Yet More PS3 Rumours

[Ludoc]

Gamesindustry.biz (http://www.gamesindustry.biz) sends word of a rumoured Sony press conference next week, a week before GDC.

News of a planned Sony Computer Entertainment press conference on March 15th was leaked by Koei boss Kiyoshi Komatsu, who told press at an unrelated conference in Tokyo about the existence of the event and speculated that "some details about the PS3 might be announced there."
The article also brings up a rumour that PS3's won't even start being built in large numbers until the June.

The full article (http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=15266)

Here's hoping for some concrete info on Sony's next big thing.

[fitbabits]

They will announce the price on April 1, 2006 and release the console on June 6, 2006.

[bKangy]

I suspect they'll admit that Spring 2006 is no longer possible anywhere, let alone Japan.

[Roc Ingersol]

I may be holding a press conference in the middle of next week.
Some details about the PS3 may be announced there.

[Abednigo]

Blah, blah, blah, blah, BLAH!

[Zanzibar]

Jesus - CIRCUIT BOARDS won't be mass-produced until June/July??? After the boards get created, THEN the chips need to be applied, THEN the units need to be assembled...wow. PS3 will be lucky to launch at Christmas in the US.

Unless this COMPEQ is a second or third manufacturer and they've already got teams working on circuit board production. But I highly doubt it.

[gzsfrk]

And so here I support Sony by responding to yet another non-story. Darn my obsessive compulsions! They're supporting the Japanese Devil!

[ruprect]

Well I'm glad they finally have said what the release plan is and how much it will cost us. . . .

Oh, never mind.

I do like the April 1st price anouncement plan though, fitbabits. They can always retract it then with justification.

[emjoi]

Is there even a functioning PS3 in existance?

[Dirty Harry]

Is there even a functioning PS3 in existance?
No not at all, the dev kits are really filled with packing peanuts and moldy cheese.

[Watership]

They're announcing a press event to talk about the possiblity about another press event that might lead to an announcement about a press event to talk about the playstation 3. Maybe.

"Sony: The next generation starts when we say it does."

[Mason]

Anyone taking bets on the press conference containing real information vs expectation management?

The safest move for Sony at this point would be to indirectly fuel the "$2k PS3s will be shipped in 2008" rumors at the press conference. And then when they release the real facts at GDC or E3 (i.e. it'll be late and expensive, but not as bad as people are projecting), suddenly this unpleasant news smells like roses.

This assumes, of course, that Sony isn't actually concealing a terrible console-killing bombshell when it comes to price, date, or features.

[Mason]

No not at all, the dev kits are really filled with packing peanuts and moldy cheese.
He asked a dumb question, but then the dev kits are, last I heard, missing some key components. Blu-Ray, for one. Right now they just have everyone simulating 10x DVD speeds to approximate the load times. Maybe that's changed, but if their dev hardware is still missing one of the PS3's biggest feature-grid checkboxes, it isn't really fair to say that we know of any final hardware.

[Zanzibar]

Anyone taking bets on the press conference containing real information vs expectation management?

The safest move for Sony at this point would be to indirectly fuel the "$2k PS3s will be shipped in 2008" rumors at the press conference. And then when they release the real facts at GDC or E3 (i.e. it'll be late and expensive, but not as bad as people are projecting), suddenly this unpleasant news smells like roses.

This assumes, of course, that Sony isn't actually concealing a terrible console-killing bombshell when it comes to price, date, or features.

While I agree in principle with what you're suggesting, I think any bad news for this upcoming press conference would be dangerous for Sony. Those gamers who are holding off on buying either the X360 or the PS3 until they find out the PS3 launch date would probably then immediately go out and buy an X360 if there's even the slightest hint of high price and/or delay.

[gzsfrk]

He asked a dumb question, but then the dev kits are, last I heard, missing some key components. Blu-Ray, for one. Right now they just have everyone simulating 10x DVD speeds to approximate the load times. Maybe that's changed, but if their dev hardware is still missing one of the PS3's biggest feature-grid checkboxes, it isn't really fair to say that we know of any final hardware.

Spot on... Also, as has been mentioned, there have likewise been suggestions that Sony is having difficulty fitting everything into a reasonable profile, let alone inside the shell they've had behind glass at the last couple game trade shows. So, in a sense, they may well NOT have a functioning PS3, if by PS3 you mean "near approximation of final product".

[absolut taco]

No not at all, the dev kits are really filled with packing peanuts and moldy cheese.
So it's not totally useless after all? ;)

[ben_bot]

They will announce the price on April 1, 2006 and release the console on June 6, 2006.

