Microsoft on Track to Sell Six Million Xbox 360s by End of June 2006

[fitbabits]

Thanks to Next Generation (http://www.next-gen.biz) for the news (http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2358&Itemid=2).

Analyst P.J. McNealy with Amtech Research said in a report today that Microsoft is on track to sell 6 million Xbox 360s by the end of June, and 10-12 million by year-end; expects PS3 announcements soon.

The mid-year forecast is greater than Xbox boss Peter Moore's January predictions of 4-5.5 million sold by the end of June.

McNealy said that although Microsoft had to withdraw its initial 90-day target of 2.7-3 million units sold, he believes it was "likely an inventory issue of 1-2 weeks, making it non-material."

He continued, saying that he is no longer concerned with any potential adverse effects that an Xbox 360 shortage would have on publishers' March-quarter results.

Amtech and McNealy also conducted a survey involving 125 retailers last week. Twenty-six of them had Xbox 360 units in stock, although all but five of them only had the non-hard drive Core units. Stores that did have the $400 Premium Packs late last week sold out of units very quickly.
Also mentioned in the article is speculation of an announcement from Sony regarding a PS3 release date and price, which could come as early as tomorrow.

[Rakael]

I'll beleive that when I see it.

[Megalith]

Uh...how much 360s have been sold as of now?

[ÜberJumper]

I put money down on an order for a premium system yesterday.

[thegameguru]

Good competition always benefits the consumer.. I hope all 3 camps sell 50+ million units.

[johnperkins21]

My wife just gave approval for them to sell one more. Now if only I could find one that was not on Ebay or some ridiculous bundle.

[bapenguin]

wow...no way this is gonna happen. I know they are just inching over the 1 million barrier in North America. 5 million in 4 months? Not unless Halo 3 is coming out in June.

[thegameguru]

wow...now way this is gonna happen. I know they are just inching over the 1 million barrier in North America. 5 million in 4 months? Not unless Halo 3 is coming out in June.

I suspect its simply to Microsoft "get 6 million units shipped or on some form of shelf/warehouse.

Not necessarily in some consumers "hands"

[Nite_Moogle]

6 million worldwide sounds about right.

[dotbomb]

MS 360 math quiz

3 Million Inital sales predicted = 1 Million in real world

6 Million sales predicted = X

Solve for X

[Citizen Philip]

MS 360 math quiz

3 Million Inital sales predicted = 1 Million in real world

6 Million sales predicted = X

Solve for X

x = (imaginary console war + taxable income) / (marketing hype / market interest)

where marketing hype = (xbox marketing + ps3 marketing) / message board epeen.

market interest = (time for porn to load / next game with five million dollar marketing gimmick with crappy movie-related game IP) + the current cost of cocaine

[benig]

I don't even think they will have manufactured 6 million X box 360s by then.

[fitbabits]

I don't even think they will have manufactured 6 million X box 360s by then.
I guess nonsense is better than no sense at all. :rolleyes:

[Serapth]

I guess nonsense is better than no sense at all. :rolleyes:

That is the most confusing thing ive read all day...


I do find this prediction to be a weee bit on the optomistic side purely on the fact that I believe that market is about to enter its weakest time period. Isnt now - summer the worst time of the year for game sales?

[Hellstorm]

MS 360 math quiz

3 Million Inital sales predicted = 1 Million in real world

6 Million sales predicted = X

Solve for X

The answer is Revolution. It's always Revolution.

[Megalith]

I got a question.

Other than a magic 8 ball, how do analysts actually get their information.

[Goronmon]

Other than a magic 8 ball, how do analysts actually get their information.
Their asses?

[Serapth]

I got a question.

Other than a magic 8 ball, how do analysts actually get their information.

Shhhhhh... you just gave away their secret.

Actually it varies, but in alot of cases they are just information gatherers. They talk to the manufacturers ( like flextronic ) the component suppliers ( like ATI ) the logistics companies that ship products from the warehouse. They try to get as much accurate information out of their target as possible, then they speak to and get stats and opinions from resellers and consumers ( thats you and me ). Then using all this information, plus all historical data they can get their hands on, plus lots of questions to the magic 8 ball, they come up with numbers.

