XBox 360 Reaches 5 Million Worldwide

[bapenguin]

The Gamerscore Blog (http://gamerscoreblog.com/team/archive/2006/07/20/536283.aspx) has released some info today regarding the XBox 360 sales/shipped figures and such.As a result of continued demand and steady sales for the next-generation leading Xbox 360, the platform grew more than 125 percent and resulted in 1.8 million console shipments during the fourth quarter. This brings our installed base through June to 5 million consoles with 3.3 million in North America, 1.3 million in Europe and 400,000 in the rest of the world.
Anybody else see something wrong there? I bolded the words just in case. I don't think Microsoft understands the difference between installed base and units shipped.

A few other misc points:
An attach rate of 2.9 accessories
10 Million estimated 360's sold by year end
160 titles available by year end

[CaptStu]

5 million cosoles "sold" in the world doesn't seem that far off though. It's realistic.

[bapenguin]

5 million cosoles "sold" in the world doesn't seem that far off though. It's realistic.

Oh I'm sure it's close. But there's a difference between shipping 5 million units and saying you have an installed base of 5 million.

[jacktion]

So what does that mean in reality?
It means that this 5 million number is a lie.
Microsoft has not sold 5 million. Since they count shipped units the same as sold units then it throws anything they say into doubt. Why don't companies understand that these are two wildly different and unrelated numbers. Anyone can make a product and ship out millions to retailers around the world. But if no one buys it then they cannot boast. But if you look at it the way Microsoft is, then even if they shipped 20 million Xboxes and only 1 was purchased, they would say that "We have 20 million xboxes sold worldwide!! We're doing great!!"
I like the 360 and I am going to get one so I am not a hater, I just don't like when companies lie. I suppose it is a sign of the times that truth doesn't matter. You just spin what you want to believe and if you say it enough then some people will believe it. That's how our leaders do it so it's only natural for it to filter down to businesses, children, and our whole society.

grim much?

[CaptStu]

I suppose it is a sign of the times that truth doesn't matter. You just spin what you want to believe and if you say it enough then some people will believe it. That's how our leaders do it so it's only natural for it to filter down to businesses, children, and our whole society.

grim much?
Damn dude. There are pills for your ailments.

[CaptStu]

Oh I'm sure it's close. But there's a difference between shipping 5 million units and saying you have an installed base of 5 million.
I'm sure you know some MS PR peeps. Couldn't you ask about the contradiction in their verbiage?

[jeffbax]

How do you know that the increased shipments hasn't resulted in sales that results in 5 million people owning them :confused:

[Serapth]

It could be that the dont have sell through numbers for the 1.8 million shipped. Its not like sales totals are instantly available to Microsoft. For that matter, they may never be. The only number MS would know is the number of units they ship to vendors and the number of units returned as defective. Its not like the get point of sale data from gamestop, walmart etc...

[CaptStu]

It could be that the dont have sell through numbers for the 1.8 million shipped. Its not like sales totals are instantly available to Microsoft. For that matter, they may never be. The only number MS would know is the number of units they ship to vendors and the number of units returned as defective. Its not like the get point of sale data from gamestop, walmart etc...
Why the hell wouldn't they? Not having that information would be a consumer marketing and sales flaw on MS's part. MS is smart despite what some see or believe. They want to know how they're consoles are getting to the end-user.

[Kamalot]

Since they count shipped units the same as sold units then it throws anything they say into doubt. Why don't companies understand that these are two wildly different and unrelated numbers. Anyone can make a product and ship out millions to retailers around the world. But if no one buys it then they cannot boast.Keep this quote around for the next time Sony starts spouting off numbers. Sony NEVER reports units SOLD, only units SHIPPED. When I bring up the difference, Sony fangirls always show up and say that if it shipped to a retailer, then it was 'sold' to the retailer.

Do any console companies report actual units sold to consumers, or just shipped?

[DaedalusFolly]

Oh I'm sure it's close. But there's a difference between shipping 5 million units and saying you have an installed base of 5 million.

Why do so many get bent out of shape over the concept of sold/shipped? I'm not picking on you bapenguin, but I am singling you out :D If there was evidence to support MS not selling a significant portion of those 5 million, the difference would be significant. If you wanted, in the future, to compare 360 numbers to PS3/Wii, it would be significant. Right now, as long as it continues to climb at its current rate, it only signals that MS is moving products to the consumers.

[Serapth]

Why the hell wouldn't they? Not having that information would be a consumer marketing and sales flaw on MS's part. MS is smart despite what some see or believe. They want to know how they're consoles are getting to the end-user.

Simply because they cant. Most manufacturers dont have access to the vendors sell through numbers. Hell, look at how many different places sell XBox 360s... Walmart, Eb/GS, Target, Mom and Pops, Circuit City, online retailers, hell even Dell. Its not like these people call Microsoft each time they sell an Xbox. The closest it comes is when they do restocking. For a certain period of time ( from when the first order shipped to when it was restocked ) Microsoft is blind to how many units sold. For a certain period of time, all they will have to go on is units shipped.

[Evil Avatar]

So what does that mean in reality?
It means that this 5 million number is a lie.
Microsoft has not sold 5 million. Since they count shipped units the same as sold units then it throws anything they say into doubt.

Everyone does that. Sony is famous for counting shipped units as sold and putting out Press Releases to that effect.

Companies even do it for games... putting out PR's on shipped numbers like they were sold.

I think the very subtle difference here is that the 360 is still selling out nearly every system shipped and will reach 10 million sold before the PS3 even ships 1 Million total systems to the USA.

[CaptStu]

Simply because they cant. Most manufacturers dont have access to the vendors sell through numbers. Hell, look at how many different places sell XBox 360s... Walmart, Eb/GS, Target, Mom and Pops, Circuit City, online retailers, hell even Dell. Its not like these people call Microsoft each time they sell an Xbox. The closest it comes is when they do restocking. For a certain period of time ( from when the first order shipped to when it was restocked ) Microsoft is blind to how many units sold. For a certain period of time, all they will have to go on is units shipped.
I don't know if I buy your logic.

[Serapth]

Keep this quote around for the next time Sony starts spouting off numbers. Sony NEVER reports units SOLD, only units SHIPPED. When I bring up the difference, Sony fangirls always show up and say that if it shipped to a retailer, then it was 'sold' to the retailer.

Do any console companies report actual units sold to consumers, or just shipped?


Eventually yes, or atleast a reasonable estimate. Like I said in my other post, if say EbGames orders 100,000 360's or PS3's, then place an order for another 50,000, at this point MS/Sony can tally that as 100,000 sold ( install base ) plus another 50,000 shipped. But until another re-order comes in, those 50,000 remain in the 'shipped' category.

Then again, shipped and sold are effectively the same thing. EBGames pays for those 100K units up front, so in effect MS/Sony have already made a sale. Its just while they are sitting in the retail channel they cant be considered part of the install base.

[Evil Avatar]

Do any console companies report actual units sold to consumers, or just shipped?

No, they all report only shipped numbers. A couple of other posters mentioned about how many sources the systems go out to and how it takes a long time between shipping and when they get sold numbers back from everyone.

But, in the case of the 360, I think you can pretty much count every system shipped as sold... it is still selling really well.

[bapenguin]

I'm sure you know some MS PR peeps. Couldn't you ask about the contradiction in their verbiage?

I know John Porcaro visits the site from time to time, maybe he can shed some light on it for us.

[CaptStu]

I think the very subtle difference here is that the 360 is still selling out nearly every system shipped and will reach 10 million sold before the PS3 even ships 1 Million total systems to the USA.

There will probably be closer to 15 or so million 360s sold before Sony can get a grasp on market, being able to provide the supply chain with ample amounts of PS3s.

[bean19]

While the PS3 has really good brand recognition. I honestly think that this Christmas that $600 price tag is going to make a lot of consumers reconsider their purchase and compare game libraries.

While the 360 doesn't actually have 160 titles unless you count the tons of crap on Xbox Live Arcade, it does have a software library that already contains a large breadth of titles with quite a few really good ones.

[Serapth]

Actually units "shipped" can be obtained roughly from this tidbit in the article...


Xbox Live now boasts a community of more than 3 million members worldwide, with more than 6 million expected by this time next year. Presently, 60 percent of all Xbox 360 sold are connected to Xbox Live.


So 3+ million Xbox's on live == 60% of installed base. 60% * 5 million == 3 million, thus the other 40% == 2 million. That seems to indicate 5 million actual machines in homes.

