Analysts: PS3 To Slow Industry Growth, Nintendo & Microsoft Could Capitalize

[Kamalot]

More analysts at work as reported by Gamasutra (http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=10122
).

…as the dominant market leader, SCE was largely in control of its own fate. Microsoft and Nintendo had to hope Sony fumbled or significantly changed its strategy so that they could get an opportunity to capture some of that PS2 audience. Now it is clear Sony is handing its competitors a golden opportunity.

…two things are clear: 1) the high price of the PlayStation 3 is going to slow overall industry growth, especially for software and 2) if Sony does not change its current strategy for the PS3 the system will probably end up in third place in installed base.

…another major difference between Apple and the PlayStation brand is that the PlayStation 2 had a share of over 60% of the video game console market, while Apple's computer market share has hovered in the 2-3% range. We believe that under Kutargai's techno-elite PlayStation 3 strategy, the PlayStation 3 could end up with a market share more resembling Apple products as opposed to the dominant PlayStation 2 market share.
I suggest reading the entire (http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=10122
) article as it is well thought out.

Editor's Note - Removed original headline and replaced it with something more in line with what the article is about. - fitbabits

[Chalex]

…another major difference between Apple and the PlayStation brand is that the PlayStation 2 had a share of over 60% of the video game console market, while Apple's computer market share has hovered in the 2-3% range. We believe that under Kutargai's techno-elite PlayStation 3 strategy, the PlayStation 3 could end up with a market share more resembling Apple products as opposed to the dominant PlayStation 2 market share.
I wonder if they have ever heard of the iPod?

[bapenguin]

Umm...holy crapDFC Intelligence has just released a 600 page report with our latest forecast for the interactive entertainment industry.

600 pages of BS.

[fitbabits]

Umm...holy crap

600 pages of BS.
I know! What a waste of trees... :(

[Kamalot]

Editor's Note - Removed original headline and replaced it with something more in line with what the article is about. - fitbabits

I beg to differ. Of the 2 main points, only one is about PS3 slowing growth. The other main point is about the PS3 coming in 3rd place if Sony continues with its current plans.

[Kamalot]

I know! What a waste of trees... :(

Don't worry. It is PDF.

[Mason]

The PS3 is going to have a high price? When did this happen? Why hasn't anyone brought this up before?

[Nighthold]

Don't worry. It is PDF.

What a waste of virtual trees! :-(

[Siraris]

I was just reading this article and wondering how long it would take Kamalot to submit it.

Again, this guy is working on pure speculation. He also leaves out many factors such as Sony helps developers fund projects, developers have the option of developing for PSP and PS2 for the next year or so (he briefly touches on this). Just because in the past it's been console launch, wait 5 years, new console ditch the old one rinse repeat, doesn't mean that's the way it always has to be. Perhaps Sony is deviating from this strategy.

[Zanzibar]

Right now the PlayStation 3 could be considered a relatively inexpensive part of a household looking to go to a high definition system. Consider this mid-level high-definition home theater budget:

High-definition television: $2,500
Stereo Receiver: $600
Speakers: $1,200
Cables: $400
Installation and Calibration: $1,000
Movie/CD/Game Player: $600

Under this budget, a PlayStation 3 is a fairly small line item in what is a $6,000+ take out a home equity line of credit project. Kutaragi is right, for this consumer the PS3 is a bargain. However, we must ask how big that consumer base is and if these are the type of consumers shopping for bargains.

This guy is now officially labelled as 'Out Of His Goddamned Mind.' $2200 for cables and a home theater system? $1000 for installation?

[Returner]

I was just reading this article and wondering how long it would take Kamalot to submit it.

Again, this guy is working on pure speculation. He also leaves out many factors such as Sony helps developers fund projects, developers have the option of developing for PSP and PS2 for the next year or so (he briefly touches on this). Just because in the past it's been console launch, wait 5 years, new console ditch the old one rinse repeat, doesn't mean that's the way it always has to be. Perhaps Sony is deviating from this strategy.

No console should last 10 years. The way tech advances consoles should be replaced at the 6 year mark IMO.

[Nighthold]

This guy is now officially labelled as 'Out Of His Goddamned Mind.' $2200 for cables and a home theater system? $1000 for installation?

I think the real point being "How many people can afford a setup like the one mentioned above" as opposed to that setup being unrealistic.

And where does it say 2200 for cables? Mind you, anything over 100 is too much if you ask me, but 2200?

I have a very nice HDTV that cost me all of 900 dollars new, and that was even a stretch. 2500? For any average american or japanese? Unlikely.