Its as much an art as a science, but if an analyst is good they are very valuable.

[Zeal]

THEY PRAY TO KROM.

::bites chicken wing::

[Schnoogs]

Good competition always benefits the consumer.. I hope all 3 camps sell 50+ million units.

Yeah...it would also be great if there were 3 kinds of cars and we have to own all of them to account for all driving scenerios. I would love to have 3 car payments a month because competition rules!!!

Competition is great across a single format...but when the format is whats different amongst the competitors the consumer gets screwed.

[absolut taco]

I want some of what that guy smokes...

[Kelegacy]

I'm starting to wonder why we gamers care about numbers of a console sold. It's like I've had an epiphany over the past weekend, but I wonder why I have cared in the past?

I long for the days of my naivete when I loved games and systems and not companies. Stupid friggin' internet.

[fitbabits]

I'm starting to wonder why we gamers care about numbers of a console sold. It's like I've had an epiphany over the past weekend, but I wonder why I have cared in the past?

I long for the days of my naivete when I loved games and systems and not companies. Stupid friggin' internet.
Two words, Kel - bragging rights.

That and the assurance that the console you just bought is not about to go the way of the Atari Jaguar.

[Kelegacy]

Two words, Kel - bragging rights.

That and the assurance that the console you just bought is not about to go the way of the Atari Jaguar.
Oh, I know that. But why do we need reassurances? Shouldn't the games be enough to satisfy us instead of petting our own egos with corporate numbers?

We gamers fight ridiculous battles with one another over such trivial matters.

[Magnanimous Gnome]

THEY PRAY TO KROM.

::bites chicken wing::


I just wanted to quote the above and note that it is the first time I have ever seen Zeal make a post that was not trolling. GOOD JOB BUDDY! :)




That said, I really doubt that MS will hit that goal. It was optimistic when they set it, and it is REALLY optimistic now.

I'd consider buying a 360 if it wouldn't cost me nearly two months rent for the system, an extra controller, and a few decent games, and if there were a few more games worth buying the system for. That said I'll probably just go with one console this cycle - I just can't afford to support them all when real life calls.

[johnperkins21]

Oh, I know that. But why do we need reassurances? Shouldn't the games be enough to satisfy us instead of petting our own egos with corporate numbers?

We gamers fight ridiculous battles with one another over such trivial matters.

It's not us that needs them. It's the mainstream idiots who watch MTV and American Idol who need to be told what is cool/popular at any given moment. This in turn tells the publishers where the largest pool of profits lie, thus which system to make their game for. Even if you go disagree with the mainstream and enjoy games like Katamari or WarioWare that are niche games, those will usually be found on the platform that has the most users. Thus giving the publishers a better chance of breaking even on a game that only sells to 1% of the installed base.

[CaptSqueeze]

I do find this prediction to be a weee bit on the optomistic side purely on the fact that I believe that market is about to enter its weakest time period. Isnt now - summer the worst time of the year for game sales?

Yeah that's a myth. When there were an estimated 5 million "casual gamers" and 1 million "hard core" gamers, Christmas was really the only time to sell games. The blockbusters and the stinkers were all grouped in here. The blockbusters to maximize sales, and the stinkers because maybe grandma would buy Timmy a game for Christmas if she liked the box cover enough.

Gaming has evolved. These days there are probably 20 million casual gamers, 10 million "not quite hardcore" gamers and 5 million hardcore gamers. Hell even my GRANDMOTHER plays games online these days. Bookworm drives her insane, and she loves every moment of it.

So nothing really releases pre-E3 hype time, and gamers get bored. Bored, with no games to buy and money burning holes in their pockets. So with this being a "slower" part of the year (since most salespeople in this industry suck and couldn't actually SELL anything rather than just fill orders, so they still believe that anything Non-Christmas is a slow season), I think Microsoft has a very real chance of selling a large number of units. Even more if Sony doesn't come thru with their PS3 this year like some analysts are predicting.

Look at it another way... Sony planned to release the PS3 away from Christmas. Do you think they consider this a "slow time" or a "perfect time"? I would guess the latter.

[rein]

I'm starting to wonder why we gamers care about numbers of a console sold. It's like I've had an epiphany over the past weekend, but I wonder why I have cared in the past?