The 1.8 million represents the current volume in retail ( or already sold which could be part of that 5 million )

[CaptStu]

Actually units "shipped" can be obtained roughly from this tidbit in the article...



So 3+ million Xbox's on live == 60% of installed base. 60% * 5 million == 3 million, thus the other 40% == 2 million. That seems to indicate 5 million actual machines in homes.

The 1.8 million represents the current volume in retail ( or already sold which could be part of that 5 million )
You're smart. I'm impressed by your math skills. :p

[bapenguin]

Actually units "shipped" can be obtained roughly from this tidbit in the article...



So 3+ million Xbox's on live == 60% of installed base. 60% * 5 million == 3 million, thus the other 40% == 2 million. That seems to indicate 5 million actual machines in homes.

The 1.8 million represents the current volume in retail ( or already sold which could be part of that 5 million )

But I'm sure MS is basing that 60% on their shipped. Which they also equate to installed base.

So either
1) It's actually higher than 60% because 5 million people don't OWN a 360.
2) It's correct :)

[Serapth]

While the PS3 has really good brand recognition. I honestly think that this Christmas that $600 price tag is going to make a lot of consumers reconsider their purchase and compare game libraries.

While the 360 doesn't actually have 160 titles unless you count the tons of crap on Xbox Live Arcade, it does have a software library that already contains a large breadth of titles with quite a few really good ones.


Not to mention I highly doubt Microsoft is going to piss away an advantage like this. Also, they will have to be price competitive with the Wii at this point.

I highly doubt Microsoft will drop the price much this Christmas, as much out of image requirements then anything else ( if its alot cheaper then the PS3, people will assume its inferior ). I wouldnt be shocked however to see them 1) create a bundle or series of bundles. Like 360 Core + Kameo for 299$. 2) Introduce a "greatest hits" discount line for games from launch like Kameo, PDZ and PGR3.

If they pull this trick Mom shopping for a Christmas gift would have to choose between a (base)PS3 for 499$ with no games or a (core) 360 with a game for 299$. Not to mention they could pick up a couple more XBox games for 29$ ( a few are already this cheap ) or they could buy a single PS3 game for 60$. I know how my mom would pick ( that is, if the bitch would have ever got me anything cool for Christmas!!! :( )

[Mike Jones]

Shipped does not equal sold and I didn't know that a store shelf counts as "install base". Looks good on paper though.

On a side note

SEATTLE, July 20 (Reuters) - Microsoft Corp. (MSFT.O: Quote, Profile, Research) posted a decline in quarterly net profit on Thursday, hurt by production costs for its Xbox 360 game console.

Someday they will actually make a profit....

[Serapth]

But I'm sure MS is basing that 60% on their shipped. Which they also equate to installed base.

So either
1) It's actually higher than 60% because 5 million people don't OWN a 360.
2) It's correct :)


See, thats the thing. They *KNOW* 3 million people are connected to live... thats easy for them to figure out. Thats the only solid number they have to go with but the second you activate your account, numLiveUsers++.

The 40% not connective to live however is probrably guess work. Thing is, if anything I would expect MS to guess low as they want Live to succeed probrably more then they want the Xbox to succeed. So they want to make it appear like more people are using live then arent. If anything I would guess, minus spin, the not connected to live number is probrably higher then 40% if anything

[Wyrm]

Everyone does that. Sony is famous for counting shipped units as sold and putting out Press Releases to that effect.

Companies even do it for games... putting out PR's on shipped numbers like they were sold.

I think the very subtle difference here is that the 360 is still selling out nearly every system shipped and will reach 10 million sold before the PS3 even ships 1 Million total systems to the USA.

I want to think you're right, but I'm going to play Devil's Advocate and say that you're not. I think that at most, the 360 will end up selling about 7-8 million by the time the PS3 hits. That will leave a slight margin for them to catch up, and if the 360 could get a price drop by christmas, they might get their 10 mil, but as it stands now, I just dont see that happening.

And I dont know where you are, but where I am, the 360s aren't still selling out. They had a stack of them taller than me (I'm 6'8'') in Best Buy, they had 10 at Circuit City, there were 12 at EBgames, and 8 at Gamestop, and they dont get shipments all that often.

[fitbabits]

Congratulations to Microsoft. For something.

[Roc Ingersol]

Does it matter?

[jacktion]

No, they all report only shipped numbers.

But, in the case of the 360, I think you can pretty much count every system shipped as sold... it is still selling really well.


I would disagree. This is one of those subtle differences that show you how a company operates. There are some companies that report units sold. That is an honest figure that represents actual success in the marketplace. When companies use the "units shipped" figure it is just a tactic to make them seem more successful than they are. With the 360 it is probably a close approximation of their sales but it is not the truth. If they equate shipped units to installed base than it is somewhat deceitful. For example, in Japan there are huge stacks of 360s sitting around. If you follow MS logic than the installed base in Japan is 2 million. But it isn't. It is like 200,000. They can't give those things away for free.
And I guess I don't know for sure that the 360 is selling really well. It seems like it is from the hype that I hear. But I still see stacks of them in stores. They aren't sold out consistently like they were before so their shipped units must not be exactly related to sold units.
I heard the same thing from Sony about the PSP. They said how it was totally selling awesome and I heard how great UMDs were selling and I read on this forum how the PSP was actually outselling the DS for a while. Then all of a sudden reality hits and UMD is crap and stores won't carry it and articles are being written about how the PSP is dead and a huge failure. So it is hard to know what to believe. If I had reliable numbers then it would be easier to decide for myself what the truth is but when MS follows this path of spin than I just don't trust them.

[Hellstorm]

Do any console companies report actual units sold to consumers?

Yes, Nintendo.

[Serapth]

BTW... here is from the horse's mouth ( MS financial statements ) not some blog.

Home and Entertainment includes the Microsoft Xbox video game console system, PC games, the Home Products Division, and TV platform products for the interactive television industry. The success of video game consoles is determined by console innovation, the portfolio of video game content for the console, online services, and the market share of the console. Our Xbox business is transitioning to a new console, the Xbox 360, which launched in the second quarter of fiscal year 2006. We believe that the functionality of our new console, games portfolio, and online services are well-positioned relative to forthcoming competitive consoles. We also believe launching in advance of competitive consoles will provide a strategic advantage for the long-term success of Xbox 360. Revenue from the first generation of Xbox products has declined and is expected to continue to decline as a result of the introduction of Xbox 360.

Fourth Quarter

Home and Entertainment revenue increased primarily reflecting an increase in Xbox revenue of $503 million or 129%. Xbox revenue increased mainly due to the shipment of 1.8 million Xbox 360 consoles, which exceeded the number of first generation consoles sold in the same period of the prior year. In addition, Xbox 360 consoles sell at a higher average price than first generation consoles. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2006, the availability of Xbox 360 consoles was no longer limited by supply constraints. Growth in revenue of $48 million or 24% from our Home Products Division, TV platform products, and PC games sales also contributed to the total Home and Entertainment revenue growth.

Home and Entertainment operating loss increased primarily as a result of a $682 million increase in cost of revenue primarily associated with the Xbox 360, partially offset by the revenue growth. Our business model anticipates that while we currently sell Xbox 360 consoles at a negative margin, product cost reductions and the future margins on sales of games and other products will enable us to achieve a positive margin over the Xbox 360 console lifecycle. The first generation Xbox consoles continue to have negative margins. Headcount-related costs increased 11% reflecting both a 19% increase in headcount and an increase in salaries and benefits for existing headcount, partially offset by a decrease in stock-based compensation expense.

Full Fiscal Year

Home and Entertainment revenue increased primarily due to the launch of the Xbox 360 console partially offset by a decline in first party Xbox game sales primarily resulting from the significant impact of Halo2 in fiscal year 2005. We sold approximately 5 million Xbox 360 consoles during the fiscal year. The revenue growth was also attributed to $140 million or 15% growth from our other product lines, primarily as a result of an increase in PC games sales due to significant new game releases, especially "Age of Empires III", and an increase in MSTV revenue due to deployments in fiscal year 2006.

Home and Entertainment operating loss increased primarily as a result of a $1.64 billion increase in cost of revenue primarily as a result of the number of Xbox 360 consoles sold and higher Xbox 360 unit costs, partially offset by the revenue growth. Our fiscal year 2006 operating loss increase was also attributable to the significant impact of Halo2 in fiscal year 2005. Headcount-related costs increased 5% reflecting both a 19% increase in headcount and an increase in salaries and benefits for existing headcount, partially offset by a decrease in stock-based compensation expense.