[Magnanimous Gnome]

No console should last 10 years. The way tech advances consoles should be replaced at the 6 year mark IMO.


Just like the PS3 was - I fully agree. The four year lifespan of the Xbox was ridiculous. Hopefully the 360 doesn't follow suit.

Do you ever get tired of hunting down anti-Sony news Kamalot?


I've already gazed into my crystal ball and ascertained his response. ;)

[Jack B]

I was just reading this article and wondering how long it would take Kamalot to submit it.

Again, this guy is working on pure speculation. He also leaves out many factors such as Sony helps developers fund projects, developers have the option of developing for PSP and PS2 for the next year or so (he briefly touches on this). Just because in the past it's been console launch, wait 5 years, new console ditch the old one rinse repeat, doesn't mean that's the way it always has to be. Perhaps Sony is deviating from this strategy.

Siraris, go ahead and bag on Kamalot... If you knew about this report why you didn't post it...? Don't bother answering that one, most here already know the answer.

As much as Kamalot posts negative Sony info, you try to dismiss every bit of it. I can't remember the last time you agreed with anything and I mean anything negative about Sony. Everything they do is a brilliant idea as far as your concerned.

And to think I was wondering how long it would take for you to ask the mods to lock this thread... :p

Again, this guy is working on pure speculation.

Analysts are always pure speculation, that's what they do is speculate on the future. If someone writes 600 pages, I think they've certainly done some research.

He also leaves out many factors such as Sony helps developers fund projects, developers have the option of developing for PSP and PS2 for the next year or so (he briefly touches on this).

Excuse me for being skeptical, but you've already had time to read his 600 pages, to know what he left out?????

He may be right or wrong, but he should get a bit more credit than dismissing his speculation like it was some fanboy post.

His speculation has been repeated by other analysts, fanboys and non-biased sources as well. It doesn't make it right or wrong just an educated guess.

Every year we speculate on who will win the Superbowl. This is no different.

[bapenguin]

This guy is now officially labelled as 'Out Of His Goddamned Mind.' $2200 for cables and a home theater system? $1000 for installation?

If you buy quality cables/and or buy monster cables from Best Buy Circuit/City you'll easily spend 400 bucks on them.

I'm guessing the 1000 for installation would be professionally done calibration and such.

[fitbabits]

Editor's Note - Removed original headline and replaced it with something more in line with what the article is about. - fitbabits

I beg to differ. Of the 2 main points, only one is about PS3 slowing growth. The other main point is about the PS3 coming in 3rd place if Sony continues with its current plans.
The title as it stands right now more accurately reflects the content of the article without flamebaiting.

This is not kotaku - we don't need sensationalist headlines to attract people.

[51|RandoM]

The PS3 is going to have a high price? When did this happen? Why hasn't anyone brought this up before?

roflcopter, my coworkers jumped when I just burst out laughing for no apparent reason.

[Returner]

My set up

High-definition television: $3,400
Stereo Receiver: $300
Speakers: $300
Cables: $200
Installation and Calibration: $0
Movie/CD/Game Player: $400

[digitalErich]

Details, details....whether the numbers jive, I get what he's asking. The PS3 is only a bargain to people that would spend a couple thousand dollars or so on A/V equipment, and is this really the demographic that Sony should be targeting? How large is this market and are they gamers?

I think it's a relevant and interesting set of questions, myself.

[Jack B]

My set up

High-definition television: $3,400
Stereo Receiver: $300
Speakers: $300
Cables: $200
Installation and Calibration: $0
Movie/CD/Game Player: $400

Yep, that's about the same as mine. I know a bunch that spent less however, and some that aren't playing on an HDTV with the 360.

It still has value to use the PS3 or 360 without HD (ie the Live is much better, better physics, bigger worlds, better graphics/not as much, but still better..).

To really see the difference you should get a reasonably large HDTV with 720p/1080i or 1080p and a broadband connection for Live type content and multiplayer, but not everyone does...

[digitalErich]

This is not kotaku - we don't need sensationalist headlines to attract people.
Oh Snap!!! Seriously though, I've always thought Kotaku did that more for humor, ala the Onion, that to sensationalize and drive traffic to their site.

[AniAko]

The title as it stands right now more accurately reflects the content of the article without flamebaiting.

This is not kotaku - we don't need sensationalist headlines to attract people.

The words "PS3", "Nintendo" & "Microsoft"is flamebait enough fit ;)

You've just invited all the fanbois into a single thread :eek:

[Kamalot]

I think it's a relevant and interesting set of questions, myself.
There are only a small set of Sony blowhards that would think otherwise. Maybe somehwere in the neighborhood of 2-3%? Siraris is one.