6-6-6

duh duh DUH!!!

[slink-jadranko]

I can't help but suspect, as bKangy said, that they will announce a delay.
However, I really hope this isn't the case, if just for the fact that it would be incredibly fucking retarded. To have had someone from Sony Europe denounce all the rumours about a delay a week before announcing a delay... it would be seriously stupid. Then again, I know Sony has a history of such idiocy.

I try not to be a Sony fan boy. There's no way I'd buy a Sony audio player of any kind, or even audio/visual equipment, but I still rate the PS2 over the Xbox, if just for the games that are available on it. I hasten to add, that doesn't mean I go around forums slagging off the Xbox. Hell, I own one (and two games for it - Full Spectrum Warrior and Stranger's Wrath).

[KNOTE]

Spot on... Also, as has been mentioned, there have likewise been suggestions that Sony is having difficulty fitting everything into a reasonable profile, let alone inside the shell they've had behind glass at the last couple game trade shows. So, in a sense, they may well NOT have a functioning PS3, if by PS3 you mean "near approximation of final product".

This is correct. There is no functional fully featured PS3 as of today. Some of the standards and specs aren't even complete yet. Not that it takes long to manufacture once they are... but... if you're developing a game on the platform you're pretty annoyed at this point.

[bean19]

The article also brings up a rumour that PS3's won't even start being built in large numbers until the June.

Most buried lead ever?

[bean19]

He asked a dumb question, but then the dev kits are, last I heard, missing some key components. Blu-Ray, for one. Right now they just have everyone simulating 10x DVD speeds to approximate the load times. Maybe that's changed, but if their dev hardware is still missing one of the PS3's biggest feature-grid checkboxes, it isn't really fair to say that we know of any final hardware.

They aren't approximating the Blu-Ray transfer rates there man, that's much faster than Blu-Ray. That's probably the speed at which the Blu-Ray drive will read DVDs.

[Kamalot]

They aren't approximating the Blu-Ray transfer rates there man, that's much faster than Blu-Ray. That's probably the speed at which the Blu-Ray drive will read DVDs.
Are you trying to say that games won't be on bluray? I thought that was the point of having it, that developers would have tons of space for huge art assets to create massive worlds.

I mean, isn't that the claim? Aren't the Sony boys telling us that Xbox isn't a real next-gen gaming platform since it does not have a next-gen disc?

Color me skeptical.

[mister_slim]

They aren't approximating the Blu-Ray transfer rates there man, that's much faster than Blu-Ray. That's probably the speed at which the Blu-Ray drive will read DVDs.
? Are you still assuming the PS3 will have a 1x drive?

[Watership]

Are you trying to say that games won't be on bluray? I thought that was the point of having it, that developers would have tons of space for huge art assets to create massive worlds.

I mean, isn't that the claim? Aren't the Sony boys telling us that Xbox isn't a real next-gen gaming platform since it does not have a next-gen disc?

Color me skeptical.

I think the ps3 vs 360 types might push that PS3 has blu-ray, but i don't recall seeing that every game HAS to have blu-ray. It's an option. Like Most Xbox games were never Dual layer games. They could use the technology, if needed. I don't think it's a requirement.

[emjoi]

For what it's worth, I knew exactly what I was asking.
I do know about the concept of Dev Kits, and I do know that they are often simulators of what the final product might be like.

... and no-one has answered yet "Oh yes, I've seen a PS3"

[Phanto]

I'm really tired of Sony's bullshit, they should have said something.. by now, at the end they will have to said something ;) .

[Mason]

? Are you still assuming the PS3 will have a 1x drive?
Precisely what I was going to respond with. To explain our astonishment, we should point out that at least 1.5x is required to play Blu-Ray movies. The 10x DVD speed was from an article a while back on the PS3 devkit.

Now, I personally hope that Sony would consider Blu-Ray film playback the first thing to cut, if there are problems with price or release date associated with the drives. But I'm not sure how willing they'd be to have the PS3 serve as a "mere" game console.

[bean19]

Are you trying to say that games won't be on bluray? I thought that was the point of having it, that developers would have tons of space for huge art assets to create massive worlds.

I mean, isn't that the claim? Aren't the Sony boys telling us that Xbox isn't a real next-gen gaming platform since it does not have a next-gen disc?

Color me skeptical.

Satire?