I long for the days of my naivete when I loved games and systems and not companies. Stupid friggin' internet.

-AMEN...

..and my message is too short.

[JazGalaxy]

Good competition always benefits the consumer.. I hope all 3 camps sell 50+ million units.

That is bad logic, and I wish people would put the word out about it. Good competition benefits the consumer, sure, but when it comes to games competition among console developers generally means less competition among games which is BAD for consumers.

Think about my high school. We had over 2000 kids in my graduating class. The validictorian had to be well worthy of his/her slot because they were competing against hundreds of children who were just as smart and just as qualified. Everyone had to become better to fight for that spot.

Then look at the rest of the school district where schools consist of anywhere from 100 to 500 senior students. The validictorian candidates had to fight FAR less for their spot because there was not nearly as much competition.

Having a 3 successful consoles on the market and a set number of games available for the market each year, the games disperse among the consoles generally in a fashion that creates little to no competition. How many True Crimes sold JUST because there was no GTA on gamecube or Xbox? How many Killzones sold just becuase there was no Halo on PS2? How many Blinx's sold just because there is no Mario on Xbox?

Gamers do not need, and should not want, a bunch of consoles on the market. It's not good for games.

[Schnoogs]

I'm sure the game creators care...why make a game for a system that has too few units to ensure that you break even.

[Bydo_Empire]

THEY PRAY TO KROM.
As a resident Conan novel freak, I feel compelled to mention that it's Crom - C-R-O-M.

I don't think 6 million worldwide is out of line. I'm sure their manufacturing will step up as the year progresses.

[DoubleUranium]

The answer is Revolution. It's always Revolution.

Very true. All those Revolution in game screenshots I've been looking at have really got me drooling.

[Royal Fool]

Very true. All those Revolution in game screenshots I've been looking at have really got me drooling.

Crap, my sarcasm meter broke. Thanks alot. :(

[Pumped'Up]

Microsoft on Track to Sell Six Million Xbox 360s by End of June 2006
Obviously a news flash 33 days a wee bit early that was meant for April 1st. :D

Pumping out 6 million units will increase/amplify their existing manufacturing problems. News title should be corrected to:

Microshaft on Track to Sell Six Million 360 Lemons by End of June 2006

[The Letter 3]

"Also mentioned in the article is speculation of an announcement from Sony regarding a PS3 release date and price, which could come as early as tomorrow."

Wow, that analyst is right on track. And if Sony doesn't announce info about the PS3 tomorrow, they could the day after that, or the day after that, but not three days after the day after that day. Sony would never be that foolish.

[fitbabits]

Obviously a news flash 33 days a wee bit early that was meant for April 1st. :D

Pumping out 6 million units will increase/amplify their existing manufacturing problems. News title should be corrected to:

Microshaft on Track to Sell Six Million 360 Lemons by End of June 2006
Some people need to just give it a rest. :rolleyes:

[ÜberJumper]

So... earlier I posted that I was ready to buy my Xbox360. The call came today, so I rushed out to grab it.

Brought it home and after a while, hooked it up to my HDTV. Got my live account all imported, started checking out the new services, very impressed.

Go to download a game from the Xbox Marketplace. AWESOME! A gauntlet demo!

Download demo, play two levels, and try to exit back to live arcade. System starts acting funny. Totally lagging. Then locks up as it's trying to log back into live. I power off the console, and restart it.

SYSTEM ERROR, contact xbox support. Error code E 67.

Call support, go through some troubleshooting steps. Turns out that with the hard drive plugged in, it errors out.

They've got me running a DVD for a couple hours, we'll see if that locks it up. Otherwise, it's probably just a fucked up HDD.

*sigh*

Don't buy an Xbox360 yet.

[Schnoogs]

Once again I hit every major store in town for a 360...zip...zilch....zero...nada

How in gods name are they gonna hit that mark when they cant even sell one more to me?

[Citizen Philip]

I'm starting to wonder why we gamers care about numbers of a console sold. It's like I've had an epiphany over the past weekend, but I wonder why I have cared in the past?

I long for the days of my naivete when I loved games and systems and not companies. Stupid friggin' internet.

Insecurity. You live in a culture of status, among console gaming the only thing you have to show for it are:

your choice of games and your console.

