 10 million. They'd have to sell 4 million in the 3 months between now and December. Last year they sold just under 2 million for the 6 weeks of Nov 21st to Dec 31st. This year with more inventory, a better library and Gears of War, they could better than number, but could they go from 2 million to 4 million? They do have 3 months to do 4 million, where they did almost 2 million in half that time last year...

I'll guess they end up somewhere between 8 and 10 million for the year. Probably closer to 9 million Worldwide.

Jack...Jack...Jack...

I don't know where I'd be in this sea of numbers and spin without your thoughtful analysis.

Thanks!

[TrackZero]

As long as good games keep appearing, I couldn't care less about half a million more or less sold for MS or Sony. I'm getting sick of these kind of figures, analyses, my daddy is better than your daddy attitudes.

I just want to play games.

Well said. Analysts know shit all anyways.

[JimmyDanger]

Plus, who knows how many of the article author's numbers are worldwide, and how many are US only.

Also, I've always found it silly when Microsoft said they were the fastest selling console ever. Had the PS2 launched in Japan, NA, and Europe at the same time with adaquate stock, it clearly would have been the fastest selling.

So if one company coordinates production/supply issues (to a certain extent - MS still ended up short of what they could have sold Xmas 06) BEFORE they launch their console - it's cheating?

[Jack B]

Jack...Jack...Jack...

I don't know where I'd be in this sea of numbers and spin without your thoughtful analysis.

Thanks!

Thanks. I read a lot of SEC filings and earnings releases for my job...

They rarely give you the exact details you want and they tend to present/spin the numbers that show them in the best light, but lying to the SEC is bad news, so you can't count on decent numbers.

[mindstrike]

I'd agree. I'd like to see the core either disappear or go to $199. It could happen. Microsoft was supposedly renegotiating with a bunch of suppliers and starting to build the smaller .65 chip size. I think it's a question of "when" and "how" much they drop their price.

Well I dont see this happening, for a extra 100 smackers you can get the harddrive. And be 100 under the premium... (negate the wireless controller and HD cable)

Both will have to drop... At some point I really would like to get a 360, for I have played TDU and ChromeHounds, and I enjoy these titles very much on my buds machine. GoW/Superman have piqued my interest, and we play 4 player 'Ockey when the "boys" are over. (As for Madden... jebus too many things.. bring back Jon Elway's Quarterback!)

I am hopful for a special deal whe GoW comes out.. so hang on...

[JimmyDanger]

Looking at cumulative sales numbers for PS3...MS don't seem to be doing too bad
(these figures are from Wikipedia tho ..so take them for what you will)

2000/03/06 720,000 units (Japan only)
2000/03/15 1 million units (Japan only)
2000/03/31 1.41 million units (Japan only)
2000/05/24 2 million units (Japan only)
2000/06/30 2.54 million units (Japan only)
2000/08/01 3 million units (Japan only)
2000/09/30 3.52 million units (Japan only)
2000/12/31 6.4 million units (Japan: 3.94 million/ USA: 1.46 million/ Europe: 1.0 million)
2001/03/23 10.04 million units (Japan: 4.65 million/ USA: 2.76 million/ Europe: 2.63 million)

So Sony sold almost as many PS2's 3 months after new year as in the 2+ months after launch in the USA - and by these figures..

2000/12/31 6.4 million units (Japan: 3.94 million/ USA: 1.46 million/ Europe: 1.0 million)
2001/03/23 10.04 million units (Japan: 4.65 million/ USA: 2.76 million/ Europe: 2.63 million)
2001/03/31 10.61 million units (Japan: 4.75 million/ USA: 3.01 million/ Europe: 2.85 million)
2001/06/30 14.95 million units (Japan: 5.94 million/ USA: 5.15 million/ Europe: 3.86 million)
2001/09/30 19.57 million units (Japan: 6.85 million/ USA: 8.24 million/ Europe: 4.48 million)
2001/10/10 20.04 million units (Japan: 6.86 million/ USA: 8.55 million/ Europe: 4.63 million)
2001/12/31 24.99 million units (Japan: 8.30 million/ USA: 9.87 million/ Europe: 6.82 million)

almost 10 million 15 months after launch in the USA...Seems to me if MS hit 10 million by Jan/Feb in the USA - they're keeping pace.