Yes. To answer both you and mister_slim, I am assuming that most, if not all, PS3 games will be shipped on DVD, because:

1. Expense - BRx2 would be even more expensive than BRx1 and only BRx1 is required for HD movie watching.

2. Data transfer rate > Storage capacity - Games do not require a huge storage capacity, but they do require a fast data transfer rate in order to stream quickly (streaming is the technology that allows you to travel across GTA's large maps with little or no load times) and to load quickly when load screens are necessary.

DVDx10 transfer rate (PS3) = 13.75 MB/sec
Time to load up 512 MB of data into RAM = 37.2 seconds

DVDx12 transfer rate (X360) = 16.5 MB/sec
Time to load up 512 MB of data into RAM = 31 seconds

BDx1 transfer rate = 4.5 MB/sec
Time to load up 512 MB of data into RAM = 113.8 seconds

BDx2 transfer rate = 9 MB/sec
Time to load up 512 MB of data into RAM = 56.9 seconds

Source (http://repairfaq.ece.drexel.edu/sam/cdfaq.htm#cdccddvd) - Note that I've converted from Megabits to Megabytes as we are all more familiar with Megabytes and this makes the math easier to follow when you don't have to convert from base 8 to base 10.

mister_slim - Note the difference between the BDx2 and the DVDx10

3. Next gen games will only very rarely need more than one DVD to fit the whole game on them as DVDs have very high storage capacity. More than enough for nearly all games. DVDs can store up to 8.5 GB nominally, but this is actually closer to 7.5 GB as some of this space is "wasted". However, if a game is absolutely monstorously large because it has a lot of HD video or what-not. . . like an epic J-RPG or something, then it can easily be separated on to separate DVDs and players can switch out discs as needed. When we did this back with CDs, we had to do so more often than we will with DVDs as there is a huge difference in the ~400 MB of storage on a CD and the 7.5 GB of storage on a DVD. With Final Fantasy VII, I switched out about every ten to twenty hours, and with RE 2, I switched out after completing either the male or female campaigns, so about every three to four hours, but I never minded because that was the end of that version of the game. That is the most average example I can come up with (10-20 hours for games like Final Fantasy) vs. the most frequent example (~3 to 4 hours).

For MMOs, the other genre that likes huge game sizes, the game will be updated with patches, etc. so most of these will be loaded on to the system's hard drive anyway, or at least a portion will be pre-installed to the hard-drive. So you might have one install DVD and one play DVD for these.

The existing single layer Blu-Ray disc can hold up to 27 GB and they will get even larger as time goes by (if they aren't replaced by another storage media before lareger Blu-Ray are wanted).

Some fairly recent games for the PC and their installation size:

Gun - 2.8 GB
Call of Duty 2 - 4 GB
F.E.A.R. - 5 GB
Elder Scrolls: Oblivion - 4.6 GB (http://www.elderscrolls.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=186541)

As you can see, most games fall far beneath what one DVD can handle, even a game that is suppossed to be just enormous like Oblivion.

Some people have mentioned in the past that games grow to fit the hardware's capabilities, and this is definitely true. However, storage capacity is not a big deal. It is so easily gotten around by splitting games on discs or pre-installing portions of the games that it is almost a non-issue. However, data transfer rates are critical. Sony would be shooting themselves in the foot if they planned on making games that use Blu Ray.

Don't worry, though. They aren't planning that, and I think one of the reasons they have been so quiet is that they are going to have a split SKU that allows them to deliver an affordable PS3 that does not use the BR drive. However, I can't back that up with facts like this other stuff. I'm just speculating about the separate SKUs.

[bean19]

Precisely what I was going to respond with. To explain our astonishment, we should point out that at least 1.5x is required to play Blu-Ray movies. The 10x DVD speed was from an article a while back on the PS3 devkit.
HD records and plays back at 28 Mbits/sec transfer rates using the MPEG-2 format.

If you convert back into Megabits, the BRx1 has a data transfer rate of 36 Megabits/sec. That's 8 Mbits more than is needed. Though this isn't actually being wasted as that is more than enough to stream a sound file for director commentaries, etc.

Source (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-definition_video#Recording.2C_compression.2C_and_p rerecorded_media).

[PXG 360]

I heard that the PS3 came out March 3rd, 2003 (3,3,3). You see, what you do, is you divide 666 by two, which gives you three threes. I also heard that it cost $333.33. But the thing is, it was only out for three hours, three days and three seconds. So, what you have to do is to travel back in time. Refer to the URLs below to assist you:

http://www.lifesci.sussex.ac.uk/home/John_Gribbin/timetrav.htm#time_travel_possible

http://www.timetravelfund.com/

I'm sorry for that. It's just that I wanted to point out how things can get so blown out of proportion and totally incorrect. Lets just wait until E3 and wait for Sony to speak for themselves.

