Nintendo Announces Wii Launch Estimates

[Evil Avatar]

Directly from Nintendo comes word that they plan to ship 6 Million Wii systems between the system launch this fall and March 31, 2007. No numbers were provided on how many systems will be available for the system launch itself.

Following its overwhelming debut at E3 2006, Nintendo today announced the current fiscal year unit shipment forecast for its new home game system, Wii. Nintendo also confirmed that the price of the Wii system, which incorporates unique freehand control, will not exceed $250 in America, or 25,000 yen in Japan. The company plans to ship 6 million systems to retailers around the world between its launch in the fourth quarter of 2006 and the end of its fiscal year on March 31, 2007.

The projections are part of a full-year financial forecast that sees growth of 18 percent in sales globally, based on anticipated continuing strong demand for the Nintendo DS portable game system, as well as a successful launch for Wii.

The company also said it expects to sell 17 million Wii games in the period. Exact launch dates, identification of the launch library of titles and details on the unique Virtual Console aspect of Wii will be announced soon.Comparing this to the Sony launch estimates (3 Million systems worldwide at launch and 2 Million more worldwide before the end of December.), that is a very low number. Expect major Xbox 360-style shortages of the Wii this Christmas.

Looks like Microsoft is the big winner for Christmas 2006 as they will be the only company with hardware on the shelves.

[Evil Avatar]

I would also like to know how they plan to sell 17 Million games when they will only have around 3 Million systems available at launch. That is an attach rate of like 5 to 1, from a company that usually launches with only two to four titles.

That would mean that every Wii owner is expected to purchase every Wii title available. Heh.

[bapenguin]

Lol. We posted this at the exact same time Evil.

I think we'll see shortages of both the PS3 and Wii this x-mas no matter what.

[Evil Avatar]

Lol. We posted this at the exact same time Evil.

I think we'll see shortages of both the PS3 and Wii this x-mas no matter what.

Great minds are up in the middle of the night! :)

I agree, there are going to be very few people who can get ahold of either system this year. Nintendo's numbers seem very conservative to me... Sony is trying to say that they are going to jam like 2 Million more systems on the shelf every month, where Nintendo seems like they are only shooting for like 1 Million a month.

Those are both huge shortages compared with what I would expect demand to be. Sony demand will be big, but Nintendo... man those fans are fanatical (if you will excuse the pun). Wii demand will be monumental and there will be no systems to be found anywhere.

(To be honest, I doubt either company can meet those numbers. 1 - 2 million a month is a lot of systems.)

[sparkfizt]

hopefully retailers have learned a lesson with the 360 launch and do a better job with pre-orders. There were lots of miffed people who placed pre-orders expecting to get one early when all it actually meant is they were screwed till march-april :P

[bone_matrix]

I suspect that Nintendo will be able to meet their numbers more readily than Sony, just based upon the makeup of each system. New tech in the PS3, proven tech in the Wii.

Either way, not being more expensive than $250 sounds good to me (hopefully with some pack in stuff).

[Doctor Setebos]

Sony demand will be big, but Nintendo... man those fans are fanatical (if you will excuse the pun).The word fans comes from the word fanatics, so you basically just said those fanatics are fanatical, which is really kind of funny when you look at it.

And yes. Yes we are most fanatical. :D

[theguido]

Do they mean 17 million Nintendo titles or 17 million titles including third-party publishers? Because it's very doable if the third party publishers are included because the amount of launch titles is actually going to be pretty decent this time around. Nintendo will have
Twilight Princess, Warioware, and Prime 3, and if I remember right I think that Elebits, Madden 2007, Rayman Raving Rabbits, Dragon Quest, Trauma Center, Red Steel and Super Monkey Ball are all going to be available at launch. So, if that is in fact correct I think that Nintendo will definitely be able to meet those estimates.

If it's just for their own games though, that's probably a little crazy.

But yes, there will be shortages if the 6 million number is correct. Hopefully they were just being conservative.