[51|RandoM]

I think the real point being "How many people can afford a setup like the one mentioned above" as opposed to that setup being unrealistic.

And where does it say 2200 for cables? Mind you, anything over 100 is too much if you ask me, but 2200?

I have a very nice HDTV that cost me all of 900 dollars new, and that was even a stretch. 2500? For any average american or japanese? Unlikely.

$400 isn't unusual at all to cable a full HT setup. You can dump $100 easy on just the HDMI cable. Then you've got other interconnects, speaker cables, etc.

Dumped around $5k on a plasma, another $3k on a projector, front speakers were $1500/pair, $4k on the receiver, $800 on a DVD/SACD/DVD-A player.

Maybe that is why I don't see the PS3 as being unreasonably priced for what you get. My last DVD player cost more than the PS3.

That said, the majority of my gaming isn't on that system. I prefer most stuff on a 24 inch LCD with multiple inputs and a pair of Sennheiser headphones. I can surf the net and have the 360 dashboard up in PiP, or vice versa. I pretty much only use the projector for movies and I don't even turn the plasma on anymore except for the occasional soccer/football game.

[fitbabits]

Oh Snap!!! Seriously though, I've always thought Kotaku did that more for humor, ala the Onion, that to sensationalize and drive traffic to their site.
Mentioning kotaku and The Onion in the same sentence should get you banned, but I'll let it fly this time. :)

[Zanzibar]

I think the real point being "How many people can afford a setup like the one mentioned above" as opposed to that setup being unrealistic.

And where does it say 2200 for cables? Mind you, anything over 100 is too much if you ask me, but 2200?

I have a very nice HDTV that cost me all of 900 dollars new, and that was even a stretch. 2500? For any average american or japanese? Unlikely.

Sorry, meant $2200 adding together the cables AND theater system (Receiver and Speakers), which he had all separately. I still say that's ludicrous. I'll be lucky to spend $400 for my budget theater system with cables.

[digitalErich]

Mentioning kotaku and The Onion in the same sentence should get you banned, but I'll let it fly this time. :)
Hey, check my profile...I live in the home of the Onion, I would never do that : ) I wasn't equating them at all, simply saying that Kotaku's headlines are an attempt at Onion-like humor and not sensationalistic in way the Inquirer is, for example. Also, I never said Kotaku was succesful in their attempts, either : )

[Siraris]

Siraris, go ahead and bag on Kamalot... If you knew about this report why you didn't post it...? Don't bother answering that one, most here already know the answer.

As much as Kamalot posts negative Sony info, you try to dismiss every bit of it. I can't remember the last time you agreed with anything and I mean anything negative about Sony. Everything they do is a brilliant idea as far as your concerned.

And to think I was wondering how long it would take for you to ask the mods to lock this thread... :p

Analysts are always pure speculation, that's what they do is speculate on the future. If someone writes 600 pages, I think they've certainly done some research.

Excuse me for being skeptical, but you've already had time to read his 600 pages, to know what he left out?????

He may be right or wrong, but he should get a bit more credit than dismissing his speculation like it was some fanboy post.

His speculation has been repeated by other analysts, fanboys and non-biased sources as well. It doesn't make it right or wrong just an educated guess.

Every year we speculate on who will win the Superbowl. This is no different.

Thank you captain obvious! I don't dismiss much Sony news unless it's dismissible. We've been hearing this shit for MONTHS now, why do we need to hear it over and over again?

Although I like Sony's direction, I feel that they have made some big mistakes. I think Ken alienates a lot of people and needs to be axed, and I think the price is going to be a big thing to swallow for a lot of people. Aside from that, I don't see any problem with what Sony is doing.

[fitbabits]

Hey, check my profile...I live in the home of the Onion, I would never do that : ) I wasn't equating them at all, simply saying that Kotaku's headlines are an attempt at Onion-like humor and not sensationalistic in way the Inquirer is, for example. Also, I never said Kotaku was succesful in their attempts, either : )
I thought The Onion was based in Boulder, CO. The reason I say that is I've been to The Onion's office up there and the papers are everywhere. Huh, you learn something new every day!

Oh, and kotaku's headlines are at best misleading and at worst a downright lie. So there.

[bean19]

The PS3 is going to have a high price? When did this happen? Why hasn't anyone brought this up before?

lol.

This is very much a follow-up story. . . same story, new source.