[Serapth]

So... if MS spent 1.64 *BILLION* dollars getting 5 million Xbox 360s into peoples hands... just what is it going to cost Sony with the PS3? Yooo OUCH.

*** BTW, that 1.64 number isnt just 360 costs. Every Xbox ( old style ) sold comes out of their pockets too.

[Hellstorm]

If you track the sales of the 360 with the Xbox in the same time period during each ones launch, the 360 is really lagging behind the original in sales.

Either way, 10 million SOLD to customers is not going to happen this year.

[Serapth]

Yes, Nintendo.


I know everyone likes to rah rah Nintendo as this magical wonder company, but do you have any proof here?

Units shipped is a necessity of any supply orriented business, unless of course the supplier is the only retailer. The shady part comes from certain companies trying to pass "shipped" as "Sold" *cough*PSP*cough*

[CaptStu]

If you track the sales of the 360 with the Xbox in the same time period during each ones launch, the 360 is really lagging behind the original in sales.
The first iteration of the Xbox had a little game called Halo available.

[Serapth]

If you track the sales of the 360 with the Xbox in the same time period during each ones launch, the 360 is really lagging behind the original in sales.

Either way, 10 million SOLD to customers is not going to happen this year.


Xbox revenue increased mainly due to the shipment of 1.8 million Xbox 360 consoles, which exceeded the number of first generation consoles sold in the same period of the prior year.


Ignoring shortages, that simply isnt true. Even with shortages, I still think that isnt true.

[torrefaction]

Shipped does not equal sold and I didn't know that a store shelf counts as "install base". Looks good on paper though.

On a side note

SEATTLE, July 20 (Reuters) - Microsoft Corp. (MSFT.O: Quote, Profile, Research) posted a decline in quarterly net profit on Thursday, hurt by production costs for its Xbox 360 game console.

Someday they will actually make a profit....

If your saying that as a knock against Microsoft, you're not understanding this market. Or exactly how much cash Microsoft has just sitting around.

[Kamalot]

Yes, Nintendo.
How can Nintendo tell the difference between units Sold and units Shipped?

[bapenguin]

See, thats the thing. They *KNOW* 3 million people are connected to live... thats easy for them to figure out. Thats the only solid number they have to go with but the second you activate your account, numLiveUsers++.

The 40% not connective to live however is probrably guess work. Thing is, if anything I would expect MS to guess low as they want Live to succeed probrably more then they want the Xbox to succeed. So they want to make it appear like more people are using live then arent. If anything I would guess, minus spin, the not connected to live number is probrably higher then 40% if anything

Ya, but that 60% MIGHT include XBox Live members...ya know...from the XBox 1.

[easi]

Wasn't the original target like 6 million by March '06? Pretty lacklustre, must have something to do with the fact that there are still no true AAA titles.

[bapenguin]

Shipped does not equal sold and I didn't know that a store shelf counts as "install base". Looks good on paper though.

On a side note

SEATTLE, July 20 (Reuters) - Microsoft Corp. (MSFT.O: Quote, Profile, Research) posted a decline in quarterly net profit on Thursday, hurt by production costs for its Xbox 360 game console.

Someday they will actually make a profit....

Yup just like Sony does...oh wait. They are making so much "profit" that they had to take out a loan.

[CaptStu]

Ya, but that 60% MIGHT include XBox Live members...ya know...from the XBox 1.
Can't Microsoft tell the difference between the original and the 360 through their servers? Surely they're able to do such a thing.

[Mike Jones]

If your saying that as a knock against Microsoft, you're not understanding this market. Or exactly how much cash Microsoft has just sitting around.

Believe me, I know exactly how much money MS has lying around. No company in the world would have lost as much money as they did off XBOX 1 and continued to stay in the console game. I don't know any other companies who could spend 4 billion dollars and make no money and continue.

[Mike Jones]

Yup just like Sony does...oh wait. They are making so much "profit" that they had to take out a loan.

There gaming division consistenly makes money. Your mixing up the company as a whole with Playstation. Playstations have made LOTS of money. Xbox's have yet to make a dime and it will be a real long time if you count the ridiculous amount of money they spent on XBOX 1.

[Chalex]

NPD numbers from another forum I frequent:

Nov 2005
PS2 = 531,000
XBOX 360 = 326,000

Dec 2005
PS2 = 1,500,000
XBOX 360 = 281,441

Jan 2006
PS2 = 272,000
XBOX 360 = 249,000

Feb 2006
PS2 = 299,000
XBOX 360 = 161,000

March 2006
PS2 = 273,000
Xbox 360 = 192,000

April 2006
Xbox 360 = 295,381
PS2 = 206,995

May 2006
PS2 = 231,616
Xbox 360 = 220,877

June 2006
PS2 = 312,000
XBOX 360 = 277,000

Those numbers bring the 360's sales total to 2,002,699 through June 2006.

Either the 360 sold 1.3 MILLION units in North America in July or those numbers are bullshit.

[joruussuun]

EDIT: N/M... ignore... misread and misreplied.
Oh, i'll now actually have to add something worthwhile to this thread? Um...
I like sandwiches...

[Chalex]

Post is no longer needed ;)

[Serapth]

Ya, but that 60% MIGHT include XBox Live members...ya know...from the XBox 1.

Presently, 60 percent of all Xbox 360 sold are connected to Xbox Live.


Granted, thats from the blog posting.

[GabeCube]

Nintendo reports sold systems by quoting NPD (for those who don't know, they specialize in sales research, and have a division dedicated to entertainment, the NPD Funworld http://www.npdfunworld.com/), as you can see here:
http://press.nintendo.com/articles.jsp?id=9902

[Serapth]

NPD numbers from another forum I frequent:



Those numbers bring the 360's sales total to 2,002,699 through June 2006.

Either the 360 sold 1.3 MILLION units in North America in July or those numbers are bullshit.


Well, given the fact if they lie on earnings announcements the SEC will fine them out the ass, I think Microsofts earnings numbers are more accurate then NPDs.

[antoniogaud]

Hmmmmm. Does anyone here have facts that contradict Microsoft's sales numbers? If you have figures that prove MS sold less than 5 million, then post those instead of your opinion (and hopes).

[bapenguin]

NPD numbers from another forum I frequent:



Those numbers bring the 360's sales total to 2,002,699 through June 2006.

Either the 360 sold 1.3 MILLION units in North America in July or those numbers are bullshit.

I believe NPD doesn't include Wal-Mart. Also these numbers were through June. So July is irrelevant.

[antoniogaud]

Believe me, I know exactly how much money MS has lying around. No company in the world would have lost as much money as they did off XBOX 1 and continued to stay in the console game. I don't know any other companies who could spend 4 billion dollars and make no money and continue.

Can we say TAX WRITE OFFS?!

[CaptStu]

The NPD does not count stores like Wal-Mart and the larger chains, may not even count online store orders. There's a lot more being purchased than what the NPD reports. It's just a wishy-washy indicator. It's like saying if the NYSE shows a loss or even a moderate return, it doesn't necessarily indicate that the economy is declining or even stagnant.

[CaptStu]

I believe NPD doesn't include Wal-Mart. Aslo these numbers were through June. So July is irrelevant.
Beat me to it.

[Plays4Pants]

5 million shipped is not impressive at all. honestly. 2.9 games isn't impressive at all either. Actually it's pathetic.

Maybe sony isn't quite screwed yet. And in a way i hope sony does survive after seeing these numbers would cause the game industry to crumble after a few years.

Then again, there's the ds...and possibly the wii

[bean19]

NPD numbers from another forum I frequent:

NPD doesn't include quite a few retailers. . . like that little chain Wal-Mart, and various others.

NPD is a great source for seeing how things have sold comapritively, but don't use it for total sales or you'll look like a jack ass.

[Serapth]

5 million shipped is not impressive at all. honestly. 2.9 games isn't impressive at all either. Actually it's pathetic.

Maybe sony isn't quite screwed yet. And in a way i hope sony does survive after seeing these numbers would cause the game industry to crumble after a few years.

Then again, there's the ds...and possibly the wii


Yes... the highest attach rate in history isnt impressive :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

[bapenguin]

Granted, thats from the blog posting.