[Evil Avatar]

Do they mean 17 million Nintendo titles or 17 million titles including third-party publishers? Because it's very doable if the third party publishers are included because the amount of launch titles is actually going to be pretty decent this time around. Nintendo will have Twilight Princess, Warioware, and Prime 3, and if I remember right I think that Elebits, Madden 2007, Rayman Raving Rabbits, Dragon Quest, Trauma Center, Red Steel and Super Monkey Ball are all going to be available at launch. So, if that is in fact correct I think that Nintendo will definitely be able to meet those estimates.

If it's just for their own games though, that's probably a little crazy.

I'm sure they are including third party titles.

Honestly, it is crazy either way. Attach rate for a new system is usually like 1.5 games per system. A high attach rate would be 2 games per system. That would only be 9 Million games or 12 Million games, not 17 Million.

[Worldcrafter]

The word fans comes from the word fanatics, so you basically just said those fanatics are fanatical, which is really kind of funny when you look at it.
Your fans are fanatical, that's KABLAMO!!!

I really have no idea what to expect with the Wii's launch. It would be great if it sold out everywhere, because that means Nintendo has done what they set out to do. On the other hand, I really want one on day one, and short of preordering at EB (ugh) I don't see how I'll get one if they turn out to be popular.

I know a lot of people who are interested in the Wii, but probably won't buy one until they've seen/played one. So maybe the early adopters will get the first systems easily, and then demand at retailers will shoot up.

Ahhh, who knows.

[Worldcrafter]

I'm sure they are including third party titles.

Honestly, it is crazy either way. Attach rate for a new system is usually like 1.5 games per system. A high attach rate would be 2 games per system. That would only be 9 Million games or 12 Million games, not 17 Million.

True, though if the Wii is $200 and the games are $50, then people might be more willing to grab 2 or more games at launch. That would be far less than a 360 and that's not including a game for the 360. But yeah, I think people will walk into stores thinking they're going to spend $200, and when they realize they need a game too, they MIGHT be coerced into paying an extra $100 for 2 games, but $150 for 3 games (or more for more) is probably a pretty hard sell.

[mkelehan]

Sony said 2 million at launch, 2 million by year's end, and 2 million by end of March 2007. 6 million total.

Nintendo said 6 million by end of March 2007.

How exactly does Nintendo's number seem small compared to Sony's, when it's exactly the same?

[Doctor Setebos]

Attach rate for a new system is usually like 1.5 games per system.How do you buy half a game? :D (damn, I'm snarky today!)

I'll likely be standing out in the cold with several hundred dollars to buy the Wii and potentially every launch title they have.

[theguido]

I'm sure they are including third party titles.

Honestly, it is crazy either way. Attach rate for a new system is usually like 1.5 games per system. A high attach rate would be 2 games per system. That would only be 9 Million games or 12 Million games, not 17 Million.

Well, reading the article again, it seems they may be talking about by the end of the fiscal year as opposed to during the launch period. If the console launches in late October/early November, 5 games sold per system by the end of March doesn't seem quite as crazy.

[Lutheran]

Ill have one on launch day , as soon as a preorder is accepted ill be handing over the 250 large. I was going to try and buy like 2 or 3 of them from different preorders and make a killing on EBAY but I can't bring myself to do it , its just not fair to try and horde them just so I can make an extra thousand this year. It is tempting though , there are a lot of lazy people out there who would rather pay 2 or 3 times the normal cost rather then go preorder. I should know , as normally I am the one on EBAY buying not selling.

[Borys]

I'm sure they are including third party titles.

Honestly, it is crazy either way. Attach rate for a new system is usually like 1.5 games per system. A high attach rate would be 2 games per system. That would only be 9 Million games or 12 Million games, not 17 Million.

IIRC Xbox 360 has (or had at launch?) 4.4 attach rate.

[benig]

I'm sure they are including third party titles.

Honestly, it is crazy either way. Attach rate for a new system is usually like 1.5 games per system. A high attach rate would be 2 games per system. That would only be 9 Million games or 12 Million games, not 17 Million.You have to remember one of these titles is a Zelda game.

[bone_matrix]

I'm sure they are including third party titles.