[Magnanimous Gnome]

There are only a small set of Sony blowhards that would think otherwise. Maybe somehwere in the neighborhood of 2-3%? Siraris is one.


You're honestly deluding yourself if you believe that the PS3 will end up with 3% of the market, or anything less than 20% for that matter. Hell I'd be surprised if it had less than 40% of the market.

[digitalErich]

I thought The Onion was based in Boulder, CO. The reason I say that is I've been to The Onion's office up there and the papers are everywhere. Huh, you learn something new every day!

Oh, and kotaku's headlines are at best misleading and at worst a downright lie. So there.
Yep, The Onion was started by two University of Wisconsin students, back in the late 80's. They do have an office in Boulder, though.

Ok, I will give you that about Kotaku's headlines...not sure why I even stuck up for them in the first place.

[Magnanimous Gnome]

I thought The Onion was based in Boulder, CO. The reason I say that is I've been to The Onion's office up there and the papers are everywhere. Huh, you learn something new every day!

Oh, and kotaku's headlines are at best misleading and at worst a downright lie. So there.



Sheesh, EVERYONE knows that The Onion comes out of crazy liberal Madison. The writers crank out the articles in between shifts at local coffeeshops and working on their bronzes. Sheesh fits, you should be ashamed. :p

[digitalErich]

Sheesh, EVERYONE knows that The Onion comes out of crazy liberal Madison. The writers crank out the articles in between shifts at local coffeeshops and working on their bronzes. Sheesh fits, you should be ashamed. :p
Acutally (and I'm not 100% sure on this), most of the editorial staff resides in New York City. Fits may now return fire.

Edit: Yes, we are all crazy liberal here. It's like California, but without the nice weather and all the hot chicks.

[Vermillion]

Zan, who the HELL did you pay 1000 for installation and setup? My gawd man, you're crazy.

This is what it took me with my 360:

Sony 40" Bravia: $2999
Denon 3806 Receiver: $1200
Polk Audio 6.0 Speakers: $800
Xbox 360: $399
Cables (1 HDMI, 1 Optical): $120
Installation: $0

The price difference for a PS3 is roughly 5-10% above 360 for entire system setup. Bollocks.

[UnderHero5]

See, it's when people start throwing around the crazy amount of money they've spent on their setups that I know I'm not ready to switch to HD any time soon.

I spend 50 bucks on my used SD 32" tv. I put my audio out to my old Philips stereo cd player, and that's it. Total Price? Hmm... I got the stereo probably 8 years ago as a birthday present... so that didn't cost me anything (it was probably $150 at the time) and the tv... so... $200 dollars for my entire "home theater" setup, lol.

To be honest, I'm perfectly content with standard def right now. The extra resolution isn't going to make my games more fun. I had 5.1 hooked up for a while but decided to use it for my PC setup instead, as it made little difference to me on my consoles. To be honest, it isn't that big of a deal on my PC either, luckily I paid $60 for my 5.1 speaker setup. It does come in handy in online FPS's though, but that's about it, and even there it's not THAT big of a deal.

An HD tv costs more an my entire PC setup cost to build (about $1500 almost 2 years ago)... that's how I know I'm not ready for HD. I'm mostly a PC/handheld gamer anyway.

I used to consider myself tech savvy, but I just can't bring myself to make the switch to HD... no freaking way am I spending all that money on something so trivial (to me).

I've used my friends HD tv, and unless you upgrade EVERYTHING to HD, then your old stuff (cable, PS2 games, etc) look like shit because the resolution shows every flaw there is. I'd rather just have my SD tv cover that stuff up, heh.

[Heretic Machine]

See, it's when people start throwing around the crazy amount of money they've spent on their setups that I know I'm not ready to switch to HD any time soon.

I spent $400 on a widescreen Panasonic Tau 26" HDTV. Works just fine for me. It'd be nice to have more, and to have a nice surround sound system to go with it, but I'm cool with this.

[Siraris]

You don't need to spend 2 grand on a TV to get HD as Perigon demonstrated. And as people spend more money on hi-def TV's, the prices will drop. I spent $1600 on my 42" DLP 2 years ago.

As for Underhero, it's all relative. I can totally see you not wanting to spend money on TV's, but a lot of people do. My friend who doesn't make much money and lives paycheck to paycheck just bought a 36" HDTV.

[Lister]

Zan, who the HELL did you pay 1000 for installation and setup? My gawd man, you're crazy.

This is what it took me with my 360:

Sony 40" Bravia: $2999
Denon 3806 Receiver: $1200
Polk Audio 6.0 Speakers: $800
Xbox 360: $399
Cables (1 HDMI, 1 Optical): $120
Installation: $0

The price difference for a PS3 is roughly 5-10% above 360 for entire system setup. Bollocks.