[Mason]

Buzz (http://www.blu-ray.com/faq/#2.3), Bean.

Data transfer rate (movie application) 54.0Mbps (1.5x)

If you actually look at the technical specs of BR, they claim everywhere that movie applications will require 1.5x speeds. Everywhere.

Also, remember that Blu-Ray is currently constant linear velocity, while DVDs are constant angular velocity, which gives them a lower speed closer to the inside of the disc.

Read and understand this (http://www.gamespot.com/pages/profile/show_blog_entry.php?topic_id=23916169&user=skektek) page.

The long and short of it is, 2x BR is pretty close to the average speed of 10x DVD. 12x DVD averages close to 3x BR, and it is only at 4x that Blu-Ray surpasses 12x DVD in all scenarios.

At this point in time, whether or not PS3 games will be on Blu-Ray or DVD is an untestable proposition. I think it'd make sense for them to have a mix, to cut costs. But unless Sony is dropping the Blu-Ray drive altogether from the console, it'll be a 2x drive.

And 360 fans can be happy with the fact that the very worst load times they see (on the inner rim of the DVD) will still be about as fast as the one and only loading speed of the PS3. The maximum speed, on the disc's outer rim, will be way above what the PS3 is capable of.

[PXG 360]

Speaking of drives and Xbox 360, I remember how Microsoft made a statement (a few weeks prior to the Xbox 360 launch) that the second edition Xbox 360 would have a built-in HD-DVD drive within. In my opinion, openly proclaiming that your new console is already obselete before it comes out is a moronic move. They are even going to ship out external drives for those of us who have the current edition Xbox 360. The reason why I bring this up, is that I really hope Sony does not fall into the same trap. Just hear what I have to say: Let's say you go to your local game retail outlet and you buy a PS3. And lets assume that it's $500.00. Now, how would you feel if Sony came out with another "version" of PS3, that included a Blu-Ray drive. You would be pretty pissed now, wouldn't you? You essentially bought a console that was both incomplete and obsolete. You also paid the same amount that someone else did, who just so happened to get a little "bonus". We all know that Blu-Ray drives are REALLY expensive for Sony to manufacture (thus, the retail value is increased in order to partially compensate for the loss). Does that seem fair to you? I hope not. Although the Xbox 360 is a good console and will progressively get better as time passes, the marketing and economic actions behind it are quite lackluster in my opion (and I am no economics expert by any stretch of the imagination). I just hope Sony is taking good notes on what is happening.

[Achilles]

Speaking of drives and Xbox 360, I remember how Microsoft made a statement (a few weeks prior to the Xbox 360 launch) that the second edition Xbox 360 would have a built-in HD-DVD drive within. In my opinion, openly proclaiming that your new console is already obselete before it comes out is a moronic move. They are even going to ship out external drives for those of us who have the current edition Xbox 360.Yeah the HD-DVD thing was a pile of nonsense. If they do ship a system with an HD DVD drive replacing the DVD drive it'll be a specialist sku, like those DVD players that could play game cube games, or the PSX. It would simply cost too much, and wouldn't be that big a benefit. I have no idea how Sony’s going to be able to make that many 2x Blu Ray drives for a reasonable price.

[PXG 360]

...It would simply cost too much, and wouldn't be that big a benefit. I have no idea how Sony’s going to be able to make that many 2x Blu Ray drives for a reasonable price.

Based on what we know now, I guess Sony is just going to have to bite the bullet. If PS3 is $500.00, they're going to lose a whopping $400.00 per unit. That really sucks for them. And I thought Microsoft had it bad when they said they were losing $76.00 per Premium Xbox 360.

[bean19]

Mason - We have contrary evidence, so I'm putting this in my "wait and see" folder.

I'm still betting that the PS3 will have a SKU that doesn't have Blu-Ray and that the games will be played on DVDs, and I'm betting that they'll have just a BRx1 (I think they'll encode them to play at the 28 Mbits/sec using the Mpeg-2 coded, thus it will be a "shitty" HD movie player compared to a "real" one).

Probably, since we are discussing multiple things, we'll both get to say "I told you so" when Sony finally starts talking.

[Groo]

Something tells me Sony is going to pull a Saturn with the PS3, and put it out on the shelves way too early.

[Wasson_]

...how can they put it out "early" when basically EVERYONE is complaining about "delays" and it being "overhyped"?

either way,

Personally, I can't decipher anything important or interisting from that article.