Honestly, it is crazy either way. Attach rate for a new system is usually like 1.5 games per system. A high attach rate would be 2 games per system. That would only be 9 Million games or 12 Million games, not 17 Million.


Didn't the 360 have an attach rate of 4 games or something like that? And the 360 and its games are more expensive than the Wii.

[benig]

Didn't the 360 have an attach rate of 4 games or something like that? And the 360 and its games are more expensive than the Wii.
Not to mention that the Wii launch lineup looks worlds more compelling then the 360's.

[Zaro]

How do you buy half a game? :D [i](damn, I'm snarky today!).
Who never heard about episodic games :)

At think i'll take at least three games, Zelda, Metroid and

Wii Sport or
Monkey Ball or
Excite Truck or
Tony Hawk...

[Paranoia]

Which is better, get an X360 with some 160 titles to choose from or a PS3 with less than 20 titles this coming holiday?

Tough choice, eh?

[holysin]

will not exceed $250

Well... 249 dollars doesnt exceed 250, so there´s your price


Which is better, get an X360 with some 160 titles to choose from or a PS3 with less than 20 titles this coming holiday?

Tough choice, eh?


As always, quantity doesnt mean quality :)
But which is better? Both if the PS3 has good launch titles. Otherwise, wait for some good games to come out

[theguido]

Well... 249 dollars doesnt exceed 250, so there´s your price

Well, maybe, but 25,000 Yen is actually approximately $223 U.S., so it could be more like $200.

[holysin]

Well, maybe, but 25,000 Yen is actually approximately $223 U.S., so it could be more like $200.


hmmm indeed... And games are usually more expensive in japan... eah, probably $200, maybe 249

[Kamalot]

I'm sure they are including third party titles.

Honestly, it is crazy either way. Attach rate for a new system is usually like 1.5 games per system. A high attach rate would be 2 games per system. That would only be 9 Million games or 12 Million games, not 17 Million.
Attach rate may be very high IF:

Wii launches with 20 games
Games are less expensive than on other consoles

Having the system itself come in under $250 will help a lot too.

You can either buy a PS3 or Wii and a crapload of games for the same amount.

[ChaosDent]

IIRC Xbox 360 has (or had at launch?) 4.4 attach rate.

The 360 still has an attach rate of over 4, that's reflective of the type of audience the system has. I doubt Nintendo expects this kind of attach rate short term or long term. Look at the wording, Nintendo plans to ship 17 million games and 6 million systems. They don't expect to sell them all, though the system could be in short supply for months.

[Kamalot]

As always, quantity doesnt mean quality :)
But which is better? Both if the PS3 has good launch titles. Otherwise, wait for some good games to come out
Quantity doesn't mean Quality?
You sound like a Nintendo fan. :D

Let me ask you, when has any PlayStation launch ever had a killer lineup?

[51|RandoM]

Which is better, get an X360 with some 160 titles to choose from or a PS3 with less than 20 titles this coming holiday?

Tough choice, eh?

Easy choice, based upon where the titles you want are.

[Doctor Setebos]

Well... 249 dollars doesnt exceed 250, so there´s your price.Interesting thing that's worth noting. The GameCube launched in Japan at 25,000 yen, and then launched in the US at $199. Maybe the Wii will be doing the same thing? A straight currency conversion may get us $222 dollars, but that doesn't actually mean anything.

[Serapth]

Easy choice, based upon where the titles you want are.

Really though... whats in the PS3's launch lineup to 1) sell the system or 2) that the 360 doesnt have an equivalent of? The PS3-esque games are a year or so down the road atleast ( DMC, FF, etc.. ). At launch, there isnt alot of incentive to buy a PS3 based on games alone.

[51|RandoM]

Let me ask you, when has any PlayStation launch ever had a killer lineup?

Playstation 2, had the best launch lineup in history: The entire Playstation catalog. For anybody who already had a playstation, you were basically just upgrading it while keeping all your favorite games.

:-)

[51|RandoM]

Really though... whats in the PS3's launch lineup to 1) sell the system or 2) that the 360 doesnt have an equivalent of? The PS3-esque games are a year or so down the road atleast ( DMC, FF, etc.. ). At launch, there isnt alot of incentive to buy a PS3 based on games alone.

