Sony Has Diode Production Problems?

[NoName]

Take this with a grain of salt as it comes from here (http://www.imdb.com/news/sb/2006-07-11/#3) , but this could explain a lot about why so few PS3s are expected to be available at launch.
And the delays keep coming for Sony's Blu-ray high-definition DVD system. China's Commercial Times newspaper is reporting that Sony's production facilities have not been able to meet the demand for the diode that generates the blue laser at the heart of the HD system. Both Sony's own plants and those of Japan's Nichia Corp., the only two suppliers of the diodes, have been plagued by production problems, the newspaper said. The supply problem, it observed, could not only delay production of Blu-ray DVD players for Sony and other manufacturers, but could also delay the release of PlayStation 3 models, now scheduled for November.
[I]This really isn't meant as anti-Sony news but if it's true then PS3s may be hard to get for a long time after launch. While I'm not a big Sony fan I'm starting to feel sorry for them, they can't seem to get a break.

[jacktion]

I understand your pity but it's not like they are farmers who are at the mercy of the elements and plagues of locusts. This is an electronics company. They are in tight control of every element of their business. And most of these bad happenings are direct results of their own actions. Basically, they are the masters of their domain and they are screwing things up for themselves. Personal responsibility is big in Japan. I imagine Kutaragi bowing before the Board every night saying, "I am very sorry I fucked up so bad!!" Or something to that effect.

[Paranoia]

Rumors? Its almost a fact given the delays of Blu-ray players by even Sony themselves!

[askheaves]

This goes to show how one or a few elements in such a complex system can hold up production so easily. This is why Microsoft built the first xbox using so many off the shelf components. It's also why you could find 2 or 3 different manufacturers of harddrives and DVD drives in their system... it was a way to mitigate potential supplier problems and risk.

MS has moved a little bit away from that with the 360, but you know they were getting their ducks in a row for a long time before production began so they wouldn't be held up by a shortage of memory modules or something. Hell, they seperated out some of the custom chips into seperate dies (i believe the 10MB of cache vs. the graphics chip... or something like that) because they knew their process would get a higher yield that way for the next year or so.

Now Sony's launch of its flagship product and ever-sinking PR nightmare is held up by diode production? I take that news with a grain of salt, seeing as how LEDs aren't THAT hard to make (even the blue ones)... but I wouldn't be surprised seeing another component fall into that same trap (software). :-D

[antoniogaud]

Remember the fanboi brigade with more Internet access than either brains or common sense? They howled that it couldn't be true because their ego is staked on the PS3 that they will someday have. It just can't be happening. Well, we wonder if they will believe IBM Semiconductor VPs?

One of these pointed out that cell yields are in the 10-20 per cent range . With logic redundancy (translation: 'PS3 buyers only need seven SPEs [Synergistic Processing Elements], more would just be too much for such simple creatures'), they can double that. This suggests yields of 20-40 per cent.

Intel would have a hit squad sent off to deal with production execs if one merely cracked a joke about 70 per cent yields, and I can't see how 40 per cent will ever make the PS3 economically viable.

I take it you guys already read this in The Inquirer? (http://theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=32978) Seems to have some backing this time from the Reed Electronics Group online site (http://www.reed-electronics.com/electronicnews/article/CA6350202.html?industryid=21365) (see below).

Reeves: Defects. It becomes a bigger problem the bigger the chip is. With chips that are one-by-one and silicon germanium, we can get yields of 95 percent. With a chip like the Cell processor, you’re lucky to get 10 or 20 percent. If you put logic redundancy on it, you can double that.

[DropD98]

Wow. So I may be able to get one sometime around 2010? LOL. Well, I guess I could look at it this way, if true. It gives me a lot more time to put more money to the side to help pay for the thing when and if I ever find one to buy....

[TheBrainKills]

Wow, you guy's are so negative. This is actually good news, because there will be alot more Blue Ray movies available when it does get released.

[Kamalot]

I'm starting to feel sorry for them, they can't seem to get a break.No sympathy here. Who wanted the PS3 to have a Bluray drive in it? Gamers?

Sony brought this upon themself when they tried to trojan horse their new disc format into our living room. The only one to blame is Sony. Their fault, their problem.

[antoniogaud]

Using my keen industrial designer training I will say the following:

I will be amazed if Sony reaches their manufacturing goal by the time it is supposed to be introduced in November. The reasons are simple, the machine is complicated and relies on 2 untested technologies. If the yields on both BluRay and Cell are what they are reported as being, then the impact on manufacturing will be enormous - essentially postponing a full production start until late August or early september.