I understand that, and I'm sure they know that. What I was saying is you figured out that there were 5 million sold by taking 60% of it and getting 3 million Live members. The problem is...the 3 million Live members include XBox Live 1.

[torrefaction]

5 million shipped is not impressive at all. honestly. 2.9 games isn't impressive at all either. Actually it's pathetic.

Maybe sony isn't quite screwed yet. And in a way i hope sony does survive after seeing these numbers would cause the game industry to crumble after a few years.

Then again, there's the ds...and possibly the wii

Whhaaaa...?

Technically, even if your not viewing the 5 million number as installed (Which it may very well be) it's 6.8 million shipped. This is only slightly off of what they projected. Which was 10 million by the end of the year.

I don't understand how having 5 million out the door before your competitor's even release their products (ignoring the supply issues both of them will have) isn't impressive.

[Serapth]

I understand that, and I'm sure they know that. What I was saying is you figured out that there were 5 million sold by taking 60% of it and getting 3 million Live members. The problem is...the 3 million Live members include XBox Live 1.

Ah ic. I suppose that could be true, but in the end I think there were something like 2 million Xbox 1 live users. That would mean only a million 360 owners on live, meaning a total of 1.4 million 360's sold total ( if you use the 40% number not on live with the 360 ). I find that seriously hard to believe.

I mean Microsoft can support a loss... but if they only sold 1.4 mil 360's by this point, even they would have dumped the 360 by now.

[Chalex]

I believe NPD doesn't include Wal-Mart. Also these numbers were through June. So July is irrelevant.For some reason I doubt that Wal-Mart accounts for 1/3 of Xbox 360 sales.

[Chalex]

I understand that, and I'm sure they know that. What I was saying is you figured out that there were 5 million sold by taking 60% of it and getting 3 million Live members. The problem is...the 3 million Live members include XBox Live 1.And there is no mention of how many of them are only Silver members.

[Serapth]

For some reason I doubt that Wal-Mart accounts for 1/3 of Xbox 360 sales.


Well... what about Walmart + Target + Circuit City + Amazon.com + Future Shop + Best Buy???

[Chalex]

Well... what about Walmart + Target + Circuit City + Amazon.com + Future Shop + Best Buy???Are you saying NPD doesn't track any of those retailers, because if you are I hope you have a link to back it up :)

[bean19]

I don't understand how having 5 million out the door before your competitor's even release their products (ignoring the supply issues both of them will have) isn't impressive.

Actually, if you project continued slow sales of about 400K/month for the rest of the summer all the way through October, they'll be at 6.6 million units before their competitors release at all.

Not to mention having a much larger game library from having been out a year already, and being much more competitively priced than their chief competitor.

[51|RandoM]

Damn dude. There are pills for your ailments.

Pills are a short term solution, I think he needs a tinfoil hat.

[bean19]

Are you saying NPD doesn't track any of those retailers, because if you are I hope you have a link to back it up :)

You are just digging a hole man.

[bapenguin]

Are you saying NPD doesn't track any of those retailers, because if you are I hope you have a link to back it up :)

Well this article (http://www.brandweek.com/bw/news/tech/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1002384719) says they don't track Walmart and warhouse/club sales.

So that means no Sam's Club, BJ's or Costco either.

[Chalex]

Well this article (http://www.brandweek.com/bw/news/tech/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1002384719) says they don't track Walmart and warhouse/club sales.

So that means no Sam's Club, BJ's or Costco either.I'm not saying the numbers are perfect, I'm saying the things they don't track can't possibly add up to the 1.3 million difference between the NPD numbers and Microsoft's numbers

[Serapth]

I'm not saying the numbers are perfect, I'm saying the things they don't track can't possibly add up to the 1.3 million difference between the NPD numbers and Microsoft's numbers

You seriously think that a high percentage of sales arent made at big box/warehouse stores... or for that matter, online?

Frankly, im kinda shocked it isnt even higher.

[Mike Jones]

With the five million unit point reached by June - just as the firm promised last year - Microsoft reiterated its target of selling (or at least, shipping) ten million units of the console by the end of the year - and added another ambitious target, namely the sale of 15 million units by the end of the next financial year in June 2007.

Looking at the financial side of things, the Xbox 360 is causing a serious impact on the firm's bottom line at this point in its lifespan - with the Home and Entertainment Division, whose revenues come primarily from the Xbox and its software, recording healthy revenues of $1.14 billion, but losses of $414 million.

That contributed to an overall fall in Microsoft's quarterly profits - although the firm did still turn in an enormous $2.83 billion in profit, this was down from $3.7 billion in the same quarter last year.

It's official...15 million 360's sold by June 2007 errr...i mean shipped

[bean19]

I'm not saying the numbers are perfect, I'm saying the things they don't track can't possibly add up to the 1.3 million difference between the NPD numbers and Microsoft's numbers

I find it unlikely that Wal-Mart alone hasn't shipped near 1 million units in the 7 months since the 360 launched. Do you have any idea how big Wal-Mart is? Also, are you urban? Many areas in the nation do not have ANY electronics stores or game stores. . . there are literally millions of people in the U.S. who buy all their games and consoles at Wal-Mart or online.

[Chalex]

You seriously think that a high percentage of sales arent made at big box/warehouse stores... or for that matter, online?

Frankly, im kinda shocked it isnt even higher.I know at launch time in my area Best Buy and Circuit City were getting roughly 2-3x as many 360's as Wal-Mart.

[CaptStu]

It's official...15 million 360's sold by June 2007 errr...i mean shipped
It's official...Mike Jones is a troll.

[Wyrm]

Wal-Mart is the ONLY chain that has the ability TO ship out a million units that fast.

[51|RandoM]

Nintendo's annual financial report has figures(in yen) for production, orders, and sold for handhelds, consoles, and software. Interesting reading.

[Cubfan]

Doesn't NPD estimate sales at stores from which it can't get official numbers (ie. Wal-Mart), and include them in their monthly totals? I heard that somewhere once.

[Serapth]

I know at launch time in my area Best Buy and Circuit City were getting roughly 2-3x as many 360's as Wal-Mart.

Well, at launch Best buy had some sort of deal with Microsoft to be the primary launch location in North America. So initial alotments went primarily to best buy. However, that only covers the first month or so.

On that topic, and I can only say in my neighbourhood, our Best Buy got 45 Premiums and 20 cores if I remember correctly. Walmart across the road got 30 Premiums and 15 cores.

So yeah, *at launch* Best Buy had more Xbox's, but even then Walmart had a healthy number available. That being said, the demographic buying a 360 at launch is *MUCH* different then the people buying 360's these last few months. Come Christmas, the Walmart crowd will probrably be *MUCH* bigger. I know a handful of families that do all of their christmas shopping at Walmart ( no matter how pathetic that is... ).

[Roc Ingersol]

WalMart's accounted for about 25% of the game industry's sales over the past 5 years. It's wobbled around, but it's always within a couple points of 25.

[Serapth]

I just took a quick look at Walmart 10-Q fillings and although they dont go into product level detail, this will give you a gist of how much of a power house walmart is.

Between Feb - April Walmart had total revinue of 79.6 billion dollars and by revinue breakdown "Consumer Electronics" represents 10% of their earnings. Thats 7.6 billion dollars worth of stuff sold... just a matter of figuring out how much of that is video games, but thats a staggering number, especially considering Feb - April is perhaps the shittiest 1/4 of the year ( except maybe May - Jul ) for Walmart.

[Shifteh]

An attach rate of 2.9 games

Hahahahahahahahaha...

[Knite]

Hahahahahahahahaha...

What's so funny about that?
An attach rate of 2.9 means every time someone's buying a 360, they are also generally buying 3 games.

Most other consoles in the past have been 1-2 games.
So I'm not sure why that's hysterical?

[Hellstorm]

How can Nintendo tell the difference between units Sold and units Shipped?

You know when you buy a Nintendo product and they scan the bar code on the item through the window in the package... OMG!! Nintendo is tracking you!!!!

Nintendo has some of the best inventory tracking systems in the industry.

[Chalex]

What's so funny about that?
An attach rate of 2.9 means every time someone's buying a 360, they are also generally buying 3 games.

Most other consoles in the past have been 1-2 games.
So I'm not sure why that's hysterical?
That is kinda weak considering that it's still primarily just the hardcore and early adoptors who have systems at this point.