...we won't know until it is released. For me, at least, there is just as much incentive to buy a ps3 as there is to buy a 360 at this particular moment.

[Paranoia]

Playstation 2, had the best launch lineup in history: The entire Playstation catalog.

Utter bull.

[theguido]

Interesting thing that's worth noting. The GameCube launched in Japan at 25,000 yen, and then launched in the US at $199. Maybe the Wii will be doing the same thing? A straight currency conversion may get us $222 dollars, but that doesn't actually mean anything.

Good point. I hadn't thought about that but it makes sense.

[theguido]

Utter bull.

In what way is it utter bull? The PS2 was backwards compatible, so the fact that it could play the entire Playstation catalog was a selling point for the people who had never bought a PS1. I know that's the reason I ended up buying one.

[51|RandoM]

Utter bull.

lol, love that fact-filled rebuttal. It is a really elegant way of stating your case.

[KSmitty]

I just wish Nintendo would stop cock teasing and just give a damn, price and release window. I am one of those silly people that likes to plan ahead, guess I'll just set $300 to the side right now and hold my breath for a definitive price.

-K

[Kefkataran]

Honestly, it is crazy either way. Attach rate for a new system is usually like 1.5 games per system. A high attach rate would be 2 games per system. That would only be 9 Million games or 12 Million games, not 17 Million.

True, but they said 17 million by the end of their fiscal year (March 31st, next year). So this wouldn't JUST be launch titles and it wouldn't JUST be people picking up titles when they get the system.

[Yeti2005]

...we won't know until it is released. For me, at least, there is just as much incentive to buy a ps3 as there is to buy a 360 at this particular moment.

Wait a minute, we don't know anything about the PS3 launch lineup and at this moment you have the same incentive to buy a PS3 as a 360?! Either a.) you dislike the current and future games on the 360 or b.) you have a very strong brand loyalty to Sony.

[Food Nipple]

In what way is it utter bull? The PS2 was backwards compatible, so the fact that it could play the entire Playstation catalog was a selling point for the people who had never bought a PS1. I know that's the reason I ended up buying one.

If you did not have a PS1 but bought a PS2 on day one, you are certainly in the minority. Usually the people buying consoles on day one are the hardcore, the early adopters. I think that most of them would definintely have owned PS1's, and so backwards compatability wasn't as big of a factor for most of the consumers buying the console at launch. I know that I wouldn't buy a console unless there was a NEW game that I wanted.

The way I read the press release, it seems like 25,000 yen is $225, ruling out a $250 price point, seeing as the US usually gets the cheapest electronics prices.

[Hellstorm]

Which is better, get an X360 with some 160 titles to choose from or a PS3 with less than 20 titles this coming holiday?

Tough choice, eh?

Nope. Smart people will buy a Wii.

[51|RandoM]

Wait a minute, we don't know anything about the PS3 launch lineup and at this moment you have the same incentive to buy a PS3 as a 360?! Either a.) you dislike the current and future games on the 360 or b.) you have a very strong brand loyalty to Sony.

There isn't anything on 360 that I want to play right now that I cannot play a better version of on my PC. The two games that I wanted to play, Oblivion and GRAW, I have played on my PC. GRAW on PC is a somewhat different game than on the 360, but it is different in ways that I actually prefer.

As far as what is coming out for 360 and PS3, I refuse to judge either set of games based upon hype. If it isn't shipping, it doesn't count.

I don't have any brand loyalty to anybody, except perhaps Nintendo. Even there, it isn't so much brand loyalty as an honest recognition of how great a job they do with their inhouse titles.

[51|RandoM]

I know that I wouldn't buy a console unless there was a NEW game that I wanted.


I bought a PS2 specifically to play through Final Fantasy Tactics again. I had owned a couple playstations previously, but had given them away over time, just keeping the games I really liked.

[Kefkataran]

Which is better, get an X360 with some 160 titles to choose from or a PS3 with less than 20 titles this coming holiday?