It may be important to note tho - all these original sales were at $300US...

# US$299.99 (October 26, 2000, Launch Price) (CAD$449.99)
# US$199.99 (May 14, 2002) (CAD$299.99)

.....Still too early to say too much - it's apples and oranges...but interesting to read nonetheless

EDIT - The cumulative sales figures are from Sony (http://www.scei.co.jp/corporate/data/bizdataps2_e.html) themselves - linked from Wiki - and are on shipped - not sold units...

[Busted_Astromech]

You don't think there could be better games for the 360, and more of them? You don't think that a better library would help justify the entry cost?
Not at all. I just think the library has been, by historical standards, 'adequate.' I don't think that it can be an effective hypothesis as to why the 360 has underperformed so far.

I wasn't judging Microsoft's performance, I was just saying that better games and more of them would make the entry price less of an issue.

The 360 isn't that much more expensive than the ps2 was. Just save up an extra month, don't buy a couple games and you end up spending the same amount of money.

The PS3 is a tougher pill to swallow, obviously. It has the momentum of ps1-->ps2-->ps3 going for it though, which will sell it to plenty of people even at the high pricepoint.
Well, of course having more/better games would sell more consoles. But I don't think most people look at it as slightly more expensive than the PS2 was. Most people just think it's either too expensive or not. That's certainly the reaction I've got from people: a calm acceptance or amazement. And I can tell you which of the two wouldn't be buying a 360. It's that question of whether most people think $400 is worth spending on a toy. And I think, with little scientific backing, that neither Microsoft or Sony is going to see the market take off until they get back down to $300 levels.

[Jack B]

Well I dont see this happening, for a extra 100 smackers you can get the harddrive. And be 100 under the premium... (negate the wireless controller and HD cable)

Both will have to drop... At some point I really would like to get a 360, for I have played TDU and ChromeHounds, and I enjoy these titles very much on my buds machine. GoW/Superman have piqued my interest, and we play 4 player 'Ockey when the "boys" are over. (As for Madden... jebus too many things.. bring back Jon Elway's Quarterback!)

I am hopful for a special deal whe GoW comes out.. so hang on...

Oh, I'd agree. I should have mentioned a $100 price drop for the premium too.

[Jack B]

almost 10 million 15 months after launch in the USA...Seems to me if MS hit 10 million by Jan/Feb in the USA - they're keeping pace.


Thanks JimmyDanger. I would have guessed the PS2 sold more on it's way to 100m, but I guess it starts slow and builds with the better game library. The 360's game library will really get a big boost in the next 6 months.

Good research. :)

[JimmyDanger]

Cheers Jack...

Yep - it's just more proof that us gamers are in a minority - and Joe Public will only have a look if the price matches his perception of "value"...

I'm not done researching yet tho - here's some PS1 figures from
Sony (http://www.scei.co.jp/corporate/data/bizdataps_e.html)

1994/12/31 300,000 units (Japan only)
1995/02/1st week 500,000 units (Japan only)
1995/05/4th week 1 million units (Japan only)
1995/12/31 3.4 million units (Japan: 2 million/ USA: 800,000/ Europe: 600,000)
1996/03/31 4.3 million units (Japan: 2.5 million/ USA: 1 million/ Europe: 800,000)
1996/05/15 5 million units (Japan: 2.7 million/ USA: 1.3 million/ Europe: 1 million)
1996/11/30 10 million units (Japan: 4.2 million/ USA: 3.45 million/ Europe: 2.35 million)

So almost 2 years for the PS1 to sell 10 million? I haven't found the original prices yet - but if I remember correctly - it launched for around the same price as the PS2 - and the big (%25) price drop took about 2 years...See a pattern emerging..

(If anyone can find a summary of the pricing history of the PS1 - it'd be interesting to chart the sales ratio/pricing ratio)...