Slightly off point, is this number only retail sales or does it include XBLA titles?

[Serapth]

That is kinda weak considering that it's still primarily just the hardcore and early adoptors who have systems at this point.

Slightly off point, is this number only retail sales or does it include XBLA titles?


Retail, as its based on the number of games sold with the system.

[Kamalot]

You know when you buy a Nintendo product and they scan the bar code on the item through the window in the package... OMG!! Nintendo is tracking you!!!!

Nintendo has some of the best inventory tracking systems in the industry.
Why don't other companies take this kind of approach to tracking system sales? I remember all the hooplah about PSP sales when in fact they were just "shipped" and sitting in retailers all around the world, unpurchased.

[Hellstorm]

The first iteration of the Xbox had a little game called Halo available.

Always comes down to Halo with the xbox doesn't it? :D

[Major Dan]

Always comes down to Halo with the xbox doesn't it? :D


You can't stop the

JUGGERNAUT

that is

HALO

Especially with overshields!

[thenefariousone]

Nothing weak at all about it, when you consider the 360 games cost $10 more than the competition.

It's only retail sales.

The same people thinking that Walmart sales don't matter, are probably those who think toy sales at McDonalds don't matter.

Gee - Walmart's only the world's largest retailer...

That is kinda weak considering that it's still primarily just the hardcore and early adoptors who have systems at this point.

Slightly off point, is this number only retail sales or does it include XBLA titles?

[Hellstorm]

Why don't other companies take this kind of approach to tracking system sales? I remember all the hooplah about PSP sales when in fact they were just "shipped" and sitting in retailers all around the world, unpurchased.

Who knows why others don't.

[Chalex]

Nothing weak at all about it, when you consider the 360 games cost $10 more than the competition.
I myself have purchased 23 retail 360 games, that means there are 10 people who only bought 1 game out there to offset me.

[Barrapa]

NPD numbers are a good estimate of sales, but they only cover North America and only some retail and not all shops. It is good for an estimate, but that is all.

[CaptStu]

Always comes down to Halo with the xbox doesn't it? :D
But, it's true. Halo sold the Xbox. It did for me and many millions of other consumers. What's selling the 360? Features like Live and a great assortment of games. Halo 3 isn't until next year. ;)

[CaptStu]

You can't stop the

JUGGERNAUT

that is

HALO

Especially with overshields!
I'd take the Master Chief over Solid Snake or Link any day.

[sol740]

I like the 360 and I am going to get one so I am not a hater, I just don't like when companies lie. I suppose it is a sign of the times that truth doesn't matter. You just spin what you want to believe and if you say it enough then some people will believe it. That's how our leaders do it so it's only natural for it to filter down to businesses, children, and our whole society.

grim much?

Don't like it when companies lie huh ? Get used to it fella. Where is it you work ? I'd bet my ass off they've lied about something. If you say different, I would bet you were lying.

[Serapth]

I myself have purchased 23 retail 360 games, that means there are 10 people who only bought 1 game out there to offset me.



SIGH... your still not getting it. Attach rate is the number of games you BOUGHT WITH your system. If you purchased your 360 and 23 games on day one, holy shit you have some serious disposable income. Plus its even more impressive when there werent even that many games.

2.9 attach rate means, when people bought their Xbox's they also bought 3 games... at the same time. Got it?

[Zanzibar]

SIGH... your still not getting it. Attach rate is the number of games you BOUGHT WITH your system. If you purchased your 360 and 23 games on day one, holy shit you have some serious disposable income. Plus its even more impressive when there werent even that many games.

2.9 attach rate means, when people bought their Xbox's they also bought 3 games... at the same time. Got it?

I can't WAIT to see how he misinterprets you THIS time. You may very well have created an ironclad box he can't get out of.

[benig]

I am actually curious what the actual definition of Attach Rate is. Is it just the average number of games bought along with a system or the number of systems sold / number of games sold?

[Serapth]

I am actually curious what the actual definition of Attach Rate is. Is it just the average number of games bought along with a system or the number of systems sold / number of games sold?


The first one. Otherwise the attach rate for the PS2 would probrably be around 10 - 20

[Zanzibar]

I am actually curious what the actual definition of Attach Rate is. Is it just the average number of games bought along with a system or the number of systems sold / number of games sold?

I've actually seen both types of attach rate listings as you mention, but they're usually differentiated by "at purchase" versus "overall."

Hey, now that I'm reading this, anyone notice that they're talking about ACCESSORY attach rates at 2.9 instead of games?? That's stuff like extra controllers/memory cards etc.

[Serapth]

I've actually seen both types of attach rate listings as you mention, but they're usually differentiated by "at purchase" versus "overall."

Hey, now that I'm reading this, anyone notice that they're talking about ACCESSORY attach rates at 2.9 instead of games?? That's stuff like extra controllers/memory cards etc.


Yeah, thats what I thought as numbers I heard in the past had accessories at 2.8ish and games at around 3.4ish. Thats kinda staggering for hardware considering the people that bought the premium system really wouldnt have to buy shit, except maybe another controller or the play and charge kit.

Then again... I have no idea how many people thought faceplates were the greatest thing since sliced bread. Thats something I just dont get.

[fitbabits]

I am actually curious what the actual definition of Attach Rate is. Is it just the average number of games bought along with a system or the number of systems sold / number of games sold?
You asked for it:

A Formula For Sales?

The report (http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=9618) sums up the value of the game industry with the following formula:

E = B(1+b) * P(1+p) * A(1+a) + v

The report explains this formula in the following way:

“1. Installed Base (B). People have already concluded the installed base will expand over the next five years. Why? Simply because this has been the trend over the past few cycles. Where will the installed base growth come from? Japan? There is probably no market more mature and where American consoles (no less publishers) have the toughest time cracking. China? Korea? These are PC-centric gaming markets. It doesn’t help that game piracy is rampant here. Emerging markets? Where? That leaves us with North America and Europe.

2. Average Selling Price (P). It would be reckless optimism to believe all frontline games will launch at $60 on next-gen consoles (vs. $50 on current gen). To date, nearly all titles have launched at $60. After nearly seven months, Need For Speed, GUN, Call of Duty 2, and Tony Hawk American Wasteland are still priced at $60. Some titles (Table Tennis and Topspin 2) are beginning to debut at lower price points. Many games will continue to debut at $60; however, we expect publishers will experiment with pricing for lesser franchises.

3. Attach Rate (A). We define attach rate as the number of games (units) per unit console installed base. The attach rate rises through the cycle. The early 360 exit polls suggest the attach rate may rise over the next-gen cycle. This has led some managements to proclaim publicly and privately the attach rate should rise cycle-over-cycle.

4 New Revenue Streams (v). In prior issues of the Video Game Journal, we have written about some new revenue sources in the coming cycle – namely, in-game advertising, micro- transactions and downloadable content, and the PSP. Of these, we believe downloadable content (map packs and expansion packs, in particular) and the PSP will be the most significant new revenue opportunities over the next five years.”

[benig]

3. Attach Rate (A). We define attach rate as the number of games (units) per unit console installed base. The attach rate rises through the cycle. The early 360 exit polls suggest the attach rate may rise over the next-gen cycle. This has led some managements to proclaim publicly and privately the attach rate should rise cycle-over-cycle. So the definition here is the second one. The number of games sold per number of systems sold.

[fitbabits]

So the definition here is the second one. The number of games sold per number of systems sold.
That's one definition. Whether it's appropriate for the matter at hand is open to interpretation (as always).

[51|RandoM]

I myself have purchased 23 retail 360 games, that means there are 10 people who only bought 1 game out there to offset me.

I'm one of them, and will be for awhile.

[Zanzibar]

Yeah, thats what I thought as numbers I heard in the past had accessories at 2.8ish and games at around 3.4ish. Thats kinda staggering for hardware considering the people that bought the premium system really wouldnt have to buy shit, except maybe another controller or the play and charge kit.

Then again... I have no idea how many people thought faceplates were the greatest thing since sliced bread. Thats something I just dont get.

(Whistles nervously as he eyes his Nyko Customizeable Faceplate (http://www.ebgames.com/product.asp?product%5Fid=802204))

Well, I currently have:
Nyko faceplate
3 extra wireless controllers (1 unopened)
2 Play 'n Charge kits (1 unopened)
...so that's 6 for me.