If you are going to spend 5k+ on a HT system, you need to have it professionally calibrated. They make a WORLD of difference. You think your system looks nice now, come back after it's been calibrated. We have a company here that offers money back guarantees, and nobody has EVER asked for their money back.

[Kamalot]

You're honestly deluding yourself if you believe that the PS3 will end up with 3% of the market, or anything less than 20% for that matter. Hell I'd be surprised if it had less than 40% of the market.Where did I say that the PS3 install base would be 3%? :confused:

I find it interesting that your predictions put the PS3 install base somewhere between 20-40% of the market. That leaves a large chunk of consoles, the majority in fact, that aren't the PS3. Could that mean you forsee the PS3 coming in 3rd place this generation?

[Kamalot]

Although I like Sony's direction, I feel that they have made some big mistakes. I think Ken alienates a lot of people and needs to be axed, and I think the price is going to be a big thing to swallow for a lot of people. Aside from that, I don't see any problem with what Sony is doing.Congratulations. You've identified the tip of the iceberg.

[Zanzibar]

Zan, who the HELL did you pay 1000 for installation and setup? My gawd man, you're crazy.

This is what it took me with my 360:

Sony 40" Bravia: $2999
Denon 3806 Receiver: $1200
Polk Audio 6.0 Speakers: $800
Xbox 360: $399
Cables (1 HDMI, 1 Optical): $120
Installation: $0

The price difference for a PS3 is roughly 5-10% above 360 for entire system setup. Bollocks.

Aiee! No, not me! I'm just quoting what the analyst said, which I was questioning. That's my question, who the hell would pay that much to get it installed, and pay that much for cables/HT system. But, then again, I see how you've spent $2120 for your home theater setup + cables, so I guess he's not too far off.

[Magnanimous Gnome]

Where did I say that the PS3 install base would be 3%? :confused:

I find it interesting that your predictions put the PS3 install base somewhere between 20-40% of the market. That leaves a large chunk of consoles, the majority in fact, that aren't the PS3. Could that mean you forsee the PS3 coming in 3rd place this generation?


I can see it coming in second, but probably not third.

I thought you were talking about the PS3 only getting 2 or 3 percent of the market ala Apple in the computer market. Maybe I misread what you were trying to say.

[Magnanimous Gnome]

Acutally (and I'm not 100% sure on this), most of the editorial staff resides in New York City. Fits may now return fire.

Edit: Yes, we are all crazy liberal here. It's like California, but without the nice weather and all the hot chicks.


You do have good cheese though, and lots of vegetarians - those I can both get behind. I've met a LOT of Wisconsites who have migrated to the Cities. The anti-Wisconsin jokes I've heard here do get a little ridiculous...


Edit - I wanted to add that the weather here is far from nice. This past winter was very cold (and I've heard it was mild compared to normal MN winters) and the last week or so has been very, very hot and humid. Ick.

[Zechs01]

Wow, are all analysts on drugs? I mean who would pay people to sit around and say stuff that has no evidence.

[bean19]

Wow, are all analysts on drugs? I mean who would pay people to sit around and say stuff that has no evidence.

Um. . . analysts are paid to make predictions based on the data available. That 600 page report is their explanation of what data was considered and how they considered to come to their predictions.

Analysts are highly paid professionals that stake their reputations (their livelihoods really) on the accuracy of their predictions.

Smart ones are vague unless they have strong evidence that their predictions will be accurate.

[Zechs01]

Did you know the Oracle at Delphi (http://www.dreamscape.com/morgana/desdemon.htm) was in a drug induced state when making predictions.

[bean19]

Zechs - Yes. I knew that.

But did you know this (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wGR4-SeuJ0)?

[Zechs01]

I know that was kinda random but that just poped into my head when i read about the "analysts" predicting stuff

[dimsumx]

If you are going to spend 5k+ on a HT system, you need to have it professionally calibrated. They make a WORLD of difference. You think your system looks nice now, come back after it's been calibrated. We have a company here that offers money back guarantees, and nobody has EVER asked for their money back.

Avia.

That's all you really need IMO.

Currently running:

- Samsung 56" DLP HDTV
- Samsung Upscaling HDMI DVD player
- Pioneer 6.1 Receiver
- Polk R30s fronts + surrounds, CSi25 Center
- XB360, XB, PS2, GC + network on a Psyclone component switcher.
- Harmony X360 remote to rule them all.