People just can't enjoy what they have, no.. they have to put down everyone else's choice to make theirs seem more relevent. Or important or something.

Thanks to the "growth" of the gaming industry, games are bought and sold like so much meat at market. Different flavours, different styles, different stores.

Your only choice for pure gaming goodness is 3 consoles + HDTV and one computer.

What fun!

[Rendelius]

I can't talk about the US, but I can assure you that the situation here in Europe is a bit different. There are a lot of 360s in stores here, and my observations are that people are buying it like crazy. The 360 shortage over here is over, and the same is true for accessories (they were harder to come by than the consoles).

[Vandenh]

>The 360 shortage over here is over, and the same is true for accessories (they were harder to come by than the consoles).

Not here in Belgium. People are still picking them up faster than MS can stock them.

Anyway... 10M end of the year should not be a problem.

[Roc Ingersol]

I long for the days of my naivete when I loved games and systems and not companies. Stupid friggin' internet.
It's not a new thing, or an internet thing. Brand loyalty is about as stupid as corproate loyalty and about as old. Having grown up and lived in Detroit I can tell you that Microsoft vs Nintendo vs Sony ain't got shit on Ford vs GM vs Chrysler or 'Buy American'.

In my youth, I remember having the Atari vs Coleco argument with my cousins; and later, Nintendo vs Sega. It wasn't attachment to particular systems either, it was some dumbass association with anything that came out of those companies. It was dumb, but we were kids. On the plus side, almost everyone grows up at some point.

But on the internet someone, somewhere, will always be 12 years old.

[Roc Ingersol]

THEY PRAY TO KROM.
I have no tongue for it.

[Dracula-X]

MS 360 math quiz

3 Million Inital sales predicted = 1 Million in real world

6 Million sales predicted = X

Solve for X
The only thing worth solving... is THE RIDDLE OF STEEL, old slut!

(It's all Zeal's fault! *runs away*)

[Schnoogs]

The only thing worth solving... is THE RIDDLE OF STEEL, old slut!

(It's all Zeal's fault! *runs away*)

I thought The Riddle of Steel is that although steel is strong, flesh is stronger.

[DreamSlider]

Oh, I know that. But why do we need reassurances? Shouldn't the games be enough to satisfy us instead of petting our own egos with corporate numbers?

We gamers fight ridiculous battles with one another over such trivial matters.

While games should be enough to satisfy us, they are not always the whole picture... it's kind of like love... Take the Dreamcast for example. In my mind, a far superior product to the PS2 which I loved to death (DC), had awesome games and everything minus EA. Sadly, the games were not enough to keep that ship afloat. A combination of lack of support from EA and Sega doing their (at the time) recent "lets abandon our hardware" jig led to the untimely demise of this great system. I love it so much that I still pull it out to play, even though I have xbox/360 & ps2. Great games for that, but because it didn't sell extremely well, Sega had to abandon it before its time.

[MosBen]

I'm certainly no expert, as I imagine nobody here is, but if they're already closing in on three million worldwide and the main limiting factor has been manufacturing shortfalls, it seems reasonable to me that if they get their manufacturing up to speed they could at least get close to 6 million by the end of June. Don't they also have a couple territories that still haven't launched yet (Austrailia I thought)?

[Dracula-X]

I thought The Riddle of Steel is that although steel is strong, flesh is stronger.
That is what Thulsa Doom subscribed to, at least. However, Thulsa's flesh could not save his own head from being expertly severed by steel, in the end.

[Citizen Philip]

That is what Thulsa Doom subscribed to, at least. However, Thulsa's flesh could not save his own head from being expertly severed by steel, in the end.

But that was Conan, who is a man but also made of steel.

Starmetal, I believe it is called. I think the specific ore is T-101.

[thegameguru]

Gamers do not need, and should not want, a bunch of consoles on the market. It's not good for games.

guh? whats the incentive if the market is dominated by one console to ever update or innovate?

So.. wait.. we'd be stuck in 16 bit world for ever (for example)? With no competition whats the sense of releasing new hardware? The "one" company would make more money simply selling licenses for each title sold from the pubs/devs.

You go back to your Bizzaro world! Superman no like!