Oh, I also have a Microsoft "Launch Team 2005" dev-only faceplate (For sale if anyone's interested), but I didn't pay for that, we got 'em free as a "Thank You" from MS.

[51|RandoM]

2.9 attach rate means, when people bought their Xbox's they also bought 3 games... at the same time. Got it?

Actually, there are attach rate figures over time as well. You can find numerous links to attach rates achieved at mark X in the life of a console.

Historical data:

NES
Japan - 11.764
America - 6.790
Other - 5.057
Total - 8.096

SNES
Japan - 11.359
America - 5.781
Other - 5.737
Total - 7.722

N64
Japan - 7.175
America - 6.886
Other - 6.394
Total - 6.834

Game Boy
Japan - 4.836
America - 4.326
Other - 3.636
Total - 4.221

GameCube (End of 2005)
Japan - 6.693
America - 9.838
Other - 8.550
Total - 8.945

Game Boy Advance (End of 2005)
Japan - 4.183
America - 4.728
Other - 3.603
Total - 4.300

Nintendo DS (End of 2005)
Japan - 3.246
America - 3.700
Other - 2.624
Total - 3.216

Xbox (Unofficial, End of 2004)
Asia - 4.706
America - 9.773
Europe - 8.200
Total - 8.945

Xbox360
No info

PlayStation (End of June 2005)
Japan - 13.201
America - 9.122
Europe - 7.552
Total - 9.367

PlayStation 2 (End of 2005)
Japan - 8.454
America - 11.222
Europe - 9.294
Total - 9.885

PSP (End of 2005)
Japan - 1.857
America - 2.892
Europe - 1.892
Total - 2.269

[Serapth]

Actually, there are attach rate figures over time as well. You can find numerous links to attach rates achieved at mark X in the life of a console.


Wow, nice to see im not the only one that finds the PSP lineup fucking pathetic :) Im sorta shocked the PS2 wasnt higher.

[benig]

The Gamecube stats are impressive.

[wangstramedeous]

Wow a lot of whiners and loudmouthed ppl around here. All of this to argue the validity of a statement released by MS. Regardless of how you try to twist the story fact is MS has indeed shipped the 5 million. The only reason they've been able to do so is because the retailers are buying the units because they expect to sell them. As far as MS is concerned the money is in the bag...its a different story if the want to keep making money.

It is very possible the the 5 million shipments have not been bought all out by consumers and that's probably where the confusion comes in about the installed base. Bearing the fact that no sudden reports have come in across the world about sales of 360s declining or ppl returning them in mass, I think its very safe to expand the word "installed base" to total number of units sold to consumers if not now, at least in the very near future.

Remember if you're a retailer you don't keep buying products that you don't expect to sell yourself. If 5 million have been shipped, you'll be damn right if 5 million have been sold atleast by end of July.

[Mr.Condescension]

I think the very subtle difference here is that the 360 is still selling out nearly every system shipped and will reach 10 million sold before the PS3 even ships 1 Million total systems to the USA.

Let me get this straight, the Xbox 360 sold/shipped 1.8 million units worldwide in the last quarter (April,May,June) and you think it's going to sell an additional 5 Million units in the following 4.5 Months? That would be a rate change from 600,000 units a month to 1,100,000 units a month. Almost double.

This news to me means that Microsoft's game plan (the 10 million head start plan) is in serious jeapordy. Looks more like 7.7 Million is the mark they're likely to hit.

[Kamalot]

Let me get this straight, the Xbox 360 sold/shipped 1.8 million units worldwide in the last quarter (April,May,June) and you think it's going to sell an additional 5 Million units in the following 4.5 Months? That would be a rate change from 600,000 units a month to 1,100,000 units a month.The last quarter of the year includes Christmas and other gift-giving holidays.

[Zanzibar]

Let me get this straight, the Xbox 360 sold/shipped 1.8 million units worldwide in the last quarter (April,May,June) and you think it's going to sell an additional 5 Million units in the following 4.5 Months? That would be a rate change from 600,000 units a month to 1,100,000 units a month. Almost double.

This news to me means that Microsoft's game plan (the 10 million head start plan) is in serious jeapordy. Looks more like 7.7 Million is the mark they're likely to hit.

Say hello to the Christmas season.

PS3 won't hit 1mil US before 2007, simply because they won't be able to manufacture that many. Don't believe me? Name me a console that has launched with more than 500,000 units in the US in the first month.

All the parents shopping for Christmas won't be able to find a PS3, so they'll walk out with either a Wii or a Xbox 360. Or both. THAT is how MS will finally make it.

Also, right as the PS3's manufacturing hits full steam in early 2007, Halo 3 is going to drop on them.

[Mr.Condescension]

The last quarter of the year includes Christmas and other gift-giving holidays.

Yes, I just noticed they have downgraded their expectations from a 10 million unit head-start to 10 million units by the end of the year. Interesting how they changed that and no one noticed. Basically they've admitted that the 360 hasn't sold as well as they had thought it would post-E3.

Ok, so assuming 7.7 Million by Nov. 15, that leaves sales of 2.3 Million in 1.5 months. I'm going to go out on a limb and say they're going to miss that goal as well. Look at the Ps2 in its second year as a run-away hit....2 Million units in all of November and December. No way the 360 does 3 million better than the PS2 in 3/4 the time period. (edit: I used the NPD numbers, so it would probably have to match the PS2 in the same time period, not better. Still a bit of a pipe dream.)

edit: The original 10 Million unit head start is from Peter Moore at the Microsoft E3 press conference. It was not 10 Million units by year end. It was something like "before our competitors get to market" (paraphrasing)

[Kamalot]

edit: The original 10 Million unit head start is from Peter Moore at the Microsoft E3 press conference. It was not 10 Million units by year end. It was something like "before our competitors get to market" (paraphrasing)
I thought that the goal was to get 10 million before the competition, not by a specific date.

[Zanzibar]

Yes, I just noticed they have downgraded their expectations from a 10 million unit head-start to 10 million units by the end of the year. Interesting how they changed that and no one noticed. Basically they've admitted that the 360 hasn't sold as well as they had thought it would post-E3.

Ok, so assuming 7.7 Million by Nov. 15, that leaves sales of 2.3 Million in 1.5 months. I'm going to go out on a limb and say they're going to miss that goal as well. Look at the Ps2 in its second year as a run-away hit....2 Million units in all of November and December. No way the 360 does 3 million better than the PS2 in 3/4 the time period. (edit: I used the NPD numbers, so it would probably have to match the PS2 in the same time period, not better. Still a bit of a pipe dream.)

edit: The original 10 Million unit head start is from Peter Moore at the Microsoft E3 press conference. It was not 10 Million units by year end. It was something like "before our competitors get to market" (paraphrasing)

This June 2005 article from Spong (http://spong.com/detail/news.jsp?prid=8839&cb=138) quotes Moore as saying it's "possible" to hit 10mil units inside a year. Then it says:
"The target of 10 million units gives tremendous momentum to a platform. That is a target we are looking at that we think we can reach in quite a quick manner,” he said.

Moore claims that his team are looking to ship this figure within the first 12-16 months, an astonishingly bold target and one that is perhaps indicative of the price point of the 360, one which we are led to believe will break all loss-leader platform records.
Go ahead, call it a failure that they might miss their BEST CASE SCENARIO mark by ONLY 10% or so. Fanboy.

[Mr.Condescension]

2.9 attach rate means, when people bought their Xbox's they also bought 3 games... at the same time. Got it?

LOL. Read the OP, bro. The 2.9 attach rate is for ACCESSORIES! Wooptie doo! It has nothing to do with games purchased in any way whatsoever.

[Mr.Condescension]

This June 2005 article from Spong (http://spong.com/detail/news.jsp?prid=8839&cb=138) quotes Moore as saying it's "possible" to hit 10mil units inside a year. Then it says:

Go ahead, call it a failure that they might miss their BEST CASE SCENARIO mark by ONLY 10% or so. Fanboy.

At E3 he stated that he expected to have 10 million 360s out before the competition launched. They are likely to miss this mark by at least 23%. How is this so hard to understand?

[Serapth]

LOL. Read the OP, bro. The 2.9 attach rate is for ACCESSORIES! Wooptie doo! It has nothing to do with games purchased in any way whatsoever.


Yeah, your right... attach rates for games was *HIGHER*

[Major Dan]

I'd take the Master Chief over Solid Snake or Link any day.