I've seen production problems happen with toys that are MUCH less complicated than a gaming console - this should have Sony stockholders seriously concerned. #1 rule in manufacturing: when producing a new technology always keep production runs LOW to test and improve yields. Sony's ambitious plans to create 1 million PS3s a month is akin to the captain of the Titanic increasing speed as he attempts to navigate an iceberg field.

Sony is on course for a major disaster.

The Wii has already entered manufacturing but according to reports the PS3 circuit board doesn't even start shipping to Sony until Q3!! If you thought the X360 launch had problems...

[Kamalot]

Wow, you guy's are so negative. This is actually good news, because there will be alot more Blue Ray movies available when it does get released.Are you talking about movie players or the PS3? Frankly, I don't care HOW many Bluray movies are available when PS3 ships as I'm interested in gaming.

[Zanzibar]

I've heard about the diode problems as well, but didn't hear about the low Cell yields. TEN percent??? Wow. He mentions that they've got a lot of 6 SPE-functional chips, I wonder if the PS3 really NEEDS 7 instead of 6...

[Rook34]

Wow, you guy's are so negative. This is actually good news, because there will be alot more Blue Ray movies available when it does get released.

Lol!

O.k., let me look into my crytall ball here. I see fanbois in the near future...they're unhappy...and they're trying to put a good spin on it...what are they saying? Oh, they're saying "The PS3 has been cancelled! This is GOOD news because now they can start over and make a PS4 that will REALLY kick the crap out of the 360&wii!"

I love sarcasm. November can't get here soon enough. I really want to see how it all turn out. I'm ready to laugh...must wait..

Sorry BrainKills, I'm not picking on you personally, nor calling you a fanboy, but I have seen many a fanboy use the same argument, except usually saying how it will help them save more money to buy it WHEN it does come out.

[Kamalot]

I've heard about the diode problems as well, but didn't hear about the low Cell yields. TEN percent??? Wow. He mentions that they've got a lot of 6 SPE-functional chips, I wonder if the PS3 really NEEDS 7 instead of 6...
I remember recently some fanboys posting about how Cell yeilds had increased faster than any other processer. My rebuttal was that the initial yields must have been very low to begin with if they can so quickly improve yeilds. I had NO IDEA that they were as low as 10%!

Of course, any improvement from 10% would seem astronomical. It is much more difficult to improve yeilds if you are getting a 96% yeild out of it.

[SexualChoc]

Hmmm. Now while this could be bad, it could be worse if Sony cells faulty PS3's with the broken diodes. What's worse than not getting a PS3? Getting a broken one and waiting a year for a new one.

[Achilles]

I've heard about the diode problems as well, but didn't hear about the low Cell yields. TEN percent??? Wow. He mentions that they've got a lot of 6 SPE-functional chips, I wonder if the PS3 really NEEDS 7 instead of 6...I believe the Cell has twice as many transistors as the 360’s chip, which leaves a lot more room for error. They were proud of that at E3 2005 but it looks like it’s come back to haunt them.

[Salesmunn]

We'll all be worse off if Sony doesn't get their act together with the PS3. Competition is a good thing.

[51|RandoM]

The diode shortage meshes nicely with Sony cornering the market on parts specifically required to produce blu-ray players. China's Commercial Times by way of IMDB, that is something I'll believe.

The Cell yields stuff though came from one place only, the inquirer, and their source is an unnamed person. There is a similar link on reed-electronics, but I can't get that page to come up anymore. They don't say they're low, they say that relatively low yields are typical for a chip "like" Cell. If they're typical, one would imagine that such yields have been planned for, yes?

Ah, I got it, now read it closely:

"Electronic News: Let’s look at design for manufacturability from a different standpoint. IBM has said it needs seven of the eight cores on the Cell processor to work for Sony’s Playstation. Will there be an aftermarket for chips with fewer operational cores?
Reeves: There are a lot of chips with six cores operational, and we’ve been thinking about whether we should really throw all of those away. We also have a separate part number for chips with all eight cores good. The stuff that’s going to be for medical imaging, aerospace and defense and data uses eight cores.

Electronic News: But might it be the less-expensive version of Playstation 3?
Reeves: It could, but I don’t think Sony has thought about offering that. That doesn’t mean there aren’t good uses for a chip with four SPEs [synergistic processing elements].