I love my 360, but I'll believe 160 titles when I see it.

[Paranoia]

In what way is it utter bull?

PS2 really did have a poor launch line-up.

Using backward compatibility to justify lack of launch titles, especially when most gamers are likely to have PS1 anyway, is really sad.

Its like saying PS3 will have the greatest launch lineup because it plays PS1 & PS2 games. How the hell are they thinking of convincing me of that when I already have TWO PS2s at home?

[Eggplant!]

The 360 still has an attach rate of over 4, that's reflective of the type of audience the system has.

Actually, I think that's reflective of the fact that it was hard to find a 360 outside a bundle. We've seen this trend recently where retailers tendancy to bundle systems pushes up the attach rate.

Just speculating... I know the article says Wii games, but perhaps they meant all games including DS? Lost in translation perhaps?

[Lord Dongkey]

Maybe I'm getting old and crotchety, but I plan on waiting until I can go into a store at my leisure and buy a damned system without having to pre-order or any of that scam bullshit.

And yes, before all you people get up in arms, pre-orders are *sometimes* a complete scam. Many large retailers will "play the float" and sell reserved copies of games/systems to other buyers and bank on the statistical fact that x% of reserves don't buy a system on day 1, and you get day 2 replenishment.

Does everyone? I like to think not. But I have no way to tell, and I've waited this long for the system, and I can damn well play some other game(s) for as long as it takes to get their supply leveled out and comfortably buy one of these things. Or ANY things, for that matter.

Yeah, I'm getting old and crotchety. /sigh

[theguido]

PS2 really did have a poor launch line-up.

Using backward compatibility to justify lack of launch titles, especially when most gamers are likely to have PS1 anyway, is really sad.

Its like saying PS3 will have the greatest launch lineup because it plays PS1 & PS2 games. How the hell are they thinking of convincing me of that when I already have TWO PS2s at home?

I had been in college during the PS1 era, so I didn't really mess with playing video games. I was too busy doing other things. Once I got to grad school I didn't have quite the social calendar. And considering that I was a Final Fantasy fan, the numerous FF's and other RPG's that I had missed, was FOR ME, a selling point and a reason to invest in the system.

And honestly, though the non-PS1 games the system launched with were fairly weak, very few consoles have great launch titles. The Wii is probably going to be the exception to this rule.

[Lon Lon Rabbit]

Let me ask you, when has any PlayStation launch ever had a killer lineup?

Give me Fantavision over Zelda and Metroid any day.

Hearing these numbers I'm just glad I pre ordered a "Revolution" back in October 05 with liksang. I should have one in my hands within a couple weeks of launch, no idea which region yet though...

[mos]

Every single time Nintendo released a console here in the US, it launched at $200 (http://curmudgeongamer.com/2006/05/history-of-console-prices-or-500-aint.html).

[[HATE]MyLife]

Just speculating... I know the article says Wii games, but perhaps they meant all games including DS? Lost in translation perhaps?
Or perhaps they're referring to Virtual Console titles as well?

[Worldcrafter]

Just noticed this (http://www.videogamesblogger.com/2006/05/25/nintendo-announces-japanese-wii-price.htm)via Slashdot. Apparently Nintendo announced to Famitsu that the maximum price for the Wii in Japan would be 25,000 yen which roughly translates to $225 in the US. However, they're still using the term maximum, so no solid price has been announced yet.

[Eggplant!]

However, they're still using the term maximum, so no solid price has been announced yet.

Heh! Yes, but any time a company says "less than X" they mean X-$1. I'll wager $249 will likely be the price, despite Nintendo's history of a $200 price point. All their competition is a lot more expensive. Why price it lower?

[Snowmit]

I think that's it awesome and hilarious that a thread about Wii's price and launch date turned into an argument about Xbox 360 vs PS3.

$250 is a good price. I will pay it.

[31 Flavas]

Heh! Yes, but any time a company says "less than X" they mean X-$1. I'll wager $249 will likely be the price, despite Nintendo's history of a $200 price point. All their competition is a lot more expensive. Why price it lower?Uh... to attract the "non-gamers", being competitive, to make the competition sweat, etc...