Amen, I have no

REGRETS

[destoo]

All the parents shopping for Christmas won't be able to find a PS3, so they'll walk out with either a Wii or a Xbox 360. Or both. THAT is how MS will finally make it.

I have the impression that PS2 sales will do quite well too.
This is what the PS2 launch did for sony.. Sell more PS1

[Zanzibar]

At E3 he stated that he expected to have 10 million 360s out before the competition launched. They are likely to miss this mark by at least 23%. How is this so hard to understand?

Find me a link, I've been looking for 20 minutes and I haven't found this alleged E3 projection of "10 mil before PS3 launches" as what they expect. I found ANOTHER article, interviewing Steve Ballmer (http://money.cnn.com/2006/03/17/technology/ballmer_fortune/index.htm), who instead says something different, just after the PS3 delay was announced:
"In every other generation, the first guy to 10 million consoles was the number one seller in the generation," Ballmer told FORTUNE in an interview on Thursday afternoon. "Did we just get an even better opportunity to be the first guy to 10 million? Yeah, of course we did."

[Mr.Condescension]

Yeah, your right... attach rates for games was *HIGHER*

Really? That's good news then. Do you have a link to that information? Are you aware that attach rate is not what you bought when you purchased the system, right? It's a metric of how many of x product were sold compared to systems sold overall. Interesting information to know, definitely, but it doesn't actually have to do with what anyone bought in the same purchase as the system itself.

[Serapth]

Really? That's good news then. Do you have a link to that information? Are you aware that attach rate is not what you bought when you purchased the system, right? It's a metric of how many of x product were sold compared to systems sold overall. Interesting information to know, definitely, but it doesn't actually have to do with what anyone bought in the same purchase as the system itself.


Yes it does and does. There is launch attach rate and lifetime attach rate. Generally attach rate refers to at launch. Lifetime attach rates generally are used for postmortems.

[Kamalot]

"In every other generation, the first guy to 10 million consoles was the number one seller in the generation," Ballmer told FORTUNE in an interview on Thursday afternoon. "Did we just get an even better opportunity to be the first guy to 10 million? Yeah, of course we did." That was my impression as well. 10 Million has been, up till today, the 'magic' number at which the winner has been chosen. It isn't science (hence the term 'magic') but it is a stable indicator of prior success.

[Zanzibar]

Mr.Cond: Yeah, I found an article (http://forums.xbox-scene.com/index.php?showtopic=511982) where Moore doesn't deny a 'goal' of 10mil by the time the PS3 launches. Fair enough. I think that it will be close to 9 mil X360s sold by the end of November, so we'll see.

[Mr.Condescension]

Find me a link, I've been looking for 20 minutes and I haven't found this alleged E3 projection of "10 mil before PS3 launches" as what they expect.

http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/press/2006/may06/05-09E32006BriefingPR.mspx

Attributed to Bill Gates, actually. I thought it was Moore.

edit: By the end of the year I will probably be one of the 10 million sold anyway, but I find it odd that no one thinks the slower than expected sales of the xbox 360 is disconcerting. The news of 5 Million sold through June is simply not good news.

[Serapth]

Really? That's good news then. Do you have a link to that information? Are you aware that attach rate is not what you bought when you purchased the system, right? It's a metric of how many of x product were sold compared to systems sold overall. Interesting information to know, definitely, but it doesn't actually have to do with what anyone bought in the same purchase as the system itself.


Oh, and here is your link...

"Launch to date" attach rates: 4.5 games / system
http://www.xbox.com/en-US/community/news/2006/0419-worldembracesxbox360.htm

and from launch 4
http://news.com.com/Microsoft+exec+lauds+Xbox+360+sales/2100-1043_3-6018580.html

Both records, btw.

[Zanzibar]

http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/press/2006/may06/05-09E32006BriefingPR.mspx

Attributed to Bill Gates, actually. I thought it was Moore.
That's what I get for entering 'moore' in my searches.

Fair enough. They think Gears, Madden 07, Forza, and Dead Rising are the kinds of 'killer apps' that will increase sales for the X360 between now and November. Live Arcade is getting more and more word-of-mouth. Do I think it's still possible to hit 10mil by the time the PS3 launches? Doubtful, but possible.

[Mr.Condescension]

Oh, and here is your link...

"Launch to date" attach rates: 4.5 games / system
http://www.xbox.com/en-US/community/news/2006/0419-worldembracesxbox360.htm

and from launch 4
http://news.com.com/Microsoft+exec+lauds+Xbox+360+sales/2100-1043_3-6018580.html

Both records, btw.

Thanks for the links. That is good news. I wonder the reason for the higher than usual attach rate.

Do I think it's still possible to hit 10mil by the time the PS3 launches? Doubtful, but possible.

Agreed. Anything is possible, but the sales figures aren't looking good on that front. Perhaps they'll have a huge December to make up for missing that goal. It's hard to guess how the launch of the other two systems will affect sales of the 360. If the other products come out in large enough quantities it could conceivably ruin Microsoft's winter, and vice versa.

[Zanzibar]

http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/press/2006/may06/05-09E32006BriefingPR.mspx

Attributed to Bill Gates, actually. I thought it was Moore.

edit: By the end of the year I will probably be one of the 10 million sold anyway, but I find it odd that no one thinks the slower than expected sales of the xbox 360 is disconcerting. The news of 5 Million sold through June is simply not good news.

Waitaminit, after the crappy launch that they had where they sold maybe 1/4th of the units they had hoped for, you're telling me that recovering from that to STILL be on track to hit their 2005 goal of 10mil units within the first 12-16 months from LAUNCH is bad news?

[Mr.Condescension]

Waitaminit, after the crappy launch that they had where they sold maybe 1/4th of the units they had hoped for, you're telling me that recovering from that to STILL be on track to hit their 2005 goal of 10mil units within the first 12-16 months from LAUNCH is bad news?

They didn't make the claim I've referred to at launch, though. They made the claim at E3 in May when supply was already no longer an issue. The launch has nothing to do with it, really. Sales have been slower than expected since E3, or so it seems.

[Serapth]

Thanks for the links. That is good news. I wonder the reason for the higher than usual attach rate.

Well, part of it people blame on asshole retailers forcing people into buying bundles although that wasnt true where I am. Other then that, contrary to what alot of people like to say, Xbox 360 had/has one of the best launch lineups ever. The average quality has been very high and the diversity was pretty damned good, minus RPGs, which you dont normally see early in a consoles life anyways. Had I been a sports fan, there were another half dozen titles that may have been worth buying.

If you look at what ive bought ( Oblivion,PGR(launch), Graw, PD:Z(launch), CoD2(launch), Nfs:MW and finally Chromehounds ), every one of them got 80+% average reviews, except perhaps chromehounds, which frankly is more of a fringe title that you either get or dont get. I think reviewers have been very unfair to that title.

The lineup for 360 is pretty damned impressive quality wise, explaining why so many people bought so many games. Yeah, there are some stinkers, but nothing compared to the first 1/2 year of the PS2 or near as limited in selection as the first year of the GC.

[Johan]

The only interesting thing about this whole topic, to me, is that they've sold about somewhere between zero and a handful (hyperbole, yes, but thematically accurate) in Japan...

MS is screwed in the Land of the Rising Sun.

Actually, attach rates are pretty amazing for the 360...even factoring in bundles. Pretty good stuff in NA and EU for them...but nothing but crickets in Japan

[Serapth]

They didn't make the claim I've referred to at launch, though. They made the claim at E3 in May when supply was already no longer an issue. The launch has nothing to do with it, really. Sales have been slower than expected since E3, or so it seems.


Well, part of the problem is they gotta stop letting Bill Gates speak at these things. He was also the one that said when PS3 launched they would launch Halo 3, which may or may not be true ( like the 10 million thing ) but wasnt in the best interest of the company.

That said, they still could make 10 million if supply is good. Right now is a slow time for selling games ( or anything really... ). The two biggest sales points of the year are the back to school rush ( aug-sept ) and christmas. I think sales normally double in those periods, perhaps even more so at Christmas. If Microsoft can get 10 million units on the shelves by Christmas, I can see them making that 10 mil target. However, even if they dont, having 3rd party developers believe you are going to be the market leader is just as important as actually being the market leader. People are deciding now what platform(s) to support for their next game. Developer support is perhaps the most important thing a console can have.