Electronic News: What’s the defining factor that makes some chips better than others?
Reeves: Defects. It becomes a bigger problem the bigger the chip is. With chips that are one-by-one and silicon germanium, we can get yields of 95 percent. With a chip like the Cell processor, you’re lucky to get 10 or 20 percent. If you put logic redundancy on it, you can double that. It’s a great strategy, and I’m not sure anyone other than IBM is doing that with logic. Everybody does it with DRAM. There are always extra bits in there for memory. People have not yet moved to logic block redundancy, though."

So he said "like" a cell, and "like" a cell without logic redundancy. I can't tell if he is saying that "cell" has that or not. Either way, he didn't say that those were the yields that IBM was currently experiencing with Cell, much less the yields they're experiencing now.

Typical yields for a new, complex processor are 10-20%, btw, typically ramping up to 50% or more after a couple years. These numbers seem insanely bad and one might wonder how they can operate a business like that. Well, in comes binning. Doesn't sound like they're speed binning the Cell at all. They are binning by operational SPE units.

[Kamalot]

We'll all be worse off if Sony doesn't get their act together with the PS3. Competition is a good thing.
Well then Sony should stop shooting themself in the foot.

And I could agree that competition is a good thing, it beings prices down and builds better products. Both of those seem to be not true when it comes to the Sony PS3.

[51|RandoM]

Well then Sony should stop shooting themself in the foot.

And I could agree that competition is a good thing, it beings prices down and builds better products. Both of those seem to be not true when it comes to the Sony PS3.

Well, feature for feature, if we ever see a working "premium" PS3, it'll be a better product than an xbox360. That is splitting hairs though, since a console is only as strong as its library. That was proven last generation when the xbox was clearly superior in terms of hardware/features to the ps2.

[Siraris]

Doesn't sound too worisome to me. Any new processor is going to produce lower yields at the beginning of its life. LCD's, RAM, Flash Memory, all of these products start out with extremely low yields and ramp their way up.

I'm wondering what the yields will be like when they move to 65nm. As Reeves stated, the larger the chip the lower the yields.

[Jack B]

Using my keen industrial designer training I will say the following:

I will be amazed if Sony reaches their manufacturing goal by the time it is supposed to be introduced in November. The reasons are simple, the machine is complicated and relies on 2 untested technologies. If the yields on both BluRay and Cell are what they are reported as being, then the impact on manufacturing will be enormous - essentially postponing a full production start until late August or early september.

I've seen production problems happen with toys that are MUCH less complicated than a gaming console - this should have Sony stockholders seriously concerned. #1 rule in manufacturing: when producing a new technology always keep production runs LOW to test and improve yields. Sony's ambitious plans to create 1 million PS3s a month is akin to the captain of the Titanic increasing speed as he attempts to navigate an iceberg field.

Sony is on course for a major disaster.

The Wii has already entered manufacturing but according to reports the PS3 circuit board doesn't even start shipping to Sony until Q3!! If you thought the X360 launch had problems...

I agree on Blu-Ray being untested, but I believe the Cell processors have been in production for some workstations for quite a while. The 1,700 parts of the PS3 could give them problems just as Microsoft had...

In the end it was an $8 GDDR3 memory chip that slowed/stopped the assembly lines for the 1,700 part Xbox 360. It's not easy to keep a supply chain running for a launch of any complex electronics product. Delay's and short supply are common.

[rahvii]

I wonder if PS3 is a OMGCOMPUTERSYSTEM there will be a divx codec for it... there's already a method to rip HD movies :P.

LOL @ BLURAY :D

[Dag-Sabot]

Sony Launch '06: "The day the music diode".
:D

[TheBrainKills]

Lol!

....

I love sarcasm. ....

O.K. Ya got me. I love sarcasm too.

Sony should charge $1000 for the PS3 or keep it in line with the stand alone BluRay players. There will be so few of them kicking around that they can easily charge whatever they want for them. I have to admit Crazy Ken was right on this one.

[rahvii]

There will be so few of them kicking around that they can easily charge whatever they want for them

That's cool, as long as there's a price cut in 2007... and Sony doesn't "price cut" in a regular basis

[OrangePulp]

Shortages are good news to me, provided I can secure one for myself; it makes the eBay value go up. 300% profit, here I come!

[dirtbag]

Burn, BluRay, Burn!

I rejoice in seeing Sony punished for their own arrogant decision to try to push BluRay on people who just want to play games (and make us pay an extra $200 if we fall for it). I hate to sound mean, but Sony is getting just what it deserves.

[Twigz'N'Berries]

The Wii has already entered manufacturing but according to reports the PS3 circuit board doesn't even start shipping to Sony until Q3!! If you thought the X360 launch had problems...

What reports?