Besides Nintendo's Wii console compaired to 360 and PS3 will be very afforabale for Nintendo to manufature. And since the DS/DS Lite and DS Software are quite literally printing money for them, Nintendo can afford to make the Wii hardware very competitivly (nicely) priced for the consumer.

[Lord Dongkey]

I'll never forgive apple for doing this to the world.

*Glances at large 10-ton barrel of worms with loosened lid*

Mmmmm, nah. Not this time.

[TheBrainKills]

Which is better, get an X360 with some 160 titles to choose from or a PS3 with less than 20 titles this coming holiday?

Tough choice, eh?

WTF? this is a Wii thread.

I think that Nintendo was orginally going to price it at $200 but after the PS3 being so expensive and there won't be a Xbox360 price drop, and all the press speculation at the price being $250, they thought hey why not.

[Zanzibar]

Here's the verbatim press release:

Nintendo Announces Wii Information, Worldwide Shipments
(Nintendo of America Inc. - 5/25/06)

Following its overwhelming debut at E3 2006, Nintendo today announced the current fiscal year unit shipment forecase for its new home game system, Wii (TM). Nintendo also confirmed that the price of the Wii system, which incorporates unique freehand control, will not exceed $250 in America, or (Yen)25,000 in Japan. The company plans to ship 6 million systems to retailers around the world between its launch in the fourth quarter of 2006 and the end of its fiscal year on March 31, 2007.

The projections are part of a full-year financial forecast that sees growth of 18 percent in sales globally, based on anticipated continuing strong demand for the Nintendo DS (TM) portable game system, as well as a successful launch for Wii.

The company also said it expects to sell 17 million Wii games in the period. Exact launch dates, identification of the launch library of titles and details on the unique Virtual Console aspect of Wii will be announced soon.

"Not to exceed $250" is expected, I'm hoping $199, but I doubt it - the new controllers are probably chock full of expensive gizmos.

Edit: Say Hello to an X360 price drop in October. Hey Peter Moore, wanna win the next-gen war? Drop the price $50 and include a Memory Card in the Core system when the Wii launches. And, for the Premium system, drop the price $50 and either bump the HDD to 60gb or include a Play 'N Charge kit.

[xoanon]

Actually from what I've heard the Wii controllers are *not* especially expensive to produce. The solid state accelerometers they use are an established, low-cost part. I would expect the controllers to cost roughly what we've been paying for this generation. How many will be included in the package, though, remains to be seen.

[Spigot]

I had been in college during the PS1 era, so I didn't really mess with playing video games. I was too busy doing other things. Once I got to grad school I didn't have quite the social calendar. And considering that I was a Final Fantasy fan, the numerous FF's and other RPG's that I had missed, was FOR ME, a selling point and a reason to invest in the system.

And honestly, though the non-PS1 games the system launched with were fairly weak, very few consoles have great launch titles. The Wii is probably going to be the exception to this rule.
I was in the same boat as you. I'd essentially sat out the PS1 era (I only received an N64 as a wedding gift and that was for Ocarina of Time...) and having backwards compatibility was the selling point for the PS2. I was able to play some fancy new PS2 games on launch day AND the huge pile of PS1 games I'd amassed in the lead up to the PS2 launch. This time around, the PS2 and PS1 backwards compatibility on the PS3 is still a selling point, but not a huge one.

All of this said, the huge backwards compatiblity/Virtual Console capabilities of the Wii are a major reason why I'm excited about it. Sure, I want to play the new Wii titles, but the DS interfacing stuff (whatever that may be) and the enormous library of classic Nintendo/Sega/TG16 games will rock.

[oldjadedgamer]

Sony said 2 million at launch, 2 million by year's end, and 2 million by end of March 2007. 6 million total.

Nintendo said 6 million by end of March 2007.

How exactly does Nintendo's number seem small compared to Sony's, when it's exactly the same?

I read this too, directly from Sony. 6 million by March 07... 2 million at launch then 1 million per month there after.

6 million for both