[Zanzibar]

Serapth: I'm not a sports fan either, but after I downloaded the Fight Night: Round 3 demo, I almost went out and bought a copy. Only reason I haven't is that I still have 2 games to complete, and I'm sucked into Oblivion. Oh, and because it's EA, who I hate almost as much as Sony.

I tell ya, I still launch the FN:R3 demo when I need to release some anger. Knocking that fool out is among the most rewarding visceral experiences I've ever had in gaming.

[Ix Quantum xI]

The most surprising thing to me is that it still is possible for Microsoft to sell 10 million units in a year even after selling almost no units in Japan.

[Johan]

The most surprising thing to me is that it still is possible for Microsoft to sell 10 million units in a year even after selling almost no units in Japan.

That's the truth...actually pretty amazing, while being sad at the same time

[Mr.Condescension]

That's the truth...actually pretty amazing, while being sad at the same time

I think that might tie into the attach rate. It seems to me that the attach rate is so high because people who are buying the Xbox 360 are typically previous Xbox owners. The launch line-up really caters to those types of gamers (sports, shooters, 1 solid wRPG). So because they steered the 360 lineup towards the existing popular genres on the xbox, they managed to get a very high attach rate where the xbox sold well, and at the same time get zero sales where the xbox sold poorly. Thoughts anyone?

[Major Dan]

The most surprising thing to me is that it still is possible for Microsoft to sell 10 million units in a year even after selling almost no units in Japan.

Too bad the Japanese missed the Master Chief!

If only they would play FPSs. :( Then they would buy the XBox!


Actually, considering the initial supply problems MS had, I think they are doing pretty dang well with the 360 :)

[Achilles]

edit: By the end of the year I will probably be one of the 10 million sold anyway, but I find it odd that no one thinks the slower than expected sales of the xbox 360 is disconcerting. The news of 5 Million sold through June is simply not good news.Do you have any information on how many PS2s were sold in the first 7-8 months, Mr.Condescension? That may be a good number for comparison. I can't imagine it would be much higher than 5 mil.

[Hellstorm]

Didn't Nintendo and Sony say they will have 3 or 7 million units sold by March 07? Whatever shipped lead MS makes won't be that big. I expect Wii to outsell one of the two. Question is will it be Wii60 or will it be PSWii?

[Meatgortex]

According to The NPD Group, gamers are buying 2.4 Xbox games with every Xbox, resulting in the highest game attach rate ever recorded for a console at launch. Sony Computer Entertainment America Inc. sold 1.9 games with every PlayStation 2 during the first two weeks of its launch last year, and Nintendo Company Ltd. has sold 1.9 games with every GameCube to date.

360 attach rate at launch was just shy of 4.

[Mr.Condescension]

Do you have any information on how many PS2s were sold in the first 7-8 months, Mr.Condescension? That may be a good number for comparison. I can't imagine it would be much higher than 5 mil.

Best I could find on short notice:

http://forum.pcvsconsole.com/viewthread.php?tid=11067

NPD sales numbers for the consoles. They list the PS2 selling 5,452,620 units from Nov 2001 - Jun 2002. These are only sales in North America, and as previously established does not include wal-mart and other large retailers, so it's probably about half the total sales. The first week in Japan had over 900,000 units sold. So, we're probably looking at at least 9-10 million sold in the first 8 months, by my best guess. Interestingly, if the 360 can pull off a PS2 level feeding frenzy in November and December, it would be quite a blow to the competition. That doesn't seem very likely, though.

[Mr.Condescension]

Didn't Nintendo and Sony say they will have 3 or 7 million units sold by March 07? Whatever shipped lead MS makes won't be that big. I expect Wii to outsell one of the two. Question is will it be Wii60 or will it be PSWii?

Sony expects 4 Million by year end and 6 Million by Q1 end. Nintendo I think said 4 or 6 by Q1 end, but I'm not sure on that one. No, it isn't a huge lead unless MS has a monstrous Winter. This one's all about the Winter season.

[Zanzibar]

Best I could find on short notice:

http://forum.pcvsconsole.com/viewthread.php?tid=11067

NPD sales numbers for the consoles. They list the PS2 selling 5,452,620 units from Nov 2001 - Jun 2002. These are only sales in North America, and as previously established does not include wal-mart and other large retailers, so it's probably about half the total sales. The first week in Japan had over 900,000 units sold. So, we're probably looking at at least 9-10 million sold in the first 8 months, by my best guess. Interestingly, if the 360 can pull off a PS2 level feeding frenzy in November and December, it would be quite a blow to the competition. That doesn't seem very likely, though.

PS2 was launched in the US in October 2000. The PS2 didn't really start selling astronomically well until GTA3 and MGS2 hit the market in November 2001, which you're seeing the results in this article.

[bean19]

That is kinda weak considering that it's still primarily just the hardcore and early adoptors who have systems at this point.

Slightly off point, is this number only retail sales or does it include XBLA titles?

Actually, that's not why the 2.9 is weak (though they are still doing well even with the reason I'm about to give you). My guess is that they count Xbox Live Arcade games toward the attach rate the same way they count them for their total library.

Though you really should reconsider all the 360 bashing. By all accounts, it is doing very well and should be a contender for most successful this generation.

We quibble a lot about the details, but there are a lot of games sold for it, a lot of systems sold, and a lot of games out for it already as well as coming out for it. They definitely have the lead and everyone else is playing catch up.

[Mr.Condescension]

PS2 was launched in the US in October 2000. The PS2 didn't really start selling astronomically well until GTA3 and MGS2 hit the market in November 2001, which you're seeing the results in this article.

You're totally right. I'm surprised I missed that. If anyone has the data from the year before, that would be awesome.

[Achilles]

Actually, that's not why the 2.9 is weak (though they are still doing well even with the reason I'm about to give you). My guess is that they count Xbox Live Arcade games toward the attach rate the same way they count them for their total library.Nope, the attach rate number is based off NPD numbers which do not track XBLA purchases. MS has put out different numbers on Arcade games. The 2.9 number is all retail, and it is a very strong number, though it is down from the over 4 that they had early this year.

[Mr.Condescension]

They definitely have the lead and everyone else is playing catch up.

You could say that if they sold only 1 unit, to be fair. They're the only one in the marketplace. Honestly, we're all about as confused as all the analysts who don't know anything either. I think we're all just trying to make sense of the numbers we have (or don't have). The numbers I'm seeing are a bit underwhelming, and are below what was projected at E3, which makes me question how they're doing overall. At the same time, they are selling about as well as the original xbox at this point in its lifespan. It's all relative. Do you think the xbox was a failure or a success, or somewhere in between? I consider it and the Gamecube a failure, business-wise, so that will color my perception of the 360s progress.

[Zanzibar]

Actually, that's not why the 2.9 is weak (though they are still doing well even with the reason I'm about to give you). My guess is that they count Xbox Live Arcade games toward the attach rate the same way they count them for their total library.

Though you really should reconsider all the 360 bashing. By all accounts, it is doing very well and should be a contender for most successful this generation.

We quibble a lot about the details, but there are a lot of games sold for it, a lot of systems sold, and a lot of games out for it already as well as coming out for it. They definitely have the lead and everyone else is playing catch up.
Nope, the attach rate number is based off NPD numbers which do not track XBLA purchases. MS has put out different numbers on Arcade games. The 2.9 number is all retail, and it is a very strong number, though it is down from the over 4 that they had early this year.

We've mentioned it before, but it may have gotten buried: after further review, the 2.9 is ACCESSORIES, not games. Attach rate for games seems to be 4.5 or so.

[bean19]

Nope, the attach rate number is based off NPD numbers which do not track XBLA purchases. MS has put out different numbers on Arcade games. The 2.9 number is all retail, and it is a very strong number, though it is down from the over 4 that they had early this year.

Thanks. :)

[Achilles]

Thanks. :)It looks like they’ve got 5 mil downloads from XBLA, so that would be an attach rate of 1 given their other numbers, or 1.9-ish for Live users (60% of the 5 mil). I didn’t check your numbers on the 2.9 thing, or notice myself that it was just for accessories, but Zanzibar is right, the 2.9 is only for accessories, which is pretty amazing. If games are still at 4.5 (I don’t see it mentioned in the article), that’s really, really high, and there's no way to spin that as a negative.

Sorry for the confusion!

[Shifteh]

If only they would play FPSs. Then they would buy the XBox!

Uh... counter-stike neo?

[Shifteh]

Always comes down to Halo with the xbox doesn't it?

What other games were on it?